Dakling

I add quite a few miles to the clock every week and was wondering if anyone has given any thought to selling their CBR yet?

I'm wondering when people think the best time to sell is...

My guess is the CBR would be good for lots of km. If well maintained my guess is you would get 100k km before you need a major rebuild.

On the other hand I will be looking to buy one in Sept. or Oct., if you have an ABS version that has never been down.

Both rubber and palm oil are tied to the price of oil. Both should continue to trend upwards as the global recovery gains strength. We may never see oil below $100/bbl again for any sustained length of time, unless some new technology emerges to replace it. There may be some future minor reversals if things in the middle east improve significantly (Libya, Yemen, Sudan, etc.) but if these insurrections spread to Saudi there will be a huge upward swing and I wouldn't be surprised to see oil spike to $150/bbl. Rubber and palm oils would follow that trend though at a slower rate.

On the supply side, natural rubber production is not expected to keep up with demand. There is a significant portion of synthetic rubber that could be replaced with natural rubber if there was enough natural rubber available. New areas that can sustain rubber production are being planed with rubber (China, India, Laos, Issan), while some traditional area are replacing it with new crops. The success of palm oil is a contributing factor to this as in some areas (Malaysia and South Thailand and possibly Indonesia), many farmers are choosing to replace rubber with palm oil.

Conventional food crops should also continue to trend upwards as more and more areas that currently grow food crops turn to bio-fuel or rubber or some other higher return crops. My guess is that labour costs will also continue to trend upwards though and it may become more and more difficult to find cheap labour in the mid to long term. It will be interesting to see if migration in Thailand reverses, it could be possible that the urban poor from Issan may begin to return to farming if margins improve.

The 2 things that seem to most directly influence rubber prices are price of oil and tire production. I wouldn't expect to see either of those reverse until the next recession, in 5-10 years.

Granted I don't have a crystal ball up my arse or nothing so your guess is as good as mine.

historical rubber prices

That damned elusive Black CBR 250 with ABS

After seeing you ride I think ABS is a must!!!!!

Hello.

its good to know the price is going up, we have 8 ries of trees near khon kaen, almost about 6 years old and due to not looking after it well for the first 4 years we are looking to start cutting in about a year,

can you guys give me some tips on how to maximize production, and income from this, could this give me a good life there in thailand, as in financially,

i am currently in the uk,

me and the missus know almost zero about rubber, anything about growing, extracting, preparing storing selling, etc.. could be good, any websites, links, tutorials, advice from corrent farmers, or maybe some contact from a current falang grower, that i can visit on my next trip there could be fantastic.

many thanks in advance,

I am just getting into this myself and trying to learn the ropes so take what I say with a grain of salt but.......

8 rai wont be near enough for you to live off unless you figure you will cut the trees yourself (which you are not legally allowed to do). Even then it would be a meager existence

110 kl? Did you mean kg or do you mean equivalent dry kg in liquid form or something? A kiloliter is quite a bit of latex (1000 l per kl).

If you change radius of front wheel/tire combo it will throw the speedo out of whack. Give a cop some cash to bring a radar gun and clock you to see your real speed. Granted the gun must be calibrated properly too. Just be sure he doesn't hit you with a ticket after the test.

I wonder if odometers are out as much, never really thought about it before but I wonder if they are calibrated better.

I would love to take a swing at Tony but i wont, but i think that in the past he wast just crazy about speeds and now he is super crazy. He just evolved from thinking 160kmh is normal on a Thai road to 200+ kmh is normal. Its called progress.

I don't condone dangerous riding but the video didn't appear to be at that high of a speed. The yellow line wasn't blurred and the lean angles weren't dramatic. The camera near the ground makes the ride look faster than reality and the curves likely had better visibility from the riders perspective.

I used to get up to 270 km/hr (indicated) on my old CBR 954 but that was on barren wide open roads with the greatest risk being that of hitting a dear. I wouldn't try it on a Thai road in general (plus I am older fatter and slower now). Speed is definitely a factor in many crashes but is not always that dangerous. The passing didn't look that bad to me either.

Granted this all has little to do with the CBR250 which appears to be a nice little sporty utility bike. Definitely not a super bike or anything but it looks like it might be a fun little ride.

Not likely relevant but at home on the farm in the west we have a brush cutter that attaches to the 3 point hitch on the tractor. It's called a bush hog squealer, had a bunch of slip clutches that made a racket, hence the name.

It's brilliant, takes down brush and small trees near the size of your wrist. Don't remember the manufacturer but it was bright red, maybe a Massy? Doubt it's available in Thailand but this thread brought it back to memory.

That's always an option though I am more interested in giving it a shot. My wife and I have already discussed selling the land if things go sideways. Thus far I am having fun with it, when it is no longer fun we will look at selling. I don't plan on this being my support in my old age or anything, I am pretty well sorted as far as that goes. This rubber endeavor is more something to keep the in-laws busy and to give me something to do. If it turns out to be a nice little supplemental earner on the side that's just a bonus. Having said all that I do like to do things the right way when I can which is why I got involved in this forum amongst other things.

In my efforts to further educate myself, I found a couple of online articles about rubber production people may or may not be interested in. Thought I would post the links just in case.

Thesis on small monocrop rubber holdings

Thesis on rubber farms in East and Northeast Thailand

Paper on immiture rubber tree practices in Vietnam

Paper on intercropping mature trees with low light livestock forage

Photos of a family rubber operation in Rayong

Odd responce paper re: rubber farms in NE Thaialnd.

Another Issan based paper

Rubber technology developments in issan

A guys blog from Udon Thani with some homegrown rubber economics.

Some of these have limited value (the technology one for instance), and I hope the guy with the blog doesn't mind my linking to it. In any event I hope some folks find some value in these links I generally found a new learning or two in most of them. On the other hand I don't really have a clue what I am on about ........

Thanks again on the input, I didn't know about the training courses but it makes sense.

I am pretty much decided that I want to go forward with the plantation. I will be doing my best to keep costs down up front, but we shall see how it all goes.

I would like to take you up on your kind offer of a tour at some point but I am uncertain when I am going to be back in Thailand. I will try get out your way sometime in the new year.

Currently my primary involvement is as the ATM but I intend to get more involved once I am in the country. My primary concern in the short term is to keep the tree count per rai to a reasonable level as local wisdom appears to be to plant them much denser than recommended. My plan to try control that is to only provide enough cash to buy 75 trees per rai. I hope to not learn everything the hard way but I am sure there will be a few lessons along the way.

Hi there

Won't get into this too deep as most of what you ask has been covered a dozen times on this forum. First forget the rice paddy, waste of time and money unless you are going to spend big fixing the soil and raising the level. 2nd by the sound of it you will not be there to take care of the place. If your wifes family is left in charge, no matter how honest, loyal and trustworthy they are, they will do things the Thai way not the right way. Then you will get Thai returns, not good well run plantation returns. Just one other thing and I read this often that the family will take care of the trees so that after 7 years they can tap and get a share, if they are so keen to tap rubber for 40% they can come here and tap. I am 2 tappers short and am not the only plantation that can;t get tappers. Think hard before you start spending. Jim

Thanks for the response,

I'll do my best to reply to your points in order.

• I understand that this has all been covered in the forum and I used the forum as a resource to develop my little financial profile. I was hoping that folks could offer insight to see if I had gone drastically wrong in any of my assumptions. The information I have uncovered to date though searching this and other forums has been pretty variable and also inconsistent in the use of terms and units. I also understand that no one can give definitive answers as things will vary based on local rainfall, soil types, land gradients, operational inefficiencies, etc, etc, etc,
• The 10 rai field where the rice has been grown is not actually a rice paddy, or at least not a conventional one. It is not low-lying nor does it have a perimeter berm/dyke/levee. I have no idea why it was used for rice before and I am not certain that it actually was. We only just purchased that field last month. Soil seems reasonably good but I am sure it has been played out nutrient wise in the past.
• I intend on moving back to Thailand in the new year and will be working in the Bangkok area. I intend on retiring around the same time as the trees will mature to the point of being tapped so at that point I could up my time commitment significantly, if required. I'll likely be looking for something to keep me busy anyhow.
• The tapping issue is a bit more complicated as currently only one family member has any experience tapping trees. He has been working as a labourer on a rubber farm in the south of Thailand for years and is just now being taught how to tap. He seems to do about an 8 month on, 4 month off rotation in the south though that seems variable. He and his wife already have 6 rai of trees planted that are currently 2 years old and appear to be doing well. The plan is that over the next 7 years, while our trees are growing, he will teach the rest of the family how to do it. I think that one of the problems with tapping is that no owners want to take the risk on inexperienced tappers so it is difficult to get that initial experience. There are 6 brothers and brothers in law who are keen to do the tapping and countless cousins who would also jump at the chance but none have ever done it. Thankfully the new tappers can all learn and practice on the BIL's trees in 5 years.

As far as spending money goes, I am hoping the future costs over the next few years wont be too excessive. I am thinking 150k baht for trees (34 rai * 75 trees/rai * 45 baht/tree +10% replanting + 25k planting labour), and about 50k baht/year for fertilizer. All the labour should be free until we start tapping. I have told the family they can intercrop the trees for the first 3 years after they are planted with trees, in return for looking after the trees until they start to produce. We have already discussed that the trees take priority over the intercrop though and that they can't put anything like cassava in that would starve the trees of nutrients and water.

If you are willing to train the tappers I may have some interested hands for you, not sure how many would want to relocate though as they seem to be homebodies and most are married with young kids.

Still looking for feedback, opinions, advice.....

Is your land clear ? what did it have on it before ? whats its soil base ? Water anywhere ?

Bung the answers to the last line and you will get a clearer answer from the other growers

13 rai had cassava last year but laid fallow a long time before that. 11 Rai laid fallow a while, just cleared it of small scrub trees. 10 rai has been used for rice forever, likely a bit tired but I plan on putting cassava on it this year and rubber next year.

Soil has not been tested yet, reddish brown sandy/silty red soil. Seems to pack in solidly (silty) but I think sandy enough to have adequate porosity. Don't think it is too clayey as is doesn't slime up to bad when wet. Mostly hoping about this assessment though since I haven't had it tested and my ole' eyeball has been fooled before (not in Thailand right now to get testing done).

No access to water, no boreholes or wells. The 13 rai plot is quite distant from water sources, the other 21 is close to water but no direct access to it.

I was thinking of 10+ year old trees for the 1kg/month of dry latex target, I understand the trees need to mature before they hit max production but I am not sure what the production curve looks like. For instance, is a 7 year old tree at 50% or 70% of full production?

I hear ya on the rubber price but my guess is that by the time I am ready to tap, it will be 80 baht/kg min. I think oil prices are likely gonna climb steadily over the next 10 years to over $150 per barrel and rubber/latex should closely follow that. As Tata motors and their ilk start to provide the masses of India and China with vehicles things will get interesting on the supply side for rubber and other oil based products. I figure rubber and bio-fuel crops will do well going forward.

Thanks for the feedback....glad to see my numbers aren't totally out to lunch other than the current prices.

Hi all, I am new to the farming forum but have been lurking quite a while. I was hoping those experienced with rubber farming would be able to a look at my plans and point out any glaring errors in my assumptions.

My wife and I have about 34 rai of land in Sisaket. The land is in 3 different plots, one is 13 rai, the second is 11 rai and the last is 10 rai. We are planning on planting rubber trees on the first two plots this year (24 rai), and will plant the last 10 rai with rubber trees next year.

We intend on going with the RRIM 600 clones and it is looking like we will have to pay 45 baht/tree for this years planting. The relatives are keen on doing 6m x 3m spacing, but I am pushing for a 7m x 3m spacing, the first of many disagreements I am sure. While the trees are young I am intending on using one round of manure and one round of chemical fertilizer per year but may change that to 2 rounds of chemical fertilizer per year once the trees are older. Once trees are producing it will definitely be 2 rounds of chemical fertilizer per year.

The wife’s family will be managing the operation for the most part put thankfully they do listen to me for the most part. Granted they occasionally think that I am a bit nutty, with farang ideas and occasionally feel the need to “adjust” execution of plans to save me from my folly. I have no fears about the family’s honesty or work ethic but their business acumen leaves much to be desired.

I have put together the following numbers based on my review of posts on this forum and a few other sources. Please take a look and let me know if I have screwed things up. To be honest, the returns look high to me but I would be ok with only 50-75% of the returns calculated below. My main goal is to help my wives family felp themselves out of poverty over time, if I make a return on investment it would be a nice bonus.

Once all the trees are producing for a few years would the below be achievable?

34 rai at 7m x 3m spacing = 34 x 75 trees = 2,550 trees

1 kg dry latex / tree / month = 2,550 kg latex / month

8 months of cutting / year = 20,400 kg latex / year

80 baht / dry kg = 1,632,000 baht / year

50% of production to cutter workforce -816,000 baht/year

Net to me minus 50% of operating costs (fert. etc) ~ 750,000 baht/year

Sorry for the long first post, all input appreciated.

A bit too late with this post I see, as you already bought the Ford open cab. I would be leery of that design as the rear opening doors were quite popular in North America until people all started to have problems with them. The lack of a B Pillar makes the cab weak to twisting motions like driving over uneven ground, think of having one front tire up on a curb kinda thing. Next thing you know the doors stop closing tightly and you get lotsa wind noise, rain leaks, etc.

My friend in Canada had a dodge ram with the over the top 7L cummings diesel and when he would hit it you could see the truck twist slightly. Unnerving to say the least. He had constant issues trying to get the doors to close right and had regular intermittent rain leaks.

I hope they have that fixed for your Ford or at least that you have no problems with it, but I don't think I would buy one.

Just1Voice wrote:

So, after the discussion we both agreed that, overall, for now, the 150 would be best. So we ordered the tri color and it will be here sometime this week.

I think that is brilliant. I like the way that you actually thought about how you would use the bike before you purchased it.

Too often folks buy more bike than they need. Nothing wrong with too much bike if the money is not important to you and it is a toy or something you want for fun.

I like the practical approach since I don't want to ride like an #$$hole anymore and the more sedate the bike, the less I want to ride to fast..

One suggestion though, take a very close look at the tires and consider upgrading them if they are similar to the old crap tires that came on the old CBR150. Get the biggest softest tires that will fit the rim without rubbing on swing-arm, chain etc.

Enjoy the new bike, my guess is you will find its seating position the easiest on your back, cruiser style bikes are often harder on your back as you sit up too much and shocks are transmitted straight up your spine.

Sorry going a bit off topic (I will get back to 250's at the end) and not sure how to quote properly.......

ThunderBird wrote>>About Bros project and I am not sure what a Firehawk is. What you could do with a bros and what slides right in is the engine from an Africa Twin 750.

(EDIT: Sorry brain fart, the VTR was the firestorm, not the fire hawk)

(EDIT #2: Double brain fart, the thing was a dam_n 1000....not sure why I remember it as a 750...oh well guess it likely wont fit in a BROS too well)

Firehawk is the North American name for the not particularly popular VTR750, a 750cc 90degree VTwin Honda released mid 90's in North America. Not a real high end powerplant but it is modern with fuel injection and 4 valves/cyl. Not to be confused with the much higher end RVT1000 V-Twin. I am just thinking that the actual engine case is likely the same size as an older 650 V-twin and might be a near bolt in with some electrical giggery and mount mods.

I am thinking that replacing a single with a twin as you propose would be problematic isn't the frame central down tube is in the way? Cant think of a single without one and personally wouldn't get into frame mods as I wouldn't know what I was doing. At this point I wouldn't want to get into an older or modified 2 stroke as I really don't want to wrench that much anymore. I am getting kinda lazy in my old age. I had a buddy who bought a new NSR400 when they first came out we were all on 750s at the time and thought he was an idiot, after all it sounded like a lawn mower.....that was until he dove under me in a corner and made me look like I was a tool. I was never the fastest in my groups anyhow but I could always keep up, I'm not a natural or gifted rider but you pick shit up in 25+ rears or riding sport bikes.

Thaichiplanet wrote>>You do touch on a very interesting point in having a bike for every occasion. I agree with your selection of new bikes available in Thailand (probably take the fairing version of the ER6N though)

I thought about the fairing version but to be honest the wind buffeting doesn't bother me that much and since I always ride with boots, jeans and gloves and a mesh jacket I usually find the extra air on my chest and upper arms is cooling. I am almost always a bit too warm when riding in Thailand. Gotta admit I did look like a tool on my old CBR150 with my mildly armoured Sidi boots, mesh jacket with full inserts, armoured gloves and a full face helmet. On the other hand I crashed my CBR150 4 times in 1 year riding like an @$hole and my gear definitely saved me a pile of skin. Granted on the one day I went out with cowboy boots jeans T-shirt and gloves I got caught between a swerving taxi and a parked pickup at about 60KM/hour. Thank god I had my gloves on as I wore through them saving my torso from road rash. Gloves are a must...you always put your hands down first.

Ok back on topic to CBR stuff

Thaichiplanet wrote>>The good thing is the CBR250 is running a 4.00" rear rim compared to the Ninja's 3.50", so a 150/60 should sit more comfortably on it. Though maybe some would argue (rightly or wrongly) that a bigger tyre on the CBR250 is over-tyre-ing it! The ABS is a god-send for a rider like me!

Bigger rim size is almost always a good thing, sure a bigger tire is heavier and may not turn in as quick but contact patch is everything. In my opinion you really cant over tire a bike for road use unless you end up getting a silly too flat camber drag tire or some nonsense like that. Rear tire width is nice and great for show but a nice big front rim is what I really want for most BKK riding. I credit at least 2 of my wipeouts to $#!t stock tires on my old CBR. On one accident I swear I grabbed a handful of front brake (in a linear, progressive fashion of course) only to lose the front tire, recovered and repeated 3 times before ending up between the taxi and the pickup. If I had a grippier (softer compound) larger contact patch tire I think I would have avoided the accident. ABS also would have helped as my skidding the front then recovering then re-skidding again wasted valuable breaking time on skidding(50% braking effectiveness) and recovering (0% braking effectiveness). You should be able to completely unload the back tire when you grab a handfull of front break without skidding the front tire if you are on a reasonable surface and you have ok tires. In other words your back tire should basically have almost 0% of the weight on it in a panic stop. a big grippy front is a must for real world riding. I will ride a rear down to the cords depending on the situation (NOT RECOMMENDED) but my front is always a quality tire and is replaced at the wear markers or before. One last comment on the ABS and linked breaks, I think they are a great thing for street bikes and would definitely spend the money to get it. Sure at the track you may not be able to set up for a twisty as well with those breaks, you may intentionally want to slide the bike a bit setting up for a corner but for the real world 99% of the time you will be happy you have them. It is the unexpected stuff that they save you ass on, that dam_n dog running out, the pothole when the sun is in your eyes that you see at the last second, the @$hole on your side of the road mid way through a blind corner. Even the best riders can dump the front when startled, when tired after a long ride etc. ABS wont save you from everything but its a tool in the toolbox.

The truth is that the CBR250 is what it is. A sporty little standard that will get you around with no muss and no fuss with good ergo's and good build quality. It is not going to compete against an exotic bike or a "proper" sport bike (whatever that means to you), but that isn't its target. It will be reliable, cheap to run, fast enough to take on the highway with out being constantly overtaken, easy to get around traffic on (though the 150 might be better). Is it the perfect bike.....no, is it a good bike that will meet the needs of its market.....I think so. Just wait it may be the next thing that Thai kids will be dragging with bicycle tires and straight pipes.....oh and dont forget the neon kit that makes it much faster!

Ride on....sorry if this came off as pretentious or anything. Just my opinion, feel free to differ. Worlds got room for all of us...(well so far anyhow).

Oh and thanks for the welcome

After reading this thread I decided to add my useless opinion to the many others here. I do agree that the CBR250 is likely to steal sales from the Kawi 250. After all who in their right mind thinks a 250 is a "real" sport bike anyhow. Having said that while I think the 250 is likely to be successful, I think the 150 will do even better. Thailand is a very price sensitive market and don't forget "whitey" is a small part of the larger market. At the end of the day these companies are out to make money and "niche" bikes are generally not that profitable. Would I buy an NSR400 in good shape? Absolutely! Would a re-release of the NSR400 make Honda much money? Probably not.

Personally I am thinking of buying 3 different bikes when I get back to Thailand, a step through for the missus and for mooban mobility, a CBR150 for Bangkok's traffic mayhem and an ER650N for day trips and site seeing. If I decide that it is a bit too silly to buy all 3 I would consider the CBR250 as a possible compromise between the 150 and the 650. The 250 "ninja" is not appealing at all since it is no closer to a proper ZXR than the baby CBR is to a proper CBR___RR; the upright seating on the CBR and what appears to be better 2 up ergo's would be more important to me. Neither bike has a "proper" suspension, my guess is both come with shit tires (ninja may win here), both will need to be clutched mercilessly to launch so really discussing their sporting merits is kinda mute. Its like dragging a stock Honda city against a stock Toyota Yaris, might be fun, once......but who are you really kidding about performance? Being cheaper and having the linked brake system that I loved on my old VFR800Fi would just be icing on the cake.

As far as buying a "real" sport bike, those days are in my past, my last "real" bike was a CBR954, but if I was to buy another it would be either something interesting in a 90 degree VTwin, or maybe a triple. Buying an old Hawk/Bros and doing it up would also be a nice ride.......in fact I wonder if you could drop a 750 firehawk engine into an old Bros/Hawk, now that would be a nice ride.....hrmmmmm need to look into that......

One other comment I would like to throw out their as a public service message, if you want better braking, #1 get better tires, #2 learn how to use your brakes, #3 look into linked brakes or ABS. In that order!!!! (ok maybe #1 and #2 should be swapped for the clueless).

Ride on brotha

Wow look at that lurker since 2008 and this is my 3rd post ......

Thanks for the prompt replies all, exactly what I was hoping to hear!

Hi all, my first post here so please be kind

I currently hold a work permit with an extension of stay until Sept. 29, 2008. This was obtained on a multiple entry 12 month non-immigrant B visa that has an expiration date of April 28, 2008.

I intend on terminating my employment around March 30, 2008. At this point I believe my work permit and extension of stay will be terminated.

Will I need to get a new visa or is my original multi entry non-imm B still vaid? In other workds if I go to the border before April 28, 2008, will I get a 90 day stay stamp or a 30 day tourist stamp?

I have been told I will get the 90 day stamp by others but I am looking for second, third, etc. opinions to ease my level of tension.