wensiensheng

Who knows indeed. But it must be a fairly high number I think. I’m guessing over 50% anyway. The trouble is, there just doesn’t seem to be any analytical work being done on how successful the vaccination level is proving to be. Pure case numbers are really not the issue, symptomatic hospitalizations and deaths are where the focus should be.

To be fair, the case numbers have very little to do with the sandbox. It’s just delta at work.

What we all want to know is whether the people who died had been vaccinated or not. And if so, when were they vaccinated and with what vaccine. That way we would know whether the vaccines are providing protection from serious illness or not. if they have not been vaccinated, or only very recently, the argument for opening due to the high level of vaccinations is maintained. If they have been fully vaccinated, then it undermines the whole vaccine protection argument. If they have been fully vaccinated with sinovac…….well I won’t go there. the lack of transparency is appalling. Even worse, from everything they say and pretty much everything they do, I’m not sure they even have the information. That is scary.

So disappointing that opening schools doesn’t even rank in the top 5 most important issues in Phuket. instead it’s tourists, tourists, tourists. Meanwhile the sea gypsy village at Rawai has just been locked down as a result of tests carried out on 31st August. Only took 10 days. haphazard doesn’t begin to describe government policy in Phuket. https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/phuket-meeting-urges-national-government-on-covid-19-changes

Hmm, more testing to find asymptomatic cases so that the people can isolate and not infect others. an interesting new concept for Thailand, but I’m sure I have heard it somewhere before. Ah right, I’ve got it now, in most of the developed world.

Check out the article in my post above

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/10/why-are-covid-cases-so-high-when-vaccination-is-widespread.html I thought this was quite an interesting article on case counts post high vaccinations levels

The lack of transparency is stunning.

The stats seem to miss the most important point. The claim is that about 80% of Phuket is double jabbed. That being the case, the one and only important stat is how many hospitalizations are there with severe symptoms? If very few, the vaccines are working and there is very little gained by restrictions. The island should be properly open. If there are still a lot of cases with severe symptoms, then there is a bigger vaccine problem.

For goodness sake. WHAT about schools? Isn’t it at all important to them. SMH

Try going in and out of Phuket. That particular inter provincial travel is a nightmare. and, sigh, if things are going so swimmingly, when will it be ok for schools to open? If they put 10% of the effort into school Covid safety, as they put into tourists, their kids would be being educated as we speak.

Get vaccinations to a decent level, THEN open up the country. in other words, do steps one and two, then three. if they don’t dare to open schools, don’t mess around with tourists.

Yup. The date on the colander doesn’t matter, the number of people vaccinated does. And Thailand isn’t there yet.

I think the same could be said of the UK. But…….if everyone who wants a vaccine, has had a vaccine, that then leaves those who don’t want it, for whatever reason. And, as you say, the virus will march on. And those who have been vaccinated will, if science proves correct, suffer severe symptoms in a very small percentage and those who choose not to be vaccinated will suffer severe symptoms in a higher percentage. For the latter group, that is their choice. the same can be said of, say whooping cough. Those who choose to vaccinate their children are very rarely troubled, those who choose not to vaccinate their children, suffer in higher numbers. I think my overall point is that this virus will march on. Vaccinated, unvaccinated, the virus will continue to march on. So at what point does society decide that the virus no longer requires it to take such measures as closing schools and closing down economies? Is it when absolutely no one dies from the virus? I think that’s unrealistic and if one compares Covid to other viruses, the others are not targeted for zero deaths. I don’t pretend that I know what the answer is, but I really don’t think that zero deaths and zero cases is in any way realistic. Society will need to resume some level of normality prior to that point for the simple reason that zero deaths and cases will never be achieved.

Assuming that I read your posts correctly, I think where we differ is this: The impression I get from your posts is that even when vaccinations are done, you feel that great care needs to be taken to avoid contracting Covid at all. Partly to protect ones own health, partly to avoid contracting the virus and passing it on to others. my stance is that great care needs to be taken while vaccinations are brought up to an acceptable level, preferably that everyone who wants a vaccine, gets a vaccine. At that point, my current understanding of the risks involved, is that hospitalization and deaths from Covid will actually fall below the risks involved with many other virus and diseases, with which we are already familiar. Influenza is the obvious comparison, but there are a lot of others from which people get sick and die. So based on what I currently know, once sufficient of the population are fully vaccinated, society can start to get back to a more normal footing. Perhaps not completely normal, but much more normal. you are correct to say that people may still contract the virus and become sick, even die. But isn’t that the case with many such virus? The point being that the goal cannot be to eliminate all severe sickness and all deaths. That is an impossibility, for Covid and many other viruses. The goal is to reduce them to an “acceptable” level. Definitions of acceptable will no doubt vary from individual to individual. But once past the vaccination phase, there does then have to be a movement to the next phase. naturally, things will vary from country to country. Naturally there needs to be genome testing for mutations. Naturally vaccines need to be refined and improved. Naturally treatments for those who get sick need to be improved. But, having said all that, there has to be a point where Covid becomes a virus that humans can live with, just as they live with many other viruses.

Have to disagree with you there Tall guy. A. Agreed. Hence the need for everybody to be vaccinated ASAP. B. Yes, but once fully vaccinated the risk of death and hospitalization falls to a level that is acceptable within social norms. Neither are eliminated, nor will they ever likely be, but the same can be said for just about anything else involved with normal living. but the issue is vaccinating everybody who wants a vaccine. Thailand, like a lot of other countries, isn’t there yet, but the time will come sooner or later.

Absolutely. And kids in private schools using the UK curriculum were lucky that school closures coincided with the normal school holidays. Thai kids were meant to be in school for those two whole months! Trying to keep the school thing linked to the thread topic, there is so much focus on the baht to be raked in from tourists, but I never see a government comments bemoaning the lack of schooling. I’m beginning to sound like Brewster, but the contradiction in terms of, on the one hand enticing in tourists at almost any cost, whilst on the other hand keeping kids out of school, is just too much to ignore. Both happening at the same time within a small island with a highly vaccinated island.

How about hoping that kids can go back to school? It may not have immediate payback in terms of baht raked in, but kids are the future of this country. Even in highly vaccinated Phuket, although they are clamoring for tourists to come in, the situation is at the same time deemed to be too precarious for kids to attend school. Talk about contradictory. I’m lucky, my daughters private school has an excellent online program, Thai kids going to local Thai schools have just been on a months long extended holiday.

I can see the sense of ordering some buffer supplies of vaccine in preparation for potential booster shots (assuming the first round of full vaccination does actually get completed). The exact number required being a little bit of a moving feast given the limited data available on vaccine fade. But better to over estimate what’s required rather than under estimate. And there are a known number of sinovac double jabbed people who probably need an additional jab, so that a known quantity to cater for. but I wonder if it’s wise to pre order a ton of stuff to cater for future mutations? They say that is one of the reasons for this large order. But at this point the precise characteristics of future mutations are an unknown. Pre delta, sinovac was viewed as possibly on a par with other vaccines and perhaps more safe because it used the traditional delivery method of inactivated virus particles. The advent of delta changed that perception considerably. I hope that they don’t blow their wad all in one go and all on only 1/2 vaccines. A range of existing vaccines in stock plus the ability to move swiftly for whatever vaccine subsequently proves most efficacious against a future mutation, may be the best strategy.

in case anyone is wondering…like I was. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intradermal_injection

The first 20% is free. You have to pay for the other 80% if you want a full dose ????????. just kidding. I know the 20% is as a booster to two previous jabs and the usual 3 week thai study of results is ongoing. And I bet I can predict what the result will be…..a resounding endorsement of government proposals ????????????. Just kidding again, I don’t actually know the results.

I think it all depends on your definition of “open”. Phuket can receive international arrivals. But with the number of restrictions currently in place it can hardly be described as “open”. Certainly not so far as my daughters school is concerned! and with record numbers of Covid cases over the last few days, it doesn’t seem that the island will be more “open” in the near future. but yes, it’s “open” and so press on to other provinces so that they can similarly “open”.

It seems this is for restaurants in deep red zones. On the assumption that the Covid situation is improving and will continue to improve, presumably deep red zones will eventually become red, then orange and so on. Maybe by October there will be no deep red zones?

The authorities just don’t seem to understand that vaccination is no guarantee whatsoever of a Covid free environment, Covid free personnel, or Covid free customers. Vaccines are not primarily designed to stop someone catching Covid, although it is a necessary by product that 50% efficacy is required for approval. Vaccines are designed to stop serious illness. just as the temperature bleep machines at most shopping outlets achieve next to nothing because of the number of asymptomatic cases, so a vaccination certificate will not achieve a Covid free customer or environment. Hence only recently the Covid czar was musing about learning to live with Covid. this is another blind alley just like the hunt for unicorn foreign tourists.

I don’t really understand why tourists have to be “sealed” at all. They are such a minor part of the Phuket population and have been double jabbed, most with a quality vaccine. If the Covid cases in Phuket aren’t coming from tourists, why restrict them? Added to which, 70% of the whole island is supposedly double jabbed, so why isn’t the island moving toward normal living whilst monitoring symptomatic hospitalizations and deaths, rather than being fixated on case rates? the concept of vaccinating a large percentage of populations is that it enables normal living to restart and significantly reduces the numbers of severe cases. So why aren’t the Phuket authorities moving in this direction? After all, normal living with shops, bars, restaurants etc open as normal, is exactly what tourists want. the authorities just seem to have themselves trapped within one paradigm and can’t think their way out of it. It has to be sealed this and boxed that, when in actual fact, they could just restart the whole island as normal because they claim to have done the hard work on vaccinations.