carib102

I've never seen a "Santa Station" similar to those found in any mall in the U.S. here in Bangkok. If you really want your kids to see Santa your best bet is the Christmas eve dinner buffets at one of the better hotels in Bangkok. Prior years we've taken my daughter to see Santa at the Shangri-La, the Sukhothai, and Plaza Athenee. Not sure if they will have Santa there this year though, best to check with each individual hotel.

Actually this change puts school hours pretty much around the average for the 33 developed countries that were studied by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Credit where credit is due, maybe this isn't as much of a hair-brained idea as some here are assuming.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/02/school-days-how-the-u-s-compares-with-other-countries/

Your wives cook? When's dinner then?

Grateful the U.S. elected a President capable of getting the U.S. economy back on track after it was damaged so much by the Cheney administration.

I got a pay raise last week, and probably another next week

Thank you Mr. President!.

The President has nothing to do with this. If you're sending thank you cards address them to the Federal Reserve. And get ready for better times as the Fed begins to normalize interest rates. It should bring the USD/THB to 38-41 by the end of 2016.

massive drop to 34.9 right now

The drop came because the U.S. Employment Cost Index came in much weaker than expected. This shows weak wage growth in the U.S., one of the metrics that the Fed is watching to help determine the timing of rate hikes. The weak wage growth led to a perception that there is decreased likelihood for a September rate hike. You'll notice that the pair pretty much recovered 75 minutes later when the Chicago PMI number was much stronger than expected, indicating increasing inflation, another metric the Fed is watching. The increased inflation data offset the weak wage growth and the USD recovered a good part of the early losses. Looks like we finished the day with the USD/THB above 35 at 35.13 and it's a good bet that 35 will continue to hold as a support level for the pair now.

$ will go stronger vs Thai baht. Main reason: divergent monetary policy. BoT likely to further cut interest rates, FED likely to start raising interest rates.

....and then what happens, four, eight, twelve, twenty four months hence, that's the question really being asked?

The same answer applies to all of the time frame referenced. The USD will continue to get stronger against the THB for the next 24 months at a minimum.If you trade forex and don't mind the huge spread and can hold on through pullbacks buy USD/THB. In fact, buy USD/Anything (except possibly GBP).

$ will go stronger vs Thai baht. Main reason: divergent monetary policy. BoT likely to further cut interest rates, FED likely to start raising interest rates.

Someone who gets it. And is not buying gold right now I would guess.

Re. your "So if USD THB breaches 35.9 then its headed for USD THB at 41 the 10 year low of THB against USD."

Why do you consider 35.9 baht per USD the magic number here? Why not 35.4? And how do you know reaching that number necessarily means the baht is headed to 41?

Because he thinks that's what the charts say. He's basing it on previous high of 35.9 baht being breached. Previous highs and lows are known to traders and sometimes once these are breached the currency, share or whatever will move towards the next high or low. Only for people that believe in charts.

The moves "based on charts" are actually based on human belief and speculation. What happens is that traders place buy stops above previous highs and sell stops below previous lows, so it's kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Such moves have become far more pronounced since the advent of computerized or robot trading. Note that if you think you can take advantage of these types of moves they are often volatile and either continue strongly or reverse violently. There is much blood on Forex Ave. Good chart traders are good readers of human emotion typically as the charts simply tell them what's happening in the minds of those behind the trades. Poor chart traders slavishly follow "technical trading rules". There are no rules and certainly no absolutes when it comes to trading forex, or any asset for that matter. Hence the risk component of trading.

Note too that while everyone was off celebrating Asarnha Bucha Day and Buddist Lent yesterday and today the USD/THB moved from 34.90 through the resistance at 35 and is currently sitting at 35.23 heading into the weekend. While it's possible we'll get a pullback on Monday when Thais come back to work, the 35 level is now support for the pair and can effectively be considered the floor unless we get something fundamentally that would be a catalyst for a drop in the pair. Which is unlikely. What's more likely is that banks will sell the THB after missing the past two days and send the USD/THB even higher. But what do I know...

My over generalized Answer:

When a central bank increases its central rate the value of its currency goes up (and vice versa)

Since Fed Chair Janet Yellen is on record as saying Fed rates will increase this year (possibility at Sept Fed meeting or November) from the current 0% rate the FX trade is now reflecting this in the anticipated of the hike in September.

The reason why specifically EM's like Thailand suffer is that currency will normally flow away from most EM currencies and into the developed markets that is hiking their central bank rate - In this case it is the USD.

In short it is a simple supply and demand effect on the THB - There are more sellers than buying for THB and more buyers than sellers for the USD (within the USD/THB currency pair)

for more detail watch this video since it describes the effect on equities and Bonds as well as FX - On EM's

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000401850

I see this as a game of pea and thimble, or poker bluffing. Every time the Fed chair opens her mouth and hints at an interest rate rise " in the near future " , the US dollar as a reserve currency strengthens against most other currencies. I'll believe it when I see it happen. There is no evidence the American economy is so healthy it can sustain an interest rate rise without going into recession.

Consider the following: The USA has a debt of 17 trillion dollars, or 40 - 50 trillion if you want to count in unfunded liabilities of pensions and Medicare. Defence expenditure is ruinously expensive. Shale fracking is a Red Queen's race with the Saudis, and the Saudis will win because the depletion rates on their wells are a fraction of the capital requirements of new shale wells.

So to me, it's all smoke and mirrors, which is why I'm buying gold.

Is your rational to always buy gold when you don't know or trust what's going on (i.e., smoke & mirrors) with the international economy?

I think it's the "don't know" factor. I wonder how much gold bazza 40 was buying back in the summer and fall of 2011. He's seen the price of gold nearly cut in half since then so I guess at just under $1,100 an ounce it looks like a bargain. Won't he be excited to buy more when it test $1,000 and then later when it comes back down to normal levels around $700 an ounce. Of course maybe he's Russian as I believe the Russians are currently net buyers of gold.

There are many reasons why and a good number of them have been covered above. U.S. telegraphing rate hikes, Thailand telegraphing rate cuts, weak stock market causing outflows of capital, weak exports (falling for 3 consecutive years), increasing inflation, and falling foreign reserves are just some of the reasons. I don't believe that speculators are heavily short the THB at this time, but if that happens you will see 41-42 faster than you could imagine as Thailand has little recourse to protect the THB from a concerted effort from speculators to send it lower. The greatest probability is that the USD/THB will continue to trade in the 35-36 range until the September Federal Reserve meeting. If no cut it might pull back a bit (assuming there's no blow up in the Thai economy or political situation), and if the Fed does cut I believe the USD/THB could hit 38, at least on a short term basis as speculators punish emerging markets in general. Just my 2 cents though...

If they are really concerned about teens drinking they could take a page from my home state of Pennsylvania in the U.S. It only allows wine and spirits to be sold at designated state run establishments, and anyone who appears to be less than 30 years of age (the legal age for drinking is 21) will be asked for ID. In fact, they can ask you for ID just for being inside the shops if you appear to be under 30. I know they do it too, because I was regularly asked for ID until I was over 40 years old. In addition, there are a limited number of licenses for selling alcohol, both as a retail distributor and for such things as pubs and restaurants. This limits the number of places beer can be obtained and also separates the restaurants and clubs from retail places in terms of laws and enforcement. I can assure you that as a teen alcohol was quite difficult (though not impossible) to obtain. Though to be sure no one was selling to kids of 12 years and younger (something I have seen happen in Thailand).

To be honest we also have laws regarding the sale of alcohol near schools, but schools are typically in rural or residential areas, making these laws a non-issue when combined with the fact that the state government controls the sale of wine and spirits as well as the issuance of licenses to sell alcohol in pubs and restaurants.

Of course after looking for statistics to back me up the only thing I could find was a 10 year old report that indicated the incidence of underage drinking in Pennsylvania was just ~4% less than the norm in the U.S. So, maybe all this is just blowing smoke.

Oh my that was quick!

They can't/won't enforce current laws on the books, what makes any of you think they will enforce this one? Business as usual here with posturing, a few well publicized "busts" and then news about this will fall into a dark abyss and you'll never hear about it again, unless it somehow benefits someone to resurrect the new law for another round of action. Later I'll tell you all som nom na.

My wife is from Mae Sot. Never had to do a border crossing there, but we visit several times a year and it is always very relaxing and pleasant. People there are quite laid back and very friendly still. If it weren't for the need for good schools for our young daughter we would probably settle there now.

There are many very rich Thais who see a 100 million baht investment in land or condos as just testing the waters. So, they buy entire floors in new condo development, or 100s of rai in areas that are likely to experience high growth rates. Since there is no tax on land as in Western countries they can easily sit on this land for 10-20-50 years waiting for it to appreciate in value. Thais (and Asians in general) take a very long view when it comes to family wealth. So, a small number of very rich families and a huge number of poor people who rent from the rich families. It is the modern equivalent of feudalism.

Different strokes...different folks. Don't give up the the road riding. For me it is so much better than DH. Just find safer places to ride. They are available, even in Bangkok. I just wish the roads were safer in Thailand so I could ride mountains, but all the mountain roads are so dangerous due to trucks, buses and vans I would never think of trying them.

Thailand isn't admitting it but they are racing to the bottom along with other countries. Cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% earlier this week, but more importantly they eased capital controls making it easier to sell baht for other currency's and take it from Thailand. This allows institutional investors to more easily book profits from gains in the SET and expatriate them. When they do this they need to sell Baht, which will lead to a depreciating currency. This is the easiest method for the BoT since they have to deal with a currency that isn't a freely floating currency.

LOL Cambo weed

Expect USD/THB to go to 34 after a decent non-farm payrolls report. And then to 36 in 2016 as the U.S. begins to raise interest rates. That's my opinion and take it for what its worth.

I didn't come to Thailand until 1997 and it was against my will, but once I was here it was love. I spent the following 14 years trying to get back full time and finally made it in 2011 and I will never look back. If I had to return to the U.S. now my heart would be broken. I can only hope that the OP makes it back here as soon as possible.

Not a single cloud in the sky at 17;30 here in Bangkok. Rather than bracing for storms (which I would welcome) I am bracing for further brown outs due to record electrical consumption that the Thais are unable to deal with.