RPCVguy

Earlier I commented that the monthly analysis for April from Berkeley Earth would not be out until mid May. This one is lower resolution, but it gives the broad stroke review comparing this April for prior Aprils. the caption with it, posted in a group for Climate Alerts, reads:

"April 2024 easily beat the record for warmest April. A staggering 21% of the globe had their warmest April since 1940. Even when you exclude the oceans, April 2024 over land was also the warmest on record."

Brian Bordtschneider
When a higher resolution mapping becomes available, I expect to see splashes of coloring for 2nd or 3rd warmest appearing throughout, but the dominant regional trend for SE Asia is that this was the warmest April on record. That does not mean every day was the warmest, but it means the temperatures and time at those elevated temperatures per day are generally setting this April as the warmest on record.

1 hour ago, radiochaser said:

What have the temperatures been in Thailand lately?   Saying it's hot doesn't mean much without some perspective, such as a report on measured temperatures.   It's been hotter lately where I live, but it's normal temperatures for this time of the year, going up into the mid 80 deg F.!   And there will be hotter days to come. 

This was asked and answered in another thread - specifically for Bangkok when I posted at
•

Then, to take a top down look at all of Thailand as to whether this year has been warmer or similar to historical averages, we are still days away from the release of April's date, but here is a map of January through March, and Thailand has been warmer than average.

Global surface temperature anomalies for the first three months of 2024 compared to a 1951-80 baseline period. Figure from Berkeley Earth.

While all of Thailand was warmer than average in March, only portions of Thailand  averaged the month as one of the top 5 hottest months ever. This is an example of the map that will be released sometime around mid-May for April.

16 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I have an Amazon Alexa device at home that gives me current temperatures for Bangkok in real time every day. That's been showing daily highs illustrated by the gray bar peaks right around 100 F., sometimes a bit above, sometimes a bit below, for many days now. And the below chart seems to confirm that.

 

 

https://weatherspark.com/h/m/113416/2024/4/Historical-Weather-in-April-2024-in-Bangkok-Thailand#Figures-Temperature

 

Seems as though past years in April, as illustrated by the peaks of the gray shaded bars, have been quite a bit cooler, though 2023 was warming up:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 hours ago, KhunLA said:

And yet, they look almost identical to me ... 

 

Nor has the average high changed in 40-70 years, all of 0.7°F

 

 

You do have to consider, there's a lot more concrete and buildings, holding and radiating temps, so without those, and ambient air, might even be less.

 

Maybe do comparison elsewhere in TH, that hasn't changed as much.

Two posts with excellent detail to which I've extracted and commented upon why and how I see the comparisons need to be made.

The historical averages are increasing. they do so less rapidly near the coast than they do inland. Averages matter, but it is the peak temperatures in the tropics that stress the ability of humans to survive outside (or indoors if the power cuts off.)
The remnants of the El Niño that started last June are what are forecast to continue bothering SE Asia through most of May. If you have access to and are using air conditioning to modify your situation, enjoy it and appreciate its assistance. Many, many people in Thailand do not.
 

Interesting. This fits my desire to express warnings while satisfying the desire to avoid the term Eat Wave. 
The USA National Weather Service has posted an experimental coding for something they are labeling HeatRisk.
Unlike their chart of Heat Index, which calculates a number based upon Heat & Humidity or even the Misery Index that includes Wind Chill into the Heat Index, The HeatRisk  takes into consideration:

• How unusual the heat is for the time of the year
• The duration of the heat including both daytime and nighttime temperatures
• If those temperatures pose an elevated risk of heat-related impacts based on data from the CDC

Although I do not have access to anywhere near the amount of localized temperature and humidity data to begin to map Thailand's current situation, I suspect that the duration of elevated temperatures experienced this month in Thailand would be sufficient to apply the level 4 Magenta designation to them.
Unlike Heat Wave, which term has a definition of a specific number of degrees for a specific number of days, this designation can and does vary daily as is demonstrated in the mapping of the USA on different days this week as seen under the sub-menu for maps at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

19 hours ago, dinsdale said:

I see lots of confused emojis to my quoted post. I suggest those who are confused look up the definition of what a heatwave actually is. What we are experiencing is not a heatwave within the definition. What it is is continuous highs at the higher end of April maximum temperatures. This is the unusual part. Maximums are not unusually high for April. 

I'm not one who has posted such emojis on your post. The definition of a heat wave was maybe created (in Europe and North America) to cover situations that are dangerous to the health of many people. Temperatures in those regions vary more widely than in the tropics. The tropics are both more consistent in temperatures and simply closer to the limits of what humans can tolerate metabolically. A true "Heat Wave" in the tropics would be physically far more dangerous to life than one in temperate climate zones.

I agree on what the current definition is for heat wave, but there is not currently a suitable English word for the Heat Index Danger Zone now being experienced daily over a wide region of SE Asia.
The Link I provided in my above comment, with images refines the standard HEAT INDEX by including Wind Chill.
That site calls their index a MISERY INDEX.
People can access the menu for making the site interactive by clicking the word "earth" at the bottom left. The advantage of the site is that it accesses satellite weather data and presents it as a map, easy to understand.
I only wish the colors in the grid at the right (by Berkeley Earth) and the colors of the map matched. What is Amber on the map is in the light red in the grid. The reason so many people are agreeing with the discomfort of this month is that the FEELS LIKE temperature and humidity has been persistently high for the month... I see since April 3rd.
Because the humidity will rise faster than temperatures will drop as the monsoon rains begin, we can expect that the danger zone conditions will migrate towards extreme danger conditions. Things will then cool down as sufficient rain absorbs the excess heat now stored in roadways and building structures.

21 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Daily temperatures for Thailand in April usually range between mid 30°C to low 40°C maximums and high 20°'s for overnight minimums depending where you are. Average daily temperature is what it says, an average of both maximum and minimum temps. The average max for the next ten days where I am including today is 38.9°C with 29°C being the average overnight minimum. So no heatwave just continuous heat. Having said this I would think this year April will go down as one of, if not the, hottest on record. Doesn't make it a heatwave though as maximums and minimums are not unusually hot it's just continuous.

The WMO definition of a heatwave may need to be reconsidered. Those writing the definition might have shown a bias due to living in temperate latitudes. 2 Billion people live in the tropics where the temperatures are consistently closer to the ceiling defined by metabolic limits. People with a disease die when they sustain a fever of 40ºC/ 104°F. That is the same thermal limit if heat and humidity combine to inhibit cooling via sweating. Heat stroke occurs when their core body temperatures rise from environmental heat.

 

21 hours ago, jonclark said:

Just because you haven't experienced or seen what you define as a heatwave, doesn't me other people and parts of thailand have shared that experienced. My in laws who live 20km outside of Kanchanaburi have had to up sticks and move in with us as they simply could not bear the heat any longer and have had temperatures of 40+ for many, many days. And they have been in Thailand far longer than you or I being in their late 60's. They usually take the piss out of me as I am on the one complaining of the heat - nice to turn the tables for once. 

 

When we parked up to collect them and returned to the car an hour or so later - the temp in the car was a whopping 53 (obviously it a car and metal so conducts heat) but still I have rarely seen my car thermometer register anything above 40.

 

Splitting hairs as to if this is a heatwave of not, simply ignores the fact that is it very hot. End of. And on that everyone agrees. 

 

Our home is 2-stories, with the AC upstairs. Unfortunately, this year there are signs of a wiring problem in our attic - that no one dare go into to explore/fix. I'm about to go downstairs - again. It is sufficiently cooler to be tolerable while doing nothing beyond reading. We have the following report that came out, sadly pointing to SE Asia as the region most at risk of continued heat through the end of May as reported in this paper:
"The tropics, characterized by high temperatures and humidities, face heightened risks from heat-related impacts (Parkes et al., 2022; Raymond et al., 2020, 2021; Sherwood & Huber, 2010). This vulnerability is exacerbated by the consistent warming trend, leading to more frequent and intense heat events."
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL106990


Then looking at the actual conditions across SE Asia on Earth Day where areas in amber equate to 40ºC or higher, thus in the danger zone. The conditions  have been persistently the same since April 3rd. Misery Index (Heat Index discounted for wind chill) is mapped and posted in an interactive manner using weather data from EMC / NCEP / NWS / NOAA

• https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/04/22/0700Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-266.95,16.30,1823/loc=100.006,14.143

14 hours ago, Bobthegimp said:

 

My bulbs are wet at 40c, dry heat or humid. Ain't dead yet, though my taint could use a wash n swaddle. 

The first couple of minutes of this PBS video explains Wet Bulb, and a demonstration of how it is roughly measured.

23 hours ago, KhunLA said:

I like the 'wonderground' site for weather.   Fairly accurate, with nice 10 day forecast chart.  Also has the low/high expected with the 'feel like' temp.

Yes, that is a good site for basic data and a forecast too.
Another site supplies historical detail and compares it to the typical temperatures for that day. So far, Bangkok is warmer than average this year. Take a look at the temperature measurement vs the thin red line that tracks the historical average temperatures as recorded at
•   https://weatherspark.com/h/y/113416/2024/Historical-Weather-during-2024-in-Bangkok-Thailand

The data collected on the above site agrees well with the Weather DataGFS (Global Forecast System) assembled from EMC / NCEP / NWS / NOAA and posted on https://earth.nullschool.net/

The site can be set for a specific "home" GPS setting and will provide a few days forecast.

Locations that are not on weatherspark.com list of sites may have reporting, but I have found the data to be unreliable as to reporting relative humidity. Maybe their equipment is poor, or the equipment is not well placed. People reporting 55% humidity while stating the temperature is over 35ºC might be accessing such sites. Alternatively, the conditions are short term. Such readings are in the range that can not be endured for long.
Looking at Thailand for March 28th, such conditions were NOT seen. One of the worst readings was 37ºC with 37% relative humidity.
 

14 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

 

Another theory says the planet is swelling a little and becoming rounder because the surface pressure of the ice from the ice age has been removed. 

That's just another aspect of geophysics relating to glacial ice melt. It is not related to the latitude but rather to the specific mountains or land mass that is losing glacial ice. Post-glacial rebound or isostatic adjustment is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last ice age.

The headline got people to look, the reality is not soon so significant. Actually, the climate consequences are delaying a reverse negative leap second  from 2026 to maybe 2029.
• https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/melting-polar-ice-may-be-slowing-earth-s-spin-and-messing-with-how-we-measure-time/ar-BB1kHsvu
What is happening is that the mass of ice at the poles that melts ends up becoming part of the water bulge of oceans at the equator. Just like a figure skater can slow a spin by extending arms outward, the added mass at the equator means the Earth spins slightly slower. But the changes at Earth's core was causing a speeding up of the rotation.
The definition of a day being 24 hours of 60 minutes, each having 60 seconds has already been replaced by using the adoption of atomic clocks in 1967. That change of time measurement revolutionized timekeeping, relying on the precise frequency of atoms for accurate measurements.

People who are responsible for posting the time nationally will track the topic, come to an agreement and reset their clocks in the year needed, subsequent radio and communications systems will follow along, and most people will never notice.

27 minutes ago, digger70 said:

Thailand grapples with scorching heat ,

 

Same Ol Same Ol Happens Every Yr .

If you don't know they call that the hot Season.   5555 

Not quite. Each cycle of El Nino gets hotter.

For the tropics in general, and Thailand in particular, temperatures peak during both the spring and autumn equinox. As the planet warms, the oceans warm, and those seasonal temperature peaks also increase on average.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=tropics

It is the heat of the season, combined with high enough humidity to make it feel even hotter.
Today, the actual temperature of 37.5ºC feels like 40.2ºC
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/03/25/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-256.68,22.35,1823/loc=100.707,14.146

The ongoing warming of the seas add to humidity and pre-warm the air  more - before it reaches shore. It will make this El Nino hot season hotter than those of the past. Future cycles will get still worse. Here is a graph tracking ocean temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

Air over the tropics peaks during both the spring and autumn equinox. As the oceans warm, those seasonal peaks also increase on average.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=tropics

49 minutes ago, scottiejohn said:

How could they measure temperature to within 0.01C in 1850?

What instrument did they use?

Daily measurements on hundreds of locations globally, gathered over 50 years and averaged gave a DEFINED baseline that the IPCC nations agreed (in 2015) to use as the pre-industrial starting point. Very refined instrumentation since then has allowed agencies to measure the current AVERAGE to a level of precision.
If you look at the graphics in my post above at
https://aseannow.com/topic/1320365-thailand-braces-for-intense-heat-with-temperatures-soaring/?do=findComment&comment=18708900
Pay attention to how closely the different, independent agencies numbers have agreed over the last 50 years.
Then too, look at:

https://aseannow.com/topic/1319433-first-time-the-world-has-exceeded-15c-for-an-entire-year/?do=findComment&comment=18698506

You will see some lines have a shaded range showing the degree of uncertainty in that researcher or agency's numbers.

Here is a Bangkok specific reply as to the effect El Nino has on the history of heat during March, April and May. The peak temperature for El Nino globally is generally in February of the year after the El Nino started. Temperatures are rising globally, so recent La Nina years have averaged higher than El Nino years of even a decade ago. 2024 is when the peak temperatures for this El Nino cycle are expected.
These charts and tables show monthly averages compared to 30 years of averages for the same months from 1991-2020.

I highlighted the El Nino months to call attention to why this 2024 season from March through May has a high likelihood of being uncomfortably hot.

6 hours ago, scottiejohn said:

Whose records?

How/what were they measuring?

What was their accuracy?

You can do some research instead of just showing what you challenge others to answer.
Try this: "2023 was warmest year on Earth since direct observations began. In Berkeley Earth's analysis 2023 was 1.54 °C above our 1850-1900 average, making it the first year above 1.5 °C. The extreme heat was due to a combination of natural and man-made factors, including global warming and an emerging El Niño event. 17% of the Earth's surface had a locally warmest year, affecting 2.3 billion people, including significant parts of Asia, South and Central America."
https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/
Their story is at https://berkeleyearth.org/about/

They also show their reporting versus the other agencies globally

2 hours ago, Rimmer said:

Can we stay on topic please which is about:

 

First time the world has exceeded 1.5C for an entire year

 

Not about who believes in what

To be more precise, it is the first time since at least the beginning of the last Ice Age that Earth has been at this temperature. This El Nino cycle is expected to peak early this year - meaning heat release from the oceans soon will not be as significant a contributor to global average air temperatures. Don't expect any great relief though. The albedo reflectivity is worsening as snow and ice covered areas shrink, and the insulation factor of greenhouse gases continues to grow as their concentrations continue to increase.

Here is a set of graphs covering various historical ranges:

And here is the current plot of global daily air temperature anomaly. Earth has definitely averaged over 1.5ºC above the baseline agreed to by the IPCC and set as an International Goal to stay below in Paris in 2015

The latest global surface temperature data point on Feb. 8 from ERA5 once again put the planet 2.0°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline, at 2.01°C. The only other times this has happened were Nov. 17, 2023 (2.05°C) and Nov. 18, 2023 (2.06°C).

On 2/15/2024 at 10:49 AM, placeholder said:

I knew about her but I guess it depends on what is meant by "proven". Since Tyndall's results were definitive I went with him.

There are a number of women who have made discoveries for which they were not given credit. Once the error is known, it seems wrong to perpetuate the error. Among climate scientists, Eunice Foote is now recognized for her research, discovery, and presentation (documented in 1856.) It will take a while for old quotes of the prior citation to be clarified.

Here is a quote, published in 2011:
"Conclusion
In the course of scientific discovery, it can be difficult to assess claims of priority, particularly if research results are not placed in the public domain through formal publication. This is commonplace for presentations at scientific conventions, where often only a title or perhaps an abstract is preserved for posterity. In the case of Eunice Foote's pioneering research on absorption of radiant energy by greenhouse gases, such as CO2 , and the implication that compositional changes in the atmosphere could impact climate changes, it was only through the journalism of David Wells that the originality of her work has been documented. Despite the absence of a formal publication, It is clear that Eunice Foote deserves credit for being an innovator on the topic of CO2 and its potential impact on global climate warming.” https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2011/70092sorenson/ndx_sorenson.pdf.html

The information is accessible to track. Here is another link to it:
https://www.aip.org/history-programs/niels-bohr-library/ex-libris-universum/foote-note-climate-science-founder

On 2/9/2024 at 10:45 PM, placeholder said:

What makes the denialism of this fact remarkable is that the potency of CO2 as a greenhouse gas was first proven by the Great Irish Physicist John Tindall in the 19th century. 

Small correction here. The work was done and first presented 2 years before John Tyndall in 1858 as is usually credited. It took over a century for the proper credit to be given.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/02/the-woman-who-identified-the-greenhouse-effect-years-before-tyndall/

Just now, Danderman123 said:

If global temperatures continue to rise as CO2 levels increase, trees will grow in the Arctic. But, by then, cities such Miami and Bangkok may be abandoned.

Yep, a problem for habitability in the tropics as temperatures and humidity approach having days near human metabolic limits. That's especially bad for workers outdoors and those without access to air conditioning. Those with AC better hope there are no blackouts.
As for the Arctic, the soils may not support what we would hope to grow, and in many areas of the Arctic, trees are toppling as the subsoil thaws, heaves, or turns to a muddy mess.

2 hours ago, stargrazer9889 said:

 CO2 is nearly a trace gas, less than one half of one percent of the atmosphere and methane is a

trace gas. I wish media outlets would state this fact. Oh but does this mean that trees will grow in the arctic as they did in the distant past?

 just curious.

Harvey

If you think a trace gas can't have a large effect, you've never noticed how a small mosquito can affect you .
Greenhouse gases are transparent to visible light, but absorb and re-radiate infrared light (heat.) Human industrial activities have caused the concentration of CO2 from the inter glacial peak of 280ppm to 420ppm, that is a 50% increase in the insulation layer of CO2. Methane and nitrous oxides have also increased. The result is that day by day more heat energy is getting stored in Earth's systems. The imbalance, expressed as watts per square meter over the planet now exceeds 1.5W/sq.m. The cumulative effect is huge. 90% of that heat is stored in the oceans. Warmer oceans lead to more intense storms.

6 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's not just ice cores. There are lots of ways to get independent correlation from various biological processes. And they confirm each other. I don't know if you are familiar with the hockey stick controversy. Michael Mann, a climatologist, published a study that showed a sharp rise in temperatures. Denialists jumped all over it. Subsequent studies, drawn from different sets of data have all confirmed this. 

 

Interesting news today about Michael Mann:
"After a day of deliberations, the jury ruled that Simberg and Steyn defamed Mann through some of their statements. The compensatory damages were just $1 for each writer. But the punitive damages were larger. The jury ordered Simberg to pay Mann $1000 in punitive damages; it ordered Steyn to pay $1 million in punitive damages."
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/08/1230236546/famous-climate-scientist-michael-mann-wins-his-defamation-case

The full 213 page decision by the Colorado Supreme court can be read at
• https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf
The first few pages of the text get right to the heart of the decision, with the balance being to document their reasoning and hem in the options for the true audience, the US Supreme Court.
The Colorado court's decision was explicitly written to force the SCOTUS "originalists" to accept the precise wording and need for applying the 14th Amendment. I think the US Supreme Court would be doing the GOP a favor by agreeing with the Colorado Court's decision. The delay tactics by Trump's team in the DC and Georgia cases sill likely mean that the convictions that look to be assured will not happen until after the COP convention, making it too likely that by the time of the election their nominee will be ineligible for the office his MAGA fans seek to grant him.

1 hour ago, scorecard said:

 

At least 3 items that are missing from these discussions / comments:

 

- Are basic offshore state pensions subject to Thai personal tax?
- What's the threshold income amount which requires annual reporting and possibly payment of Thai personal tax on offshore state pensions received into Thailand?

- Does a double tax agreement with the country of origin of the pension have any affect (realizing of course that the laws of the sending country cannot be imposed by or on the Thai legal system/processes)?

Agreed! These are the basic questions for many retirees, especially retirees who have married Thai.
As reported so far, this is the kind of murky, ill-defined announcement that will cause a flood of comments, and tons of anguish. (As did the forced medical insurance rule change of a few years ago.) I have no investments and conduct no business. Currently I am well below the amounts that are taxable in the USA. As it is for me, ALL of it goes to my family, helping the local town economy.

This part looks encouraging, but is slippery when viewed midst the overall message of the article.
"The section provides for a 15% tax rate on interest on bonds, deposits or debentures, and capital gains derived from selling shares, debentures, bonds or other financial instruments linked to companies or other juristic partnerships. The legal experts suggested that many investors, including foreigners and Thai people alike, may not be able to easily differentiate for tax purposes between the principal and income of sums moving in and out of the country, which could lead them to be taxed at a rate of 35% and in this way would become an incentive for investors to keep their money out of Thailand to avoid complications with the Revenue Department."

11 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Impending drought? We have had about 2-3 weeks of very regular warnings of heavy rain and thunderstorms... and it was actually correct yesterday in the Pattaya area....I really don't know what to expect.

Earth's oceans are in the midst of an El Nino, one that is forecast to be a strong one. As noted in this article, El Nino has strong consequences for Asia.
• https://www.eiu.com/n/el-nino-south-and-south-east-asias-2023-wild-card/


El Nino / La Nina conditions are forecast each year around early June for the coming 12 months. The peak ocean conditions occur in the following December- February, which for Thailand means warmer weather during the seasonal dry season, often extending the duration of the typical hot, dry season of March through May (in 2019 the monsoons didn't arrive until June).
We should be happy the current rainy season in topping off the reservoirs. The impending dry season is forecast to be worse than usual.