Boeing757

Airways are the route an aircraft plans to fly. It is also the route it has to fly in the event of a communications failure.

Once airborne an aircraft can, and will deviate from that route for many reasons.

Weather avoidance, other aircraft avoidance, fuel saving and trying to make it home before pub closing time are all legitimate reasons for deviating from your planned airway. Therefore aircraft can be found in any airspace over Thailand.

Releasing a weather balloon in the Bangkok FIR (all of Thailand) without consent is just as much a crime here in Thailand as anywhere else, only the prisons here are less comfortable.

Just in case you feel you are sure you can get away with it, just remember that they are designed to be tracked on radar. They have not made a stealth weather balloon yet!

Clive

I went.

I saw.

I flew.

but there was no sign of the illusive Mr. Tagaa.

I will see you there tomorrow morning (Tuesday) at 0730 with transmitter in hand.

Clive

I could get a 757 into that strip it is so good,

and I live only 16Km away from it.

Clive

It is a great site and I have flown there often.

Although I crash as much as most, I do not think the debris was mine!

There are quite a few meetings there including many jets. I supose you have just missed them.

It is used by both the Mukdahan and Amnat Clubs regularly.

I can put you in touch with members of the Mukdahan club if you are interested.
They are very regular fliers at there site behind Toyota in Mukdahan.

Some of the best Helicopter flying I have ever seen has been in Mukdahan and I attend, and often compete in The UK Nationals every August Bank Holiday.

Let me know if you want to join-up for a flying sesion.

I will be there all next week.( 12-16 May 2014)

Clive

I have just done some digging for information and learned that this is not a Government Auction at all. It is a private Co-Op.

Maybe the reason the Kee is bought unseen is historical.

If in the past no stones have been added or chemicals injected, the buyers are happy to accept that this will always be the case?

Clive

Sold some Kee Yang at 34 Baht. That's down on last week

The you are being ripped off!!

44.59b last Thursday for Key Yang in Mukdahan.

Regards

Clive

Is that at the gate, at the buyer or further up the chain?

Local (private) market in village close by.

I do not really know if it is a Government Auction or not.

Quite small really. Total kee about 30 tons per fortnight.

Clive

No test for water.

These prices are for "unseen" Kee Yang.

Two weeks of Kee dropped off in sacks on 22 September, and left overnight.

Sealed envelopes opened at midday the next day and paid out in cash.

For information these are the prices paid this year.

12/1/55 = ราคา 50.55

7/2/55 = ราคา 67.62

14/7/55= ราคา 40.89

21/8/55= ราคา 44.59

Clive

Sold some Kee Yang at 34 Baht. That's down on last week

The you are being ripped off!!

44.59b last Thursday for Key Yang in Mukdahan.

Regards

Clive

Do they test the water content when you sell to them? If so, what method do they use to test the water content ?

No test for water.

The price was for unseen Kee.

Two weeks of rubber in sacks dropped off on 20 September. Left overnight.

Sealed bid envelopes opened at midday 21st and paid out in cash.

For information, these are the prices paid for similar amounts this year.

12/1/55 =. ราคา 50.55

7/2/55 = ราคา 67.62

14/7/55= ราคา40.89

21/8/55= ราคา44.59

Clive

Sold some Kee Yang at 34 Baht. That's down on last week

The you are being ripped off!!

44.59b last Thursday for Key Yang in Mukdahan.

Regards

Clive

Not to extend the pain but there is no reason to expect the current downturn to kill rubber prices forever. If you go back in time there was the S&L scandals, the dot com bubble, Y2K, Enron and accounting issues, the return of Hong Kong to China, etc, etc, etc. At each of these events the doom and gloomers came out and cried that the sky was falling. In 2008 the US had a major reversal, now Europe is suffering and the East is no longer seeing double digit growth.

In the long run these things too will pass. Oil prices will go up again soon and when they do $150/bbl US is likely. Global economies/growth have/has been stagnant since 2007. This all means that now is a good time to be investing. It may be that we have to suffer through 6-24 months of stagnant growth but things will turn around. These things happen in cycles, we are due to have an upswing, this upswing will likely last 3-5 years then we will have a new downswing. During the upswing the news will shout out that this is a new economic paradigm and we will all be walking on streets of gold soon. During the downswing the news will shout out that this is the beginning of the end of capital markets and that anarchy will soon follow. Both will be wrong and 100 years from now these things will be noise around a 6-8% post inflation return on global markets (as we have seen for the past 100 years).

Will rubber be worth 10 times more in 10 years? Unlikely, but possible.

Will rubber be valueless in 10 years? Unlikely, but possible.

Anyone who says they know what will happen is either a fraud or a fool.

Just my 2 cents, ....... back to farming.

I agree wholeheartedly with you Daking.

I first decided to get into Yang trees in November 2008.

At that time the average price of RSS3 was *44baht/kg. and still falling.

I did my sums with my 'rose tinted glasses' on, which indicated that this could be profitable, but only just.

The same source indicates that last months price was 107baht/Kg. Admittedly it has been falling for some time now but, in the words of Darking 'we are due to have an upswing'.

I see no Armageddon here in Paradise.

In fact, here on the banks of the Mekong near Mukdahan, it has not rained for over a week.

My optimism is starting to pay off already.

Clive

*source: IRCO.biz - Thailand

Sonny,

I too am confused with the cup rubber pricing.

Our last (small) sale of the season was on 7 Feb, just 5 days after your last sale. We got 65b/Kg and were disappointed. You must have been gutted!

It would be nice to get to the bottom of this.

I am only 200Km from you in Mukdahan and get 25% more.

This just does not add up.

Clive

Sorry tothemark. I misread your post.

Presumably you were asking how I had calculated 45 rai for Jim's land?

Between 3000 and 4000 trees must be about 45 rai.

Do you agree?

Clive

Hi all

Know some of you love to number crunch, not my style. To me it all comes down to how much rubber and the price per kilo. Today we sold our first RSS for the season plus the beading and scrap rubber. For those who are really not up to speed on how it works. We opened our trees about 6 weeks ago, and no usable latex was produced for the first 2 weeks, only cup, which we sold. So the numbers are for the last 4 weeks. RSS 1374 kilos plus 71 kilos of beading and scrap rubber. We lost 4 days of tapping due to rain. and there is another 100 plus kilos that have not been smoked yet, in the shed. In my book a good start to the season as the trees output will continue to rise over the coming months.

Government price paid RSS 141.75 Baht a kilo. Beading and scrap 88 Baht a kilo.

Before anyone asks how many trees, I don;t know, never counted how many we are tapping, somewhere over 3000 but less than 4000. for those who like figures on rubber per tree day, month, rai or lunar cycle knock you self out. Jim Correction beading and scrap rubber sold to private buyer.

Thanks for all the numbers Jim. Especially as you would obviously prefer to be getting on with life, instead of maths.

For those of us waiting patiently for our first pay-day, this is all we have to by.

My simple calculation indicates about 1500kg rubber from about 45 rai in 1 month.

Or 12000 - 14000kg per year.

That is about 300 kg/rai/year.

Tell me if I am wrong please?

Clive

Hi Clive,

Sorry to do parrot fashion, but how many trees do you have on 45rai ? Can I presume 80 per rai if thats the case, 3600 trees. Your first year will be hit or miss but should be around 480 kg/rai year/ increasing to 800kg/rai year circa 12 year +.

Hi tothemark,

I have 3886 trees on 49 rai.

Although most are RRIM600 there are also JVP80 and RRIT261.

If I were to make 480kg/rai/year I would be over he moon.

As for 800, i will, for now, put that in the category of "pink flying pigs"

Clive

Hi all

Know some of you love to number crunch, not my style. To me it all comes down to how much rubber and the price per kilo. Today we sold our first RSS for the season plus the beading and scrap rubber. For those who are really not up to speed on how it works. We opened our trees about 6 weeks ago, and no usable latex was produced for the first 2 weeks, only cup, which we sold. So the numbers are for the last 4 weeks. RSS 1374 kilos plus 71 kilos of beading and scrap rubber. We lost 4 days of tapping due to rain. and there is another 100 plus kilos that have not been smoked yet, in the shed. In my book a good start to the season as the trees output will continue to rise over the coming months.

Government price paid RSS 141.75 Baht a kilo. Beading and scrap 88 Baht a kilo.

Before anyone asks how many trees, I don;t know, never counted how many we are tapping, somewhere over 3000 but less than 4000. for those who like figures on rubber per tree day, month, rai or lunar cycle knock you self out. Jim Correction beading and scrap rubber sold to private buyer.

Thanks for all the numbers Jim. Especially as you would obviously prefer to be getting on with life, instead of maths.

For those of us waiting patiently for our first pay-day, this is all we have to by.

My simple calculation indicates about 1500kg rubber from about 45 rai in 1 month.

Or 12000 - 14000kg per year.

That is about 300 kg/rai/year.

Tell me if I am wrong please?

Clive

With regards to the last few posts, I would like to turn this post around to a subject that perplexes me somewhat, and i am not trying to be smart. I really do not understand. Maybe someone will enlighten me.

I have mentioned that last years average RSS 3 price was about THB100/Kg. (Actually it was THB 116.08)

Tothemark has now revealed that last years average cup rubber price was THB 55/Kg. A fact I can accept completely.

WHY?

For the added extra work and equipment needed, why are farmers making cup rubber when they could double their income by making sheets?

Clive

Well, I really did put the cat amongst the pigeons!

I have read the replies with great interest without having any constructive replies.

I can also see both sides of the Cup - Sheet discussion.

What I really do find hard to believe, despite very persuasive arguments, is that we could be paid for water. It may appear as if we are, if wet Cup generates the same price as dry Lump per Kg.

Probably, however, the Cup Lump price has already been reduced to take this into account when compared with Sheets.

Some of the prices and percentages are too variable for my monkey brain. I would prefer to see some more tangible figures.

It matters not where in the country you are nor at what time. All that is needed is a comparison.

So can someone tell me on any ONE day in any ONE place the following? (at your farm gate)

The price paid for RSS 3, ADS, Latex, Dry Cup and wet Cup.

Unfortunately these prices are meaningless without the DRC of all of the above. That may be more difficult to assess.

Sorry, but these facts are not available to me at the moment.

Clive

With regards to the last few posts, I would like to turn this post around to a subject that perplexes me somewhat, and i am not trying to be smart. I really do not understand. Maybe someone will enlighten me.

I have mentioned that last years average RSS 3 price was about THB100/Kg. (Actually it was THB 116.08)

Tothemark has now revealed that last years average cup rubber price was THB 55/Kg. A fact I can accept completely.

WHY?

For the added extra work and equipment needed, why are farmers making cup rubber when they could double their income by making sheets?

Clive

Please don't pull your hair out on account of me!

I certainly appreciate your reply and accept it from a far more experienced source than me.

You are absolutely correct that my assumption was for the average 2010 mat price. As I mentioned previously, there is often not enough information to go by, and guesses have to be made. You will notice that there is no mention if mats or key yang were made.

As "for putting this to bed", I don't think so.

It is for just this kind of reaction we are all here.

Keep it coming!

Clive

Tothemark. Thank you for your reply.

Firstly, I am certainly not an expert. My 49 rai are only half way through their 7 year gestation period.

The .33 kg/tree/month figure was not mine, but my attempt to convert Philo's figures into your preferred calculation.

The thing I certainly agree with is a desire to convert figures into meaningful calculations we can all understand.

There are many statements around which, despite the best intentions are really meaningless as not enough facts are included. People often asume that you know that a figure is per year or per tree or, as we have just proven Gross or Net.

Scotbeve. I agree that we should keep things conservative.

I stated some time ago that I would only consider 300kg/rai/year, 100baht/kg and 50/50 split with tappers. I see no good reason why I should change my mind just now. Then in 3-4 years time, I may be pleasantly supprised.

Keep this post going. I love it!

Clive

In my humble opinion, the statement by Tothemark, "Its not about the $ received its all about the Kg's." is exactly to the mark.

I am not sure however that his maths are the same as mine.

Philo's "600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnt." was just that. A gross amount including tappers percentage, and it was on last years prices.

So my calculator tells me that THB 20,000 divided by last years average price of THB100/kg = 200kg for 600 trees per month.

This equates to 0.33 kg/tree/month, using your preferred calculation.

This in turn is 200 kg/rai/year using my, and the Governments preferred calculation.

This incidentally is exactly the same as the THB 100,000 per 10 rai quoted by fatfather today.

Remember that the governments national average is 289 kg/rai/year.

Clive

Hi HumbleFalang,

My wild guess, and it is very wild (as you requested) is 180,000 baht per year in your second year of tapping.

That makes the assumption that you make air dried sheets from your latex, the prices for rubber are similar to today's, you pay your tapper 40% and you have looked after and fertilised your trees.

In the first year of tapping it is likely to be 2/3 of the above amount.

The optimum number of trees per rai is 75-80. Jim is absolutely correct that you have far too many trees. I have seen figures that suggest that going up to 100 trees per rai is a waste, but it will not detract from the yield per rai.

Yours is closer to 125 per rai.

Clive

Maybe someone can advise me.

When a price of say 110 baht per Kg is quoted for cup rubber, that must surely be for the DRC?

If so, then how is that assessed? I imagine that it can not can be a simple thing to either calculate or guess.

Clive

Canada.

In my opinion last years trees between 2 and 6 feet is absolutely normal.

50% failure rate however is not so good.

Clive

This week I paid 70 Baht per tree. Ouch!!

I needed to replace 500 trees after last years fatalities, so I chose grade 'A' RRIM 600's. If I had bought grade 'B's I could have saved myself 10 Baht per tree, but I wanted to give them a good chance as the others are three years old. This will probably be my last chance on this land as the canopy may preclude further replacements for much longer.

I also bought some Grade 'B' JVP 80's. These were also 70 Baht per tree.

3 years ago 20 Baht.

Last year 35 Baht.

Now 70 Baht.

Whatever next?

Clive

Jim.

My Chinese abacus tells me that your $15,000 USD for 25 rai seems to equate to 360kg / Rai / year.

That is a very respectable return for your first year.

Am I about right, or have I screwed up (again)?

Clive