Jump to content

tharae

Member
  • Posts

    173
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by tharae

  1. He means that what he hears, doesn't reflect the reality we know exists back in the states.

    There is something that isn't registering, like many people seem to think the Internet,

    Television and Hollywood Personalities are 'Americans in general'. When at best they are

    caricatures or archetypes writ large. Or that, for a glaring example, Bush was elected

    and kept in office by a majority of Americans, and so we ALL think like that...

    Just like Thaksin it was really a minority segment, that managed to get enough votes by hook or crook.

    Those that have actually been there and traveled any amount there are not like this.

    Though of they stayed regional they often adopt regional stereotypes attitudes vs other sections

    He doesn't mean an inability to take criticizm from friendly allies, which Bush had in spades,

    but that many of our allies citizens, clearly have misshapen images of what life in America is actually like.

    OK, I get it. It's just as well that many Americans don't have a jaunduce view of their allies then.

    Crocodile Dundee signing off.

  2. I don't think any one on this forum has any objection to the poor being given the opportunity to work themselves out of poverty and to have a brighter more secure future. And as Abhist has offered mediated talks; which would be an ideal forum in which to bring up their hopes and concerns, and have some concerete promises laid down, as to how a brighter more equitable future can be achieved - A meeting with the PM seems the perfect opportunity. So why dismiss it?

    It seems that the 'poverty' card gets played with the provision, that only a 'red' alligned political party is allowed to solve this problem and that makes me seriously wonder if certain political parties really want to solve the so called underlying problem. Or if they prefer to use poverty as an excuse to further exploit the down trodden.

    The whole democracy thing is just smoke and mirrors. Democracy takes may forms in many different countries. And in 18 mopnths new elections will be held. If the Dems manage to solve the poverty problems in that timeframe. Then the Reds really will be up the creek.

    I have a solution to the poverty problem take Taksins 46 billion confiscated baht and start some real help for the farmers and poor in general. You ever seen how the majority of the rice is planted, harvested, threshed etc. BY HAND. A lot of small tractors, combines and other farming equipment would help alot. And how about attracting, financing cottage industries all over up country. Interest free loans with credits for increasing production and industries loans with credits for employing local people. There is a lot that could be done with 46 billion baht. how many poor head of households are there? I have no idea but if it is 1,000,000 that would be 46,000 baht available for each for farm and business improvements. So what does the powers that be have in mind for this money?

    :):D:D:D:D:D is that their mindset???

    Great ideas! have you ever heard of layoffs because people get replaced by machines? So don't forget to include a solid social security program for the jobless in your save the poor scenario.

    I get that. But I've heard that before. Wait a minute - sounds a bit like FDR.

  3. In the first quarter alone, exports look set to grow 20 per cent to US$40 billion (Bt1.29 trillion).

    However, she admitted export growth could slow in the second quarter if the baht remained too strong for long, because it would create problems for exporters trying to do business.

    I've watched the seasonal swings in the exchange rates for more than a decade, and if TV would relax it's rules about linking to other sites, I could link to articles I had published about it back in 2002-4 to support what I say next.

    Her statement about the Q1 and Q2 differences is no more than a reporting of what has happened EVERY year since 1998, and did prior to 1997 - 1997 was an unusual year that culminated in the Asian Financial crisis.

    The exchange rate trends come from two very simple factors that still remain stronger than they should do -

    Q1 rates cause the Baht to rise in strength because of -

    a - the winter rice harvest and the glut of export availability in Q1. By Q2, the stockpiles are reducing and the new harvest is still growing ready for the summer harvest, therefore not yet available to prop up the currency.

    b - the winter is the tourism high season for Thailand, and the millions of arrivals are causing the Baht to have higher than normal volumes purchased in other currencies - both pre-travel, as well as on tourist-arrival and whilst here.

    The annual trend for every year (except 1997) has been a simple " W " shaped graph plotted across the 12 months from January to December.

    i.e. The Baht is strongest in January and gradually declines until late May / early June. It then strengthens again until mid August, when it again weakens through to mid-October, before rising again through to the end of the year. Plot it out - that creates a W shape line.

    The amazing thing is that this W also mirrors the monthly tourist arrivals figures, displaying that tourism has a disproportionate effect on the exchange rate in comparison to its percentage of GDP and GNP - remember rice is still Thailand's highest grossing physical export, and that the two prime harvests (which vary slightly from province to province) are January and July. Combination of the two - inbound tourism and rice exports - cause massive requirements for Baht on the part of the tourists, overseas tourism agencies, and rice buyers. This drives the two peaks which occur at the same time.

    This year I expect the W to be flatter than normal due to both the pressure on rice prices and global travel caused by exchange rates and the global economic pressures from the US-led recession of 2008, but it will still have a W shape to it as both rice and tourism are still the strongest demand factors on the Baht, and they remain seasonal exports.

    As I said, her statement of Q2 exports being slower than Q1 is not a prediction, it is a trend statement based on decades of same-same performance.

    It's basically a "No sh1t Sherlock" utterance, yet she will receive massive kudos for it from the Thai population and pundits.

    T.I.T.

    :)

    That sounds like a no-bulls, sensible explanation that can even be comprehended by the non-economist (like moi). Thank you for this clear, non-jargon analysis. Not sure if all the 'experts' will agree with you but I can follow your logic and hence think there is some merit in it. :D

    All very entertaining.

    The Macro ecomonics perspective confirms that western (proped up) currencies have fallen against the developing countries over the last 30 -40 years, as they have developed. So we'll all have to get used to a higher value Baht. Notwithstanding the fact the fact the Thai Government has been buying baht to maintain some consistency.

  4. On an earlier thread when mentioning PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's degrees earned in England, I mentioned that he received a doctorate law degree or maybe I just said a law degree from Eton College, UK. I don't know who posted the following reply as I was unable to reply to it. I quote:

    "He received his law degree from Eton!!!!!!!!!!!! It's a boys school they finish when they are 18, they don't do degrees because they are not a University. Christ on a bike! You must be an American.

    Yes, I am an American living in Thailand. The poster's words seem to be telling me that I am ignorant because I am an American. This seems to be a majority belief among the vast majority of TV posters from the UK. It may surprise the poster that only a handful of people in the world - outside of the so-called "UK" - cannot name more than one university in England much less a prep school.

    But, I am smart enough to type in Abhisit Vejjajiva in google or yahoo and read his biography. All that I have read mention that he received a law degree or an honorary law degree from Ramkhamhaeng Univ. schools, Eton College, UK. So I assumed that Eton was a college or university. It seemed to read that way to me. I often wonder why so many people on TV engage in personal attacks on others who are simply voicing their opinions. Calling other posters ignorant & worse for posting their comments is rude to say the least. And, I guess attacking the U.S.A. (or what many call America) and all of its citizens really gets old. It is a country of more than 300 million people and certainly they do not ALL think alike. I left because of several political reasons but I still think that the average American is and always will be first in line to help the people of any country in the world if it and its people experience a castastrophe. Always the U.S. will be the country that gives the most money. So hating all the people b/c of the sorry lot that are elected Pres. is just plain wrong.

    By the time I'd been in Thailand three years, I was aghast because of the cultural and civilizational deficits and deficiencies some 75% to 80% or so Western Europeans I met or worked with suffered relative to the society, culture and civilization of the United States. It's even worse among those 'Westerns' I met from the down under regions of the South West Pacific, this time to the tune of 85% to 90% of them. The ignorance, prejudices, biases towards the United States and its people was outdone only by their complete disconnect from life in the US. I simply was speechless and mortified by the willful and systematic contempt these people have towards the US.

    It's really a frightening and pathetic deficit disorder of a serious cultural and civilizational magnitude over in those places. I of course got used to it and since simply dismiss their blissful world of the surreal and bizarre when it comes to the United States. We have more Nobel Prize winners in every category, usually by a huge difference, except for literature in which the US is 2 winners behind the leader France. We have the world's best and leading universities etc etc.

    Yet the cultural deficits of the Western Europeans and of the Down Unders I've met are appalling. Worse, they are beyond repair or recovery. One Belgian idiotically said to me that Pres Kennedy's statement in German during his visit to Berlin, "I am a Berliner" was spoken in erroneous German.....this wild and malicious claim was made by the guy despite the German language statement having come from the West German Embassy in the US and from German language experts at the State Department and leading universities of the US. That's willful malevolence towards the United States, which must be dismissed immediately and out of hand as not credible or reasonable - as simply irrational and mean spirited.

    Tsk tsk.

    Those Western Europeans and Down Unders you refer to are the best friends the US has right now (and probably ever will). If you can't accept critcism from your friends, then who?

  5. That would be Psychiartist

    Make sure you spell it correctly yourself before you take the piss. :)

    Beat me to it!

    Uh campers,

    that actually was forensic psychologist

    not psychiatrist ...

    Just so we're all clear as mud. A psychologist has a PH.D. (typically) and they work with people in therapy. A psychiatrist is a MD or DO who prescribes medication for the treatment of mental disorders. Many people see both types of these doctors.

    You see - it's all about degrees

  6. OMG. If I had any doubts about this guys mental state. I don't now. Even the most intellectually challenged Red Shirts would be asking questions now.

    Well excepting those showing such moral courage to deviate

    from the obvious truth of the matter... :)

    Everyone make up a story to justify their cause.

    So basically lets look at the facts , if that still count in that forum

    Thaksin in September 2006 was the PM of Thailand appointed by HM the King of Thailand .

    Caretaker PM , alright , but legally PM nonetheless am i right ?

    So the legal PM was removed by a military coup ? it was a Monday if i recall .

    Question : Is it legal to remove a PM through a military coup ???? Yes or No .

    PS : Dont give me please your opinion on Thaksin for once , just please answer if legal or not

    It has happened - so build a bridge. And it is probably the best thing that has happended to Thailand for a while now. In case you had'nt noticed no other country or the UN has called foul.

  7. At least Thaksin came to power legitimate

    :):D:D

    Bribing others to vote for you is hardly legitimate. Unless of course one sees that as the norm

    Come on . Is it a joke or what ? Since democracy exist in Thailand political parties have been bribing poor voters

    Not an excuse for Thaksin but AT least be objective ...

    Clearly out of touch with what is going on in Thailand. Typical Falang view that all Thais are corrupt. Maybe too many Leo's. But still a racist comment.

  8. I have said it for some time:

    It was clear Thaksin has regularly losing control of his decision making abilities, when under pressure.

    This has been a clearly visible pattern since at least the 2006 election cycle,

    it grew in frequency in the following 6 months, and grew increasingly more obvious since the coup.

    Particularly noticeable to the average person AND his die-hard fans last Songkran and this weekend.

    I am of the opinion that this predictable loss of judgment was closely observed by those around him

    and contributed in no small measure to the coups happening. He became a loose cannon too many times

    in too short a period. Since these are very very poor characteristics in a nations leader,

    on might imagine this scared more than a few people needing to work with him.

    Anger, lose of control, and lose of self control cycle through him when thwarted,

    and he seems to lash out. Without consideration of truth or consequences.

    I would be very interested in having a true forensic psychologist

    look at 20-30 of Thaksins public pronouncements of the last

    5 years in sequence, and give and opinion.

    What a great idea, let's call in the NCIS team, or The Mentalist. If that doesn't work we could call in the physiatrist from Two and Half Men

    That would be Psychiartist

  9. I have said it for some time:

    It was clear Thaksin has regularly losing control of his decision making abilities, when under pressure.

    This has been a clearly visible pattern since at least the 2006 election cycle,

    it grew in frequency in the following 6 months, and grew increasingly more obvious since the coup.

    Particularly noticeable to the average person AND his die-hard fans last Songkran and this weekend.

    I am of the opinion that this predictable loss of judgment was closely observed by those around him

    and contributed in no small measure to the coups happening. He became a loose cannon too many times

    in too short a period. Since these are very very poor characteristics in a nations leader,

    on might imagine this scared more than a few people needing to work with him.

    Anger, lose of control, and lose of self control cycle through him when thwarted,

    and he seems to lash out. Without consideration of truth or consequences.

    I would be very interested in having a true forensic psychologist

    look at 20-30 of Thaksins public pronouncements of the last

    5 years in sequence, and give and opinion.

    What a great idea, let's call in the NCIS team, or The Mentalist. If that doesn't work we could call in the physiatrist from Two and Half Men

  10. Let's expose this for the crude hoax that it is.

    There is no doubt the that government has set up an actor as a Thaksin look/sound alike, to utter these words in a diabolical attempt to portray the man as being totally amoral, corrupt, and mentally unbalanced.

    Mythbuster and Rainman will surely come in here to support me.

    So astute.

×
×
  • Create New...