GDP growth target for 2020 set at 2.7 to 3.7 per cent

[snoop1130]

GDP growth target for 2020 set at 2.7 to 3.7 per cent

By THE NATION

 

Kobsak Pootrakool

 

The Council of the Economic Ministers on Friday (November 22) approved the government's economic target of 2.7 per cent to 3.7 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth next year.

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs, said the government also targeted budget disbursement of 92.3 per cent of total budget next year in order to achieve the 2020 GDP growth target.

 

The council also set export growth target of at least 3 per cent next year and total 41.8 million tourist arrivals. It also aims for private local and foreign investment of at least Bt3.3 trillion next year.

 

The council urged all state agencies to accelerate budget disbursement of Bt110 billion in this quarter.

 

The meeting was also briefed on projects faced with slow disbursement, including the the Thai-China high-speed train project.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30378640

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-11-22

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

[Scot123]

Why not make it 15% or 20% when following current trend they will be lucky to hit 0.37%. 

[mok199]

Denial only lasts so long...

[Number 6]

 

 

[Cadbury]

Alfred E Pootrakool predicts GDP growth rate of of 3.7% for next year. Exports to do a complete reversal and go to 3% gain.

They set this stooge up to make a fool of himself and he can do that without even opening his mouth.

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Cadbury

[Isaan sailor]

I wonder if I can get some Vegas odds on next year’s growth in exports.  Would gladly bet against Mr. Pootrakool’s projections.

[saengd]

Some may have overlooked this part:

 

"Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs, said the government also targeted budget disbursement of 92.3 per cent of total budget next year in order to achieve the 2020 GDP growth target".

 

GDP can be measured either by the sum of what is produced OR the sum of what is purchased, by restricting disbursements from the budget the GDP growth target can be manipulated. The following helps explain:

 

"Written out, the equation for calculating GDP is: GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports). For the gross domestic product, “gross” means that the GDP measures production regardless of the various uses to which the product can be put".

[Parker2100]

Keeps being revised down.  

 

I am glad they are getting more realistic.  But I wonder, if they said 4% before and now they are saying as low as 2.7%.  Of even that is the tral number.

 

No matter what it is in the end, they will say it is higher.

 

This will be a weird year.  Could go either way.

[Forza2002]

Allow me to correct the headline ..... GDP growth target for 2020 set at minus 2.7 to 3.7%...????

[neeray]

I'd like to see the hat.

"What hat" you say ?

The hat that all these projected numbers were pulled from.

[Srikcir]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The council also set export growth target of at least 3 per cent next year

Recently, Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said he expects exports next year to expand by at least 2 per cent since exporters have already adjusted to the trade-war situation and are seeking out new markets.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30378614

 

Maybe Chairman Prayut vetoed his forecast?

[Mavideol]

they should do like China does, they never miss a target, growth no growth it's always 6.1 to 6.2

[Mavideol]

curious as to how they will reach a growth of 3% with exports and having a baht still over appreciated. This week decided to look at the exchange rates of the USD vs some Asian currencies, the USD was appreciated vs the majority of Asian (depreciating) currencies including SGD. MRGT, AUD, NZD and so forth, ONLY one currency kept appreciating, only 1and we all know which one, last week Sat Nov 16 was 1 USD -30.27 today Sat Nov 23 1 USD = 30.209

 

I do think they are afraid of depreciating it, because if they do the US will call them currency manipulators, don't see any other plausible explanation

[saengd]

If BOT were to depreciate THB it would cause a wall of money to flood into Thailand to buy THB, overseas investors, expats, and of course exporters would repatriate foreign earnings sooner. The net effect would be to improve tourism (perhaps) but it would cause THB to strengthen markedly, the problem being that the underlying economics wouldn't have changed one bit yet the rate would have improved substantially. 

 

 

[saengd]

13 hours ago, saengd said:

If BOT were to depreciate THB it would cause a wall of money to flood into Thailand to buy THB, overseas investors, expats, and of course exporters would repatriate foreign earnings sooner. The net effect would be to improve tourism (perhaps) but it would cause THB to strengthen markedly, the problem being that the underlying economics wouldn't have changed one bit yet the rate would have improved substantially. 

 

 

Apologies I screwed part of this up and didn't make it clear, no wonder IS is confused!

 

If the Baht were to be devalued that would cause foreign investors to increase inward investment in Thailand, simply, for them it would mean more Baht per Dollar or Pound, as it would for expats and tourists....the underlying economy would not have changed solely as a result of devaluation.

 

Exporters would also be more inclined to exchange their foreign currency earnings into Baht much sooner, a move that BOT has been trying to delay by weakening the FOREX regulations surrounding THB, for exporters it would mean more Baht per Dollar or Pound. All those things mean that foreign currency would be sold, most notably USD, and THB would be purchased, all of which would cause THB to strengthen.

 

Finally, if THB were devalued holiday makers would get more Baht per their currency and this would increase the attractiveness of Thailand as a holiday destination, ergo, tourism would probably increase. And of course, as more tourists exchange more money into THB, so THB strengthens further.