Thailand Could Deteriorate Into Undeclared Civil War

[geovalin]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

You are very wise but at this time, in 2006, there was some things we could not tell (and still cannot tell in this forum). Nowadays, the whole world knows and writes that "The Thai political system has broken down"... so only one solution: amend it.

[mccw]

this bunch "human rights watch" are always talking a load of shit about things they dont understand; just a bunch of moraly sanctamonious americans with no grasp of practical realities or solutions.

[jcbangkok]

What an idiotic article.

The red mob demand elections in 90 days and the gov't says they will have them a year early (within 7 months).

Sounds like a reason for civil war alright?!?!?!?

As anyone with any common sense knows this is nothing but an insignificant number of lawless mob bent on violence ... might have been something different before but that is all that is left for the most part.

The reds will be going home soon. Their number shrink more everyday as does their drive, motivation, confidence and trust in their leaders. Those left have nothing to do but listen to their red leaders on stage preach to their already converted minds to the point now they are tuning it out.

Likely when the number get really low .. the few remaining will do something very desperate which will call authorities to shut them down as the entire country turns against the entire red movement.

[stevotoo]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

You are very wise but at this time, in 2006, there was some things we could not tell (and still cannot tell in this forum). Nowadays, the whole world knows and writes that "The Thai political system has broken down"... so only one solution: amend it.

There lies the problem. Who has the legitimacy to change it? How can they do it when there is not a functional parliament?

[way2muchcoffee]

I disagree, civil wars are starting with a minority of active people. Some Army and Police officers are deeply involved on either side, they can loose a lot from a return to normalcy if there is no preliminary agreement. (which has to include an amnesty for those who have no blood on their hands)

Could you articulate this last point a little more clearly please. Do the leaders who ordered bombings have blood on their hands or is it just those who threw the bombs? What if many higher-ups are implicated?

[whybother]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

You are very wise but at this time, in 2006, there was some things we could not tell (and still cannot tell in this forum). Nowadays, the whole world knows and writes that "The Thai political system has broken down"... so only one solution: amend it.

There lies the problem. Who has the legitimacy to change it? How can they do it when there is not a functional parliament?

It shouldn't be parliament that changes the constitution.

It should people from all sides and all groups that have an input into the make up, and then for the people to vote on it.

[lannarebirth]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

Pretty good article though they got a few facts wrong. 7/10. Thanks

Edited May 1, 2010 by lannarebirth

[elkangorito]

Kill one man and you are a murderer.

Kill millions of men and you are a conqueror.

Kill them all and you are a God.

- Jean Rostand circa 1939

[whybother]

The government only has x months left! They will be under the rule of the reds come election day! Doesn't make sense to crack heads open, knowing full well that soon they will be out of power...

If the yellows do get elected back in hoooraaay!! problem solved. normal country... govt happy, majority happy, army happy, police happy (or in their place)... and THEN any armed resistance can be dealt with using snipers, anti-terror tactics etc...

Im not supporting the reds militant actions, just wishing they would set a date for elections... pronto

Election dates are set - December 2011.

[geovalin]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

You are very wise but at this time, in 2006, there was some things we could not tell (and still cannot tell in this forum). Nowadays, the whole world knows and writes that "The Thai political system has broken down"... so only one solution: amend it.

There lies the problem. Who has the legitimacy to change it? How can they do it when there is not a functional parliament?

It shouldn't be parliament that changes the constitution.

It should people from all sides and all groups that have an input into the make up, and then for the people to vote on it.

You are right but the point is: Will Democrats, Prem and army accept the result of any election?

[Lodestone]

...many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

It makes it difficult when you're required to speak in code words.

The six-week demonstrations are the latest chapter in years of turmoil pitting the ruling elite against the mainly poor and rural Reds, who say the government illegitimately came to power in 2008.

...

The country is largely split between the Reds and the pro-government "Yellow Shirts", who staged their own street protests that heralded the 2006 coup.

See if you can decode what I've highlighted above -- I'm sorry, I can't decode them for you here without getting myself into trouble. Now take those decoded words and ask yourself why they can't be mentioned anywhere in Thailand except in certain approved ways. The answer is a font of cluefulness as to the cause of the protests.

[stevotoo]

It shouldn't be parliament that changes the constitution.

It should people from all sides and all groups that have an input into the make up, and then for the people to vote on it.

So, who chooses the people who amend the constitution? How do they decide how many of each group should attend? Doesn't that affect the outcome? Suryud's constitution was passed by a referendum- but how many people understood the distinctions between the old and the new, and the ramifications of that constitution?

You are right but the point is: Will Democrats, Prem and army accept the result of any election?

Based on past experience, I doubt it.

[Redsunset]

Wouldn't it be odd if the Philippines managed to have a peaceful and civilised election but nobody noticed because everyone is looking at Thailand??

Hahaha, that is impossible.... corruption in the Philippines makes corruption in Thailand look like heaven on earth... and Estrada is running, as well as a billionaire - like Thaksin.

The Philippines used to be one of the wealthiest Asian nations.... now it is one of the poorest thanks to Marcos and to a certain degree "locked in time" Arroyo

[mccw]

You are right but the point is: Will Democrats, Prem and army accept the result of any election?

more to the point will the red shirts? we've already had an ellection and the group with he most votes are currently the government.

[Redsunset]

this bunch "human rights watch" are always talking a load of shit about things they dont understand; just a bunch of moraly sanctamonious americans with no grasp of practical realities or solutions.

Pretty true except for your obvious bitter slander on Americans... by the way, what nationality are you? I assume your country is perfect?

[Redsunset]

Even if the reds are left alone, there is clearly a divide already. In my opinion, they will not fizzle away, but realizing that they can not achieve their goal and are therefor in danger of spending serious time in prison, the leaders and hardcore reds will escape and probably split into 2 or more groups, going underground to fight a Guerrilla war. This is basically the same as Terrorism full scale and will bring the country to its knees.

You are dealing with people who are way past negotiations, people who have nothing to loose.

Unless the government takes the opportunity and moves in quick, making sure to capture all the leaders, forget Thailand for years to come as a place one would want to live

The government only has x months left! They will be under the rule of the reds come election day! Doesn't make sense to crack heads open, knowing full well that soon they will be out of power...

If the yellows do get elected back in hoooraaay!! problem solved. normal country... govt happy, majority happy, army happy, police happy (or in their place)... and THEN any armed resistance can be dealt with using snipers, anti-terror tactics etc...

Im not supporting the reds militant actions, just wishing they would set a date for elections... pronto

Yes, that is what I thought... just delay delay delay... pretty soon Abhisit will resign as he promised and all will be well!!!

[whybother]

You are right but the point is: Will Democrats, Prem and army accept the result of any election?

The same question would also apply to the reds.

Also, will the reds play fair in their heart lands, and let others campaign freely? If they don't, and then win I would think that we will back to square one.

Given the results of the last election, theoretically the same people would be in government now.

Sure, history is no proof of a future result, but there is no real evidence of any big change of support one way or another.

[midas]

...many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

It makes it difficult when you're required to speak in code words.

The six-week demonstrations are the latest chapter in years of turmoil pitting the ruling elite against the mainly poor and rural Reds, who say the government illegitimately came to power in 2008.

...

The country is largely split between the Reds and the pro-government "Yellow Shirts", who staged their own street protests that heralded the 2006 coup.

See if you can decode what I've highlighted above -- I'm sorry, I can't decode them for you here without getting myself into trouble. Now take those decoded words and ask yourself why they can't be mentioned anywhere in Thailand except in certain approved ways. The answer is a font of cluefulness as to the cause of the protests.

and those that dont agree can't give you a detailed response even if they think you are wrong

[personchester]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

An incisive comment

Not certain about this, overseas governments (within their foreign office) have secret agents as diplomats in their embassies in all countries with which they have diplomatic relations, their duty is to be well imformed in respect of all happenings in that country, particularly in terms of politics.

You can be assured that the political world as a whole is well aware of what is taken place here at the moment, in fact they are bound to know more about the underlying political problems and the history of it (reasons) than the Thai people as a whole.

[geovalin]

1

You are right but the point is: Will Democrats, Prem and army accept the result of any election?

2

Based on past experience, I doubt it.

3

So the only answer these people has is blind violence and eventually Maoist regime.

It's better to accept democracy to avoid that.

[Jerrytheyoung]

I disagree, civil wars are starting with a minority of active people. Some Army and Police officers are deeply involved on either side, they can loose a lot from a return to normalcy if there is no preliminary agreement. (which has to include an amnesty for those who have no blood on their hands)

Could you articulate this last point a little more clearly please. Do the leaders who ordered bombings have blood on their hands or is it just those who threw the bombs? What if many higher-ups are implicated?

In order to stop spiralling into the Civil war, for those who have No Blood on their hands it is important to implement such a law. If no amnesty law, you are promoting a "hunting for witches" as we say in France, which means that a too much important part of police and Army will not be confident: the absence of the amnesty can fuel the continuation of the conflict. But it does not mean no culprits. (example De Gaulle: Following the events of 1958, such an amnesty law has been implemented however few main leaders have been shoot in the Vincennes Castle fortification (death Penalty executed by gun))

------------------------

I take the opportunity to open a little more the discussion:

To continue to throw Red or yellow argument to each other faces is an endless game we should stop as counterproductive and it is participating to the spiralling into Civil war.

We should try to frame how to get out of this mess and avoid the worse.

Some International Bodies propose an International mediation. For living amidst the Thais, we do know that, in the current circumstances, the Gravity is not yet such Thai people can accept it: unrealistic due to the pride of Thai people. The solution must come from insiders.

IMHO, this are my today suggestions, that you are invited to comment in order to build a positive proposal to our Thai friends.

I have already suggested that, the ‘Invisible Hand” introduces a Joker: one name is coming to my mind: Anand. However, there may be some other possibilities in reserve.

Both parties, Democrats/ Yellow and PPP/ red Shirts have to accept a package which is not exactly what they want.

It is clear for most of us, supporters of any Party, that a snap election is not possible in the current atmosphere. More, we have detected flaws in the current Thai Constitution, in the electoral laws in the Anti corruption laws. Most of us have also suggested that a political/administrative decentralisation was an interesting progress: for all those reasons, a strong revision of the Constitution, of elections Rules and anti corruption laws should be introduced before new election. In another way, we need a transition period before elections. It is clear that a “neutral ‘Government has to manage this transition. It is the reason why, “the invisible hand” has to intervene and push on the Front scene a temporary providential leader, clean of any politician involvement. As in my Country in 1958, this temporary Government must have exceptional powers for governing and its action must be limited to an announced short period (6 months for example).

Immediately for ending the conflict, our “third hand” should negotiate an agreement between all parties

In plus of the Laws revision Committees, the following should be introduced:

An immediate social package must be decided for maintaining the income of the farmers. These are short term measures, which should be replaced by a Policy aiming to modernise the Agriculture, decentralise Industries whenever possible and develop Infrastructures. Some Committees for proposing the main features of this policy are created.

Amnesty: it is important for defusing the situation (particularly inside Army and Police), that an amnesty law is promulgated – but not covering those with blood on their hands.

During the transition Government, an in depth reform of Police has to be undertaken in order to clean from briberies, corruption... A Police Anti riot Force has to be created.

[whybother]

we've already had an ellection and the group with he most votes are currently the government.

You know perfectly that you are wrong. No need to argue, the whole world knows that.

Can you please explain why he is wrong? (I've asked for an explanation of this from a red supporter so many times, and there is never any response)

[mccw]

this bunch "human rights watch" are always talking a load of shit about things they dont understand; just a bunch of moraly sanctamonious americans with no grasp of practical realities or solutions.

Pretty true except for your obvious bitter slander on Americans... by the way, what nationality are you? I assume your country is perfect?

they are an american group based out of new york, so think i am justified to call them a "bunch of americans"; but i guess what your really picking up on is that america does seem to have an exceptionaly high per capita population of moraly sanctamonious types always dictating how other countries should be doing things.

its true - i am a bit bitter from my idiot leader of the time, tony blair, following yours into wars etc; yes you are right to impy that my country is not perfect either.

[jcbangkok]

There are two stories in the Post today. The one that starts off with unnecessarily slamming the royal family is pure junk that has wayyyyy too many facts wrong including talking about a 'recent" Australian documentary that was not recent at all .. I don't want to cross the line here but there was just no reason to throw out these comments at all especially considering they are telling half truths at best but why bring up something as being an issue only to talk trash and leave out soooooo very much.

What is crazy is there is another article that includes most of the same news worthy stuff but without the unneeded disrespect and BS.

See Link

[Mitker]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

Found the article, sensitive is the word alright.

Indeed

[KKvampire]

I heard Explosion around Sukhumvit 21, Time to get out soon. The Government has failed to do its duty, Anarchy coming fast

Edited May 1, 2010 by KKvampire

[Jerrytheyoung]

Thailand falling into civil war - no chance, Bangkok, the army and the Monarchy would never allow it.

Talk of such things is, as mjnaus puts it, just a daily dose of drama.

/..../

Tom.

This is where you are wrong: Army and Police are deeply divided, some officers are supporting actively one of the two sides and if there is not a "setting to Neutral" operation, the following months are going to be a serie of "cleaning operations". So, some to protect themselves may enter in open insurrection if the events are inciting to....

(read New Mandala or outside informations... not 100% reliable but will mitigate your position)

[Lodestone]

There are two stories in the Post today. The one that starts off with unnecessarily slamming the royal family is pure junk that has wayyyyy too many facts wrong including talking about a 'recent" Australian documentary that was not recent at all .. I don't want to cross the line here but there was just no reason to throw out these comments at all especially considering they are telling half truths at best but why bring up something as being an issue only to talk trash and leave out soooooo very much.

What is crazy is there is another article that includes most of the same news worthy stuff but without the unneeded disrespect and BS.

See Link

"Another article," uh-huh. Only slightly less juvenile than saying, "Made you look!"

[KKvampire]

Thailand falling into civil war - no chance, Bangkok, the army and the Monarchy would never allow it.

Talk of such things is, as mjnaus puts it, just a daily dose of drama.

/..../

Tom.

This is where you are wrong: Army and Police are deeply divided, some officers are supporting actively one of the two sides and if there is not a "setting to Neutral" operation, the following months are going to be a serie of "cleaning operations". So, some to protect themselves may enter in open insurrection if the events are inciting to....

(read New Mandala or outside informations... not 100% reliable but will mitigate your position)

The army and Police have to be neutral????? Ummm some people say the most staggering things. Define Neutral??? I guess letting Mob Rule and Anarchy reign is your definition

Edited May 1, 2010 by KKvampire

[mccw]

I take the opportunity to open a little more the discussion:

To continue to throw Red or yellow argument to each other faces is an endless game we should stop as counterproductive and it is participating to the spiralling into Civil war.

We should try to frame how to get out of this mess and avoid the worse.

Some International Bodies propose an International mediation. For living amidst the Thais, we do know that, in the current circumstances, the Gravity is not yet such Thai people can accept it: unrealistic due to the pride of Thai people. The solution must come from insiders.

IMHO, this are my today suggestions, that you are invited to comment in order to build a positive proposal to our Thai friends.

I have already suggested that, the 'Invisible Hand" introduces a Joker: one name is coming to my mind: Anand. However, there may be some other possibilities in reserve.

Both parties, Democrats/ Yellow and PPP/ red Shirts have to accept a package which is not exactly what they want.

It is clear for most of us, supporters of any Party, that a snap election is not possible in the current atmosphere. More, we have detected flaws in the current Thai Constitution, in the electoral laws in the Anti corruption laws. Most of us have also suggested that a political/administrative decentralisation was an interesting progress: for all those reasons, a strong revision of the Constitution, of elections Rules and anti corruption laws should be introduced before new election. In another way, we need a transition period before elections. It is clear that a "neutral 'Government has to manage this transition. It is the reason why, "the invisible hand" has to intervene and push on the Front scene a temporary providential leader, clean of any politician involvement. As in my Country in 1958, this temporary Government must have exceptional powers for governing and its action must be limited to an announced short period (6 months for example).

Immediately for ending the conflict, our "third hand" should negotiate an agreement between all parties

In plus of the Laws revision Committees, the following should be introduced:

An immediate social package must be decided for maintaining the income of the farmers. These are short term measures, which should be replaced by a Policy aiming to modernise the Agriculture, decentralise Industries whenever possible and develop Infrastructures. Some Committees for proposing the main features of this policy are created.

Amnesty: it is important for defusing the situation (particularly inside Army and Police), that an amnesty law is promulgated – but not covering those with blood on their hands.

During the transition Government, an in depth reform of Police has to be undertaken in order to clean from briberies, corruption... A Police Anti riot Force has to be created.

i agree with everything you've suggested would be a good way out of this mess.

however- reds have shown they are not prepared to engage in negotiations; if ptp had agreed to negotiate constetution months ago we could be having elections now and none of this take place, instead they chose to do as they have done in hope to seize power.

-also democrat can now see reds weakening and so might not see the need. but i expect abhisit would go along if idea was floated from on high,; possably after another month reds would accept this, but by then gov will have even less reason to deal,

gov of today mayaswell sit it out and let the reds destroy themselves, with hindsight of a few month the population who have upset because of inaction will see how result came about peacefully anf forgive or be more support for gov.

i would like to see dems continue till end of thier term so policies like free education and pensions can be felt by those who presently oppose them