New Skirmish On Thai-Cambodian Border: Thai Army

[Steely Dan]

It only takes one or two, clandestine, and non-army / non-govt. teams of snipers or grenadiers, to touch this off each time peace comes. Someone has a vested interest in this staying flared up. It could be revenge, or prevention of profiting by their competition in some business, like casinos etc.

That could mean it is neither the Thai Army or Hun Sens forces. Everybody here seems to go on the assumption that one or the other side is kicking it off again, when it could as easily be a third party with other motivations. And that can easily explain why BOTH sides cry, 'they started firing first, we just retaliated'

Could I claim today's memorial award by pointing out that the hot season is fast approaching which usually means the reds are preparing to rampage through Bangkok in time for Songkran so perhaps Thaksin has had a word with Hun Sen about opening up a second front against the Thai government this year and so expect to see shadowy figures appear on the border picking off troops from both sides in order to keep the pot boiling.

[calbears]

Vietnamese tanks moving to Preah Vihear to help Cambodia: Unconfirmed online report

16 Feb

2011

LGV

The following translation from French is an

excerpt from a post on Le Grand Village. The original article

in French is available here.

A division of Vietnamese tanks crossed into Cambodia to travel to the border with Thailand. While the UN is pushing for a

dialogue within the ASEAN framework, the protagonists are getting ready for fighting. Vietnamese tanks cross Cambodia and China

provides fighter jets I can tell you and it was a big shock for the

witness who recounted to me the scene [of the Vietnamese tanks]. Twenty years

earlier, the witness saw the arrival of the Vietnamese tanks which came to

“liberate” the country from the Khmer Rouge regime. These Viets stayed and they

looted and took away wealth belonging to a country that was then in agony. The witness thought he would die from fright

when on Saturday, early in the morning, he saw a new column of Viet tanks

following the same path, twenty years later, to “save” Cambodia once

again! These tanks were sent to scare Thailand and to

act as a counterweight in the negotiations. However, Vietnam, just like China,

had obtained well earned compensation for this help. In addition to the

strengthening of their influence within ASEAN vis-à-vis the loss of credibility

of the Thai capitalism, Vietnam and China have their eyes fixed on the oil

reserve recently found in Cambodia (furthermore, Vietnam already offered to

provide oil – which Cambodia needs while waiting to be able to pump out its own

resources – in exchange for future exploration rights). The escalation of violence and the preparation

for war worry NGOs in Cambodia, and they also alarm the expats. The risk of

embroiling the region is small but real. The regional and international powers

will not allow Southeast Asia to be embroiled in fighting. Being too sensitive,

the region has numerous interests and it also attracts the US, as well as China

and India. None of these superpowers want to see a war between Thailand and

Cambodia, and even less within ASEAN itself. Only Thailand would want a war in

order to seek its national popularity which was lost during the Red Shirts

crisis.

[Robby nz]

After giving reasons why Cambodia has things to gain fron inciting a war with Thailand the article finishes with:

Only Thailand would want a war in order to seek its national popularity which was lost during the Red Shirts

crisis.

Which of course is absolute B S.

The Thai Govt is gaining popularity all the time as indicated by the polls and the dismal preformance of the opposition in parliament.

Thailand has nothing to gain and a lot to lose in any war with their neighbours.

[Oberkommando]

It was obvious Vietnam would become involved at some point, they are Cambodia's closest ally and have been for decades including when they were fighting against the US and Thai backed Khmer Rouge guerillas after they had ousted them from power.

Hun Sen the aggressor? Have I missed this latest piece of hilariously misinformed Thaivisa revisionism?

If Hun Sen had been genuine about wanting to develope the temple into an international tourist attraction he would have come and talked to Thailand before he started building his road and getting the temple listed as a world heritage site.

Nonsense, the Thais had already agreed to support the UNESCO bid prior to the Samak Sundaravej administration.

The fascists in the PAD have managed to derail what was a very amicable agreement and would have led to Thailand actually gaining land while Cambodia rightfully maintained control over Preah Vihear temple under a UNESCO ruling.

History is merely repeating itself, the nationalist Bangkok-centric Thais want the temple for themselves. Listen to the PAD rhetoric; they don't want compromise or negotiation!

They want a repeat of 1956 when the Thai Army occupied the temple and had to be removed by the UN after an International Court of Justice ruling in favour of Cambodia in 1962.

[Oberkommando]

After giving reasons why Cambodia has things to gain fron inciting a war with Thailand the article finishes with:

Only Thailand would want a war in order to seek its national popularity which was lost during the Red Shirts

crisis.

Which of course is absolute B S.

The Thai Govt is gaining popularity all the time as indicated by the polls and the dismal preformance of the opposition in parliament.

Thailand has nothing to gain and a lot to lose in any war with their neighbours.

The UNESCO ruling was a loss of face for the PAD and their supporters in this government.

They want the temple, it's that simple. They have managed to turn it back into a territorial issue to try to get their military involved to bully Cambodia.

The current government owe the PAD and now the PAD are using their leverage.

This Thai government still lacks support 2-1 in the majority of the country and will never win a fair election with an organised opposition.

Not to mention their tenure has been an unmitigated disaster from start to finish with all the hallmarks of a typically weak Democrat Party cabinet pinned down by military control.

[Oberkommando]

Wouldn't you want the UN to be around if you had a much stronger army camped on your border with every sign that that army was apparently uncontrolled by its government and where political instability in its nation meant that irrational acts of aggression could not be ruled out?

I don't like acting as an apologist for a despot but I have some sympathy with Cambodia on this dispute.

Well said.

[Buchholz]

History is merely repeating itself

Speaking of repetitious history...

Twenty years earlier, the witness saw the arrival of the Vietnamese tanks which came to “liberate” the country from the Khmer Rouge regime. These Viets stayed and they looted and took away wealth belonging to a country that was then in agony.

The witness thought he would die from fright when on Saturday, early in the morning, he saw a new column of Viet tanks following the same path, twenty years later, to “save” Cambodia once again!

[Steely Dan]

Vietnamese tanks moving to Preah Vihear to help Cambodia: Unconfirmed online report

16 Feb

2011

LGV

The following translation from French is an

excerpt from a post on Le Grand Village. The original article

in French is available here.

A division of Vietnamese tanks crossed into Cambodia to travel to the border with Thailand. While the UN is pushing for a

dialogue within the ASEAN framework, the protagonists are getting ready for fighting. Vietnamese tanks cross Cambodia and China

provides fighter jets I can tell you and it was a big shock for the

witness who recounted to me the scene [of the Vietnamese tanks]. Twenty years

earlier, the witness saw the arrival of the Vietnamese tanks which came to

“liberate” the country from the Khmer Rouge regime. These Viets stayed and they

looted and took away wealth belonging to a country that was then in agony. The witness thought he would die from fright

when on Saturday, early in the morning, he saw a new column of Viet tanks

following the same path, twenty years later, to “save” Cambodia once

again! These tanks were sent to scare Thailand and to

act as a counterweight in the negotiations. However, Vietnam, just like China,

had obtained well earned compensation for this help. In addition to the

strengthening of their influence within ASEAN vis-à-vis the loss of credibility

of the Thai capitalism, Vietnam and China have their eyes fixed on the oil

reserve recently found in Cambodia (furthermore, Vietnam already offered to

provide oil – which Cambodia needs while waiting to be able to pump out its own

resources – in exchange for future exploration rights). The escalation of violence and the preparation

for war worry NGOs in Cambodia, and they also alarm the expats. The risk of

embroiling the region is small but real. The regional and international powers

will not allow Southeast Asia to be embroiled in fighting. Being too sensitive,

the region has numerous interests and it also attracts the US, as well as China

and India. None of these superpowers want to see a war between Thailand and

Cambodia, and even less within ASEAN itself. Only Thailand would want a war in

order to seek its national popularity which was lost during the Red Shirts

crisis.

This confirms my prediction several weeks ago that Hun Sen would not hesitate to use Cambodian oil reserves as a bargaining chip to enlist the help of Vietnam should Thailand continue sabre rattling. In case the significance of this has escaped anyone this is a game changer as the Vietnamese are formidable fighters who beat the U.S even without air cover. Not to mention the fact that the temple is the one issue that unites Cambodians - Apart from some Thai nationalists I can't see the same unity amongst Thais.

I will continue my analogy of Thailand playing drafts when everyone else is playing chess and make a new prediction. Should Thailand try to escalate this by enlisting the help of U.S military support they are risking here being the battleground for the (thus far) economic war between the U.S and China. A lot has to go wrong before it comes to this but the presence of Vietnamese tanks should be a big big warning to Thailand.

[Steely Dan]

After giving reasons why Cambodia has things to gain fron inciting a war with Thailand the article finishes with:

Only Thailand would want a war in order to seek its national popularity which was lost during the Red Shirts

crisis.

Which of course is absolute B S.

The Thai Govt is gaining popularity all the time as indicated by the polls and the dismal preformance of the opposition in parliament.

Thailand has nothing to gain and a lot to lose in any war with their neighbours.

Well as it stands the democrats have estimated at close to half the Thai population on their side so they do not need war to bolster their popularity, especially as Pheu Thai have descended into farce. This is imho all about the PAD who have lost a lot of their grass roots support and are trying to play the nationalism card to bolster their popularity. The scary and unknown factor is to what extent certain factions in the military may be supporting PAD for their own benefit - this could be the usual hidden powers at work or even down to events we are not allowed to discuss.

[DP25]

A 'division' of Vietnamese tanks? Give me a break. I know Cambodia's poor but there has to be someone in the country with a cell phone to take a picture of one of them.

[Buchholz]

Vietnamese tanks moving to Preah Vihear to help Cambodia: Unconfirmed online report

This confirms my prediction several weeks ago

Actually, it doesn't.

In addition to the disclaimer in the headline of the linked article is a disclaimer at the end of it.

KI-Media note: We cannot confirm the above report.

.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Buchholz

[Steely Dan]

Vietnamese tanks moving to Preah Vihear to help Cambodia: Unconfirmed online report

This confirms my prediction several weeks ago

Actually, it doesn't.

In addition to the disclaimer in the headline of the linked article is a disclaimer at the end of it.

KI-Media note: We cannot confirm the above report.

.

To use a line from a Clint Eastwood film 'Do you feel lucky punk?' China and Vietnam are both going to be interested in Cambodian oil and gas resources and it is far to close to their backyards to let the U.S or it's allies stake a claim. I grant you the report is unconfirmed but it is a move I predicted and is it worth taking a chance over 1.8 sq miles of land?

[Buchholz]

^ I agree that one of the core issues of all this is really over the askew and laughably drawn maritime border line that turns the Gulf of Thailand into the Gulf of Cambodia if one were to accept this incredulous demarcation.

[Steely Dan]

^ I agree that one of the core issues of all this is really over the askew and laughably drawn maritime border line that turns the Gulf of Thailand into the Gulf of Cambodia if one were to accept this incredulous demarcation.

Ah, I'm glad we agree on this being a core issue. I don't know what deal Thaksin may have struck with Hun Sen regarding the temple and the division of maritime resources, but I suspect it went something along the lines of you develop the temple as long as PTT get the contract to explore for oil in waters agreed to be Cambodian. When the PAD started kicking up a stink about the temple this may have scuppered any agreement reached on oil, if so Thailand stand to lose on both issues if Vietnam/China get exploration contracts and the 1962 ruling on the temple remains in force. I'm sure Khun Abhisit is well aware of this but events outside his control are causing him big problems.

[Buchholz]

^ I agree that one of the core issues of all this is really over the askew and laughably drawn maritime border line that turns the Gulf of Thailand into the Gulf of Cambodia if one were to accept this incredulous demarcation.

Ah, I'm glad we agree on this being a core issue. I don't know what deal Thaksin may have struck with Hun Sen regarding the temple and the division of maritime resources

Careful now... that sort of thinking is subject to being called out as "paranoid"

It shows some of the absurdity of thinking when maritime borders can be written so cock-eyed.

The absurdity of thinking is not about some paranoid concern about Cambodia's territorial or maritime ambitions at the expense of Thailand

[Robby nz]

A 'division' of Vietnamese tanks? Give me a break. I know Cambodia's poor but there has to be someone in the country with a cell phone to take a picture of one of them.

Could that be one?

[mkawish]

It was obvious Vietnam would become involved at some point, they are Cambodia's closest ally and have been for decades including when they were fighting against the US and Thai backed Khmer Rouge guerillas after they had ousted them from power.

Hun Sen the aggressor? Have I missed this latest piece of hilariously misinformed Thaivisa revisionism?

If Hun Sen had been genuine about wanting to develope the temple into an international tourist attraction he would have come and talked to Thailand before he started building his road and getting the temple listed as a world heritage site.

Nonsense, the Thais had already agreed to support the UNESCO bid prior to the Samak Sundaravej administration.

The fascists in the PAD have managed to derail what was a very amicable agreement and would have led to Thailand actually gaining land while Cambodia rightfully maintained control over Preah Vihear temple under a UNESCO ruling.

History is merely repeating itself, the nationalist Bangkok-centric Thais want the temple for themselves. Listen to the PAD rhetoric; they don't want compromise or negotiation!

They want a repeat of 1956 when the Thai Army occupied the temple and had to be removed by the UN after an International Court of Justice ruling in favour of Cambodia in 1962.

The fascists in the PAD have managed to derail what was a very amicable agreement and would have led to Thailand actually gaining land while Cambodia rightfully maintained control over Preah Vihear temple under a UNESCO ruling.

QUESTION 1: Thailand would gain which part of land, pls?

History is merely repeating itself, the nationalist Bangkok-centric Thais want the temple for themselves. Listen to the PAD rhetoric; they don't want compromise or negotiation!

QUESTION 2: Do you personally understand enough Thai language while listening to PAD daily presentation?

QUESTION 3: Which PAD leader(s) did make that statement that you cited that PAD did not want compromise or negotiation?

Your answers would help many of us to understand the PAD motives much better, ok?

Did not want to put you on the spot but I am really interested in your spurious claims though. Thx much.