Work On High-Speed Rail Project Faces Two-Year Delay: Thailand

[attento]

One economic feasibility study has already concluded that the Bangkok Chiang Mai route wouldn't have a big enough demand to repay the investment, but that doesn't figure in the math if it's the prime minister's home town.

Is there any reliable evidence that any HS train project from anywhere in the world is economically sound ?

This is not a leading question, I really don't know the answer.

[Nigel1500]

For all the pessimistic, cynical and sarcastic remarks farang are posting here I'm willing to bet Thailand has HSR before USA, Canada and Australia.

[Reasonableman]

For all the pessimistic, cynical and sarcastic remarks farang are posting here I'm willing to bet Thailand has HSR before USA, Canada and Australia.

What do you bet, exactly? And when should we expect a dividend? ;-)

[Bagwan]

Quote from another thread on the same subject:-

Here we go with a bunch of stupid ignorant negative comments about something positive the Thais are trying to do to improve conditions. Go home.

I won't mention the poster's name to save him from embarrassment but will wait with bated breath for his next pie in the sky pronouncement.

2018 - yeah right O.

[sirchai]

"The study is expected to be completed next month," he said.

Got my Pick Up truck back after being in a garage for 10 months after a serious accident , just to find out that the frame and chassis wasn't repaired.

Mitsubishi does it again now and I'm just waiting another two months now.. Open end.

So much if people here are expecting something. There won't be a high speed train within the next five years, I'd bet.......

[luckyman]

They should hire that guy that also 'studied' the bomb-detectors..!!

[ratcatcher]

For all the pessimistic, cynical and sarcastic remarks farang are posting here I'm willing to bet Thailand has HSR before USA, Canada and Australia.

Your point about the pessimism, cynicism & sarcasm from farangs may be valid but for High Speed Rail to be viable you need important destinations for the trains to travel to and from.

The Thai system is narrow gauge unlike that of China and India, the two most important potential connectors. Maybe SRT should better spend the money on improving the whole system and converting to standard gauge (4'81/2")

Take a look at a map of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan etc and you will see many large, important cities and ports. The Kingdom of Thailand is blessed with several largish cities, Bangkok being the most important. However, how many Thai businessmen wish to travel via HST to the large industrial towns of Ubon, Udon, Khon Kaen, or Chiang Mai? Most will fly, it's faster.

Better to bring the present railway system into the late 20th century first, with newer more efficient locomotives and passenger and freight cars. The main ridership will still be poorer Thais.

Some of the rolling stock on the SRT is reminiscent of the UK between wars.

Anyway I wish the Thais all the luck with their railway improvements and hope that the usual financial leakages are kept to a minimum (wishful thinking)

[hellodolly]

AirAsia CNX-BKK for around B2000 (slightly more or less depending on flight) and around 1.25 hrs.

Any guesstimate on High-Speed Rail fares and travel time? If the same fare as AA, will take 300,000 passenger trips to GROSS the cost of the feasibility study.

They are doing more than one feasibility study 4 I believe. Two Bangkok to Chiang Mai.

I choose the Japanese one.

[hellodolly]

For all the pessimistic, cynical and sarcastic remarks farang are posting here I'm willing to bet Thailand has HSR before USA, Canada and Australia.

Your point about the pessimism, cynicism & sarcasm from farangs may be valid but for High Speed Rail to be viable you need important destinations for the trains to travel to and from.

The Thai system is narrow gauge unlike that of China and India, the two most important potential connectors. Maybe SRT should better spend the money on improving the whole system and converting to standard gauge (4'81/2")

Take a look at a map of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan etc and you will see many large, important cities and ports. The Kingdom of Thailand is blessed with several largish cities, Bangkok being the most important. However, how many Thai businessmen wish to travel via HST to the large industrial towns of Ubon, Udon, Khon Kaen, or Chiang Mai? Most will fly, it's faster.

Better to bring the present railway system into the late 20th century first, with newer more efficient locomotives and passenger and freight cars. The main ridership will still be poorer Thais.

Some of the rolling stock on the SRT is reminiscent of the UK between wars.

Anyway I wish the Thais all the luck with their railway improvements and hope that the usual financial leakages are kept to a minimum (wishful thinking)

You state

"Maybe SRT should better spend the money on improving the whole system and converting to standard gauge (4'81/2")"

Good idea but to do that they would have to put in a ,lot more rails for double tracking. Nothing modern about sitting by the side of the rail waiting for another train going the other way to get by.

[otherstuff1957]

The concept of a high-speed rail link is interesting, but I do wonder about the economics. The OP says that this project will cost 200 billion Baht (That's 200,000,000,000 baht). Currently a one-way ticket from BKK to Chiang costs about 2,000 baht. If the train is priced the same, it will take 100,000,000 passengers (100 million) to pay off the cost of construction...

Now, let's assume that we have 500 passengers per train, and the trains run 8 times per day in each direction. That would be 8000 passengers per day. 100 million divided by 8000 passengers means that the construction cost would be paid off in 12,500 days or 34.25 years. If, however, we only have 4000 passengers, we would have to wait 68.5 years years to pay off the cost of construction. Of course, all of these figures disregard the cost of operation.

I wonder how many people currently fly to Chiang Mai daily?

I like the idea of a high-speed rail link, but I suspect that a link from BKK to Pattaya might be more economically feasible.

[planr]

expediting: tr.v. ex·pe·dit·ed, ex·pe·dit·ing, ex·pe·dites. 1. To speed up the progress of; accelerate.

See LakeGeneve's post in the other HSR thread. In the last two years, the SRT has effectively gone from zero (outside of tracks serving points between BKK and Laem Chabang for freight movement) to more than zero. I think that fits Webster's definition quite well.

Is there any reliable evidence that any HS train project from anywhere in the world is economically sound ?

This is not a leading question, I really don't know the answer.

It is a difficult question to answer as HSR services are typically operated by rail companies with diverse portfolios (including non-HSR rail transport, real estate, advertising, etc) like DB in Germany (ICE) and JREast / JRCentral in Japan (Shinkansen). Even in annual financial reports, while operating revenue from HSR is typically disclosed, operating expenses from HSR-only are not disclosed as far as I can tell. Thus, you can't really say HSR is "profitable" even if the companies themselves are (which both JR's are).

If you define "economically" sound as meaning "operating revenues exceed operating expenses" for HSR-only operations, my guess is that the answer to your question is no.

That said, the indirect benefits that accrue (like increased economic development in station areas) can "offset" the cost of building HSR, depending on your perspective.

Your point about the pessimism, cynicism & sarcasm from farangs may be valid but for High Speed Rail to be viable you need important destinations for the trains to travel to and from.

The Thai system is narrow gauge unlike that of China and India, the two most important potential connectors. Maybe SRT should better spend the money on improving the whole system and converting to standard gauge (4'81/2")

Re-gauging the Thai network from meter gauge to standard gauge is extremely expensive. There are two very good reasons aside from cost to upgrade the existing meter gauge system by double-tracking and improving existing tracks.

1) All other neighboring Southeast Asian countries use meter gauge track, making connections with Burma, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia very simple. It is not until you get to China (standard gauge) or India (broad gauge) where incompatibility occurs.

2) With high quality tracks and signaling, appropriate curves and grades and the requisite maintenance, meter gauge rolling stock can travel up to 160 km/h (100mph), which is plenty fast for freight and quite useful as a passenger service... for perspective in Thailand, the Airport Link's Express Line might hit 160 km/h on a good day (it's max operating speed).

The concept of a high-speed rail link is interesting, but I do wonder about the economics. The OP says that this project will cost 200 billion Baht (That's 200,000,000,000 baht). Currently a one-way ticket from BKK to Chiang costs about 2,000 baht. If the train is priced the same, it will take 100,000,000 passengers (100 million) to pay off the cost of construction...

Now, let's assume that we have 500 passengers per train, and the trains run 8 times per day in each direction. That would be 8000 passengers per day. 100 million divided by 8000 passengers means that the construction cost would be paid off in 12,500 days or 34.25 years. If, however, we only have 4000 passengers, we would have to wait 68.5 years years to pay off the cost of construction. Of course, all of these figures disregard the cost of operation.

I wonder how many people currently fly to Chiang Mai daily?

I like the idea of a high-speed rail link, but I suspect that a link from BKK to Pattaya might be more economically feasible.

About 2.6 million people flew between Suvarnibhumi / Don Muang and Chiang Mai in 2010, so that's 7,100 a day. I would guess you can double that number for 1st year traffic if it opened tomorrow based on people shifting from existing rail, bus, and car as well as those making intermediary stops (like in Phitsanulok). In the longer term, ridership will certainly increase for a variety of reasons, but you're right that the proposal to Rayong is much more viable, especially in the short term.

[OzMick]

Re-gauging the Thai network from meter gauge to standard gauge is extremely expensive. There are two very good reasons aside from cost to upgrade the existing meter gauge system by double-tracking and improving existing tracks.

1) All other neighboring Southeast Asian countries use meter gauge track, making connections with Burma, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia very simple. It is not until you get to China (standard gauge) or India (broad gauge) where incompatibility occurs.

2) With high quality tracks and signaling, appropriate curves and grades and the requisite maintenance, meter gauge rolling stock can travel up to 160 km/h (100mph), which is plenty fast for freight and quite useful as a passenger service... for perspective in Thailand, the Airport Link's Express Line might hit 160 km/h on a good day (it's max operating speed).

The concept of a high-speed rail link is interesting, but I do wonder about the economics. The OP says that this project will cost 200 billion Baht (That's 200,000,000,000 baht). Currently a one-way ticket from BKK to Chiang costs about 2,000 baht. If the train is priced the same, it will take 100,000,000 passengers (100 million) to pay off the cost of construction...

Now, let's assume that we have 500 passengers per train, and the trains run 8 times per day in each direction. That would be 8000 passengers per day. 100 million divided by 8000 passengers means that the construction cost would be paid off in 12,500 days or 34.25 years. If, however, we only have 4000 passengers, we would have to wait 68.5 years years to pay off the cost of construction. Of course, all of these figures disregard the cost of operation.

I wonder how many people currently fly to Chiang Mai daily?

I like the idea of a high-speed rail link, but I suspect that a link from BKK to Pattaya might be more economically feasible.

About 2.6 million people flew between Suvarnibhumi / Don Muang and Chiang Mai in 2010, so that's 7,100 a day. I would guess you can double that number for 1st year traffic if it opened tomorrow based on people shifting from existing rail, bus, and car as well as those making intermediary stops (like in Phitsanulok). In the longer term, ridership will certainly increase for a variety of reasons, but you're right that the proposal to Rayong is much more viable, especially in the short term.

Airport link is standard gauge.

[Bagwan]

Do people realise that if converting to standard gauge the route will have to change in many hilly or mountainous places. The faster that the train travels then the straighter the track needs to be.

The radius of curves will have to be significantly less which invariably means detours or expensive tunnels and bridges. Of course the necessary increase in the budget (which will overrun for sure) means more cash for the dark forces.

[dangman]

AirAsia CNX-BKK for around B2000 (slightly more or less depending on flight) and around 1.25 hrs.

Any guesstimate on High-Speed Rail fares and travel time? If the same fare as AA, will take 300,000 passenger trips to GROSS the cost of the feasibility study.

They are doing more than one feasibility study 4 I believe. Two Bangkok to Chiang Mai.

I choose the Japanese one.

with tax and baggage it's around 3,000 baht...

and the train will be done with the chinese.. as has spoken about for 2 years.

look at the chinese trains.. light years ahead of usa, australia, etc.

they'll get this right.

and you say demand won't recuperate costs..

but that's at current levels... expect the demand to increase.

this is a good thing.

[jerrysteve]

Lets hope if it is ever built, it isn't built with the same low quality standards by the same low quality contractors

with the same low quality materials as the Airport was built with.

[OzMick]

AirAsia CNX-BKK for around B2000 (slightly more or less depending on flight) and around 1.25 hrs.

Any guesstimate on High-Speed Rail fares and travel time? If the same fare as AA, will take 300,000 passenger trips to GROSS the cost of the feasibility study.

They are doing more than one feasibility study 4 I believe. Two Bangkok to Chiang Mai.

I choose the Japanese one.

with tax and baggage it's around 3,000 baht...

and the train will be done with the chinese.. as has spoken about for 2 years.

look at the chinese trains.. light years ahead of usa, australia, etc.

they'll get this right.

and you say demand won't recuperate costs..

but that's at current levels... expect the demand to increase.

this is a good thing.

Right - the most expensive flight with a heap of baggage approaches B3000, but the red-eye is B1910 all-up inclusive and with a 7kg baggage allowance. And that is without advance booking discounts.

OTOH the SRT fare is B281 for 2nd class, and B121 for 3rd. Do you think the majority of Thai people would want an upgrade of their existing service or a high-speed version that they can't afford?

A high-speed rail service would be a good thing for those who can afford it, like you perhaps. In Thailand they have a weird regard for white elephants, this is just another.

[dcutman]

For all the pessimistic, cynical and sarcastic remarks farang are posting here I'm willing to bet Thailand has HSR before USA, Canada and Australia.

What do you bet, exactly? And when should we expect a dividend? ;-)

Nigel

I would be willing to bet there are many more Thai's than Farang making the same remarks. I would also be willing to bet, most Thai's would like this kind of money first be spent on updating the outdated and neglected infustructure in their country that would benefit many many more than a "High speed show pony" as Reasonableman so accuratly puts it, in his previous post.

[Ricardo]

Thai/SRT rail-fares are somewhat more than suggested, once you add-on the Rapid/Express/air-con-sleeper surcharges, I suspect.

But talking about this new rail-system, it seems to me that there are really three different objectives, and the distinction between them are being blurred by the politicians, no great surprise there !

Firstly, there's the upgrade of existing meter-gauge single-tracks to dual-track, like the line out of Laem Chabang port (completed yet ?). And semi-mythical new lines like Surat-Phuket or doing the last few miles into Rayong.

Secondly there's the popular high-speed lines-for-Thai-passengers, which looks good to voters at election-time, but (as the Lampang-Chiang Rai line demonstrates) rarely gets beyond the pre-election-promise stage. Didn't PTP promise completion of this network by 2015 ? Fat chance ... they won't even have been started by then !

Lastly there's what the Chinese want, and are willing to build & finance, which is the Thai section of their China-Singapore high-speed freight-line, via Laos/Isaan or perhaps via Chiang Rai. Whether that might also carry a few less-profitable passenger-trains for locals or not, it's unlikely to be the part of the project which generates payback, that would come from the transit-time saved for Chinese exports.

It's a safe bet that nothing will be completed by 2015, possibly started by 2018 is achieveable, but expect continued-wrangling over the division-of-the-spoils and disputes about whose recently-acquired land will be required to be purchased at inflated-prices, that's just the way of major projects here.

The low-cost-airlines & bus-operators can rest easy for some time to come, all just IMO, of course.

[harrry]

Do people realise that if converting to standard gauge the route will have to change in many hilly or mountainous places. The faster that the train travels then the straighter the track needs to be.

The radius of curves will have to be significantly less which invariably means detours or expensive tunnels and bridges. Of course the necessary increase in the budget (which will overrun for sure) means more cash for the dark forces.

I presume this is a case where less means more.

Redesigning the routes would mean the distance is less too.

[ratcatcher]

Thai/SRT rail-fares are somewhat more than suggested, once you add-on the Rapid/Express/air-con-sleeper surcharges, I suspect.

But talking about this new rail-system, it seems to me that there are really three different objectives, and the distinction between them are being blurred by the politicians, no great surprise there !

Firstly, there's the upgrade of existing meter-gauge single-tracks to dual-track, like the line out of Laem Chabang port (completed yet ?). And semi-mythical new lines like Surat-Phuket or doing the last few miles into Rayong.

Secondly there's the popular high-speed lines-for-Thai-passengers, which looks good to voters at election-time, but (as the Lampang-Chiang Rai line demonstrates) rarely gets beyond the pre-election-promise stage. Didn't PTP promise completion of this network by 2015 ? Fat chance ... they won't even have been started by then !

Lastly there's what the Chinese want, and are willing to build & finance, which is the Thai section of their China-Singapore high-speed freight-line, via Laos/Isaan or perhaps via Chiang Rai. Whether that might also carry a few less-profitable passenger-trains for locals or not, it's unlikely to be the part of the project which generates payback, that would come from the transit-time saved for Chinese exports.

It's a safe bet that nothing will be completed by 2015, possibly started by 2018 is achieveable, but expect continued-wrangling over the division-of-the-spoils and disputes about whose recently-acquired land will be required to be purchased at inflated-prices, that's just the way of major projects here.

The low-cost-airlines & bus-operators can rest easy for some time to come, all just IMO, of course.

If the Dawei "Deep Sea Port" project in Myanmar is moving along , would it not make more sense for China to use the Andaman coast as a terminus, as opposed to Singapore? Just wondering. Of course completion maybe a decade away, who knows?

[Tanaka]

I for one would never ever contemplate using a high speed train in Thailand. My life is to precious.

I second that. In Udon province they have been working on the new rails and I have seen their competence. I will not risk my life in a high speed train here either.

[Nigel1500]

... The Thai system is narrow gauge unlike that of China and India, the two most important potential connectors. Maybe SRT should better spend the money on improving the whole system and converting to standard gauge (4'81/2")

Take a look at a map of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan etc and you will see many large, important cities and ports. The Kingdom of Thailand is blessed with several largish cities, Bangkok being the most important. However, how many Thai businessmen wish to travel via HST to the large industrial towns of Ubon, Udon, Khon Kaen, or Chiang Mai? Most will fly, it's faster.

Better to bring the present railway system into the late 20th century first, with newer more efficient locomotives and passenger and freight cars. The main ridership will still be poorer Thais.

Some of the rolling stock on the SRT is reminiscent of the UK between wars.

Anyway I wish the Thais all the luck with their railway improvements and hope that the usual financial leakages are kept to a minimum (wishful thinking)

True, the Thai railway system is a narrow gauge. Actually, they use the metre gauge. This gauge is also used in Switzerland and Spain, quite successfully, and both of those countries integrate into the rest of the European network easily enough. On some lines this is done with duplicated tracks, on others they use gauge-changing wheel sets.

You also raise Japan as an example. My favourite destination ... and, specifically, Japanese railways are my forte ... you might have known from my avatar that I'm a rail fan ... In Japan, most of the rail network is narrow gauge 3'6", known as Cape gauge. But until the end of WWII, Japan was standard gauge. General McArthur ordered the rails be relaid and all rolling stock be changed over to 3'6" to prevent the network from being used by the military. It was a successful ploy. Yet, today, the shinkansen all run on standard gauge (Stephenson).

HSR uses entirely separate lines. In fact, there are fundamental problems with seeing visual signals when travelling over 200km/h, so the trains themselves use a sophisticated singnalling system that appears on the driver's console. They simply can't run on local lines because the technology is quite different.

That said, Japan is currently developing a shinkansen that will have gauge-changing bogies. I believe it will be operating in the north-west of Honshu. Part way through the journey, the line will convert to 3'6" and the train speed will be limited to 150km/h. I believe this is an economical solution to getting through the mountains.

So, while you are correct in pointing out that Thailand uses metre gauge, you weren't aware that, for other reasons, the HSR will need dedicated lines.

With regard to flying being quicker, again I disagree. There will still be flights to the major regional centres but trains are more convenient. Prices are fixed. Wait times are shorter. They deliver you to the centre of the city. You must factor in the time getting to Suvarnabhumi from downtown Bangkok, the time to check in, the waiting time, the boarding time, the flight (of course) ... and at the other end, say Chiang Mai, the time to collect any luggage, and the time back into the city centre (not that great). Rail also opens up corridors that are bypassed by flight, meaning that a lot of people can commute further to work daily. Most passengers won't travel the full length from Bangkok to Chiang Mai on the train. Cities in between will grow.

Cheers

[Nigel1500]

The concept of a high-speed rail link is interesting, but I do wonder about the economics. The OP says that this project will cost 200 billion Baht (That's 200,000,000,000 baht). Currently a one-way ticket from BKK to Chiang costs about 2,000 baht. If the train is priced the same, it will take 100,000,000 passengers (100 million) to pay off the cost of construction...

Now, let's assume that we have 500 passengers per train, and the trains run 8 times per day in each direction. That would be 8000 passengers per day. 100 million divided by 8000 passengers means that the construction cost would be paid off in 12,500 days or 34.25 years. If, however, we only have 4000 passengers, we would have to wait 68.5 years years to pay off the cost of construction. Of course, all of these figures disregard the cost of operation.

I wonder how many people currently fly to Chiang Mai daily?

I like the idea of a high-speed rail link, but I suspect that a link from BKK to Pattaya might be more economically feasible.

Except for four things:

1. Pricing rail doesn't work that way. They will be able to offer a one-way trip from BKK to Chiang for slightly more and still fill trains. This is because you haven't factored in the convenience of a downtown location, time and tolls to the airport, fuel for private car, or cost of taxi etc. The Japanese Shinkansen from Tokyo to Fukuoka is more expensive than flying yet all reserved seats on the shinkansen are booked out days, even weeks in advance and unreserved cars are standing room only during peak hours. Why is that? Because of the next point ...

2. Rail opens up transport corridors. A lot of PAX won't travel the whole length of the line. Eg: in Japan someone boarding at Fukuoka might get off at Hiroshima. The same seat might be occupied by another PAX at Himeiji, who gets off at Osaka. The same seat might be sold a third time at Kyoto with that PAX riding through to Tokyo.

3. Because of the above, a seat can be sold multiple times on a single journey. There is a "Base" fare, for the privilege of travelling HSR across the minimum distance. So, someone travelling half the length might be paying 70% of the fare. On a long journey, such as the Japanese example above, a seat might be worth 250% of the single full-trip fare.

4. You haven't factored in bus and car PAX at all. In Japan, there is a shinkansen leaving Tokyo for Osaka every 2 minutes during peak hour. The country has double the population of Thailand. So, lets say Bkk to Chiang every 4 minutes ... no? ... because Thailand is just not as cosmopolitan, is it? ... let's say Thailand is 1/3 as cosmopolitan. So we'll say one train ever 12 minutes ... that's 5 per hour during peak hour. I would say that within 5 years there would be 40-50 trains per day in each direction on that one line.

Do the math again ... the operator will make a killing.

Cheers

[Sayonarax]

B600 million would be better spent expediting the double-tracking of existing lines, which WILL increase the speed of the affordable rail service we now have.

Don't use logic with illogical people.

[Sayonarax]

You'll never catch me riding on a train designed by the Chinese.

[planr]

If the Dawei "Deep Sea Port" project in Myanmar is moving along , would it not make more sense for China to use the Andaman coast as a terminus, as opposed to Singapore? Just wondering. Of course completion maybe a decade away, who knows?

In our lifetime, likely not. The Chinese plans for linking Kunming and Singapore have more to do with integrating the logistics network of SE Asia for exports (and imports) directly from SE Asian countries, rather than linking SW China with the rest of the world. Yunnan / Sichuan / Chongqing already have good transport connections with Shenzhen and Hong Kong for waterborne trade and a new rail line that links Chongqing with Germany (and other parts of Europe) opened last year, reducing the transit time for goods from SW from about 4 weeks to about 2 weeks.

You'll never catch me riding on a train designed by the Chinese.

When you spend time in Bangkok, make sure to avoid traveling on the BTS Silom Line or the Airport Rail Link.