passon

12 minutes ago, jvs said:

It's bigots like you that prove the flaws of humanity.  Using stereotypes like Adam and Steve, or comparing gay marriage to bestiality, pedophilia, or using disgusting terms like fags, he-shes, and lesbos is divisive, hateful, and hostile. Adam and Steve?  Were you a witness to the beginning of time?  Your Bible is a book of manufactured stories.  Your logic, or lack thereof justifies persecution because intolerance exist in other countries.  Your principles are flawed and infinitesimal compared to developed nations that embrace humanity, equality, and freedom.  You seem to be an advocate of suppression, repression, and disenfranchisement.  I'm a gay man and your use of the word fag is offensive, destructive, racist, and bigoted.  You are a small minded individual who lacks compassion, and objectivity.  You should move to one of those 70 countries that you outlined in your bigoted rant that has a more anaclitic society that shares your lack of values.  

Was it from a previous post?  I only viewed it under your name. I would be more than happy to send my thoughts their way.  Glad to know it wasn't you and that you see their comments as, "drivel."  I have dealt with people who think like this for well over 40 years.  It's very personal for me.  

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's exactly how I feel about it. I generally don't oppose "normal" gay marriage, but I think transgenderism (people who actually think they are the opposite gender) is a mental illness that should not be encouraged. Unfortunately in most countries what happens after gay rights are granted is indeed that other groups like transgenders and pedophiles demand "rights" too.

You generally oppose "normal" gay marriage?  I am always amazed by heterosexuals who seem to think they have some exclusive right to marriage.  That love is only predicated by the opposite sex and should only be displayed or recognized as normal within a practicing society.  That is extremely pretentious on your part or the part of anyone who defines normal to be by their own set of rules.  You think being transgender is a mental illness?  You could not be more wrong.  Actually, your analogy of mental illness is the principle contributing factor of gender dysphoria.

Referencing the diagnostic criteria of DSM-5 [diagnostic criteria depression], or the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, it provides for one overreaching diagnosis of gender dysphoria with separate criteria for children and for addesscents, and adults.  Gender dysphoria refers to the conflict and stress resulting from identifying with opposite gender you were not born into.  In other words, the way we [society] treats transgenders by shunning them and making them fell less than the whole of society and therefore identifying them as suffering from a mental illness all contribute to gender dysphoria.   

Your thinking is not the solution, or consistent with an educated prognosis, it is in fact the problem developed with uninformed thinking and prejudicial conclusions.

On 7/12/2020 at 2:22 PM, jvs said:

Of course there should be no gay marriages in Thailand or anywhere in the world. There's the age old saying "God made Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve". 

 

It's illegal to be LGBT in 70 countries, and you could be given the death penalty in 12 countries. In Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan this death penalty is regularly imposed across the county. You can also be punished by death in some provinces of Somalia and Nigeria.  A further six, have legal or religious provisions that also allow for the death penalty for consensual same-sex sexual acts between adults. In Afghanistan, Brunei, Mauritania, Pakistan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the law exists, but there is little evidence LGBT+ are facing the death penalty.

 

Once a country starts accepting this they will start accepting other sick stuff like beastiality, pedophilia, etc. Same same but different.

 

There are a lot of people who come to live in Thailand because fags are not accepted in their countries and they know full and well Thailand has a lot of fags/he-shes/lesbos and it's tolerated here.

It's bigots like you that prove the flaws of humanity.  Using stereotypes like Adam and Steve, or comparing gay marriage to bestiality, pedophilia, or using disgusting terms like fags, he-shes, and lesbos is divisive, hateful, and hostile. Adam and Steve?  Were you a witness to the beginning of time?  Your Bible is a book of manufactured stories.  Your logic, or lack thereof justifies persecution because intolerance exist in other countries.  Your principles are flawed and infinitesimal compared to developed nations that embrace humanity, equality, and freedom.  You seem to be an advocate of suppression, repression, and disenfranchisement.  I'm a gay man and your use of the word fag is offensive, destructive, racist, and bigoted.  You are a small minded individual who lacks compassion, and objectivity.  You should move to one of those 70 countries that you outlined in your bigoted rant that has a more anaclitic society that shares your lack of values.  

2 hours ago, saengd said:

I'm very happy for us to open up the discussion to related aspects and I mean that sincerely because there's so little opportunity to have such debates on Thaivisa Forum. Most people prefer to simply parrot the idea that government manipulates the currency and not look any deeper. So I'm not going to say you are off topic but I think before we can widen the debate you really should address the original points that you challenged.

 

The topic is "the reason for Baht appreciation" and I've tried to focus on that. I've accounted for the reasons why but you've said that's all Wall Street jargon and doublespeak, I think you need to be clear about what things those are and why, fair enough?

 

There are in all probability a myriad of reasons why the baht has appreciated, and the bottom line is, the baht has appreciated and continues to appreciate, but its appreciation has been painful for many people.  I've read story after story about how those who pull the levers intend to "correct" the problem who quickly dive into forecast, curves, yields, exchanges, valuations, swaps, shorts, and liquidity, which are not specific to any one story, but examples of terms that can be used which in most cases explain nothing to no one because the system is designed to be complicated. In this story it was expressed as, 

thin market conditions, which caused an imbalance of FX flows and a spike in volatility. The USD depreciation against regional currencies also contributed to the move. The average reference rate (THBREF) for the day was Bt30.121 to the US$.

People aren't searching for jargon, their asking for results.  However such terminology is its own lexicon and might express plausible explanations for the rising baht, but it doesn't mean most people are going to understand it.  There are many terminologies that I understand after two years of economics and the research I conducted on my own before I invested my own money; but, all this jargonistic language doesn't address the effect that currency conditions have on the rest of the economy.  People should not make promises they can't keep. When you promise to mitigate an issue and fail to produce the intended result and then continue to promise to mitigate the issue and continue to produce no results, it then begins to sound like excuses or a tactic to appease and delay.  I don't track the specific stories, there's too many, but I do store pertinent information about performance, and in my opinion there is no equilibrium between a strong [performing] baht and a weak [performing] economy.  One is the enemy of the other.  In the USA I gained almost 17% on my investments through multiple instruments, but I'm well aware that the FED is injecting billions into the market.  Good for me, but bad for the economy.  I think people see all of this as a rigged system, and they would be right.  Therefore the erosion of trust is the result of that pain I mentioned earlier, it is further a result of broken promises to try and fix the system and government always has, is, and always will be the brunt of people's frustration because they are the ones who write laws and govern, and I believe most people think, believe, or know that governments all over the world have a very cozy relationship with banks and corporations, so I first blame the market and the people who manipulate it and those who are complicit in aiding and abetting it.  Is it a crime?  It's a subjective term that can only be defined through definitions of the law.  My intent was to express how the baht effects the marketplace because I was once again reading one more story attempting to convey the "unexpected" rise of the baht and how the problem will be resolved after the new year because it does not represent Thailand's economic fundamentals, but it does not express what those fundamentals are, so it just sounded like more jargon, and more excuses that do nothing for the marketplace as evidenced by its current numbers that I laid out in my first post.  And certainly for me, since I am only a spokesperson for one, excuses really don't pay my bills. 

I think 2020 may experience a massive global correction that will inject more pain for consumers, but that's just my opinion based upon what I read, what I learn and what I believe to be true. Now that part is off topic!          

1 hour ago, saengd said:

You use the word "excuses" several times to describe some of the things that have been said about the strength of THB yet you haven't really offered up an alternate "excuse", instead you've focused on declining manufacturing and the effect an overly strong baht has on your spending habits, none of which has much to do with the sudden increase of THB......the question is, which debate are you trying to have?

 

If your debate is about WHY THB is strong there's not much more to be said that hasn't been said many times already, trade surplus, Dollar weakness, floating peg...end of.

 

But if your chosen debate is about productivity losses then we have to remind that Thailand is more of an assembler than a manufacturer, it is a link in the chain rather than the entire chain. So because the China/US trade war erupted and badly hit the automotive industry, and because the move is now away from assembling multi-component gasoline based cars to the much less complex and less labor intensive electrically driven cars, yes, manufacturing is suffering and factory utilization and productivity are down......and?

 

As for your spending habits: core CPI is very nearly flat, that is part of the problem, if you're spending is getting hurt as a result of the Thai economy perhaps you are buying the wrong things!

 

So, given the title of this thread is the sudden appreciation of the Baht, which debate do you want to have, the thread subject, manufacturing decline or the effects of an overly strong Baht?

One certainly has everything to do with the other, we are talking about currency, or at least I was and the offset to a strong[er] baht and the impact it has on this economy.  Currency is not an island.  What you're saying is that manufacturing is assembly and just a link in the chain; that's a pretty big link since manufacturing makes up two-thirds of Thailand's GDP; and, by the way, all products are assembled in one manner or the other, that is a component of manufacturing, so exchanging one word for another doesn't change its definition or the process.  So whether it makes gasoline powered cars, electric cars, or any other type of car, you state yourself productivity is down, "and?"  And, why is productivity down?  Because the strength of the baht has had an adverse effect on export earnings because of an export contraction which has had an effect on private investment.  Thai business leaders have on several occasions attempted to compel the government to set policies to control the strength of the baht:

Thai business groups are becoming increasingly more strident in their calls to have the government take action in relation to the strong value of the baht against the dollar and regional currencies which is reported to be still having a devastating effect on Thai exports as the economy moves well into the second half of the year.  Thai Examiner, September 6, 2019

I'm merely pointing to the indicators of the marketplace, and last time I checked currency was and is the driver of that marketplace.  I didn't have a meeting with any group in Thailand so I can't speak for others, I therefore used myself as an example of how I have had to control my own cost due to a strong baht that effects my own imported currency and how that effects my buying decisions, it doesn't mean I am buying the wrong things as you suggest, it means I'm not buying as many things due to a contraction of my own surplus income.  But to set you straight, I mostly buy the right things.

The thread is about the sudden appreciation of the baht, that part you got right.  I was discussing the excuses used to justify that appreciation with useless jargon, [you yourself seem to have a penchant for jargonistic theories and Wall Street doublespeak], and the reality of how a strong baht effects the overall economy.  I used the word excuses six times, so thank you for focusing on exactly what I intended to convey in my post, in that excuses in this case do not address the reality or the impact the strong baht has on the three interconnected markets: The Financial Market, Product Market, and Labor Market.  The article just provides another; yes, excuse - there, I said it.

I realize its probably more convenient for you to focus on one side of the equation to make your point, but when I examine an issue, I try to understand all of its sides to avoid having a bias to only one side of the issue.  It was a nice try on your part to dismantle my post by trying to prove I was off topic, but again, I was very much on topic by pointing out the effects of a strong baht and how excuses [yes, I said it again] don't match up to reality.

2 minutes ago, passon said:

You can speculate, regurgitate and quote economic theories until the next financial crisis breaks down economic doors, and some can pretend the existence of Trump's perceived economic prowess who in reality exhibits a perplexity towards international trade; all he's accomplished is destabilizing international economies with a shotgun approach of bluster and bravado.  Keynesian got it wrong, Robert Lucas got it wrong, and Paul Krugman got it wrong, just to name a few.  

 

Thailand has a consumer confidence problem [19 consecutive months], it has a consumer debt problem, it has a wage disparity problem with a rising cost of living, it has an unemployment problem, it has an export problem, it has a manufacturing problem with factories that either are up for sale or out of business [1,300 according to recent reports].  I don't see anything there that resembles sound fundamentals.  So theories mean absolutely nothing when compared to reality.  Managing a war is noting like fighting one.  Success is measured in results, not theories.  A strong baht is a theory not a success story.

 

People make less, so they spend less, and they save less.  They avoid buying houses, cars, appliances and many other big ticket items that drive an economy; that's not a theory, and it's certainly not a success story. 

The bank is something more than men, I tell you.  It's the monster.  Men made it, but they can't control it.  John Steinbeck

I was just in the Chiang Mai Immigration office this last Wednesday with a Thai friend to clarify this topic and a few others.  I have my SSI letter from the USA, but my benefits do not equal the minimum requirement of 65,000 baht per month, so the letter will not be considered during my next renewal process.  I was told by the IO it either had to be 65,000 baht per month over 12 consecutive months deposited into a Thai bank account, or 800,000 baht seasoned into a Thai bank account two months before my extension request and three months after its approval.  Therefore it is now my understanding that immigration will no longer accept a combination of funds, it's one or the other.

Actually, when you think about it, it's one of those rare moments when Trump is actually telling the truth.  Look at his tweet:

So interesting to see “Progressive” Democrat Congresswomen, who originally came from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe, the worst, most corrupt and inept anywhere in the world (if they even have a functioning government at all), now loudly....

Three of the "Progressive" Democratic Congresswomen were born in the United States, so Trump is making an admission that he, as president is presiding over a government that is "a complete and total catastrophe, the worst, most corrupt and inept anywhere in the world..." 

And for all those Trump apologist, he said "whose governments are"  which describes the present tense.  

I have to agree with him on this one and would add that he as #45 is the worst and most corrupt president in the history of the United States, and the biggest liar. 

It's amazing, Trump actually told the truth at least one time.  Wow!

20 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Sadly it is likely that the "stimulus" will consist of easy credit for the low income earners to purchase vehicles from the flagging auto industry to be driven on an increase in roading infrastructure built rapidly but poorly by preferential contracts. The importance of economic growth is mainly for the haves reliant on the have nots being relieved of total  income via consumerism in one form or other.

Sadly, consumer debt is already at 80% of GDP, so there are currently too many cracks in the dam to keep filling it up with water...

Mrmillersr - I'm not certain of the in's and outs of how the TM-30 regulation is being enforced.  It appears to be discretionary, which I base on my own experience and the comments I have read online.  I assume you are in Chiang Mai since this is the Chiang Mai forum, but since you have not left the country for some time it seems less likely you have a compliance issue regarding the TM-30 regulation.  However, I just put out this information as a heads up to my fellow expats to help prevent someone else from being caught off guard.  I would say, "be prepared."  I wasn't sure if any of this would apply to me but I decided to complete the documents, just in case.  The worst that could happen is that you don't prepare the documents and if it is required in your situation, you just go back, complete them, come back another day, submit them, and then pay the fine.  The maximum fine is 1,600.00 baht.  As Ricardo said, all of this may one day go away, but in the interim, it's like everything else related to immigration; it's a lot of paperwork and expense in both time and money; but, once your paperwork is filed, and as long as you comply with your timelines, you will remain on a glide path for the duration of your time here in Thailand.  

Yes, I'm aware now that this regulation has been on the books for a long time, which makes it enforceable.  But, I've been out of the country for eight months and when I applied for my O-Visa in January, 2017, there was no such requirement to comply with the TM-30 regulation; so yeah, it seems this is just a way to get more money from foreigners; but, since I experienced so much confusion by other foreigners who were also unaware of this regulation, I thought it might be a good idea to share this with others, just in case they, like me, had no idea that this law existed and was being enforced.  I'm not sure what news you're referring to, but hopefully, if you found out about it 18 months ago you were able to avoid being penalized.   

It is my understanding that Chiang Mai immigration may be the only office enforcing the TM-30 [so-called] requirement and that Bangkok may not be enforcing it. However, if it is being enforced throughout Thailand the notification requirement is for each housemaster [their description, not mine], hotel or anyone providing shelter to an alien over a 24 hour period to complete the TM-30 form, which is known as Notification From For House-Master, Owner Or The Possessor Of The Residence Where Alien Has Stayed. If the House-Master is unable to accompany the alien to the immigration office with the completed form then the house-master must complete a Power of Attorney Form Notification Form For Where Alien Has Stay which must also be signed by the house-master and the alien. You must also provide a copy of the house-masters House book [same as a Deed of Trust] to prove ownership which must be signed by the house-master. A copy of the housemaster's identification card [front and back] which must also be signed by the house-master, a copy of your lease agreement [signed], a copy of your passport face page, arrival card and entry stamp. This must be submitted within 24 hours of your arrival. If you have been here longer than 24 hours and more than three days, you will be fined 1,600 baht. Once you receive your Receipt of Notification you must staple it into one of your passport pages. Every time you re-enter the country you must report to immigration or a local police office to report your arrival and verify that you still reside at the reported address. I would recommend getting your compliance stamped into your passport or getting some type of receipt. It's unlikely that any police station will have any such stamps or documents for this purpose.

I have had an O-Visa since 2011 and I have never been required to comply with the TM-30 regulation. I completed an address notification in Chiang Mai in 2016, but I was never required to report to immigration upon re-entering the country, and I have been in and out of the country many times since 2016.

I was never notified by immigration when I submitted my TM-6 card at the airport this last November that I needed to report my address to the immigration department, but I thought that's what the TM-6 [arrival/departure] card was for, which was to report your address.

When I went to the department that accepts the TM-30 application, which was chaotic, most foreigners, like me were unaware of the enforcement of this policy, and many, like me, have never been required to comply with the TM-30 regulation. Most had no idea what forms to complete. It was fortunate that one of my neighbors told me about this because her husband had just had the experience of being caught off guard so I prepared all the documents I needed to comply with the regulation. However, everyone there, like me complained that we knew nothing about this regulation and have never been required to comply with it so we all asked why we were being penalized for something we knew nothing about. That of course fell on deaf ears and so I and everyone else had to pay the 1,600.00 baht fine.  Irregardless, make sure you get your Notification Receipt before you apply for your visa.  I assume it applies to all immigration request, but I have no way of knowing for sure.  Maybe someone else can shed some light on that subject. 

If you attempt to leave the country and you do not have a receipt in your passport, you may have to pay a fine; or if you're about to renew your visa or work permit, you will likely have to pay a fine.

Am I missing something here? Plastic surgery is Bt100,000.00, which takes three to four days, but a two day skin treatment cost Bt500,000.00. I'll bet the planes with all the tourist will be backed up at the airport for the skin treatment deal!

I look at the rising baht the same way I look at rising gas prices; they are arbitrarily raised based upon some [artificial] set of facts that always

have something to do with supply and demand, and the preservation of both; but, it rarely, if ever, realigns itself at the same speed, or with that same sense of artificial urgency upon which it was raised. The U.S. Dollar has recently strengthened against the Euro and the Yen. It is expected that the BOJ [bank of Japan] is about to implement more "dovish" policies and that it may also implement "unlimited" quantitative easing in 2014, which will allow the dollar to continue building strength against the Yen. However, none of that is reflected in the exchange rate between the USD and the THB.

I find this part of the article interesting: He [Korn] also said that Thailand and Japan have different economic situations -for example the Japanese have massive savings - so different measures should be taken for the two countries...It is untrue that the Thai gross domestic product depends mostly on exports. In fact, about 52 per cent of the GDP comes from domestic consumption...

It is true that Thailand has become less dependent on exports and more dependent on domestic consumption; however the comments by Korn imply to me that consumers are spending the bulk of their discretionary income, or living on massive amounts of credit, or both. I saw firsthand the effects of a country [uSA] that built its economy on a House of Cards, and I knew, as many people knew that the house would fall, and it did. Building the Thai economy on more borrowed money, such as the 68 billion baht infrastructure bill, or building it on the false premise that rebates for cars and houses will guarantee financial longevity and prosperity are all the machinations of a government and society living on credit.

The Exchange Traded Fund [ETF] recently declined by 6% and some economist believe the 68 billion dollar infrastructure project could negatively affect the Thai economy. However, let the baht wizards have their fun by putting more of their eggs into the domestic consumption basket while reducing exports with a stronger baht, minimum wage schemes, and rice pledging schemes that will create more domestic dependency in order to grow the economy, because without growth there is no [real] confidence.

In my opinion the Thai economy is at a vulnerable point, a pivoting point if you wll, because if you believe something simply because you want to believe it, but not because it makes sense, then it's a lot like playing the lottery with long odds, a lot of wishing, but rarely with the desired result.

There is little they should do to manipulate the baht against this flood of money from the USA EU and Japan.

If they cut interest rates to cheapen the baht this will just make the credit situation worse.

I think you missed my point, the baht has already been artificially manipulated and that a continuation of that policy in combination with massive amounts of borrowing [infrastructure] and government schemes [cars, houses wages, and rice], will only, in my opinion, increase the country's dependency on domestic consumption; therefore if domestic consumption is based upon a lack of discretionary income [savings] and an increase in massive amounts of credit [debt]; then, if the debt can not be paid down, you will have less credit and less consumption. Even Korn admits the country does not have massive savings reserves. However, the USA, as an example, is already chasing bad money in Europe, so that "flood of money" will only serve to cheapen the baht as it continues to inflate. What goes up, must come down...

During the trip, Thaksin discussed the flooding situation with the MPs, asserting that the the country must be fully restored within three months.

Odd ..... his time-frame is usually six.

He's gotten older and time is short!

I just got back from Chatuchak. The MRT (Chatuchak) has been closed. BTS is open but some wading required to get to/from it. The road surrounding the market is flooded to 0.5 m but the market is dry thanks to contrete flood walls across the entrance. I didn't enter but there were no open stalls visible from the park.<br><br>Walked/waded up to Lat Phrao: Central Mall is closed, Tesco Lotus is open.<br><br>

I GIVE UP TRYING TO POST PHOTOS TO THIS FORUM!

See: http://tyfon.info/TV/latphrao.htm

I took the BTS out to Mo Chit and saw everything you are describing, with exception to Central Lat Phrao and Tesco Lotus (I did not venture from the Mo Chit area). JJ market, as you said looked more closed than opened. Also, the flood waters were slowly migrating into Saphan Khwai, but only on one side, which would be, I believe the east side. This was at about 2:00 P.M. (Sunday) and I'm sure it will be worse by tomorrow.

PM is addressing the nation and not one channel has an English marque, subtitle or anything that would help foreigners to understand WTBlank she is talking about...I must be a ghost...Boo!

Two traveling cities pull within speaking distance of your country to offer an avalanche of help: supplies, manpower, aircraft, medical personnel and medical pharmaceuticals, food, emergency equipment and you decide not to speak to them. I guess if they were tied to the train tracks with an advancing train in their path and someone from another country offered to cut the rope, they'd turn it down just to save face. I simply do not have the words to describe my disbelief. Instead of one disaster, the government just keeps creating more, and more, and...Wow!