crobe

Prayuth is following a standard playbook here, but he is doing it in a quite civilised way.

All of Thaksins family members and allies are being brought in to be given the same lecture - if you fund any trouble we will come after you hard, we will seize all your assets and you will be in front of a military court and you may be locked up for a long time - try to oppose us and you may not live to regret it.

What the military has to do is cut off the source of funds that could possibly stage a rebellion, and they are doing this systematically.

I expect SC asset will be seized next week, along with various other companies who have been funded out of previous administrations, and all money transfers in and out will be under more scrutiny.

Chase the money

The idea of a government in exile is going nowhere due to one fact - money.

When in power in Thailand they had access to the national coffers, patronage in appointments, some private businesses such as SC Asset bringing in money

As soon as they set up a government in exile then the junta will confiscate all of their assets in Thailand, where the majority still is and although Thaksin has wealth himself, this will soon start drying up as he tries to fund a full government/insurrection/secession and although it can cause some problems temporarily, it cannot outlast the assets and firepower that the national junta could amass.

He will think twice about this plan when it starts eating into his own wealth

"Where is the government now?"

More like, why do we need a government anyway?

I was in a normal working meeting today with my Permanent Secretary, high level officials from other ministries etc. Work keeps going on, Still have to make progress, no change there.

Only thing the government is needed for at the moment is to pass a budget bill for the next fiscal year, and to sign pending government-to-government agreements.

Thailand could be better off without a government for a couple of years

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Maybe I am looking at this a bit simple but why would farmers contiue to struggle to raise crops that are not suited to their land. If a farmer keeps planting rice when he doesnt have the correct water flow/climate it is a bit stupid to continue to do it. Following on family tradition is not the best way to do things if its wrong, until they are pointed in the right direction so that they actually grow something suitable for their land it is just a bit silly really.

Some things to think about:

• Who will do the zoneing? Government - so what is there track record with corruption and nepotism
• Interference / intervention in the markets - what is the track record - rice stock pile
• Is there easy entry into the marketing on the new crop? for example if a farmer changes to sugar cane he needs a quota to be able to sell to the mill - small farmers would have to sell to someone with a quota who would then sell to the mill. Therefor it would be like the small farmers who could not pledgee there rice (when they were still getting paid)
• Disease - look what happened with cassava and shrimps when hit by disease - if districts were virtual mono culture disease would be more of a problem - in such cases there would be no work in the district to try and cover financially until the disease problem was addressed.
• Spread of work across the year is possible with mixed cultivation - alternatives is hired labour which is often not available when needed.
• Additional investment in machinery for new crops. Alternative is to hire - cost, cash flow and availability.
• Loss of independence and dignity - many small farmer are older people and the farming is basically self sufficiency with the sale of surplus - many would need to get out of farming.

The massive increase in rice plantings is due to the government interfering in the market - yet again the government want the smallest and poorest to pay for their policies. Mark this down as another betrayal of small farmers by the PTP government.

To answer a few of your questions.

The zoning program has been mooted for a few years with very little progress, partly due to complexity and partly due to administrative difficulties.

The zoning program is intended to create a database of crops in Thailand down to field level and concentrates on the 13 most widely grown crops (Rice, Rubber, Cassava etc. etc.)

There are two uses for this database - for the Ministry of Agriculture and other agencies to be able to forecast and plan the harvests, subsidies, water usage etc. and to try to provide direction to the farmers and co-operatives to change to higher value crops where applicable.

The second use of the database is for the finance ministry to initiate the land registry and taxing scheme - so that all land in the country can be quantified and taxed accordingly.

As no progress was being made the government tasked various agencies to work together - one of these was the space agency GISTDA which provides space based data and information - and who are now acting as a facilitator to get expertise and systems in from abroad where similar schemes have been implemented (such as the European Union etc).

Putting together such a system requires a lot of effort - it is not just the space based data but the applications for the people on the ground, working with the co-operatives and farmers, regional and local governments etc. plus other data such as meteorological, commodity pricing, water management and even climatological effects for the overall system.

It also requires quiet a lot of cost, particularly in a national implementation and training and support and so it is proposed to have some pilot programmes in selected provinces.

A delay has occurred due to the Thailand government wanting to do this "on the cheap" by requiring that it is funded from Overseas Development Aid - i.e. anyone wanting to come and implement the scheme has to also bring funding from their national aid program. This has limited the interested parties as countries like France and Japan have ODA programs that have been used in the past in Thailand, but not all countries have ODA programs or see Thailand as a developing country that needs such aid.

As any ODA program needs a government-to-government contract it is unlikely that any of the pilot programmes will start until there is a functioning government in Thailand to sign the agreement.

Any talk of boycotts or small articles in the New Yorker would have little or no effect - a boycott by a few is just a personal choice and does not even regster on the multinational profits.

there is one way to make the point though

Go to the Singapore Grand Prix, buy some tickets for the main stand and during the race unfurl a large banner saying "Red Bull Murderer, Justice for yarayuth", and that would have some effect shaming both Singapore and Thailand as it would get a global audience and many people talking about it.

that's not what 20mln at the polling stations wanted, and many many millions more, who were prevented from the voting. Just what a few hundred/a few thousand at Lumpini park would like to force on the voters.

If you read the OP you will see that the poll was taken around the country

You would be wise not to make asertions that just prove you are an idiot

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I was in Piyanas in Fortune Town BKK yesterday as I wanted to get a turntable as a present.

Turned out to be an ordeal as the assistants did not speak much English and had even less interest in making a sale.

I was in the market for the Rega and got him down to about 17k, but the stumbling block was that I wanted to take it immediately, and the assistant said that it was only for demo, they had no others in stock, so he would not sell me the one on display.

He said there may be one in stock in Don Mueang, but travelling to there was no good to me as it was too late and the next day I have to work before going back to Pattaya in the evening.

I didn't know they had a shop in Pattaya and the assistant did not tell me.

In the end I walked out and got something cheaper, but not as stylish, from Mahujack in Siam Paragon.

So Piyanas lost a sale - i hope the one in Pattaya has a better attitude otherwise they will not stay long.

A turning point could easily come on Friday as it looks increasingly unlikely that funding will be found to pay the farmers more than a token amount, and reports from the BAAC that there will not be any funding for the next crop could cause the farmers to regroup for demonstrations

The reaction of the red-shirt/UDD camp to this will be interesting - will they try to stop the farmers with more direct means (rather than the spikes in the road by some parties unknown last time)

A direct confrontation between farmers and red-shirts will open up deep divisions, but it may be difficult to out the genie back in the bottle after the rabble-rousing speech at the weekend.

Here's the major shareholder lists for 2013 for InTouch/Shin Corp and AIS.

Clearly Aspen Holdings (Singtel) is the largest shareholder of InTouch/Shin Corp., which is the largest shareholder of AIS.

But I have no idea who's part of the second largest ownership entity in InTouch/Shin Corp. -- Thai NDVR Co. Ltd.

InTouch/Shin Corp.

PS0212.jpg

AIS

PS0213.jpg

http://www.intouchcompany.com/ir_shareholderstructure_en.asp

I posted part of this in another thread.

The problem is that the NVDR is set up by the Thai Stock Exchange precisely to shield the identity of investors, so unless this is made transparent it is not sure that the Shins have not re-invested via this route

The more pressing question however, is the shareholding of Aspen which is a holding company set up by TeMasek when they bought shin corp, but is not sure that they own 100% as the shareholding is not disclosed.

Do the Shins hold shares in this entity?

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Suthep has held out this long, but the time for talks is actually next week - and he should now accept the invitation under the chairmanship of an independent third party

He should accept because next week he will have achieved the aim of stopping the election forming a quorum and parliament meeting in session as it is obliged to do after 30 days.

The talks can then take place on what administration and interim government shall be used to replace the current caretaker administration after April 1st., when they will lose their authority under the constitution and Yingluck will no longer be the Prime Minister - she does not need to resign, this is automatic.

Once an interim administration is agreed the Suthep can stick to his word and retire from politics.

The interim administration should also not include the Shin clan or near relatives, so that an open reform process and new elections can be held - probably not before the end of the year.

If the interim administration is made up of individuals who are without political allegiance or corrupt practices, then this may show Thailand what a real government can and should do.

At least I am hoping for the best

Endgame by continuing to attack a company ( it's staff , shareholders and customers) that has nothing whatever to do with Shin...trying to manipulate profit for someone. Endgame.? No...scandalous and disgraceful certainly

It is not possible to say for certain that the Shinawatras do not still have shares in AIS, Thaicom etc.

Last year shares were sold by Temasek to unnamed individuals hiding behind a Thai NVDR company - the shareholders of which have not been disclosed.

If the SET would disclose these shareholders, as they do with other companies, then it would be possible to know

Half of these "4 points" are due to self inflicted wounds by the PTP - dissolving parliament for instance, or by their own conflicts with the constitutional court, nothing to do with the PDRC.

As soon as they took the decision to dissolve parliament - Suthep went to plan B, and the real four points are:

1) Disrupt the elections to make sure the quorum of 95% cannot be filled

2) The constitution mandates that the parliament has to sit in quorum within 30 days - i.e. by 1st March

3) The parliament must then elect a Prime Minister within 30 days - i.e. by 1st April, otherwise it loses its caretaker status

4) On April 2nd the Constitutional Court finds that the constitution has not been followed and so the caretaker government is annulled and a royally appointed PM and administration has to serve per interim until new elections are held or a quorum has been reached.

As of 1st March Suthep will agitate that the caretaker government no longer ha legal authority, but the real turning point is 1st April if sufficient elections have not been held.

Any royally appointed interim administration may press for a reform plan, and a fundamental financial review before a new round of national elections.

That is what the PTP are now running scared of

After the amnesty bill, and the rice pledging I was wondering what would be the third strike.

Seems that the government intend it to be sovereign bonds

It is the worst idea they have had this week, and that is saying something. The spectre of 1997 is still not dead.

I have a lot more understanding of the agricultural sector than you imagine, and it is not just the rice crop that is now being affected, other government policies are causing problems too.

But please go ahead, buy some binds for you "karma" - I would prefer to rely more on sound financial analysis, rather than bleeding heart ideology.

I hope you can feed your kids on "karma" or if you have so much money that you can waste some, why not put it to some better direct use - there are a lot of things you can contribute to directly through charities and NGOs that would have a lot more benefit than buying junk bonds that carry no guarantee that the proceeds go to the deserving.

Do something positive for Thailand and the community for a change

I once witnessed a guy who worked for a well known charity retire, and drive away with a 'company' BMW as a thank you

I witnessed a person in a charity that was paid 30% more for the same position I held, with 50% less responsibiity, and I was paid way above the going rate by an IT company

I worked for an ECO charity for a short while until I could no longer stand the hypocrisy

So please don't advise me where my money should go thanks

Feed my kids? guess what!! farmers grow their own rice!! They grow their own mangoes and papaya, they grow their own bananas, they take fish from the farm, they take farm crab for salad, rural economy, how the hell do you think the rural communities have survived on the crap returns they have been handed down over the years!!

Get a grip man!

If you are thinking of investing in government bonds on the basis of "ideology" then you do need advice on your finances

the old saying is true, a fool and his money are soon parted - ideological fools are the worst

Oh dear such a predictable attempt to insult as a last resort, never the less thanks for your offer of financial advice

A donation to any cause does not register on my financial situation, I treat all such 'donations' as a write off, you see I don't have expectations of any return I think your advice may be better directed at those who do, or those who wish to donate 90p to administration and 10p to the cause been there seen that!

See post #100

There are a lot of other ways to help farmers and the agricultural community rather than disastrous rice-pledging schemes and dubious bonds

try reading up on the issue

I have a lot more understanding of the agricultural sector than you imagine, and it is not just the rice crop that is now being affected, other government policies are causing problems too.

But please go ahead, buy some binds for you "karma" - I would prefer to rely more on sound financial analysis, rather than bleeding heart ideology.

I hope you can feed your kids on "karma" or if you have so much money that you can waste some, why not put it to some better direct use - there are a lot of things you can contribute to directly through charities and NGOs that would have a lot more benefit than buying junk bonds that carry no guarantee that the proceeds go to the deserving.

Do something positive for Thailand and the community for a change

I once witnessed a guy who worked for a well known charity retire, and drive away with a 'company' BMW as a thank you

I witnessed a person in a charity that was paid 30% more for the same position I held, with 50% less responsibiity, and I was paid way above the going rate by an IT company

I worked for an ECO charity for a short while until I could no longer stand the hypocrisy

So please don't advise me where my money should go thanks

Feed my kids? guess what!! farmers grow their own rice!! They grow their own mangoes and papaya, they grow their own bananas, they take fish from the farm, they take farm crab for salad, rural economy, how the hell do you think the rural communities have survived on the crap returns they have been handed down over the years!!

Get a grip man!

If you are thinking of investing in government bonds on the basis of "ideology" then you do need advice on your finances

the old saying is true, a fool and his money are soon parted - ideological fools are the worst

I have a lot more understanding of the agricultural sector than you imagine, and it is not just the rice crop that is now being affected, other government policies are causing problems too.

But please go ahead, buy some binds for you "karma" - I would prefer to rely more on sound financial analysis, rather than bleeding heart ideology.

I hope you can feed your kids on "karma" or if you have so much money that you can waste some, why not put it to some better direct use - there are a lot of things you can contribute to directly through charities and NGOs that would have a lot more benefit than buying junk bonds that carry no guarantee that the proceeds go to the deserving.

Do something positive for Thailand and the community for a change

Not trying to stir your pot but Please explain your position in plain English please. Just one simple sentence would be nice and I will thank you..

Quite simple.

The Thai government has been embarked on studying an agricultural zoning program, looking at the crops down to field level and trying to provide solutions to increase yields, switch crop types where it is advantageous, lower pesticide and nitrates use to increase quality, manage the irrigation water supplies, warning systems against crop pests etc.

This is a complex scheme for which overseas aid money (funds from other countries) and foreign expertise can help and I have been part of trying to make this happen.

To get such funding needs thorough and comprehensive financial analysis on the cost and benefits, societal, commercial and in terms of the world markets.

Contrast that to the debacle of the rice-pledging scheme, and dubious financial engineering to support it, and you will realise how hard a task it is now to get foreign donors to support this administration.

I have a lot more understanding of the agricultural sector than you imagine, and it is not just the rice crop that is now being affected, other government policies are causing problems too.

But please go ahead, buy some binds for you "karma" - I would prefer to rely more on sound financial analysis, rather than bleeding heart ideology.

I hope you can feed your kids on "karma" or if you have so much money that you can waste some, why not put it to some better direct use - there are a lot of things you can contribute to directly through charities and NGOs that would have a lot more benefit than buying junk bonds that carry no guarantee that the proceeds go to the deserving.

Do something positive for Thailand and the community for a change

The Government tried to do this in November - they issued Baht 130 Billion in Bonds but only just over 50% was subscribed - I can't see the new issue being any better received.

Patrick

And where did that money go?

As the only people that would contribute are from the staunchly red areas of the North and North East they could simplify the system by getting the UDD to go round to each house in the area, take the money and give to the farmers.

Or maybe I should not give them any ideas

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Yellow shirts dont like this story because they want to block the payments for as long as possible.

The farmers know this and know that the real enemy is the 2 faces yellow shirts .... nothing has changed.

They will get their money and next election they will vote a pro thaksin gov back in to power... again and again and again

Not only are they upset that the farmers will be paid, they saw their grand dream fall apart in front of their eyes the real farmers of the central provinces realized they were playing into the hands of the anti government folks wanted no part of it and went home.

The government clearly stated they would meet with the farmers that were interested in getting paid for their rice, as they had met with the group around government house, that walked out of the meeting, bad move, If you need to pay farmers pay those that abide by the law and do not have a political agenda.

As it is clear all farmers will not be paid immediately, let those that have a political agenda be the last to be paid!

Cheers

It is premature to say that the farmers will be paid next week as there have been a series of promises broken in the past 2 months.

So far they have only transferred about 235m to the BAAC for next week so there is still a long way to go as they need around 50-60bn.

Organisisng a bond auction or sale of promissory notes will take more than a week, so where, in your expert opinion, will the oustanding 50bn come from in the time

Perhaps every PTP supporter should immediately contribute, are you willing to give this current government 50k and trust you will get it back - I dont think so.

I think you may have a lot of egg on your face this time next week

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