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crobe

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Posts posted by crobe

  1. So a difference of approx -60 Billion Baht, or -2 Billion US$. That's a lot of cash.

    GSBs liquidity (reserves that it can call in) is quoted around 200Bn baht, so this represents just under a third.

    Cause for concern but probably no action as yet, but if the outflows hit 120-150Bn then action would have to be taken to shore up the banks capital.

    It is not certain that the government in caretaker mode has the authority to a bailout, but the BoT probably has

    Nevertheless it might be one more headache for any new administration to solve.

  2. By the very evident strength in the Baht today, it looks like a lot of money is coming into Thailand ( reversing the trend last month and December and probably reflecting higher interest rates...but no lack of confidence in the sector or the country).

    Suthep and his acolytes, both well-meaning and otherwise, have done much damage to the economy. It will recover once he is in jail

    Good timing with this comment then...

    The baht dripped 0.5%, the most in six weeks this morning,

    It's almost as if it did this on purpose to you

    But before you go on about only one day, the most pertinent figure is that the baht has dropped 4% since the end of October when the protests started (according to central bank figures)

    Pathetic troll

    • Like 1
  3. Chadchart is garnering a lot of support from the Thais. My wife, like many others, is now following him on facebook, twitter etc.

    The tramsport ministry trasitionally has been seen as the most corrupt and exemplifying the worst of Thai politics, so when a relative outsider came in, and actually started going in buses and trains to find out what was happening, the Thais were impressed.

    This "common touch" is sorely missing in most of the politicians who are seen as elitist and self aggrandising.

    If, and it is a big if, Chadchart has managed to remain uncorrupted in his short time as minister, then he could prove to be the saviour of the PT party and the way out of the current impasse.

    If Yingluck and her coterie were to step down in favour of an interim administration run by Chadchart, with a remit to enact meaningful reforms and then to hold a new election, they could take all of the steam out of the protests.

    My fear is that he has already been ensnared in the shin machine and could not provide an indeoendence that is needed at the present time

    Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

  4. While I support the overall concept of infrastructure spending to improve the country, this scheme, like all others from the PTP, has fallen down on the implementation - this exposes the two weaknesses of the PTO led administration - incompetence and arrogance.

    It has been incompetent in the process - the feasibility studies may have been conducted by reputable international companies, but their recommendations have not been followed - the decision on the 2.2Tn loan amount is not justified according to the recommendations. This does not say that the amoiunt should be spent on upgrading the current rolling stock and lines (in fact a full replacement program with conventional rolling stock is almost as expensive as going for the high speed rail as the majority of the costs involved are on the lines, crossings, safety etc.)

    The arrogance comes in because they have ploughed ahead with the high-speed for 4 (5?) lines with the Chiang Mai line a priority to appease their party constituents - this is not acting in the national best interests and shows the blatant arrogance endemic in party policies. They assume the electrorate are too dumb to understand this.

    The east coast line to Rayong, being the shortest line intended, and taking in Suvarnhabumi airport and the major tourist destination of Pattaya would be economically feasible, although needing a 10-15 year return period. This could be financed by a combination of ODA (Overseas Development aid) and private equity funding at much lower costs than the overall 2.2Tn loan would need to attract.

    Realising this line first, without piling on government debt, would show the feasibility of high-speed rail in Thailand, and allow for the build up of the capabilties needed to realise the longer lines.

    The use of ODA and PE funding would also provide some financial oversight, together with an independent APO (Autonomous Public Organisation) so that there would be less ability to siphon off the usual 30% to a dummy contractor who is the brother in law of someone high up in the government.

    • Like 2
  5. The corruption is endemic, seen to be part of the nor,al Thai way of doing business but does not have to be so.

    I have been involved last year in setting up a contract between an APO (autonomous public organisation) and a company in Europe to develop high level software.

    I can say that during this contract this process there have been no payments made under the table, the price paid is what goes to the company with no extra "pseudo-contractors" involved, and even I did not receive anything for setting this up.

    Possibly the contract process took longer than by using shortcuts

    So it shows that if the willingness is there, and the management on the government institution is clean, then this can be done

    It is not true if you go one level up though - as soon as you hit the ministries then the 30% rule kicks in, so my advice to foreign companies dealing with Thailand is to ensure that they know the management of the government organisation and can guarantee a clean contract, but avoid the ministries and politicians.

    Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

    • Like 2
  6. The army will not be needed to secure the election as this will now be postponed.

    A constitutional court date scheduled for the 9th/10th January is likely to recommend the banning of 312 politicians who were signatories to the senate change bill and also a disbanding of the PtP due to "voting irregularities" having taken place during the last reading.

    Due to this and the EC recommendation to delay the election, the postponement will be announced on January 11th by the army chief of staff and an interim administration is to be set up including military, central bank, academic, commerce and community leaders with a remit to provide a reform agenda within 6 months.

    The reform agenda shall include party affiliation and contribution limits, stronger corruption and vote buying penalties, a strengthening of the EC, house and senate party list reforms and cinstituency boundary allocations.

    Per interim the government departments will cintinue to function under the direction of the permanent secretaries, however no new spending allocations will be allowed and the annual budget process will not be taking place.

    The current water and infrastructure spending plans will be suspended until further notice although ongoing activities for waterway repairs will be continued.

    All government departments will instead be allocated a raise in line with inflation on 1st October.

    If the reform agenda is completed then this will be submitted to national referendum on 1st November followed ratification of the constitutionsl court and by new elections after 90 days if the referendum is successful.

    • Like 1
  7. For a minute there I thought I was going to read about Thailand's new space program, which would have caused me to fall on the floor in a hysterical fit of laughter. Good to hear he is going up elsewhere.

    No doubt he will be taking a photo of The King with him, and that will be an incredibly proud moment for Thailand.

    You may be surprised to know that Thailand actually does have a space program and a space development agency.

    You can fall on the floor if you wish....

    Go Mink (Pirada), I hope you get through

  8. What this book will not tell you is how badly organised these trips are.

    Last minute changes to schedules

    No proper planning

    Groundwork for meetings and agreements not coordinated.

    An example was the last trip to Switzerland, Italy and Montenegro.

    Along for the ride were the Science Minister, Preepan, and others.

    the schedule was supposed to include a visit to France in the Friday by the Thai Science minister and the French Science Minister cancelled other meetings so that he could meet his Thai counterpart.

    It was not until late Thursday that the French minister was informed that the science minister had to go to Montenegro with Yingluck and so would not be arriving at all.

    The French were very p***ed at this.

    On the agenda was a discussion for France to sponsor a set of science scholarships - probably will not now happen.

    I hope the increased trade from Montenegro makes up for this.

  9. If you take 50kl and you spread that out in a film level thickness, it can cover a huge area. so yep, i buy the 50kl estimate to a rough order.

    but the film size may actually be less. If there any remote sensing guys out there please correct me.

    You cant actually "see" the film from satellite. But you can see what the film does to other measurable factors.

    I wont bore you with measurement details for remote sensing but i think this is just the Aug1 shot and only from Aug1. maybe water vapor affected wavelengths combined with IR. a better measurement would have been to subtract a "control" of this date with the Aug 1 shot. Then the oil slick would be the primary difference and should show up a bit more clearly.

    but still seeing the differences from day to day. ie, the july29, july31 and aug1 shots clearly shows the slick moving and only hitting the northern side of the island and getting smaller.

    Yes you can see the difference between the oil and the water in the radar image, the reflection is different, just as an optical reflection is "seen" by your eyes to be of different colours

    The x-band radar signature is not affected by normal water vapour or IR, but can be affected by heavy cloud containing lots of ice particles, but that is not the case here.

    There are also observations in the C-band from the canadian radarsat-2 satellite which are even less effected and they also show the extent of the slick

    The X-band Cosmo-skymed has been more usefuk in this case as it is a constellation of 4 satellites and so there is a greater frequency of imaging,

    • Like 2
  10. I have a registered thai limited partnership with my wife for the last 7 years, and have paid Thai company taxes

    We are also now registered for VAT

    Up until recently the company was used for my consultancy work done abroad, but I have just been given a contract by a Thai government agency

    They have told me I have to register the company with Thaiconsult - run by the ministry of finance

    I have tried to do this (the website is only in Thai), but always get an error

    Is this because our company number is a limited partnership ans we have to convert to a full limited company to do this?

    Any advice welcomed

  11. One of Germany's main goals in establishing EU bilateral free trade agreements is the reduction and elimination of tariffs and import taxes on EU vehicles, particularly luxury cars.

    It is a big issue in the EU-India FTA at the moment as the Indian car manufacturers are complaining about the tariff reductions.

    I hope the EU-ASEAN FTA would be accomplished, if only to get rig if the iniquitous Thai import taxes, that only encourage corruption, but I would guess that there will be one government shouting for an exemption on this part.

  12. There is just too much BS being talked here on this subject.

    If you work for a USA company that has no Thailand offices etc and you are paid into a US bank account then you do not need a work permit if you are just doing work on your computer.

    I know this because over the years I have checked with immigration IN PERSON and asked the exact same question, each time the immigration officers have told me

    1/ We are not interested in these circumstances and

    2/ You cannot apply for a work permit in these circumstances anyway.

    I appreciate (of course) that work permits are not issued by immigration and so i have checked answer 2 with the relevant authority and it's confirmed.

    Of course, depending on how you read the law (written in Thai of course, and don't expect an accurate translation on here) you may disagree on how the letter of the law applies, but as with everything it's the application of the law and the way it's interpreted that matters.

    Regarding the tracking down and deportation BS, show me 1 instance of someone being deported for 1st offence of working without a permit.. you cannot, the maximum penalty is a small fine for 1st offence and thats for real working without a permit like running a shop or a bar etc. In fact it's much more serious to have an inappropriate work permit or to have a work permit and not be working!

    This is probably the closest reply you will get

    If your company is in the US and does not intend to set up a Thai branch or office, then you are not officially "working" in Thailand and the authorities are not interested in you as you are not working for a Thai company or selling goods or services in Thailand.

    Without a company you cannot get a business visa, cannot get a work permit etc.

    You are therefore on a tourist visa and like every other tourist who gets calls and e-mails from his office you deal with these - the Thai authorities are not interested in checking every tourist to see if they are doing work e-mails.

    I presume there is someone at the company in the US taking care of the day-to-day aspects.

    The problem you will have is that you will always be on 30 day tourist visas and if/when the Thais want to crack down on this and only allow a certain number of these per year - or a mandatory gap of some months between visas, then you could be screwed.

    You will also be in trouble is the app you develop gets sold in Thailand as then you will be earning money in Thailand and subject to the work laws, so at that point you better get fully legal.

  13. i would have thought it would take more than a cctv footage af somebody re-enacting hitting somebody, thats not going to stand up in any court, it needs cctv footage of him actually doing the crime i would have thought. Unless theres more evidence i would think he will walk free, he could quite easily say he was re-enacting some thing from tv or what ever.

    i want to see him hung out to dry as much as anybody else but cant see how.

    As for the school i would imagine they just want it all finished, it was after all centered around a bar that speialises in a certain service and their head of English was in there if only looking for the owner of the car.

    I think it depends on the other witnesses and what they had to say, plus the medical report on the injury - also Adams version of the incident if he can remember.

    A lot of the bars around that area are local open-to-the street-bars, and not there just for the services you are alluding to, and by the accounts I have Adam was there playing pool as he does often.

    this from a website describing the bars...

    Starlight Bar

    Drinking bar. Beers start at 29 baht for a small Leo up to 75 for a large Heineken. There's a food menu including a cooked breakfast

    Crobe

  14. He is well connected with Pattaya police and immigrations so he will get bail for sure and then run. He has also 'helped' MANY people leave Thailand that needed to get out quick.......

    There is no way he will get bail, the rich business people and top police around pattaya send their children to Regents. This is big new to the students there who inform their parents. Someone running a visa shop will not have connections to trump this. This case will go through the proper channels of justice, hitting him was essentially the same as hitting one of the elites. Had this happened to some other person, I would agree with your comment.

    Also how do you know he helped other people get out of thialand quick? If this is true those same people would have told him it was ok for him to return, so why did these same people not shield him from arrest?

    You are correct.

    Adam was one of my kids teachers at the Regent's last year and he was very well liked.

    As this school depends on continuous recruiting of overseas teachers, this incident has massive effect on their ability to attract candidates.

    It has gone up the chain to the minister for Education and the ministry of Justice - so I think there will be little that the local police can do to stop the process or allow him to buy his way out

    At least you would hope so.

    Crobe

  15. There are some unanswered questions on this:

    1) The planes planned to be used on this mission are converted spy planes. The media show pictures of a very large 4-engined plane but we are told that there is not enough room on board for a Thai observer. Why?

    2) The Nasa chap in charge of the mission said that equipment had already been transported here. This was denied by our government in the wake of the outcry. Did somebody 'mis-speak' or was this just a plain old lie?

    3) Who planted the rumor that the quid pro quo for permission to use U-Tapao was a US visa for Thaksin? Was it Yingluck, or was it someone from the Democrat camp seeking to make a cheap political gain?

    4) Why do we only hear about the temporary weather mission in the media now? What happened to the permanent loss of sovereignty from the 'humanitarian' mission...this appears to have faded into the background? Is this an intentional fading so that we have a big hue and cry about the weather mission and then parliament then approves the permanent US base?

    5) Why is U-Tapao so essential to the mission....planes are moveable things...why can't they take off from some other airport, and fly to the Asian cloud? Is it that the long runway is essential to getting the spy-planes into the air?

    I'm not someone who usually makes predictions but here is one....this is a spying on China mission by the US military using NASA as a front...as such, the request will be resurrected by the US in the not too distant future, and it will become a permanent fixture on Thai soil.

    You answered the first question yourself, the plane is a "converted" spyplane - it was never built to take passengers and any extra space is now taken up by atmospheric sensing equipment

    The NASA plan was to ship the equipment by boat on the 1st June - which is where the "already shipped" rumour came from - but with the hold in approval this was not completed.

    And to the last question - because of this plane needing a very long runway and the past ties to Thailand (such as the Cobra Gold) the base at U-tapao is the most suitable in the region

    As to your other questions it is all politics, but I would also like to know who it was that made the first connection between this campaign and the visa for Thaksin- maybe it was not a politician at all, maybe it was all made up by the newspaper...

    • Like 2
  16. Seriously? They are still talking about this thing after it has already been killed and buried? Dealing with the issue now in order to save time next year may be a waste, for there has yet to be any talk about doing the project next year. Strange...

    Its a face thing now....but quite like miss yinluck's comment..."The premier said that once the joint sitting concluded the matter, it would not be necessary to bring it up again once the US space agency decides to continue the project next year"

    "Once" shouldnt that be "if"

    It should not be "once" or "if" - it is "not"

    I talked to some friends in Goddard yesterday and they said that the budget is now to be reallocated for this year.

    They will not allocate any more funding for this issue in the fiscal allocation for political reasons.

    They have heavy pressure from republican congressmen to de-fund all climate activities under NASA and re-allocate the budget to manned space - if the republicans win the white house in November this is what will happen, and no allocation will be in the 2013 NASA request.

    Crobe

    • Like 1
  17. t sounds to me like the police know that certain foreigners are selling and taking drugs in that area. So they have got together with immigration so that the people caught can be deported. That is a very sensible thing to do. if that was their aim then there is no point targeting Thais. The aim of this exercise is probably to deport undesirables.The article is brief and doesn't go into much detail, so no point speculating too much. The bottom line is don't take drugs.

    You are correct that the article is brief, but you have no evidence to suggest that foreigners were selling drugs - there was no report of anyone arrested for this, only for testing positive.

    99% of drugs come from the local Thai population, even a foreigner selling stuff to his friends gets his supply from a Thai further up the chain

    It is very obvious from the article that they were only targeting foreign (suspected) users, the Thais who must have been there selling the drugs mysteriously melted away before the raid happened perhaps - warned it was happening maybe - because if it was so much of a surprise they might have caught someone in the act of selling.

    A properly organised raid would have tried to make sure they did.

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