atsiii

French Industry Minister Eric Besson said: "Let's not beat about the bush. They have lost control of the situation."

Pity the Japanese authorities have been unable to come up with similarly pithy summaries. If they have truly lost it then they should say so and start dealing with what will follow.

Welcome to Asian honorific culture; where saving face is paramount.

So... I'm old and stupid, can someone help me understand how they are now predicting a "massive blackout" tonight in Tokyo in addition to the already planned rolling blackouts as a result of the non-producing Fukushima units? Forecast temps are not changing drastically for Tokyo. What are they expecting to happen tonight? Does it have anything to do with the fact that none of us have seen the results of the US overfly? Or the pumping that will be starting any minute?

So this is just business as usual? "oh, yea, we're running a bit late, but we will start pumping any time now." It reminds me of walking along in the jungle that is so full of life and sounds and noise, then suddenly it would go deathly silent... no pun intended.

5,400 confirmed dead; 9,600 still missing. NHK... 6:40pm Japan time.

A bit ago, NHK ran video of a military general type looking guy saying now they were planning to start water spraying with FIVE trucks... not 10 or 11...

But... predictably...in the video... he said nothing about WHEN.

I wonder, did they remember to hand out road maps???

But they've had one on site all day! Would they not have been using it while waiting? If nothing else, to work out the kinks? Are they just waiting for nightfall to withdraw? What is going on? The new power supply to the grid was supposed to be in this pm. Am I alone in thinking this is all very strange?

I don't get it... they talked about the dire need to get water on the pools today. The first water canon truck has been there for hours. I suspect they need to mix boric acid with the water, so would it not make sense to be working out the details and trying it with this one truck while waiting for the 10 or 11 others en-route? The helicopters have not been back... nothing seems to be happening, nor are there any news conferences going on. The US overflew already and turned over spy photos...

Why is nothing happening? I'm getting nervous. Is anyone still at the site?

I suppost its exagerated to think that radiation could reach thailand?....

The answer, my friend, is blowing in the winds...

sorry, Dylan.

Great information, all. But back to the topic--it's 5:30pm in Japan and they talked of the dire need to get water into the pools "today," not tomorrow. But I can't see any activity. They talked about completing a connection to the grid this afternoon... but I can't see any mention of anything completed. Can anyone see anything happening? Has the Emperor's jet left the country?

So... it's 5pm in Japan, is anyone seeing anything about the water canons pumping water or the completed power line to the facility?

Earlier today self defense and tepco talked about the criticallity of getting water on the #3 pool today--not tomorrow. But I'm not seeing anything going on???

Nice thought, but I'm seeing no sign of that, SC, in monitoring Japanese media... There are widespread reports of their evacuation centers and medical facilities lacking in even the most basic supplies...even now almost a week after the quake and tsunami... NHK today reporting authorities in part blaming fuel shortages for their problems in delivering supplies. Earlier today, the report of 14 senior citizens dying, 12 of them at one evac center and two others en route.

You may well find that the Japanese are treating this tsunami as the disaster that it is, and that they are as well-prepared as anyone anywhere, and that their planes are being implemented with stoic and inscrutable efficiency. However, this thread is specifically focusing on only one small part of the overall catastrophe.

SC

Actually, all 14 died at the same center. Two died in transit to the school center, and 12 more at the school. The principal said he has thousands of people in the school, but only 4 medical people and almost no medical supplies. I will say the dead were all patients evacuated from the local hospital and were already at risk.

Yes, amazing how the hopes of the nation and the world at large are with 50 (generally older) brave guys. With all of the technology in the world today its coming down to retirement aged guys with hoses....

anyways found a live feed to the plant... http://producermatthew.com/live2

It just struck me: considering where the plant is located, do these guys even know if their families are okay? Or whether their houses (or towns) are still standing? Amazing...

There seems to be a lot of focus on, discussion of and argument over radiation levels. For me, the radiation readings are of interest only to the extent that they may give some advanced indication that a bad situation is headed south. The ongoing battle is to avoid a catastrophic release of radioactive material into the environment. If the battle is won, then people can (and will) argue about whether heath-affecting radiation was released during the fight, whether experts overreacted or underestimated, and/or whether nuclear power can be justified or not. But if the battle is ultimately lost, IMO, all these arguments over levels and bananas and whether or not there is actually a plume--will be mute.

So... I'm pulling for the Japanese... the "Fukushima Fifty" (thanks James)... or the 180, or however many there are. I can't help wonder how many of these guys have been at it essentially nonstop for six days.

So, when the NRC chairman says 'impact the ability to take corrective measures', this is what he means. For the (Japanese Self Defense Forces) helicopter pilots now dropping water onto the reactors, this is a deadly mission—and potentially futile. Again, the pilots and the Fukushima Fifty—deserve our deepest respect.

I agree! Regardless of whether bad decisions and/or information have been made or given, the feet-on-the-ground are doing a heroic job. I can only hope and pray for their success.

From Reuters:

Health experts said panic over radiation leaks from the Daiichi plant, around 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, was diverting attention from other life-threatening risks confronting survivors of last Friday's 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami, such as cold weather and access to fresh water.

Thanks, JF. I was just looking at the weather while you were posting this. Awful conditions... even if you are an S&R grunt with state-of-the-art equipment.

After being consumed by the nuclear crisis, I just looked at the weather. With 500,000 homeless and/or in evac centers, many with no protection from the elements and little or no food/water, most of the disaster zone is below freezing today (-4C in Sendai) with snow and rain this morning and WNW winds. Jesus.

I've been wondering the same thing... it doesn't seem like they've pulled out all the stops. A reported asked rhetorically yesterday--with thousand dead and a half million homeless--why there were not convoys of trucks heading north with blankets, food, water, etc. for all the victims--as was the case after the China earthquake. If they need access to the pools from above, why haven't they blown off the remaining roofs that are causing obstruction? Etc.? It seems like a "measured" response.

I'd concur about the seeming slowness of the relief efforts... The U.S. is hardly perfect in this area, considering the mess we made of the New Orleans Katrina aftermath relief efforts... But in most other major situations, the U.S. National Guard has done a pretty good job of mobilizing quickly and getting critical relief supplies into the field.. tents, medical supplies, water, ice, food rations...

Someone earlier asked why not use a cannon to shoot the roof off the #4 reactor... I was think about that... what happens if they miss and aim low...

Perhaps a CV47 sky hook (that could be jettisoned) to remove the remaining roof?

But not to be overly cynical and pessimistic (which I am!), perhaps it's a measured response because they expect things to get much worse, and they're holding back reserves? Tepco and defense is saying they proceeded with the attempted water drops on #3's pool because "water must be gotten into the pool--today," insinuating that getting the rods submerged tomorrow would be too late? Does this mean the next 12 to 24 hours will tell?

NHK reporting the water cannon spraying, apparently a single truck, on the reactor 3 should occur in the afternoon, followed by TEPCO work on trying to run a new electrical line..

Sounds like they're expecting the full 11 water cannon trucks to arrive in the evening.

Why is everything happening so slowly?

In an emergency like this, I would expect the trucks to be transported there by heavy lifter helis

I've been wondering the same thing... it doesn't seem like they've pulled out all the stops. A reported asked rhetorically yesterday--with thousand dead and a half million homeless--why there were not convoys of trucks heading north with blankets, food, water, etc. for all the victims--as was the case after the China earthquake. If they need access to the pools from above, why haven't they blown off the remaining roofs that are causing obstruction? Etc.? It seems like a "measured" response.

There seems a bit of an inconsistency on this...

Yesterday, the Japanese were not optimistic about the helicopter water dropping on the Reactor 4 pool, saying the explosion generated opening in the roof structure was many meters away from where the pool is located...meaning they didn't have direct open air access...

Today, they're saying they spotted from the air yesterday that the Reactor 4 fuel pool still had water in it...

I'm not sure how to reconcile those two...

FLASH: Japan nuclear operator: As of Wednesday, spent-fuel pool at no.4 reactor still had water in it /via@Reuters

It's possible that the pilot could see the pool due to the slant angle of observation, yet not be able to get overhead to drop.

NHK reporting police say death toll from quake and tsunamis now exceeding 5000.

They just added that > 14,600 missing.

Am I the only one feeling some signs of optimism for the first time in days?

I don't want to sound too pessimistic, but if I am not mistaken, the pools hold approx. 3400 cubic meters each, and one ton of water is approx. one cubic meter.

Each heli brings 7.5 tons and each truck 4 tons.

Do the math, knowing that several pools make problems, and knowing that the trucks and helis are unable to deliver all their water directly into the pools. They have to aim and hope that most of it goes into the pool. 50% is probably an optimistic estimate.

And about the reactors themselves, a total meltdown is likely to breach through the containment vessels.

So far, what I learned about early NPP designs is rather unimpressive if considering the redundancy (or lack thereof) of critical systems.

In fighter airplanes, many critical circuits are not duplicated to prevent failure, they are triplicated!

And an airplane crash only kills the pilot(s) plus maybe some people on the ground, not millions lives at stake as in an NPP.

I am a bit disappointed and alarmed that there are not more emergency systems at the technicians' disposal. One would think that because of the huge damage potential incase of accident, they would design he plants with 5 or 6 different ways to cool the rods and build the pools in a way that they cannot leak and would resist explosions. But apparently no.

Only having some diesels, batteries and the normal grid power to run the pumps also seems on the light side.

I am not impressed by the system engineering.

I have questions for the specialists:

- the rods in the pools: are their atom cores still splitting or has the chain reaction been stopped and it is only "residual energy" that causes the heat, and will that energy eventually dissipate by itself, even without cooling??

Are the rods in the pools dangerous because they could resume chain reaction or just because their heat could cause fires whose smoke would spread radioactive material into the atmosphere?

- the reactors: they have all been shut down before the tsunami, and this means, as far as I learned, that the control rods have been raised into the core, stopping the fission chain reaction. So do we have here the same situation as in the pools, just with hotter rods?

If a meltdown occurs, what are the chances or temperatures in excess of 2000 degrees occuring that would destroy the containment vessel?

- About the new power line: this would hopefully restore power to pumps, but the cooling pumps would not be of great use if there is no water to cool in the reactor, right?

Do these plants even have pumps to pump seawater into the reactor core? I suppose they would have to send some people out to do some plumbing outside, very near to where the radiation leaks from?

Will the workers there "take one for the team"?

I wonder how much nuclear power managers will commit sepuku in the next weeks.

I'm not an expert either, but I am a pilot. Even the DC-10 has triple backed up hydraulics systems, yet a DC=10 departed Denver, lost an engine, and it took out all three systems. Statistically impossible... tell the pilot, who amazingly crash landed the A/C in South Dakota saving most of the passengers.

... talk about on the brink with no backups, ask yourself what would happen if a large after shock hit today, causing another tsunami that swamped the site? That's what happens in cockpits... it's rarely the first event/malfunction that proves fatal, it's the the progression or sequence of events/errors that keeps building up.

When the reactors are shut down, I don't think the fuel rods are withdrawn, rather I think control rods are inserted.

The rods in the cooling pools must be cooled and submerged in water. They cannot cool themselves and if totally exposed, will ultimately ignite, burn and decay.

#4 was in maintenance, so all of it's relatively new (and hot) fuel rods were removed from the core and placed into the #4 cooling pool. Thus, that pool contains not only spent fuel rods but also the entire core's rods.

Keep your fingers crossed...

NHK weather forecasts: winds are now SE out to sea, but will turn to the south towards Tokyo on Saturday.

Edano (sp?) on NHK TV now acknowledging they have been slow in getting information to the Americans, but are upset that the US told its citizens to move 80km away from the plant. Also denying that US Military Officers are being turned away by Japanese officials at a 80km distance from the plant (I had not heard this). Just what we need right now--trying to save face instead of lives.

Please include the links to your posts, James...

Guardian UK: UN forecast of movement of radioactive plume coming from Fukushima shows it possibly reaching CA on Friday,

it was a tweet from the Guardian - let me see if I can find it again and will add it in.

Here is one link on the plume propagation: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/science/17plume.html

NHK:

Japan calls on foreign countries to remain calm

Japan's Foreign Ministry has urged calm as some foreign governments have issued warnings against travel to Japan, or advised citizens already in the country to leave. The moves come amid the threat of seismic aftershocks and continuing leaks from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

The governments of Iraq, Bahrain and Angola have notified the Foreign Ministry that they will temporarily close their embassies in Japan. Their staff are reportedly moving out of Tokyo.

The Foreign Ministry says the Panamanian government has transferred its embassy functions to Kobe, western Japan, and Austria has evacuated its ambassador and embassy officials to Kyoto, also in western Japan.

The ministry on Wednesday asked foreign diplomats and government officials in Japan to accurately convey information provided by Japanese authorities concerning the plant.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 22:06 +0900 (JST)

http://www3.nhk.or.j...lish/16_47.html

5555... Government officials want others to accurately convey information about the plants just as provided by them; while the IAEA and USNRC want those same Japanese officials to finally start conveying accurate and timely information about the crisis!

Am I the only one feeling some signs of optimism for the first time in days?

Always lots of hope, but I don't see much to be optimistic about yet. NHK saying 11 water cannon trucks enroute or on site.

In watching the heli-dumping on NHK TV, the choppers are trying to keep moving and not hover... so it seems difficult to be on target. I can't imagine it (refilling cooling pools) will be successful in this way. It seems like now the choppers have been pulled away. Maybe the water cannons will be more effective.