beautifulthailand99

32 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

At some point in the future, there will almost certainly be a global recession. At some point there may well be a global depression, but why does the current hostility with Russia act as the catalyst for the destruction of the West's financial system?

Why did the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand start WW1? After many decades of relative stability post WW2 (but not generally in the developing world they have had it pretty miserable) that period is coming to an end. Professor Niall Ferguson (who incidentally says we should be all in with Russia!) has made powerful arguments that the greatest moment of the British Empire when it was at it's greatest was 1937 not 1837 as you would think and WW2 and the rise of independence movements from colonial lowers finished it off. He says civilisations are like an ant hill, incredibly complex, seemingly robust in design and function but can be knocked over with a simple kick. The freedoms we have in the west are also our weaknesses the mass of the populace want a continuation of the benefits that have been used to and when thy find them wanting supporting Ukraine won't be top of their agendas. That and endless war. If the prospect of Trump in power again isn't a sign of the canary in the coal mine dying, then I don't know what is.

Finally, humans seem to have a perpetual, almost unbreakable cycle of hugely destructive wars baked into the evolutionary advancement into the future.  Poking the Bear is never a good idea, as many before have found to their cost. The Russian's appetite for misery far outweighs our capacity for pain, so better a messy peace now than much worse down the line. It's just so sad that Ukraine (and Russia) has had to suffer so much and for so long, but it was all so predictable. The world is a tinderbox soaked in petrol time to stop throwing matches around.

Oh, and nukes, I forgot about that - the long shadow hanging over all of this.

27 minutes ago, heybruce said:

What has BRICS accomplished?

 

To my knowledge BRICS has been less influential than ASEAN.

I don't know is the honest first answer, but a lot of countries are queuing up to join it. It's not beyond the wits of the world's largest manufacturing country China coupled with the world's largest land mass and reserves of natural resources Russia to build something with others that is different too and an alternative to the US centric world financial system. And one that doesn't lecture members on human rights or democracy. Meyer Lansky after all, the mob's accountant was largely responsible for the mafia's rise to power in the US in the 20th century. The majority of the countries of the world are little more than mafia states when all is said and done, but it doesn't mean they can't be successful in economic terms.

The only other things that pops up in my mind is Dubai has become some major hub for all this dirty money to wash through and oil the wheels of this alternative financial universe. One that Iran and Russia are making increasing use of.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/10/washington-needs-to-do-something-about-the-uaes-dirty-money/

Turns out reading that article that the UAE has bought off Washington in various forms whilst cosying up to Putin with a state visit like no other. A lot of geopolitical posturing is just that dig deeper, and there are invisible red lines over which nation states don't wish to cross. You might have gathered from my posts, I generally don't trust authority or their weasel messaging.

As a first stab Chat GPT says this. Which is basically eff all.

Trump Media shares have soared 50% on the launch on the NASDAQ - Teflon Don wins again !

https://www.ft.com/content/99f713a5-71fa-4a28-b1ee-5b6f8998887e

On 3/15/2024 at 12:18 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

If they go ahead and do so, expect a great many countries to look for elsewhere to leave their money. If they can use someone else's money just because they don't like that someone, then they are not to be trusted with anyone's money.

China started selling US treasury bonds rabidly two years ago. They went from 2 trillion to less than 600 million now. I expect them to sell all out within 2024. Money's going home or to gold and other fungibles. There is an increasingly important BRICS Central Bank headquartered in Shanghai which is very much a work in progress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank

36 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Many of Russia's assets (in the EU) are Euro-denominated bonds issued by France and Germany. The underlying risk is that the Euro collapses. In that case, this proposed bond will suffer but that is no different to hundreds of similar bonds. I see no reason why the costs should be any more significant than for similar bonds. 

 

The significant risk for  potential buyers of this bond is that they may leave themselves open to litigation from Russia when the war ends.

 

 

If dirty money and unscrupulous investors are eliminated from European markets, it would be a positive development.

 

 

Whether the funds are a loan or a debt to Ukraine is irrelevant in this context. As I mentioned above, the risk for potential investors is litigation and they are seeking guarantees from the EU to mitigate against this eventuality. If these assurances are not sufficient, then I doubt that the sale of the bond will go ahead. If the bond is release then I very much doubt that, " ... most seasoned investors and institutions will avoid (this bond(s)) like the plague .." as the bond will only likely be released if the EU is confident of success.

 

 

Most of those assets are held by US, not EU, institutions. I very much that at the end of the war, Russia will be keen to become involved in a 'banking war' with the US.

 

 

The fact remains that Russian assets in the West are greater than those Western assets of the West in Russia. There would be only one winner in a banking war.

 

 

Perhaps but the bottom line is Ukraine would have to agree to any proposed negotiated settlement.

European electorates have no idea what their leaders are subscribing too in making Russia an increasing adversary or the financial fallouts that will chip away at their baked in entitlements in terms of social welfare, pensions and healthcare. We are heading for a great reckoning, probably followed by a Great Depression and war and currency debauchment. Popular unrest has only just begun, and it's going to get pretty ugly. An alternative financial universe is unfolding before our eyes, and the days when the dollar or the Euro for that matter could dictate the terms are on the way out. Trump Media has just soared 50% on the NASDAQ for instance WTAF  - my belief is what has been outlined will never happen. Too many have to agree, and there are too many severe downside risks to get agreement, and Trump is coming. No one can triangulate that madness.

Not surprisingly, the young now for the most part don't want to fight in a failing war, and who can blame them. An estimated 700k draft age men have fled the country indeed I met one and recounted his tale here a few weeks ago.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

Prolonged time on the frontlines is also drawing bitter complaints from battle-weary Ukrainian combatants demanding to be demobilized or rotated out with lengthy recuperation time. Their relatives want the same thing: On Sunday, dozens of families of frontline soldiers crowded into Kyiv’s Maidan Square to demand their husbands, fathers and boyfriends be relieved from combat, arguing they’ve done their bit and now must be demobilized or given considerable rest and relaxation.  

But that can’t happen until more Ukrainians sign up and are trained.

1 minute ago, Wobblybob said:

I don't agree that Israels attack on Gaza has been a total failure, it has been estimated that 80% of the terrorists have been eliminated, Israels incursion into Rafa will reap its own rewards, they are closing in on the bad guys, hopefully they will uncover the where-abouts of the innocent hostages. Of course Hamas could stop any further incursions by Israel by handing over the hostages and surrendering, but as we all know Hamas are quite prepared to fight to the last Palestinian just as it doesn't include themselves. 

Those polls if correct though show little difference between the militants and the civilians, they are all the bad guys then, and how do you deal with that in the future ? Business as usual after ceasefire doesn't cut it. Not by a long chalk.

52 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Why would you not expect it to happen this way? It didn't fall down, a ship knocked it down. 

It was the fact that every span collapse as well I would have naïvely though they were stronger and had ways to isolate total collapse.

14 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

It's called stupidity brought on by years of brainwashing.

Well the explicit policy objective of the attack on Gaza by Israel was to totally eliminate Hamas and looks to have been a spectacular failure. Future Hamas operatives will be trained and supported by Iran, Hezbollah the Houthis and others and Israel is going to have to occupy Gaza completely so we have a scenario now for endless war or a truly epochal genocide of Gazan Palestinians which will guarantee that moving forward Israel will be besieged and pretty much alone. I feel that "my Israel right or wrong" cheerleaders are spectacularly missing this point. Hamas explicitly refer to the woman and children deaths as martyrs and welcome the propaganda message their deaths and suffering bring to the world. I believe the ferocity and brutality of October 7th was to bring on exactly this response and Israel rage-stormed into it.

They fought an anti-colonial struggle to get the colonists from their land. They support the underdog. Haganah widely admired the IRA terror campaign against the British and made linkages with them during WW2. Indeed, Haganah terrorist later PM Menachem Begin had Michael Collins as his password !

https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2003/may/23/guardianletters

Well that carpet bombing of Gaza reducing it to rubble doesn't seem to have changed hearts and minds and has almost certainly acted as a recruiting sergeant for any loss of militants in the coming years. With an Israel facing much diminished global support from their 'friends' where do they go now ?

3 minutes ago, jollyhangmon said:

... as usual tovarich Konstantin here has got a couple good points, calls it an abysmal failure of the KGB, FSB, whatever as well as particularly their anti-terror combo, fat unit apparently stationed just 2.5km from that city hall but took 'em 50 minutes to show up while the perps had already left after 20 mins  ... etc., pp. ...

 

 

 

I tend to agree with the sentiments that said these atrocities have happened in France Nice, Batalan, Spain La Ramblas,UK Manchester Arena Bombing and many others and to say that Russia is unique in this intelligence fail and as a result of being distracted by Ukraine is a bit of a stretch and just Western trolling IMHO.

Every cloud and that. Some can't resist thieving land when the opportunity arises.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68650815

Just ask Daniella Weiss, 78, the grandmother of Israel's settler movement, who says she already has a list of 500 families ready to move to Gaza immediately.

"I have friends in Tel Aviv," she says, "so they say, 'Don't forget to keep for me a plot near the coast in Gaza,' because it's a beautiful, beautiful coast, beautiful golden sand".

I think we can all join in with the applause and what amounts in real terms shorn of codacils to a vote of support from the US. Russia didn't clap though .....

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Everybody wants the war finished when all has been achieved, not just Trump

A charitable reading at best - Israel has never looked more alone on the world stage than it does now, and cheerleaders for the rage bombing on Gaza have played their part in that outcome with applause at the Security Council  outcome and an unprecedented US abstention.

6 minutes ago, transam said:

What photo...........

Found it - before you were 'famous'...

1 minute ago, transam said:

That reads like you are off into a Twilight Zone.

Are you OK...........?  

Thanks for the concern - is that your photo btw ?

I met Chuan at Trat Aiport a few years back by chance - sought him out, did a big wai and said he was one of the best PM's that Thailand had had. (lying of course) he and his party were greatly amused by a farang recognising and bigging him up and got a great photo with him as a result. He said you are a very clever farang - thank you !

3 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

Phuket the new cesspool of Thaialnd.

 

People in Pattaya thank you for taking the focus off beach road.

Hey up there's room for more than one I have a stake in my Pattaya(Jomtien) cesspool. We wear that badge with pride.

7 hours ago, transam said:

I very much doubt it........🥴

Which isn't an absolutely not  - as the machines ping around you and in your drugged state where you struggle to keep your eyes open and you drift into a twilight zone a thought will pop into your head - did I get my apostrophes right. And you will curse that thought. Then nothing....just peace. Them's the rules....

I say this with a very heavy heart, and it echoes what I am seeing in pro-Ukraine channels that I monitor, but if you want to see the fall of the Putin regime then more of these attacks will aid that end. It truly is Putin's 911 moment. I have no doubt that western intelligence is wargaming such scenarios because in financial costs terms they are cheap as chips. Whether they would aid them through proxies, I have no idea - but it would be in a menu of options. This is a terrifying moment though because if they continue a paranoid failing, Putin is a very dangerous global wild card indeed.

When Putin came to power in 2000, he offered the Russians a bargain: to provide prosperity and security in exchange for surrendering their freedoms. A quarter of a century later, Putin’s national security incompetence has proved staggering. In 2022, his spies and generals assured him that Russian forces would sweep to victory and occupy Kyiv in just three days, grossly underestimating Ukraine’s fighting capabilities and spirit as well as the West’s response. In 2023, those same spies completely failed to predict or check a major mutiny by Wagner chief Evgeny Prighozin. And in 2024, they dismissed US intelligence on imminent terrorist attacks and failed to defend the Russian people. Putin has made Russia less secure and less prosperous.

https://archive.is/m0rfR