virtualtraveller

Bold and valid statement. Though I'll add that the failure to hold anyone accountable or reveal the whole truth is symptomatic of Thailand as a whole, applying in many instances to many bigger tragedies that have cost more than 91 lives. Start with the policing of the state, and lack of accountability of law enforcement officers.

I also think the public should be demanding a separate investigation into the intentions of the UDD leadership during their peaceful protest and why it overstepped its rights and responsibilities. I for one have not had a single answer as to who is going to foot the bill for the enormous economic loss, and the indirect fallout on public health as a result of the Ratchaprasong episode.

Look at how this has all transpired, it wouldn't be too difficult for a 'third hand' to persuade the Mingwan faction to defect or break loose from Thaksin Inc after the election - should an 'opportunity' present itself. Reds might scream blue murder - army involvement, disloyalty or whatever, but frankly, if I was Mingwan guzumped by a political lightweight like this I'd also be inclined to go independent, just like Peau Pandin and BumjaiThai factions.

There's a good reason why the 'system' seems to be against Thaksin.

This article from AFP is poorly written.

First, and for the Nth time, a temple ground in the middle of a beseiged centre of a city where both sides are armed IS NOT a safe sanctuary. With 3 foot walls, the temple offers no protection from bullets whizzing around from both sides sometimes fired from hundreds of yards away. In the chaos there is goiing to be collateral damage. You can blame the army, but under the circumstances I'm not sure that they were deliberately targeting civilians. Furthermore, to protect the rights of the public in general they had an obligation to clear the area of protesters who, as it turns out, had armed men among their numbers and had barricaded themselves in. Everyone had been given ample chance to leave the area. The failure to fully investigate (which would implicate both sides significantly) is a blot on the administration's record (not unexpectedly in Thailand where almost everyone of all shirt colour shirks responsibility and blame). I don'think HRW's report reveals the full story without referring to UDD's role in setting up the clash.

Abhisit did not come to power with army support, this is a widely held belief as accused by the reds (the wording they have used is ambiguous to state it as fact), sure we all suspect they (and many others) were persuading in the background but ultimately it was an above board parliamentary vote with Newin being the person lending the key support.

Jatuporn was not jailed last week for terrorism. His bail was revoked for violating his conditions. All others charged are out of jail.

As always, in the present climate you can paint this government as a draconian junta but much of the actions relate to a real threat to overthrow the govt from the streets, without a real justification since it was formed according to the same law that put the PPP in power.

Give her a chance, she hasn't even been nominated/confirmed as their PM candidate yet!

Still, a debate should be mandatory, given the proxy state of politics in Thailand.

I'm sure certain authorities, such as Health Department, are very concerned and have been working hard, however it seems to have been countered by the usual Asian Businessman attempt to silence things, but unfortunately farangs are involved and though you can persuade the local police to give you a clean bill of health, you can't persuade the world that it was all a co-incidental accident. Thus it's backfired and the negative publicity has amplified as New Zealand TV programs etc keep the story alive. There's been no more deaths since late March, the bug or whatever is probably now gone, it appears to be one of those perplexing cases where several plausible theories are inconclusive to account for the random nature of deaths, therefore the possibility of several factors converging.

All, the same it's a lesson (not) learnt, in how not to deal with the situation. Downtown Inn is (I believe) owned by the same guy as the Empress, who was formerly president of the Chiang Mai Hotelier Assoc. - and the reaction to this was very similar to that of the Chiang Mai haze syndrome, where they think first of minimising the impact to business by blocking the health advisories from local authorities, thereby placing the public at further risk.

Curiously there isn't a single comment about the deaths on TripAdvisor for this hotel. But I've seen evidence that tourism has been significantly affected for Chiang Mai as a result of all this.

Who are you kidding, Jatuporn will be richly rewarded for his role in the April protests and all his activities as a free man since. Thaksin wouldn't be so silly as to stab his primary supporters in the back, at a crucial time when loyalties can be bought over by the opposition. Rapid promotion in politics is one reason Jatuporn put himself up for this dirty job. In order to avoid him sitting in jail to the disgust of the red supporters Peua Thai absolutely must put him high up the party list to secure him an MP seat and thus immunity.

Seeing how the yellows turned on the Democrats, I don't think Thaksin would want the same from a more dangerous UDD, besides his talk of distancing PT from the UDD is rubbish, they need each other deeply, he used them to the hilt last year.

The timing of this is unfortunate for the government since it looks (to all the reds anyway) that the system is trying to silence their candidates, but the truth is, the DSI have been trying to nail Jatuporn for months and he's been rubbing shit in their faces with his immunity, and I think the courts have been quite fair in their repeated dismissing of the case against bail revocation. He had this coming, most observers will concur on that.

Of course, Jatuporn is loving every minute of his little excursion to jail knowing he will soon be free and able to get political mileage out of it, disgusting!

Fantastic, as they say in Thai 'Som Nam Na'!

He's been rubbing dirt in the face of law and order for some time and they were going to get him in the end. Still, he knows he'll win a party list seat and be out on MP immunity soon. Makes one sick, doesn't it!

Jatuporn is really the best example of the worse kind of abrasive politician, the type that we don't want to see in future.

With an election looming in both countries, you can expect both leaders to play hardball in order to boost their credentials at home, making a settlement more difficult to reach.

Oh well, Thaksin was willing to divorce his long standing suffering wife to pursue a political comeback, why not throw a sister to the lions eh!

I'm sure Abhisit could give her some sound advice on what's she going to have to face on the streets of Bangkok when her brother decides to fly home in November to commence his war on drugs. (mind you; in the world of drugs, alot can be run from a third world jail )

Put Jatuporn away during the election and he will still be voted in (perhaps on party list system) as a martyr, keep him out and he makes a mockery of the law with his motor mouth. One way or another he wins, that's Thailand for you. Such a farce.

No newspaper columnist has yet gone to the trouble to outline just exactly how easy or difficult it will be for a Peua Thai governing coalition to free Thaksin. This is the big question really. It's being called a 'Thaksin comeback' but it seems to me that there are several hurdles to overcome, in order to pardon the man on two counts. Even with an outright majority I doubt the govt would be able to just grant a pardon (only the king can do that apparently) without some legal justification. Then there's the senate, the supreme court challenging the act, not to mention the people on the streets.

With Thaksin pulling the strings behind the scenes he can obviously start sending foe to inactive posts and eventually put his own 'men' in the judiciary, but as long as he is not free he will need to be nice to his enemies in order to bargain. Besides, if we were to completely walk free (with his political ban expiring within a year) the first thing he'll likely do is put the army in the dock, there's going to be a lot of opposition to that.

I believe that if 50% of the electorate are still fence sitters at this stage, it's probably to Peua Thai's advantage (knowing their vote getting tactics like I do).

Amazingly, a party in disarray with leadership squabbles, run remotely, with a number 1 objective to spring Thaksin, and constantly exposed as fraudulent still manages to edge ahead, only in Thailand.

The most disturbing thing about this is that legally it's very difficult for Thaksin return to Thailand in the near future without having to be arrested and sent to jail. There is no room for appeal or pardon any other way. Yet, here is a man with a doctorate in Criminology who blithely states he'll return within a year (presumably as a free man), which at the very least is contemptuous of the law he has been evading for several years, and is naive and irresponsible for someone with aspirations to lead this country.

Believe me, the hurdles Peua Thai and Thaksin will have to overcome to completely pardon Thaksin are numerous, lengthy and will certainly be subject to resistance from the Senate, The Judiciary, the opposition and/or minor coalition partners, and finally the people on the street. Thaksin is no fool, his advisors will have studied the avenues, but he has an unrealistic belief that anything is possible in Thailand if you are in power and have enough money. I think he's going to find that his judgement on this (as with many other things) far exceeds what's achievable.

It may just be election talk, or in light of farcical political events in recent years, he might just try his luck and step out of the airport and challenge the system with brinkmanship - afterall, with lots of UDD threatening a riot are his pals in the police force really going to carry out an arrest. It would be very interesting to see how the army would react in a such a circumstance.

By the way, even if Peua Thai win 40% of the House seats, the minor parties reserve the right NOT TO FORM a coalition government with them if they feel that the main objective of the administration is going to be 'Bring Thaksin back'. It will spell trouble for the government, the country and for certain party leaders. That's democracy for you, you really don't need a gun barrel to be persuaded.

And the Thai solution is this...

Peua Thai gains the largest number of seats in the House by a healthy margin, forms the next coalition govt, promises the earth but doesn't deliver, dishes out credit cards to the poor, runs up a huge deficit, has a completely dysfunctional cabinet run by an inexperienced puppet (Yingluck) on conference calls to Dubai all the time. Soon the corruption scandals emerge, the coalition partners milk it on the transport, interior and telecomms ministries, but the poor are happy that the 'happy days are back'.

Within 4 months govt tries to push through changes to constitution, coalition partners refuse to co-operate, lots of transfers to inactive posts, the PAD starts making a noise, more moves to reverse the charges against Thaksin and re-open the cases against him, Govt House is besieged, Yingluck has a nervous breakdown, meanwhile a case against Peua Thai from the EC is well underway for election fraud since their del facto boss is a banned politician.

Peau Thai eventually says '<deleted> it' and flies Thaksin in with lots of UDD supporters at the airport for security, citing that it's beyond their control, PAD and lots of general citizens take to the streets for Ratchaprasong II, another tourist season is ruined, by the end of the year Peau Thai is disbanded....

In a way, we have to go down this path to learn the hard way, let Peau Thai be the rightful winners of the election and let them show the country their true colours and let their supported see just what the consequences are. If you thought the last 2 years were traumatic, wait and see what's coming next!

It seems from the recent polls that more Thais than not would like him to come back. If he does he'll have the Democrat's incompetence to thank. They were handed the reigns and then rode in circles for 2 1/2 years.

Which recent polls are those?

http://www.thaivisa....-margin-survey/

Quote

Noppadol Kannikar, director of Abac Poll, said the survey found that 36.4 per cent of the survey respondents would select Pheu Thai, the current opposition leader, while 34.1 per cent would tick the Democrats.

That indicates that 36.4% want Thaksin back and 63.6% don't. That's assuming that if they want Thaksin back then they support the PTP, which is a fair assumption I think.

Assumptions! At this stage, 36% of the electorate (from the above survey figures) prefer Peau Thai, which doesn't necessarily mean 'want Thaksin back'.

I bet if you had a straight up poll, asking 'do you want Thaksin to come back and walk free' - along with an explanation of what this means for the judicial integrity of the country, the largest portion would say 'no'.

This is useful data for predicting the Party List results but is meaningless in determining constituencies. For instance in Nakorn Ratchasima there might be urban voters who marginally help Democrats to a win in that constituency, while 90% of the rural vote for the PT guy (and a reverse scenario in Bangkok). In any case, with last minute vote buying and village headmen auctioning off their village vote, who really knows.

I find it interesting that BJT didn't fare too well, I have a feeling they are going to get punished in all but Buriram.

The key message here, which every voter needs to understand, particularly the less educated and informed, is that unless a party wins more than 50% of the house (ie a combination of constituencies and party list representation) then their leader does not automatically qualify for the premiership. Simple.

It is likely that no party will win more than 40% of the house this time around, in which case we will certainly have a coalition government which depends on the preferences of the smaller parties. Whom they choose to back is entirely up to them. Regardless of who finished with the most votes, most party list, most constituencies, most money, most acceptable ideology and plan for governing, it will ultimately be their prerogative. It is entirely democratic and has been practised for more than a century in many elections including recent Thai ones.

Usually they go where the money is, they might also go where there's going to be the least trouble and compromise - that's something that many should think carefully about.

Some interesting ideas though sounding a bit far fetched to me. I love the way Thaksin speaks with the assurance and confidence of an economic guru that seems contemptuous of the world's best (are other countries really struggling because of high taxes - Sweden, Denmark, Norway for example, with the highest standard's of living in the world).

I saw about two dozen sex toys on 'sale' in Angelwitch on Sunday night, I'm wondering if the police have ever raided that one

As with every story, the context and background reveals a lot more to this. Yes, the army did fire on civilians that mostly were unarmed, yes mistakes were made, yes there were snipers (which btw are very difficult to determine which side they belong to and whom they've been instructed to target), yes the were violent protesters, yes there were blackshirts, yes bullets fired from hundreds of yards away whizzed through sanctuary temples, yes high profile journalists and other 'media fodder' deaths such as volunteer nurses occurred, yes neither the Thai army nor the UDD leadership want an full investigation to reveal the truth behind all this for fear of ultimate culpability on both sides...

The point is, look at the bigger picture, the political divisions leading up to this, the previous April events setting a precedent, the ritual spilling of blood at Govt House, the cynical probability that the UDD planned to elicit this bloodshed all along regardless of concessions and deals on the negotiating table, the three months besieging the centre of the city, the multiple warnings for people go home or be subject to danger, the firebrand speeches urging people to fight their own military and burn down Bangkok, phone ins from a fugitive criminal...

Frankly, I think we got off lightly with 93 deaths, they were regrettable, but most of them were people willingly there when they needn't have been. And in light of the circumstances this was far less 'criminal' than many other events with civilian deaths that routinely occur around the world.

Funny how Cambodia isn't asking the ICJ or UN to remove it's troops from the disputed territory. The statement from the foreign minister suggests Cambodia believes they are the rightful owners of the disputed territory (there can be no doubt that it's disputed and has been for 49 years, though wasn't an issue for 47 of them).

Sometimes I wonder if we're not dealing here with Cambodian Diplomats and Ministers who perhaps missed a decade of schooling back in the seventies.

Though there are some generalised truths to this opinion piece, there's little new substantial information to support it other than a reaction to decentralisation from the Governor's Association (who do have some valid points there).

Thailand's socio-economic make up is a complex one, influenced by a status structure going back hundreds of years and put on steroids for the past 35 years of urbanisation. Corruption and poor moral judgement are at the heart of many of Thailand's inequality ills and practiced equally by rich, poor and those in the middle. An unwillingness to demand better law enforcement is the collective failure of all, most particularly the poor who are at the losing end of it. The Elite are guilty of taking full advantage of this situation without a conscience and actively working to perpetuate it (e.g. the continual stonewalling of an introduction of land tax).

Giles the idealist has finally woken up to the reality that Peua Thai are mostly interested in whitewashing Thaksin and themselves and would cut a deal of amnesty for the Generals tomorrow if it meant springing Thaksin, and the Red Shirts are mainly a group of dodgy leaders using the masses towards this goal. The Reds love Thaksin for his money, Thaksin loves the reds for their numbers and ability to create havoc. Though there is a socialist agenda and many red supporters desperately in need of more equality in Thailand, PT isn't genuinely the way forward for them.

And he asks 'why Thaksin didn't mention pursuing the military for punishment for the deaths last April', well duh! that's because the biggest punishment that ought to be dished out from the incident is to the Red Shirts themselves. Honestly this apparently respected commentator comes across as really naive or blinkered sometimes.

As for Jatuporn, he should know that the Red Shirts have cooked their goose, they are a liability to the Peau Thai in the same way the PAD became a liability to the Dems.

Like his buddy Thaksin, Hun Sen's timing is always impeccable. It's hard to see this latest flare up as co-incidence, given the forthcoming ASEAN meeting, and Thai election, so it begs the question, who is most likely to want to start a border spat right now.

Now, if the Thai army hadn't been so proud, they would have let Indonesian observers in, making it very difficult for either side to be provocative.

And the reason Thailand is being so obstinate, as I see it, is that they are sick and tired of Hun Sen's games.