virtualtraveller

The red leaders have at least garnered some respect by turning themselves in, 4 days later than their pledge, but it shows they stand by their word, and now face detention without immediate bail trial.

It's not over til the fat lady sings. See what's going on at Udon Thani city hall, the crackdown has unleashed a monster of dissatisfaction which will go underground and the only way to return peace is a change in those in power.

Confrontations where both sides have each other by the neck are excellent opportunities to force both sides into a peace agreement. The reds now seem defeated in this battle but not the overall war and now have no reason to agree to any roadmap or long-term peace overtures. They will simply go away and regroup, learning from this lesson, while the govt itself might never recover in the long term having apparently murdered 50 people.

So, what next? A low level terrorist campaign against the govt that is based more on angst and revenge rather than forcing an election, therefore becoming unsolveable, an 'unseen' enemy which you can't negotiate with, and eventually an election which hands power to an equally terrible lot without either side doing anything to resolve the underlying problems and finding common agreement on rules for clean political engagement.

The PT are going to virtually bring parliamentary sessions to a standstill with their stubborn insistence that the govt take responsibility, meanwhile the investigation and charge against the instigators in this will not be able to proceed so long as it's queueing up behind the prosecution of 'yellow leaders'.

Good old Thailand, don't find solutions, just fight and find lose-lose options.

The protest leaders have wanted this all along, from day 1, hence laying siege to Ratchaprasong, and now they're getting it and they're secretly hoping for as big a body bag count as possible because one way or another the Govt will not survive this in the long run.

But Abhisit has a job to do, he's not going to win the next election, so for the sake of Thailand, this needs to be done, clear them out, then talk peace, offer plenty of overtures, push for an election to silence the discontent, jail the leaders, use the opportunity to put strong law and order measures in place, and retire gracefully to Montenegro.

Let the PT govt come and clean up the fallout, spring their buddies from jail, face off against a pissed-off PAD, and get blocked at every attempt to bring Thaksin home.

If the eventual outcome is that most Thais come to their senses and realise that this government were never going to be acceptable and were a mistake and that Thaksin should be left permanently in Montenegro because of what he instigated here, then we can move forward as a country.

I've had problems with Barclays for years, living in Thailand, their service in the UK is OK, but they create all sorts of problems for those living abroad, especially Thailand which has a bad reputation for bank card theft and fraud.

1. Establish if you are dealing with Barclaycard or Barclays Bank, the former is simply a credit card service, the latter is for current accounts and you should have no problem maintaining a current/checking/savings account with them if you have a banking history with them. I receive my statements from them every month to my Thailand address.

2. Barclays, and probably all UK Banks, do not send replacement cards to Thailand addresses, and they might not give you consistent info on this from their call centre in India. Furthermore, apparently according to UK law, courier companies like DHL are not supposed to carry bank cards to addresses abroad and if you try it will likely be picked up in an x-ray.

3. So, whenever you need a card, you need to change your address to a UK relative, have it sent there, then get them to hide it in a book which is mailed to you in Thailand, or sent out with someone. I once received a card, didn't use it for 6 months and then when I did, noticed it was suddenly being used with a cloned version in Malaysia and a week later in Australia. Also, if you temporarily change your address to a UK one and then back it has no affect apparently on your 'address history', which is quite important to banks in assessing your reliability to be 'found'.

4. As for Barclaycard, they have become awful, lots of people I know gave there's back because they were offering very low rates to new customers while ripping older ones off, then when you called to cancel they suddenly offered to lower them to retain you. They won't send me a card being domiciled outside of the UK so I had to lie to them and say I'd moved back to UK, I've been a reliable card payer/user for 15 years, but in this day and age of easy-credit-gone-bad they are reeling in the freedoms, recently my limited was reduced by £800 because I missed a payment by a few days, first missed one in ages. Only reason I keep it is because it would be difficult for me to get another one not living in the UK. So far they haven't discontinued my account (probably because I owe them money) and I got a replacement card in the UK in Sept last year.

5. Your internet banking is critical for management, make sure you have you pin-sentry (sent to me successfully here and PIN letters also arrive OK), and I upgraded to premium (£22 a month) so I can get a UK person promptly answering my phone queries, along with other priviledges. Also, they tend to no longer let you order and collect a card from a branch when you are back visiting the UK.

6. Finally, getting a credit card here in Thailand as a foreign is near impossible. I have one through my Thai wife, on a joint account, otherwise they have disingenuous policy of asking you to deposit 200,000 baht in a fixed savings account (at 3%) so they can give you a credit card with a 100,000 limit (charging you 16%!). If you have a nice corporate job in Bangkok with a big salary and someone to endorse, a foreign bank like HSBC might give you a credit card.

7. Once you are settled here, with a lease and proper visa, it's relatively easy to open a bank account with a debt card that will work all over the world, if you're going to put lots of money into it, insist that they apply interest to it, because by default banks don't give any interest on accounts owned by foreigners (yes crazy I know, but that's Thai banks for you).

8. I find it easiest to draw money monthly over the counter of a forex bureau at my local bank, using my card, I think the charge is 2%, otherwise withdrawals from ATM (up to 20,000 max per 24 hours) is 3%. Getting the money transferred from your bank in the UK is a hassle because a form has to be signed with lots of details and then faxed to a co-operating bank clerk at a local branch there, it takes about a week, the charge is about £20, and you get the official exchange rate. One of my clients has an online fasttrack service, pre-set up and vetted, that enables him to send me money via internet banking that arrives in 24 hours.

Hope that helps.

Funnily, Thailand has some pretty tough libel laws, Thaksin wasn't afraid to use them to sue all and sundry into bankruptcy, no matter how flimsy the charge, the present govt has plenty of grounds to sue some of these community stations - some of them are so full of lies and insurrection-inciting speech you could throw the law book at them, so why didn't they do that (we all know why, this is Thailand where you continue broadcasting your rubbish while the trial takes a year, by which time the govt has changed and the charges dropped).

Here he goes again, it's a wonder foreign media still take this man seriously...

The Emerging Markets reporter forgot to ask this Montenegran if he would be coming back to face his jail term, because I can't see how a fallen government can suddenly render an exiled fugitive free of guilt.

Oh, hang on, I forgot, this is Thailand where you can just pay 1 million poor people to stage an insurrection, so that the army loses discipline among its ranks the police melt away, then you can fly your private jet into Chiang Mai airport, get waltzed off to your private house with a police escort for safety (free visa on arrival for visitors at present including Montenegrans), surround yourself with your 1 million red shirts, lest an unfaithful police officer tries to serve the arrest warrant, and you thumb two fingers at the established justice system (which is a joke by the way).

We've yet to see the final audacious red shirt act...

Naah, ignore all this (assuming you're reading it because you are wife hunting but don't live her)

1. Read 'Thailand Culture Shock (R&N Cooper), it's a bit outdated but applies generally to any lady born before 1975 (ish)

2. Come over to Thailand a few times, spend time with various women you meet online and in the bars, to get a realistic impression about how they are

3. Don't be beguiled by the Thai smile, it's mostly genuine but also hides some more opportunistic Thai traits

4. Know that Thais are generally immature people in many ways, which is what makes them fun and easy going, so date someone your age

Having done all this you'll soon realise that there are some fun shagable girls out there that are good for a shag only, and there are some decent honest women who are lovely, perhaps not as shagable, and lots in-between. The decent ones are usually shy, but looking for a honest, monogamous guy to look after them (and they'll in turn look after you).

Know also that it IS all about money in Thailand and either way you're going to have to 'help' your wife with some money, so she can provide a pension to her family (or lose face), especially if you are spiriting her away to rich Europe or America. And even then, she'll still want to go out and earn more, for nothing makes a Thai feel more satisfied and secure than financial security and status it brings.

Finally (speaking from 8 years experience here); always consider that the Thai mind is one of the most bewildering and non-sensible things in this world, you and your wife are going to have fall-outs (followed by the Thai wife 24 hour sulk), but as long as you show a bit of understanding and respect they get over it. Just treat them like an unsolvable puzzle, fun to play around with but don't expect a final solution to anything.

look at the protracted civil wars that have screwed up many African nations, what do they have in common;

a) A slow imperceptible start arising from one dissatisfied group, run by fanatics who are able to arm themselves

A corrupt police force unable to enforce order since there are so many 'leaks' among their numbers

c) A vast majority who aren't war like yet get dragged into it, by having to take sides to survive

d) A number of renegade soldiers with access to weapons that were easily taken from an incompetent army

e) A lot of poor unemployed youth who are easily paid or persuaded to join a revolution, based on lies

f) A lot of uneducated people easily misled with propaganda and false promises

g) A misguided desire for democracy as a front for power hungry individuals seeking to monopolise the money opportunities

h) A poor grade of politicians with seemingly low ethical behaviour

Sound familiar?

And for the benefit of those on this forum who repeatedly say this government is undemocratic, answer this;

All 480 MPs showed up at parliament in January 2009, the Democrats put forward their candidate for PM, the Puea Thai put forward theirs, everyone voted and Abhisit won. The Puea Thai were actually quite confident the other parties would vote for their man, they lobbied, voted, acted out the democracy process but lost. OK, so we all know there were backroom dealings (typical Thai and world politics), but they did accepted the rules, competed and lost, now they (and their supporters) cannot accept it. Why? Why didn't they just boycott the process for the farce it was? (like the Dems boycotting Thaksin's stillborn April 2006 election).

This govt has the right to govern to the end of its full term according to the rules. On a more practical level, a new mandate is desperately needed and the Abhisit govt admit this and have pledged a dissolution in 6 months, which should answer the Timesonline call for an election. An immediate dissolution or 30 days, is unacceptable to this govt since it's a clear cave in to mob rule. They have a strong point to resist this. The govt has just as much right in this standoff to set conditions for a settlement, and frankly they have been a lot more flexible than the UDD. The more the mob gets out of hand, the shorter the govt can hold on for, but you can't discount the voice of a counter-mob either. If you accept the 30 days of the reds, to return normality, how then do you pacify the 10,000 'coloured shirts', who might have just as much support.

Levelhead is your typical 'rose tinted glasses closet Red Farang', not poor, not willing to go and get shot, trying to justify their actions with intelligent argument that is far from level, with the usual one-sided way of looking at things, naive at best.

Case in point is 4223Rhodes who's read the UDD's 6 points and supports them without supporting Thaksin, can't you the ironies? Here they are;

1) Achieving the goal of establishing a genuine democracy that has the King as our Head of State, with political power belonging exclusively to the people. We reject any attempt, past or future, at using the monarchy to silence dissent or advance a particular agenda.

2) Dissolving the 2007 Constitution and restoring the 1997 Constitution, which may then be amended through a transparent, consultative and democratic process. THE MOMENT YOU BRING BACK THE 1997 CONSTITUTION TAKSIN TECHNICALLY WALKS FREE

3) Bringing Thais together in an effort to solve our political and socio-economic problems, recognizing that such efforts must stem from the power of the people. HOW IS THEIR ACTIONS IN BANKOK BRINGING THAIS TOGETHER?

4) Implementing the rule of law, due process and a system of equal justice for all, free of any obstructions or double-standards. IS THEIR PROTEST RESPECTING THE RULE OF LAW?

5) Uniting all Thais who love democracy, equality, and equal justice within all facets of society, in an effort to deconstruct and move beyond the Amartyatippatai (Aristocracy) system. UNITING???

6) Using exclusively non-violent means to achieve these objectives. WHAT'S NO VIOLENT ABOUT THEIR BEHAVIOUR IN BKK?

They can't even police protesters causing Anarchy in the streets, but they're going after piracy!

Even when I buy a computer from a reputed dealer they offer to install dodgy Office software on it, I'm talking the official Dell dealer.

This the 'truth' according to the Nation, though I don't think even moderate Reds would see this list as definitive.

ChiangMaiFun and Redsunset make valid points, Thailand is sick and needs a revolution, even an almost revolution to shake the old guard into waking up to the 21st century. I disagree that the Puea Thai have the answers, their number 1 stated objective is to return to the 1997 constitution (and we all know why) which will bring further strife.

It's been traumatic, and we should admit we are dealing with a protest group here who come from nothing, have nothing to lose and see total anarchy as a means to pressure for change, unfortunately I don't think their leaders are very good, they seem to lack any plan other than 'confront and don't give an inch', and they might get away with it because no one is allowed to remove them without cracking skulls. But at the end of it all, I think the Elite now realise they have to loosen their grip and monopoly on power, as much as the country has proven to itself that Thaksin is a crook and not fit to lead (even if lots of people still believe it's acceptable for crooks to lead Thailand).

This of course doesn't solve the myriad problems of law and order, abuse of power, wonky loyalties, unfair constitutions and so on, but once the power game becomes a stalemate (probably after a lot more deaths) both sides will be compelled to sit down and thrash out these issue.

I don't believe an immediate dissolution is the answer (it's an insincere demand) and I think the Govt's latest offer of 6 or even 4 months is very reasonable as a compromise, pressure needs to be privately brought to bear on the UDD leaders to come to the negotiating table, the public as a whole should be bringing pressure to bear on them (once off protests demaiding 'immediate talks' in cities across Thailand, peacefully, perhaps), until this small band of destructive men are isolated into non-violent course as the only way out for them.

Not us says the Reds, we're peaceful, we want to surround the Bangkok Bank HQ, oh but the bombing campaign against BB is coincidental, nothing to with us, snipers among the protesters firing on soldiers, nope, not us, we're not taking any responsibility...Songkran riots? Reds being violent, noooo, peacefully demonstrating in front of the Pattaya convention, oh yes peaceful, but Abhisit MUST resign or else...or else what? another peaceful demonstration.

dunno, but a big bush fire just broke out opposite my house in Big C Hang Dong area, the firefighters had to show up. My house stinks of smoke and garden full of burning debris. The dry hot season, grrrr!

This has all the ingredients of a civil war, but it does send a single to the top brass that another coup might not be as seamless as the previous one.

When your military is infiltrated and as disloyal among themselves as this, you realise how rotten to the core this country is, it's frightening. Thaksin has quietly and systematically been working away at the army from the inside, this guy will stop at nothing to get back in, and it looks like he's getting the better of the generals.

If the PT/Reds stand their ground now, refusing all dialogue towards some unity govt, the scales would have tipped in their favour, sooner or later Thaksin would be able to make a return, and when he does there's going to be mass retribution and perhaps more 'disgusted' protesters on the streets than he or the Reds ever imagined. And when it happens the reds are going to come out too and there's going to a massive street battle. Where will the army stand then?

Before the UDD demand one more time for an IMMEDIATE DISSOLUTION can someone among their supporters please answer the following;

1. With near anarchy and violent confrontation at present how is a free and fair election going to take place? Bombs are going off, prominent civil servants are being threatened, people are being randomly shot.

2. Will the outcome of an election be accepted by both parties with a commitment from UDD and PAD that any future protests will be subject to strict rules limited to free expression without intimidation, demand or threat to future govts and public rights?

3. Can we rely on the competing parties to make a sincere pledge to outlaw vote fraud and accept heavy penalties for those found guilty, similarly until the ridiculous law disbanding a whole party to punish a guilty candidate is changed then any further political process is farcical?

4. What guarantee do the Thai public at large (the fence-sitters) have that the next election won’t just be a proxy war between Thaksin and the Army?

5. Will the resulting govt be able to govern peacefully if the status of Thaksin remains unresolved? Either we have to respect the nation’s judiciary and persuade this popular but flawed individual to accept the verdict and fight through the proper appeals process, or ask for a retrial with a new panel selected by non-partisan leaders, or tear up the rule book, grant him a pardon and live with the complicated resulting consequences.

6. Can the public expect that any moves to amend, replace or tear up the present public-approved constitution is done so by broad public participation, drawn up by non-politicians, and put to public referendum point-by-point?

7. Would the various power brokers involved agree to a national conference that clearly defines the role of the military and police, with a transparent watchdog and disciplinary actions for malfeasance or outside interference?

Frankly, without proper answers or acknowledgement to these issues, then any demand for an immediate election demonstrates a lack of reconciliatory intent, but rather an attempt by one power to usurp the other for their own selfish motives. Instead, how about a push for a bi-partisan caretaker govt tasked with the two obvious sticking points that the UDD leaders latently find so urgent; allocation of the budget and replacement of the army chief – let’s face it, these and the lurking ‘Thaksin return’ are the real sticking points that are not negotiable. Solve these first, then the way would be clear to create a more equal democracy and society through the ballot.

THe situation has become such a state of anarchy, where you can't even rely on the police to undertake a simple arrest operation (perhaps they were bribed ;-), the Army has it's own among the reds firing on their fellow soldiers, it seems that the only thing left to do is have another coup, yes that's right, set the clock back to 2006 and this time do it properly!

Round up the red shirt leaders, firebrand leaders, PT hardliners and execute them, take the Thaksin kids hostage, then say you're sorry and hand the mandate back to the people so that the poor can elect a new set of politicians pledging to work for the country not against it. The coup leaders can meanwhile go into exile in Dubai claiming they did it all for the good of the country.

Sounds ridiculous, I'm not suggesting it, but at this stage it would be the quickest and most effective way to bring stability to the country.

Relax everyone!

Samak declared the very same State of Emergency when Yellows occupied parliament. The Army refused to shoot, will they do so again, they've indicated as much that they want to avoid doing the dirty.

It just gives the govt more legal ammo to go after leaders, lock them up, bring in the riot squad and so on. Will this become a protracted occupation (it's really hot out there and everyone wants to go home for Songkran). This time around I don't think the country at large will tolerate another 'occupation'. Funny how quiet Thaksin has become, he doesn't want to take the discredit!

It's all a battle of wits, the reds are getting more desperate and militant by the day, despite insisting everything would be peaceful.

Hang in there Abhisit, don't bow to a mob, especially such a rotten bunch of A-holes.

Typical,

the tour operators contribute to the trashing of the island by bringing masses of people daily, then moan about having to pay a meagre 20 baht per person towards the cleaning up. And have the temerity to let the tourists have to pay it themselves.

Only thing to complain about is whether the fees are actually being used effectively to keep the island clean!

It's the govt getting their hands on it as fast as they can before a THaksin-friendly govt comes to power and somehow puts the brakes on 'taking the money away', this is Thailand afterall!

There's plenty of smoke and mirrors from both sides here, and it's all about timing.

The reds have run out of ideas, but the PM is losing the moral high ground because of the heavy handed use of army security, which had to be hastily sent home. So, agreeing to talk suited both.

The protest has lost momentum, the only thing left now is for them to agree to talks

Their negotiation sounds more like a demand because the longer the government holds out the more desperate they look.

The PM can buy some time from talks and seem to be making an effort towards resolution

The present govt must hang in there until the Army re-shuffle in October, which could possibly be brought forward but cannot occur so soon after the protest.

Taksin is desperate to get an election and control of the govt before the Army reshuffle so he can get a 'friendly' general at the helm and eliminate one more hurdle to his comeback.

A more friendly govt would great assist Thaksin in the appeal process for his assets. An election now would help him while sympathy still runs high after his assets case, from here it's all downhill as he gradually fades from the minds of the poor masses.

So, neither of these two sides are acting entirely sincerely since it's all about dodgy Thai politics with hidden agendas as usual.

Beneath it all, those in power now - while not entirely democratically legitimate - are doing their very best to safe guard the country's law enforcement integrity by making damned sure that Thaksin's chances of a comeback and reversal of convictions are an absolute minimum.

So, within a week or two there's a possibility we'll be having a new election, or within a month a successful no confidence debate might put Puea Thai in the driving seat (making them an 'illegitimate govt).

Question is, when they inevitably return to power just how easy would it be for them to pardon Thaksin? Anyone know their political stuff, I'm keen to know the procedure.

1. To simply pardon someone, can the ruling party grant this without any parliamentary debate.

2. If it's a political case, do they have to have a parliamentary debate and get more than a simple majority (ie rely on coalition partners)

3. Can the senate block the pardon bid.

4. As I understand it, the only one who can issue the pardon is the king, and only based on certain criteria, which is why the petition to pardon Thaksin has gone nowhere, does the same apply. So, no matter what, Thaksin would have to come and serve some of his sentence.

5. PT seem intent on returning to the 1997 constitution, would this be a game changer, does it change the pardon rules (or is that something that remained unchanged between the old and new charter).

6. If the 1997 constitution was brought back, would it immediately make all cases against Thaksin null and void or would this be a matter for the supreme court to decide.

7. What would it take to bring back the 1997 charter? Can the PT achieve this with a simple majority (if they won an election outright), or do they need 2/3rds majority vote in the house. Can the senate block it.

8. If the 1997 constitution was returned, even briefly, what would be the political ramifications for Thaksin and the TRT. If they declared that they were no longer banned just like that, could the old TRT be revived. Would it really mean that all procedures initiated since the coup were unlawful. Would the judiciary and society accept a simple whitewash or would it go to the courts in a lengthy argument, and during which time would it pave the way for Thaksin to return 'pending the outcome' free on bail to 'run the country' and direct things.

All these complicate the issue, notwithstanding the fact that huge street protests would pressure the govt and make them think twice about any audacious moves. The trouble is, there will be a sense of urgency this time as Thaksin seeks to slow down and stop the wheels of justice pending all other cases against him. Basically, the more times he gets convicted the messier and more challenging it is for PT to clean it all up.

I suspect there's a chance something radical will be done to tear up the 2007 charter and declare everything under it void.

Been living in Chiang Mai 7 years now, only in recent years do I remember this being an issue but frankly, it's an age old habit that's never going to change, coupled with no breeze at this time of year to sweep it away, same thing in KL at certain times of the year (totally out of their control since it comes across from Sumatra) and early settlers to Australia remarked how the 'aboriginals' set fire to everything, burnt huge tracts of land annually.

I'm out alot on my bicycle ( have to since I'm training for an 8 day MTB race in mid March in South Africa), and it's hel_l on the lungs, I've got a permanent stuffy nose, wake up with a head full of snot, feeling terrible, everyone here has cold like symptoms, burning throat, hacking cough etc, presumably all the Thais have it to, which leaves me wandering why the local villagers insist of burning their leaves!!!! I can well understand a poor uneducated farmer burning his rice field as a labour saving action, but riding the other evening through San patong I just saw smoldering heaps of leaves everywhere and some of the biggest bon fires ever. It's as if it's a national habit (what to do at 6pm when you're bored).

Apparently in recent years there's been a campaign to warn villagers not to burn, but no one has ever been fined or cautioned and I don't see billboards or hear it on the village announcements. There' just no will, no one sees the hazard and health issue, everyone here in the North is simply too dumb to bother. Personally I just can't see any benefit to burning yard leaves other than to tidy up.

Still, it's a problem that lasts about 6 weeks of the year, right now the PM<10 particle count is still under 100, it's been up to 300 in the past, and Lampang and Chiang Rai have it much worse. It's not a good time to visit Chiang Mai, everything is dry and ugly anyway, I get by staying indoors for a month, but on the whole the air quality here on an annual basis is far better than Bangkok or Samut Prakarn.

Here is the webpage publishing the PM<10 figures over the past 24 hours, keep an eye on it:

http://www.pcd.go.th/AirQuality/Regional/default.cfm

Hey why blockade an airport when you just screw it up instead, an AOT are scratching their heads wondering why Suvarnabhumi isn't top 10. How long has this airport been open.

Never mind, the Red Shirts are going to scare away all the tourists for the next few months, so what's a few months further delay to the delay.

Their rules are disingenuous really. You can't smoke on your balcony (where the smoke easily dissipates) but you can smoke in your enclosed condo, which of course contributes to the very health hazard they are combatting. Of course, the smoke eventually gets turfed out into the open air through air conditioning units.

Agree, it's all pointless posturing and impractical policy made around a board room table by over paid, under worked civil servants who've never once stepped into a bar and realised that our fine police are hopeless at enforcing it.

It's a joke really, people who go to bars are more likely to be smokers, part of the restaurant is near windows so the bar owners consider it to be a smoking section, but the smoke just drifts across to whole bar area. Most bar owners are contemptuous about this law, they even put ashtrays out on every table!