A few years ago I did that mid-life crisis thing of riding a Harley across North America, and based on the people I met, I think Trump will win.
Everyone I met on my trip was friendly and hospitable, but the standards of education, critical thinking and international outlook was much more divided than we see in Thailand. The more 'worldly' outlook was confined to the coastal regions of the East and West, and that big region between the coasts was very different.
As foreigners we're exposed to the people and culture of the East and West coastal regions, but the rest of the country is very different, and that's where Trump gets traction.