Haecksler

6 hours ago, ukrules said:

My insurance excludes both epidemics and pandemics.

 

I would like to take out a corona specific policy - is there such a thing in Thailand?

I remember your post a couple of weeks ago. You have the same insurance than I. An inquiry results in the statement: "you are covered".

A Insurance can cancle coverage in therms of a travel warning from the government IMO.

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Figures about testing need to be taken with a grain of salt. Some are real RT-PCR tests, which themselves aren't very reliable (I've seen 50% estimates for false negatives), some CT scans of lungs (any pneumonia will do) and some by clinical means (looks like you might have it, basically).

 

There are no good quick tests available at the moment: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-sars-cov-2-tests-work-and-whats-next-in-covid-19-diagnostics-67210

I think there are tests available. The mentioned German Team in your report is likely the team of Prof. Dr. Christian Dorsten. This guy together with Stephan Guenter developed the first quick test for SARS 17 years ago. The same they do with COVID 19. This test is available as far as I understood but it is not fool proved.

It is mentioned that depending on the availability (transport time) the result is after 4-7 hours available.

I think if the Thai MOPH want to test they can. The emphasis lays on "want".

The new number of PUI today is 4234 with 1726 still in hospital. So what??

And now it starts that People return home from Thailand and getting sick.

As far as I understand it is now 4 in total. If this number increase it will be bad.

1 hour ago, christophe75 said:

The spinelessness of the WHO is pathetic.

 

Licking China (the Big Master), kissing the thai generals...

 

It's simple : the WHO is "sanook", "happy" and "satisfied". Always.

 

Ah... wait... Not with all countries.

 

For instance, the WHO is a little bit annoyed with.. Italy.

 

Too transparent. They work too fast. They communicate too much (sorry "too mutt").

????

You think it's a joke ?

 

https://apnews.com/6c7e40fbec09858a3b4dbd65fe0f14f5

 

Voilà.

 

So let's summarize :

China, Thailand : licking

Italy : criticizing

 

It's now perfectly clear who is the... WHO.

????

 

A gang of inane bureaucrats working for... themselves.

Precisely nonsense over all.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/img/declaration/banner_declaration_e.jpg

from 2798 cumulative PUI only 86 detected by screening ????

Well done very efficient indeed.

Don't rely on data from Thailand. I wouldn't believe them.

Make your own picture by assessing data from around the world even though nobody can give 100% sure data as this is not possible at this time.

Only estimates are possible.

One interesting point I find is why nobody returns from Thailand to western countries and becoming sick?

In Germany a couple return from Italy and become sick people return from Japan and South Korea and becoming sick but is there any case of a returnee from Thailand becoming sick?

I am think there are much more cases out there without being tested / reported but how ever the situation is still some sort of relaxed.

53 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Reading this thread, I am stunned that some members here believe, with various excuses, that the Thai infection numbers are based on any sort of reality.

Thailand was, by far, the #1 vacation destination for the citizens of Wuhan, twice as popular as Japan. While other destinations took fast action to contain the spread, and banned flights from China, Thailand carried on as normal, anxious not to disrupt the peak Chinese New Year tourism season. Chinese are now using their continued access to Thailand as a backdoor into countries that have blocked flights from China. Some of those travelers passing through crowded terminals will, obviously, be infected.

The magical Thai method of preventing a rise in infections was to stop counting them. The downside of this clever hack is that you cannot contain the spread. Other countries are realizing that Thailand almost certainly has a larger outbreak than any country outside China. You will see them all starting to block flights from Thailand this week, just as the UAE has today.

 

Despite other excellent posts this is by far the most realistic post with best portion of common senses.

Precisely they just do not count them.

Before the criteria of being a PUI was that:

https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-who-thailand-situation-report-17-february-2020

"• The Ministry has added to its definition of a Person Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 infection, by including anybody who presents with fever and symptoms and with travel history to Japan and Singapore (in addition to mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei and environs) within 14 days prior to the onset of illness."

Everybody else which came in contact with tourists felled right through this screen.

The numbers declined - because travel is 80% down. No new case.

Now they changed that and the numbers of PUI rise again.

The other problem is (another poster described that phenomena precisely in many of his posts) that the testing and confirmation procedure is very slow. How many tests are pending is unknown since start of February correct me if I am wrong.

10 minutes ago, sirineou said:

   Our House in Thailand that we build less than Two years ago is sitting empty since we left last spring , I have someone going there, cutting the grass and taking care of some things, but I am anxious to get back . 

   First, to come to Thailand I have to get in a plane with god knows who. then I have to make connections in airports with people from all over the world. Not a good Idea at this time IMO.

  Then , I have Family and business concerns in the US and if this Virus  gets really bad in Thailand I could face travel restrictions, or might have to quarantined in an army base for 14 days upon my return to the US

   Lastly if this thing was to get bad and I got infected, what kind of medical care will I get in Thailand? especially since my Medical insurance is in the US. I see what is happening in China , a country with vastly more resources than Thailand, and "No Thank you" 

 I think it is best to stay where I am at this time

The treatment likely be in a govt hospital.

I just doped the phone with bkk hos. phuk. They don't test and they don't treat. If you are highly suspect you will be delivered to a govt. hospital. That was the words upon my inquiry.

The docs. in the govt hospital are restricted to give information and always think about the computer crime act.

You not find if you not search. Easy as that.

45 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

The numbers do seem low given that ~ 2 million people from China arrived ~ Dec 1 - Feb 4; with some ~ 78,000 (early on) from Wuhan (flights departed, they could live elsewhere in China/Hubei).

 

Latest report (17 Feb) says they have 82 "under treatment".

 

I think they'e fudging the numbers, but not to a significant extent (i.e. less than 100 cases, but more than 35). 

 

No clue why it hasn't been a more significant outbreak, but thankful.

 

Was in Singapore 10-17 Feb. The extent to which they make accurate, beliavable information available was a breath of fresh air, as was the PM2.5 figures in the 30's.

 

 

 

 

May be you read this: https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-who-thailand-situation-report-17-february-2020

Never see this before as this would have answered my main question. This is from the WHO Thailand....

"• The Ministry has added to its definition of a Person Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 infection, by including anybody who presents with fever and symptoms and with travel history to Japan and Singapore (in addition to mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei and environs) within 14 days prior to the onset of illness."

I assume that all people without any travel history such as taxi driver, hotels staff, shopping center staff, waitress etc. in a nutshell all those people with closes contact to Chinese tourists are falling right through this screen and might never listed in this statistic nor being tested.

As now travel is in some places 80% down would explain that the numbers of PUI are down.

This is exactly how statistic is working and I repeat it again it depends on how the numbers are gathered.

And this is the more scary part:

"• Health authorities reiterate that the Government continues to plan for the possibility that human-to-human transmission may escalate in the weeks and months ahead, bringing an increase in the number of cases from more areas of the country."

And this is the interesting part:

"• Authorities are registering commercial test kits for COVID-19, to ensure that at least one key hospital per province across Thailand initially has the kits necessary to carry out testing of suspected cases."

No panicking no fear mongering. Just common sense of a father of 2 kids. We need transparency to make the right decision.

11 hours ago, gajpaw said:

But still doubts remain. 
a) why 70 million country has only half of cases in comparison with Singapore? (6 million?)

Great contribution interesting post.

Especially 70 Mio people and Govt. doing absolutely nothing in comparison with other countries. E.g. Malaysia is checking upon arrival your travel history; other countries ban / restrict travelers from China.

I don't believe the numbers from Thailand the only indicator I can see is:

1. Tourists return after travel in Thailand and are tested positive this is not increasing yet. 

2. Hospitals filling up...... this number might difficult to obtain hence my question:

You mentioned "On other media some people start to share similar or even worse behaviours:" is it possible to mention this medias? 

3 hours ago, BestB said:

I have no idea , all I know is that no one knows anything . Watched video from US , I think it was a WHO conference , where they basically said  origin is unknown , 100% not from the seafood market . It is airborne, do not need to be in contact to contract it. They also said SARS was nothing in comparison to corona and China is lying , real numbers last week were at almost 60000 dead and by the end of the month most likely will reach 300000-500000

 

another scary thing that was mentioned , was that it could of been man made 

would you please post the link for that video? Search doesn't helped.

50 minutes ago, saengd said:

Zero Hedge and the Daily Star, are you for real!

 

Look, we can all suspect all we want but it doesn't mean beans until it is proved to be real, not I think it's could be real, maybe.

Then better believe the CCP good luck with that. There is nothing proved and never will. The bodies are burned right away and unlikely they will test on corpse. Sorry for posting unreliable resources but this topic is just to old. Just think logic: They admit that they struggle with the detection of cases and now change this. So do you really think they test all deaths? We don't believe the amount of cases but we believe the amount of deaths? how that?

7 minutes ago, rabas said:

Have you thought about asking the hospital for a copy of the test results? They will have a record. That would clear up what you contracted.

 

They may be using something called a Respiratory Pathogen Panel (RPP).  A simple one tests for 21 pathogens from a single swab with a 6 hour turn around time. It can find the below pathogens. Note it can identify the common human corona viruses by type.  I have looked but can't find any test for just "corona virus".  So I think the hospital probably knows already.

 

•Adenovirus types A,B,C

•Enterovirus group

•Human bocavirus

•Human coronavirus (229E,OC43,NL63,HKU1 types)

•Human metapneumovirus

•Influenza A - Human influenza subtype A,H1,H3

•Influenza B

•Parainfluenza types 1, 2, 3, 4

•Respiratory Syncytial Virus

•Rhinovirus/Enterovirus

•Chlamydophila pneumoniae

•Mycoplasma pneumoniae 

 

This is probably the kind of test the Thai were using to diagnose their patients under study, PUI, in addition to nCoV2019 testing.

 

That would clear the doubts. The other thing is "they don't have room" is not the first time I heard in the last couple of days.

Another thought if every suspect with symptoms would undergo the mentioned test and everything would be negative would this case then be a "highly suspect" for COVID-19 virus ?

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Let's see how long, if ever, before yours (presumably a farang case) shows up in the new CV cases that the Thai Department of Disease Control is publicly reporting periodically.

 

That ought to give a pretty good indicator, of the extent to which they may be fudging the real numbers, or at lease delaying them... Though I should note, their own protocol calls for any CV diagnosis, before it's publicly reported, to be confirmed by one of Thailand's couple of national labs in BKK... And presumably, there's some time lag between a local test result and the national labs doing their thing.

 

A statistic is only worth to believe if you know how numbers are collected.

I fear that slowly the hospitals filling up and a outcry on social media will occur.

I think that most of the mild cases are just send back home as the OP case in hope everything will disappear.

Maybe they have a fast test but in order to be official the known departments must confirm. In that way they can keep the stat low. Just a thought.

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

That of course goes for the deaths too. They won't bother doing PCR on corpses.

Precisely! Therefore the mortality rate is still pure speculation.

Good news IMO outside China the severe case rate is low as well as the death rate.

But how does it look like in Thailand??

18 minutes ago, saengd said:

Blah blah, so none then! Folks should calm down and quit spreading hearsay, it's not helpful.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-china-hiding-true-number-coronavirus-deaths

https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/27/china-is-hiding-the-true-number-of-coronavirus-deaths/

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/wuhan-coronavirus-crematoriums-working-247-21434630

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

An also something from WHO and how CCP is working.

Are you happy now? You should also look at some earlier posts but I guess you won't bother.

12 minutes ago, saengd said:

Where's your proof that is the case?

Every media reported that I really don't want to go through that again. That is already weeks old.

1 hour ago, saengd said:

I don't suggest for one second that anyone ignore the advice of the WHO, it's called the World Health Organisation for a good reason.

If the WHO would do it's work it doesn't praise the Cinese for the great work. If the WHO would do its job there would be already worldwide standards for criteria of suspects, testing and tracing in place. As far as I know this is not the case so every country is doing what they can / want do. Compare the numbers of cases of different countries just doesn't make sense. Welcome to the globalized world.

1 hour ago, ben2talk said:

Yes, avoid advice from WHO at all costs. The Chinese have said that they are just guessing - there could well be ten or twenty times the number of confirmed and even suspected infected people in total.

 

That's actually good news, as current figures suggest 2% fatality, but if it's underreported by 10 times, that figure falls to 0.2%.

Yes that is completely right unfortunately the deaths are under reported, too and may be on a much greater height. So no good news for now.

19 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

Good point but in Wuhan the infected people where much concentrated and don't forget the big dinner a couple of meters away from the wet marked.

Here the whole thing is much more scattered and assuming that many people might totally unaware because they never where in China.

16 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

It would be the logic outcome concerning the fact that Thailand does only little to contain the virus.

Therefore those numbers on the MoPH web page are difficult to believe. By the way now only 117 in hospital versus 660 dismissed. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

Maybe. But I've seen some pretty impressive coverups by certain institutions in this country. 

Indeed this thing still scares the s...i out of me/us.

But the numbers might give us some sort of a breather. How ever if you you see this page    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/      and just, without any scientific attempt, you'll get the result of 4% severe cases outside China.

That's X40 of a flu as far as I know. That means if you get it the possibility to end up in ICU is very high.

Watching the numbers and protect your self and your family still the best advice at this moment.

1 hour ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

Can't be more agree I also don't throw out the all - clear- message but 3 weeks since Wuhan is closed, I just backed off and watched. What I see now is far away from an outbreak in Thailand. Yes they might be lucky as all of the Chinese are disappeared and the the infected are cured and the virus might dislike the hot climate. 

How ever as long the situation in China is that severe there is still the advice of caution appropriate. 

Without any scientific attempt but only using the given numbers the percentage of severe cases outside china wold be 4% and within China 16.4%.

These numbers are lower than the scientific numbers but in any circumstance it is not like a flu (0.1% severe cases) it's definitely not like a flu.

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

So the 4000 tourists disgorged on Phuket, yesterday, had 100% healthy crew members looking after them?

No because Thais are 100% immune ..................................against logical thinking and common sense.

1 hour ago, SkyFax said:

Covid 19 shows Cambodia as a small country with a big heart

(10 minutes ago)

 

Being aware of the risks, Cambodia has very taken bold, decisive steps to assist those in need to deal with common global threats such as the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COID-19). ...

Twenty passengers who were suspected of being infected by COID-19 were transported via helicopter to Pasteur institute in Phnom Penh for testing. All of them were COID-19 negative.

 

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50691233/covid-19-shows-cambodia-as-a-small-country-with-a-big-heart

I would be doubtful concerning the capability of Cambodia to test this people within that short time.