Haecksler

16 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yesyes suresure. So, how big is the diagnosis backlog?

I am always agree with that point. They don't show it any more.

Now just assume that 2% of the cases of PUI where infected and recovered they would have infected many  incl. hospital staff and others during their time in and of the hospital, assuming they are not treated in quarantine. This infected people if severe symptoms are developed will go to hospital and searching for help, right or wrong?

So why is this number now decreasing?? I mean this number would be not easy to twist as doctors, nurses and patience would possibly post on social media if hospitals are beginning to fill up...?

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/img/declaration/banner_declaration.jpg

There are now only 150 people PUI. The rest is gone treated. Whether they was positive or not nobody knows. 

The big question is how we should interpret those numbers knowing they derived from a not really trustworthy source.

20 hours ago, rabas said:

Reasonable theory, UV germicidal lamps kill the virus but it takes time, like a few minutes. But forget UV protection in Bangkok. When I came here 35 years ago UV could cook your skin in no time but now there is little UV effect until you get out in the provinces.  Just an observation. 

 

Other temperature studies said various combinations of high, medium, and low temperature and humidity produced different results. In particular, 25^oC and RH 50% was very favourable for virus survival. That's many air-conditioned venues.

Good point regarding UV in BKK. You save heaps of expensive sun block and the ladies skin color remain white. ????

There is something which quite doesn't match with the situation in China and I want to evaluate some numbers regardless what we believe or not. (bare with me I post this on another thread, too)

1. The number of 33 confirmed cases in Thailand seems low, but concerning of the testing procedure which is allegedly slow (4-5 tests per day) this number is quite high IMO.

2. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php   The number of "patience receiving treatment at hospitals" is low and not growing. The number once stands on 410 approx. 10 days ago is now on 355.

3. The severe cases / deaths outside China is low / not growing.

4. There is only 1 confirmed case of people traveling in Thailand and tested positive after return.

If the Virus is spreading fast in Thailand the numbers regarding 2. and 4. should growing but they not.

- correct me if I am wrong.

I also think that some numbers are quite difficult to keep low. I have big difficulties to evaluate the situation in prudently. 

1 hour ago, SuperTed said:

Guys - TH is ranked 6th in the world for pandemic preparedness by the WHO. CFO. I am in HH, and am 100% certain that local hospitals are reporting suspected cases and submitting for testing. Assume the rest of the country is the same. We are as reliant on tourism and as disconnected from BKK govt as any other destination.

 

Virus incubation is typically 5-6 days. 14 days is the last 0.5% of cases. That means we have been through 3.5 infection cycles since sick PRC tourists started arriving for CNY. If nCoV was going to explode in TH, it would have done so already. It doesn't mean we are without risk. But it does mean things are looking good. Compare TH to Princess Cruise, and how fast the virus grew there.

 

 

I would like to use this post and the replies to evaluate some numbers regardless what we believe or not.

Remark: I am very careful about this virus my kids stay at home at this moment and we avoid any gatherings.

1. The number of 33 confirmed cases in Thailand seems low, but concerning of the testing procedure which is allegedly slow (4-5 tests per day) this number is quite high IMO.

2. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php   The number of "patience receiving treatment at hospitals" is low and not growing. The number once stands on 410 approx. 10 days ago is now on 355.

3. The severe cases / deaths outside China is low / not growing.

4. There is only 1 confirmed case of people traveling in Thailand and tested positive after return.

If the Virus is spreading fast in Thailand the numbers regarding 2. and 4. should growing but they not.

- correct me if I am wrong.

I also think that some numbers are quite difficult to keep low. I have big difficulties to evaluate the situation prudently. 

10 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

This is not Wuhan, and if you can read, I said it's like a flu for a normal healthy person. 

Yes I can read and I can also understand. You obviously not. You even not bother to go through some of the forums and through expert literature. Otherwise you would not post this utter BS which is downplaying the real threat from this virus.

But go ahead and feel well smile and wave.

4 hours ago, Max69xl said:

Please don't exaggerate. it's not a horrible virus. It's actually not more than a flu-virus for a normal healthy person 

Tell this to doctors of Wuhan

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, it's a factor: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

 

 

A successful kill of microorganism is granted @ 60°C over more days.

I think UV radiation might be more the reason of less patience in Thailand as many activities are outside. In Singapore probaply more people are doing activities inside.

Just a theory.

secondly a study provided that the protein Ace2 which the damn virus needs to connect and is located deep in the lungs is found more in lungs of smokers. The theory is applied on Chinese as allegedly 41% of smokers are male.

2 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

Mainly Dutch*. Orders of ai Anutin himself. Why? Didn't say (never ask why in Thailand). Still no bar on Chinese entering the country. Clearly part of ai Anutin's "all ferangs have horns and a tail" policy which translates to "Farangs have brains and I don't which causes me a severe loss of face. Send them all home, I don't want anyone to hear what they have to say as they make me look really, really ai stupid". Surprised that ai Anutin hasn't tried to have this forum closed down.....or has he?

 

* "Thailand has refused permission for passengers from Holland America’s cruise ship MS Westerdam to disembark, its health minister said" Reuters.

Hi might be more desperate abut the thought that the infection rate will increase after the passengers return on board. ????

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

Meanwhile, Chinese tourists continue to pour in to this fair land. The competence of the Thai government makes the State governments in Oz look like models of productivity and probity.

Yes and meanwhile the virus spread within Thailand without much knowledge.

Who on earth with the capability of logical thinking and a understanding of "common sense" will believe that Thailand is spared from that virus knowing the current circumstances?? 

As I do not thrust the official numbers the best way to find out whether the virus spread is to see how the hospitals fill up.

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

that it is now the Misinformation Age.

I would go even further and tell that IMO the newspapers regardless of which are now changing the tone into more downplay.

Ny. Times wrote a couple of days ago interesting points of the under reporting from the Chinese. Now it seems every news agency change and start this irrelevant BS comparing the CoV with the flu.

Scary IMO.

9 minutes ago, Chicken George said:

The big question is for Expats is can you afford to get the virus? In other words would you report yourself or stay in your home here? Maybe cost one million or two for specialist care here? 

Very good point.

I had pneumonia a couple of years ago and the costs does not even exceed my deductibles. But in case of an outbreak I would not bet that you get treatment for that costs. Furthermore your Insurance might not cover the case of pandemic.

I just wait of  the answer of my insurance on Monday concerning that question.

The other side is if you are sick many others are sick, too. This would be the case where you avoid the hospital at all costs.

But the facts which coming out of the Thai Govt. are not clear and obvious.

A incomplete information is not determined as fake news how ever an incomplete information lead to wrong assumptions.

E.g. the list is ..https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no34-060263.pdf. contain information which IMO are not complete.

E.g. what are the criteria of being PUI? What are the conditions of the hospitalized patience?  How many cases are tested every day? Any details of the hospitalized patience. etc. etc.

It seems that the government just publish the very necessary in order to keep the people calm.

The only thing we can do is read between the lines.

If a Health Minister react how he react and tells us we do our best it does not convince me.

If the BMA now prepare for accommodate infected people it' appreciated but it also show that something going on in the back ground.

Again prepare for the worst hope for the best.

6 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

The significance of this complication rate is that, even though the virus may only produce mild symptoms in many people, at least 20% of confirmed cases are currently ending up as cases requiring ICU care, and those cases will require intensive medical attention for a week or longer! 

 

This means that as the number of confirmed cases rapidly escalates, there simply won't be enough ICU beds for patients needing them.  That is when the mortality rate will rapidly soar form what it is now!

Can't be more agree.

Common sense just common sense I don't understand that people refuse to think by them self instead of that bouncing around with numbers which are not verified at all.

Where is the point in taking that risk? We do not know enough about that virus to give all-clear-signal.

Therefore stay away from the risk incl. your family and wait what happen.

If nothing happen (what I still hope) then you are fine.

If the situation gets worse you are prepared. I think that is not rocket science.

7 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Don't underestimate the Thai public health system.  

 

Thailand seems to be well prepared for an outbreak should it occur.  It is ranked by Johns Hopkins University as the best prepared Asian country in the event of an outbreak, and sixth out of 165 countries globally.  It also ranked second in having a robust health system capable of treating the sick and protecting healthcare workers, and was ranked third in the prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens.

 

So, even though Thailand may be the most likely country outside of China for an outbreak, it also seems to be one of the best prepared. 

I wouldn't bet on that. In case of private hospitals yes. In case of government hospitals ........

It would be interesting to know how data are collected. Assuming that the creation of such kind of world wide statistics costs millions $ I would say that there are strong limitations as a University is not a multi billion $ cooperation. 

I am not saying that the German health system is the best. But e.g. the Robert Koch Institute should be one of the top Institutions for SARS and now on this one.

Thailand ways ahead of Germany ..............

The jumps are now much less than expected / calculated. That might due to the "changes in evaluation". Therefore what are the criteria and what is the procedure after being determined as a "PUI"?

On 2/7/2020 at 4:32 AM, ukrules said:

I have a BUPA Global policy that provides me with £1.7 Million worth of cover per year.

 

I read the small print from the policy and came up with this little nugget :

I am in the same boat but don't be bothered to go through the small prints. I just send them an e-mail. I will post it here

41 minutes ago, geisha said:

A bit off topic but please, in airplanes,

apart from sitting next to an infected person, is the circulating air dangerous ? ( air con system) 

In an aircraft 50% is fresh air and 50% recycled. The cabin air passes different systems inkl. radiators to warm / cool the air and filter systems. This filters are designed to eliminate as much as possible pathogens in the air. There are strict regulation concerning the air quality in an air craft. I think the most risk is to sit or be otherwise in close contact with an infected person. Touching arm rests and other items which might contain germ contamination and subsequent touch of face / nose / eyes is probably the most risk when flying in an air craft.

6 hours ago, rabas said:

The video is fair. Thailand has quite good genome research capability largely for agriculture but also medicine. At the beginning they started using full genome sequencing (3 days) and now are using PCR (3 hours). This is what all countries must do before PCR codes or purchasable kits are available. It also sounds like they developed their own PCR codes (better way) and submitted them to WHO rather than downloading common codes. 

 

The problem is with someone else who has 100% control.

Since when they was able to change?

My fear is that the real number are dramatically up.

Vachira Hospital Phuket claim that more than 100 people every day coming in to be checked. Nobody can check 100 people per day.

So those with mild symptoms likely will stay at home.

Sought medical services on their own

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

One of the main sources of PUIs seemed to be airport thermal scans. The number of arrivals is down. The other source would be people with symptoms going to hospital. There might be a delay there right now before an outbreak manifests itself after the incubation time. Just thinking out loud what the possible factors could be.

Good point but the majority of PUI are "Sought medical services on their own".

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The one good thing to say is the number of new patients with symptoms coming into the system as PUI has been decreasing for the past 3 days at least, which is a positive trend indicator if it continues.

I am afraid that this could be absolutely not a good thing,

Just change the criteria of being PUI is enough to change the number dramatically.

As they change what they disclose.

I am scared as people dying even young ones. Compare it with flu is utter nonsense.

Another poster mentioned that there was no room free in a private hospital for his mother which need a surgery.

What we have are indicators not more. And those are not convincing.

I stay away from every mass do not fly and travel and the kids stay at home.

59 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Looks like no new confirmed CV cases reported as of the close of yesterday, Feb. 6, according to today's status report from the Thai Dept. of Disease Control:

I have the same problem with those numbers.

I think it is likely that they do not have enough testing equipment & the procedure to prove a COV positive is very time consuming. A poster mentioned 4-5 tests per day not more, I think he is a doctor.

I assume that patience stay in hospital until symptoms are gone so they never appear in the statistic. I don't think they can test all of them.

There is not satisfying  transparency.

What are the criteria of being a PUI? Which criteria of being in Isolation room.

If those numbers would be more understandable an estimate could be done even without testing them.

The other thing I read is that the mass of people can be tested in a much larger scale on common sicknesses like flu. If a common sickness is not proved but symptoms are present there is a high possibility on CV positive. Is that done here? I don't know.

This are incomplete information

What they are testing? How they are testing? How long does it takes the get the result?

100 per day is a large number, previous reports states Thailand has the capacity of 4 -5 tests per day only.

So what are the common symptoms of the 100 per day people searching for medical advice?

So what are the criteria to become a "person under investigation" ?

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no33-050263.pdf

Another poster mentioned that beds in his private hospital are complete occupied.

How are the situation in all of the Puket hospitals?

1 hour ago, khunpa said:

Hard to say the real number of infected, when the test results never come in.

 

Precisely, uncompleted media reports are not determined as fake news IMO they are.

You can tell all the truth but you don't write the important facts. This is how you can lead the masses and keep them stupid / silence.

Many medias are reporting "there are x amount of deaths / cases" Wrong completely fake. "It was reported x amount ....." would be the right wording.