sadman

Aha - spoke too soon! Danny Cipriani was seen coming out of a nightclub after midnight last night/this morning and has been dropped, so guess what? You've guessed it - BALSHAW IS BACK IN! NOOOOOOOOO!

Also, Simon Taylor returns at 8 in place of Kelly Brown and Jason White is fit again. The back row battle should be awesome. England to win, though, by 15 (I hope).

If Ireland do have a problem at 15, it might be a big one - Stephen Jones will give whoever plays there a torrid time. I would anticipate lots of high balls with the excellent Welsh back row and the centres smashing into him. Also, who will be there to cover tackle Shane Williams?

For me, this could be a good game - always assuming Ireland keep their self-belief. I think the set pieces will be equally scrappy but back rows running off 10, plus centre/wings moves could be very good indeed. Where Wales can dominate, IMHO, is the fullback hitting the line at pace and giving the extra man in attack. But Ireland have BOD.

And Brian Ashton has answered my prayers - Balshaw has been dropped! Danny Cipriani comes in at fullback - I think this is a really sensible move, because it's less exposed than 10 and introduces him to international play against - no disrespect intended - a very poor side. Regan goes, replaced by Lee Mears (Chuter is on the bench - I think I might have reversed the roles).

If England keep their heads and stop giving away stupid penalties - Chris Paterson has a formidable boot - we could smash Scotland. However, if we're not disciplined or patient, we could find a huge tartan banana skin waiting for us.

Aha! I KNEW I recognised the name, although - to my shame - I don't remember much about the man. I've just googled him and I still don't really remember much except the name. Sorry - please blame the onset of age and the ravages of alcohol

I've just seen that Mauro Bergomasco pleaded guilty to gouging Lee Byrne, and has been handed a 13-week ban. Good. For me, gouging is the worst offence going.

Marc Lievremont has made wholesale changes - and needed to. He's gone for a more conservative selection for the Italy game, but I don't know whether that's part of a deliberate strategy or because he doesn't know what to do after his first master plan failed so spectacularly. I rather suspect the latter.

Dallaglio (sticking in his twopennyworth, as usual) is calling for Cipriani to play instead of Balshaw and, I have to admit, it could be a good shout against Scotland - although not against Ireland, who'd just love to keep him under the high ball all afternoon.

Moss - is Paul O'Connell carrying an injury or is he jaded, or something like that? For my money he was the finest lock forward in the world in the year coming up to RWC and then he went off the boil.

Anything at all by Jess Conrad, the man who brought us 'This Pullover', which starts:

'This pullover that you gave to me

I love it and wear it constantly".

You get the drift.

Does anyone remember in the 70s, Capital Radio had the late, great Kenny Everett with a Sunday afternoon programme called "The World's Worst Wireless Show" and he played the most dreadful songs he could track down. There were some classics, there.

Hmmm... I could be mistaken Moss, but I just get the feeling that you are an Ireland supporter

Ok, I'll bite and set myself up to look really stupid (no change there, then). My predictions are:

Ireland 18 Wales 25 (sorry)

Scotland 15 England 30

France 40 Italy 12

Italy 15 Scotland 12

Wales 19 France 27

Ireland 22 England 17

I have absolutely no confidence in the scores and everything is subject to change in the light of injuries or strange selections. The value of your shares may go down as well as up. The management accept no responsibility for any articles left here. No parking.

Well Moss, I'm very pleased to say that I was wrong and you were right about the Ireland game. However, without wishing to appear mealy-mouthed about it, Ireland may only have sparked because they were allowed to. Don't misunderstand me, there was some beautiful play in the backs (the forwards weren't great, though), but they were up against a Scottish side who were, I'm afraid, devoid of ideas, conviction, intelligence and continuity of play. I know they miss White, Sean Lamont et al, but that's not good enough. They were dreadful. The good news is that if Ireland can get their gander up and regain their confidence, we may see what they're really capable of. (I still think they miss Flannery, though).

The England game went as I'd hoped, with forward domination releasing the backs against a really poorly-selected French side. Lievremont has to take full responsibility for that one: he read the runes totally and obviously wrong. IMHO, he coaches as he played - an honest grafter, but a journeyman and totally out of his depth against quality opposition at the highest level. England have got some work to do; one swallow and all that. We gave away far too many penalties, but it's going in the right direction. And for heaven's sake - WHEN will Ashton ditch Balshaw?

In the other game, I think the score flattered Wales, to be honest: they only put a load of points on the board once Italy had to chase the game - of which they are notoriously incapable. While they were still in sight, Italy were always a threat. I was very interested to see that Gatland's selection of Rhys Thomas was proved right. In 2 years' time, Wales could be a very, very good side indeed.

And I'd like to set myself up to be shot at here, by expanding on my prediction that Wales would win but without a Grand Slam. I think that the final order of the table will be:

Wales

France

England/Ireland

Ireland/England

Italy

Scotland

(Still can't make my mind up about the Ireland/England placings).

Your reading of the games up to now has been spot on in my opinion, although I am having difficulty in getting to grips with the meaning, 'of the top two inches', however your reading of the

Ireland v Scotland game will be wrong in my opinion.

"The top two inches" is the top of the head = the brain. Sorry for being obscure, it's just an expression referring to thinking and clever play, rather than just being able to run around.

As for the Ireland v Scotland game, I really hope you're right. I shall be watching it on TV come what may, but I fear it will be error-strewn, panicky and stuttering.

I'm a bit baffled as to why Ireland can't fire on all cylinders. I know they lack strength in depth but they have world-class players and a very, very good coach, IMHO. Maybe they have some mental block after a poor RWC, but the players have been very good at provincial level.

My thoughts also have to be taken in the context of my RWC prediction: an Ireland v NZ final

Well, God bless them for providing such a positive example of how us Brits behave

It isn't enough that we send idiots over to get drunk, stupid and aggressive, take the p**s out of the locals and generally embarass the rset of us. Oh no. Let's have a crime holiday as well, shall we?

It makes me SO ANGRY

I've just seen the England line-up. Wigglesworth in for Gomarsall, the other backs unchanged, Sheridan, Regan and Vickery up front, Shaw and Borthwick at lock, Easter, Haskell and Lipman in the back row. Has the makings of a good side. Still not sure about Lipman, though.

Mmmm. I've just seen the French line-up and for the first time I quite fancy England's chances. France have selected a new half-back pairing and fiddled about with the pack, with the back row in particular being pretty vulnerable. I haven't yet seen the England starting XV, but I don't think there'll be too many changes, with the exception of people coming back from injury.

My own tuppenceworth is that if England can get real forward dominance and rack up a decent score in the first half, France will bring on their - more experienced - subs too late too save the game. Our forwards should (please note the italics!) overpower theirs in the tight five, giving a good platform for the back row to really squeeze and launch the backs. However, France have real talent at 11-15 and if we don't starve them of ball, we'll be made to pay. I hope Chuter plays instead of Regan, because Szarszevsky (sp?) is a handful.

Meanwhile, over here Warren Gatland has been criticised by Kingsley Jones (former Welsh 7 and captain, now head coach at Sale Sharks) for playing Rhys Thomas. Personally, I think it may be a risk but Gatland is such a shrewdie that I'd go with his view. Wales will, IMHO, struggle against Italy, but should just about win, if they keep their heads and can absorb the physicality - they have more skill than the Azurri, but the Italians are quite capable of a simple game plan of smashing down the front door, especially with Bortolami back from injury.

Scotland v Ireland - I'd be most surprised if there is anything to impress.

A couple of points. I don't yet live in Phuket, but get over several times a year and have done for some years. I use my common sense but don't have a gun, or pepper spray or anything. I'm not afraid of going anywhere on the island but would obviously exercise caution as appropriate. I feel safer in Phuket than in London and I think that statistically I am probably actually safer, as well.

To be fair, I live in Cherngtalay (semi-rural, pretty quiet), but I feel ok anywhere. The local police are pretty good - not perfect, but have you seen the police in London lately? Talk about falling standards.

I don't ride a motorbike because of accidents (although I always ride one in London) and I have no problem with taking my children/grandson around the island.

BTW my wife grew up in Singapore (army brat) and although we've been back to visit, she wouldn't want to live there, but wants to live in Phuket.

I managed to see the Sharks v Force game. What a let-down. I'm just hoping it was just first-match rust and that the cobwebs will be blown out.

Not sure about the new laws, though. The free-kicks kept things moving quickly but I'm not sure it's an adequate sanction for being deliberately offside. Hopefully everyone will get used to them, but surely there's little point in emphasising open, running rugby if the team in possession is being disadvantaged?

Oh, I don't know - it's always nice to listen to Stuart "I'm not bitter about being second-string to Rob Andrew for my entire career" Barnes

And as for Jonathan "I hate any side that's not Wales and really, really hate England" Davies - well, there's unbiased observation, isn't it?

I quite like Ian Robertson, but no-one has ever taken the place of the great Bill McLaren - in my view, the greatest rugby union commentator the world has ever seen. Incisive without being hyper-critical; could point out errors without being unpleasant; fulsome in praise without brown-nosing; and with a quite encyclopaedic knowledge of the game and its players. He was the best.

Warren Gatland has already named his squad for Wales' game against Italy in 2 weeks' time. He's chosen an entire new front row and both halfbacks, plus a couple of other changes.

He is one shrewd cookie - keeping the others guessing all the time. England missed out big time and I think we're going to regret it for a long time to come.

Oh dear oh dear oh dear. I was hoping I'd be wrong and England would be superb, but...

For years I've been championing the English forwards and bemoaning our lack of invention in the backs. Now I have to say that backs weren't too bad but the forwards were poor around the park. We looked unfit/slow/tired and lacked real grit in the back row. Haskell and Lipman showed their immaturity at this level, while Easter did what Easter does - he's a big banger who needs inventive, sharp flankers around him. I thought Payne had a good one, Stevens was ok but outplayed in the tight and the loose, and Regan was slow and ineffective in everything bar the lineout. Borthwick and Shaw were good but, frankly, when surrounded by front and back rows playing the way they were, were never going to shine.

The halfbacks were good, with Wilkinson proving a point. Neither Wrigglesworth nor Cipriani were brilliant, but they're young and it was right to introduce them gradually. Yes, Cipriani dropped a clanger, but that's the difference in tempo and pressure between club and international levels; he'll learn and be very good indeed. The wings were ok, Noon and Flood made a decent fist of centre play, and Balshaw - well, he was Balshaw. Lewsey should be in his place.

I have to be honest - I've never been one to demand the manager's head, but my views on post-Woodward management are long-held. Robinson was a poor choice and was allowed to stay too long. Andrew was brought in to save RFU face by taking over the decision-making without sacking Robinson, who eventually had to be got rid of anyway. I was very pro Ashton's appointment for the period up until RWC 2007, but felt that he should only ever have been a caretaker-manager.

After RWC (in which I thought Ashton did us proud) I was very much for Gatland coming to the England helm. We have again missed the boat. We have a serious problem in English rugby. Our league system is pretty good, the academies are outstanding (by and large), we have no end of real talent and some truly great managers. And we are still governed by an archaic, self-serving organisation living in the past and who believe in their own importance. I have dealings with them (through my club) and they are unbelievable.

BTW, Wales and France did what I expected.

I've just seen the England lineup to play Italy and, to be honest, can't really see what Ashton's doing. He wants to bring in new players - fine, that's the game in which to do it. However, he's changed the loosehead prop and the 2 of the back row, bringing in real novices. I know injury has affected this, but against a rampant Italian pack, it could be a problem.

Vainikolo deserves a start and Sackey was ok; the halfbacks should stay - but Noon and Flood in the centre? Weak point again. And Balshaw's playing again. What does he have to do to get dropped?

IMHO, Italy's game plan will be to slow down scrum/ruck ball and make the hard yards, then get try to bash it up the (weaker) middle. They don't have the luxury of great wings, so avoiding Sackey and Volcano is perhaps a wise move. England to win but not convincingly; Italy to get perhaps a couple of tries (but they have no kicker). A forwards game.

If England can keep the ball, they should rack up the score, as this isn't a great Italian side (particularly in the backs), but the forwards have their work cut out. England have little to gain and a lot to lose.

Well, after the first weekend my opinion hasn't changed. Ireland and Scotland were poor but can improve - O'Sullivan and Hadden are sensible, solid coaches and can build (I just hope the IRFU and SRU don't panic).

England's selection was poor, which is part of the reason why the decision-making was bad. The injuries didn't help, but good players played badly and the poor players were grim. Sackey and Strettle played well but the 4 wings pretty much neutralised each other. Tindall and Flood are not a good combination anyway, but played poorly, not helped by having Balshaw playing his usual game (1 good break and a liability for the rest of the time). The Welsh back row outplayed ours, as did the 2nd row. Wales were ok and we were shocking. Wales will build on this.

As for France - I don't think they were that good. Against a good side (sorry, Scotland - you could have been so much better) they would have really struggled. Nallet, Traille and Clerc had very good games, but otherwise they weren't that great - they were simply allowed to throw the ball about.

Oh dear me. My head proved more reliable than my heart and it went as I'd feared. Nothing to add, really: Ireland scraped a win against Italy and Wales showed that they're better than the critics reckon. And England? The mods would ban me if I said what I feel. But not a surprise, sadly. The top 2 inches.

I still think the same: no Grand Slam; not a vintage tournament and Wales to win overall.

If anyone has seen the BBC sports reports (www.bbc.co.uk but I don't know how to create a link) I note that Matt Dawson thinks the same as me - that Wales will win the tournament, for the same reasons as me (but I said it first).

Another interesting development is that Jerry Flannery has appealed against an 8-week suspension for stamping. The result of that will be critical in Ireland's fortunes, methinks.

Well, well, well. I've just seen the team selections for England and Wales: Wales are fielding 13 Ospreys in the 1st XV (plus Martyn Williams and one other from the Cardiff Blues).

England have put Iain "the perennially injured underachiever" Balshaw in at full-back, Flood and Tindall in the centre, with Haskell, Moody and Narraway at 6,7 and 8 respectively; Sackey and Strettle on the wings; usual Wilkinson/Gomarsall halfback pairing, with Shaw and Borthwick in the 2nd row, and Sheridan, Regan and Vickery up front.

For me, England to win in the front row, with the 2nd battle row being anyone's guess (Wales have Gough and Alun Wyn Jones). Wales will do us in the back row (Williams, Jones and Thomas), half backs (Philips and Hook) and attack through the middle, as I think the wings could all neutralise each other.

So, my guess is this: Wales will seek to get quick ball from scrum and lineout and get the attack moving quickly with back row, halfbacks and centres linking together and keeping it fairly narrow to start with, then spinning it wide as they commit defenders. In other words, straightforward, simple rugby. England to complicate it or slow it right down, IMHO. This will all be about the top 2 inches - at which Warren Gatland is the master.

I've got a really uncomfortable feeling about this one.... I hope I'm wrong.

Always riveting - I couldn't agree more. I love the Heineken Cup and RWC (in that order), enjoy Tri-Nations and Super 14s (in that order) but nothing gets me going like the 6 Nations. It may not have the brilliance of some tournaments, but for sheer naked passion from players and supporters alike, I have seen nothing finer.

I probably can't explain it very well to someone outside our 6 countries, but give me the 6 Nations any day!

BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!

As a dyed-in-the-wool, passionate England supporter who has followed them around the world, my heart says England....BUT.....my head says (believe it or not) Wales, if only by default.

Straight off the back of the RWC, England and France have both lost key players and have to start to build some shape and confidence. France also have a new manager who, IMHO, isn't up to it.

Scotland and Ireland are both struggling with a lack of strength in depth and lack of confidence; however, both have excellent managers and should do ok - again, building slowly, but with limited resources.

Italy are terrific but still minnows as far as winning the whole tournament is concerned.

Wales, on the other hand, have got a truly outstanding management team, have lured Martyn Williams out of retirement and, most importantly, have lost the key divisive person in the camp - Gareth Thomas. Great player though he is, he led the turmoil which caused Mike Ruddock to resign and Gareth Jenkins to fail. Wales also have Dwayne Peel (the best 9 in the world, IMHO), Ryan Jones back from injury, Gethin Jenkins just getting better and better, Alan Wyn Jones imperious, etc.

I think Wales will out-think everyone but England, and beat Italy, France, Scotland and possibly Ireland.

For me, no grand slam and not a vintage tournament.

I haven't posted for a while, for a whole variety of reasons, so I hope I've not been totally forgotten!

Mrs Sadman and I (together with 3 of our children and our elder son's girlfriend) are getting into Phuket on 21st December (after hitting Beijing and Bangkok first).

If anyone is around over the festive season I would be delighted to renew old friendships and make new ones, presumably involving ale. Is anything planned, or might I suggest a meet?

And BTW - does anyone need anything bringing over from the UK (not too bulky, please, as I've got a long and very indirect journey)?

After several months of domestic upheaval (children ill; trying to move house; work challenges) Mrs Sadman and I are finally managing to resume normal service and are coming back for the summer.

We need to spend a couple of weeks in Bangkok but are hitting Phuket on 20th July, and are back for a month.

Is there anything planned, or would anyone like to get together for a small glass of dry sherry at some stage?

BTW: Happy July 4th for yesterday to my colonial cousins.

Hayman and Woodcock must be watering at the mouth. Scrums to AB, line outs to Wallabies. Giteau/Mortlock/Latham (haven't seen the lineup yet, but I assume they're in) to wreak havoc, but AB back row to do the real damage.

High scoring, but AB by 12, IMHO.