Dogmatix

I suppose it's tough to get a big red crowd when they're not being paid. Thaksin must be running low on cash, or finally figured out it's a waste of money. He's probably building a nice guest house for his sister in one of his new adopted countries.

1.4 million farming families are also running low on cash after being bilked in the rice pledging scheme. Perhaps that was the government's shrewd strategy - to make sure they had no money for the next rice planting, so that they would have no choice but to take the work offered as rent-a-mob.

If Adul has really defecated on defected from the Shinawatra family, we should expect to see spikes laid on all the major highways coming from Isaan and the North. No need to derail the trains. They derail spontaneously.

It is starting to sound like the Wars of the Roses.

Is it true, as alleged in the Bkk Post, that National Police Chief Pol Gen Adul Saengsingkaew has defected and is no longer prepared to render total obéissance to Shin clan members?

I wonder if the last cheque bounced.

At least they should still be able to rely on Metropolitan Police Chief Pol Gen Kamonrit. The photograph of Thaksin pinning the insignia of his new rank on him in HK made his so nauseous to the opposition they wouldn't take him at any price.

Jattuporn is directly threatening the courts not to uphold the law, and this is going to be symbolic of what they will suffer if they fail to allow the PM and her bunch of cabinet puppets to walk free from massive corruption and breaches of the constitution.

They should be all arrested immediately, they are a threat to democracy. The are just adding more and more weight to Suthep's argument.

The PDRC may well have besieged government buildings, but there is not a single report of them entering the private areas, only the public areas and they certainly have NOT burned any place down.

On the other hand, when YL and this cabinet are removed right after Songkran let us see the red shirt version of protesting.

The burning and shooting and looting will restart, and they will be extinguished.

In the absence of a cabinet and a political vacuum is in place... CAPO will cease to be, as it will have lost the governance with which it was set up. The police will have to fall under military control, which pretty much means martial law.

The PDRC will be sent home by Suthep and the reds will try their silly 2010 stunts again, and the army will have no choice other than to round up all the leaders and lock them up and crush any resistance.

Jatuporn is approaching his final days of freedom, and may never walk as a free man ever again.

In a total vacuum I am not sure what happens legally to things like CAPO. I think it is for a set period that needs to be refreshed. So I guess it would just expire, if there was no order to renew it but, until then, it would continue in lieu of any order to rescind it. However, caretaker ministers Chalerm and Suraphong would be out office. So it would be run by Tarit and the police chief Adul who has allegedly defected. At any rate, you can be sure that without any political bosses Tarit and Adul wouldn't dare take any action against anyone and would be as meek as lambs.

The Post also suggests that Thaksin is complaining that National Police Chief Adul has defected to the opposition. Rats leaving a sinking ship I wonder.

DSI chief Tarit has changed his shirt colour so often he might have the distinction to be the only person charged with murdering both red shirts and Suthepistas. I wonder if he's ready to roll the dice one more time too. A few more murder charges can't make that much difference.

This must be costing Thaksin a small fortune , not to worry though as he has already stolen a large fortune from Thailand

Press reports suggest that Thaksin was unhappy about the poor turnout in the previous round of red shirt rallies caused by Pheua Thai (former) MPs not meeting the quotas of red shirts each was ordered to mobilise, mainly because the MPs didn't want to spend the money. Other factors were that Isaan and Northern people are becoming bored with politics, are pissed off over the rice pledging scam and over the Amnest Bill. Many also think the caretaker government has brought problems on itself that could have been easily avoided, viz the Amnesty Bill, the rice pledging default, the Thawil transfer. Many of the PT MPs are facing indictment by the NACC over their support for the Senate Reform Bill which has tied them down in legal proceedings and might eventually land them with a 5-year ban that would make it impossible to get any return for monies they give to the red shirts now.

To get a large turnout Thaksin might really have to put his hands into his own miserly pockets. Anyway many of the farmers have now money to plant rice and are facing a serious drought. Red shirt rallies may be the only work available for them.

He pointed out that the price of Thai rice had not increased as much as the government had expected, even though the pledging project was aimed at boosting prices.

Mr Wanlop is a master of understatement.

It's interesting to note the Post's comments today that Labour Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Capo di Tutti Capi Pol Captain Dr Chalerm Yoobamrung LLD has just relaxed regulations on overstaying labourers from neighbouring countries prior to ordering Labour Ministry officials to encourage factory owners in the Mahachai area to send their Burmese workers to join the red shirt rehearsal rally in Aksa Road. One can imagine that the relaxed regulations might not apply to factory owners who decline this kind invitation.

Perhaps this is a sign of a new government policy forcing allowing foreigners to participate openly in Thai gutter street politics. Satish Seghal should be pleased.

"I feel sorry for the prime minister because she is stuck in a crucial political situation."

I felt sorry for her stuck in that wheelchair pretending to be a cripple and being wheeled around his acquarium by Banharn, the political godfather of Suphan Buri who never earned an honest penny in his life.

If the NACC find sufficient evidence to recommend charges of Negligence against her, I'm presuming this then goes before another court/Senate? Will this court then expedite this case within days, or will they go through their current crop of cases, till such times as hers comes along?

Obviously the NACC want to hear from all these witnesses before Songkran, which is in 10 days, they will then have to go through all the evidence presented, and draw conclusions, and then make a decision based on said evidence? Again, this isn't going to be instantaneous, unless as some may claim, they already know the outcome, once they've made their decision, I would presume again it goes to the courts/senate, and they then convene a meeting, and decide when to impeach Yingluck for negligence, based on the evidence, wouldn't all of this from the last day of the NACC witness testimonial take time, possibly several weeks?

Would it be reasonable to then say that there's every likelihood she will remain as caretaker PM till at least the end of April? And even then, if she's impeached and no elections have been held, then appoints the new caretaker PM ?

I think with an impeachment there is no court involved,if she can provide minutes and memos that she was on top of it and ordered her subordinates to investigate the corruption allegations bought up in the censure debate and bought up all the other warnings from other departments and did something about it then she will be ok,unfortunatley she didn't attend one meeting.If she can prove that she knew nothing about the GtG deals that have been proven false dunno how she can do that I am sure the PTP will be able to find a fall guy for her.

If they have good solid evidence against her,both the NACC evidence and her evidence is forwarded to the Senate to vote guilty or not.Once the NACC has decided to impeach her she has to stand down until the Senate decide.Not sure about the appointing a new Pm as the Pm has to be a MP and as she dissolved parliament there isn't any MP,S

your guess is as good as mine as what will happen but I feel the transfer case will get her before the impeachment does

As far as the court goes if corruption is found and she is found guilty of negligence and implicated in turning a blind eye I guess she may well be facing jailtime.

Thanks for the info, just a couple of further questions, with regards to the NACC, I thought they were Investigative only and that any form of impeachment would have to come from the Senate themselves based on the NACC reccomendations?

I would not be surprised if she's found Not guilty, as if Thaksin is as powerful as it's claimed, then paying someone off to "accept the blame" would be all to easy, and all she needs to state that she delegated X, Y or Z in her absence? Step up Mr. X and say yes, I was responsible, but chose to keep the PM out of the loop, he does a few years in Prison, and comes out with a bank balance that could buy a small Caribbean Island.

Thaksin doesn't pay people cash to do stuff like that. He promises them a government job where they can rip off the taxpayer. So you would have to be confident he would still be in power behind the scenes when you got out, or you would get nothing.

"Aerial bombs are about 30 centimetres wide and one metre long. They have an oval shape," an expert said yesterday.

I am glad they have clarified that point. They should also have mentioned that going at them with blow torches or pneumatic drills could be deleterious to the health.

LOL. That was a poor choice of words by Prayuth. He can't blame people for interpreting it to mean he was a Shin family employee. Serves him right for making these insincere pompous comments anyway.

its a farce, not being allowed to have witnesses to testify on your behalf, due process not allowed when reviewing evidence, case taking precedence and jumping the q.

Says a lot about your comment when rich teacher "likes" it. Would not want someone like him agreeing with anything I said.

This is not a court of law. The right to call any witnesses she wants to testify on her behalf will come in her criminal trial in the Supreme Court for Political Office Holders. After indicting her (if they do) and forwarding the case to the Senate to vote on, the NACC has the obligation to initiate criminal proceedings. Whether she wins or loses the impeachment vote in the Senate has no bearing on the criminal trial.

A member of the PM’s defense team, Bancha Poramesanaporn, is preparing to request that the NACC question 4 additional witnesses, including Labor Minister Chalerm Yubamrung, Deputy Commissioner General Worapong Chiwaprecha, Deputy Secretary General of the Prime Minister Tawat Boonfieng, and President of the Federation of Accounting Professions Pichai Chunhawashira.

It is unclear how Chalerm's testimony could have a bearing on this case or what credibility anyone could attach to it anyway. All of this people had nothing to do with the rice pledging scheme and have asked to tell a pack of lies to support a story that has been concocted to pretend that YL make strenuous efforts to root out corruption and prevent financial losses, as well as play for time. I am not surprised that the NACC has not fallen for this BS.

its a farce, not being allowed to have witnesses to testify on your behalf, due process not allowed when reviewing evidence, case taking precedence and jumping the q.

The burden of proof is often associated with the Latin maxim semper necessitas probandi incumbit ei qui agit, the best translation of which seems to be: "the necessity of proof always lies with the person who lays charges.http://www.trans-lex.org/966000

Due process is the legal requirement that the state must respect all of the legal rights that are owed to a person. Due process balances the power of law of the land and protects the individual person from it. When a government harms a person without following the exact course of the law, this constitutes a due-process violation, which offends against the rule of law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Due_process

Impartiality is a principle of justice and the NACC has the burden of proof and must adhere to due process. That means they must; give adequate time to the defence, consider all evidence, consider all cases in a timely and impartial manner, etc. The manner in which the NACC are conducting this investigation and hearing is highly suspicious, especially given the lenience and lack of haste applied to others. They are laying themselves bare to criticism which will severely undermine their foregone verdict. This has happened before with several cases against Thaksin and or his parties leading to division & hatred.

You forget that the NACC is not a court of law. It is an anti-corruption investigative agency that has not power to determine guilt or innocence. The case will be referred to the Senate and then to the Supreme Court for Political Office Holders for criminal proceedings. The Senate's vote is part of a political process where legal due process has no bearing but it will come into its own in the criminal trial for dereliction of duty under Section 157 of the Penal Code. That is where due process will be important and the NACC's evidence may be found wanting. Yingluck will finally get her day in court.

But if the court goes ahead to consider request for the new prime minister, the court itself will tear up the Constitution.

I don't think the petition goes so far as to request the court to make provision for the appointment of an interim prime minister in the event that it rules that the PM and the cabinet have to go. On past performance the court will not address anything that was not specifically asked in the petition and may well dismiss the government and wait for another petition regarding the next step from some one else.

He said if the Constitutional Court rules that the caretaker prime minister is wrong in making the transfer and appointment, and her premiership status is to be terminated, a new prime minister must be appointed under Article 172 and 173.

True but Articles 172 and 173 require a Lower House but YL dissolved that in December.

Article 181 requires the cabinet to stay on in a caretaker status until a new government is formed but Article 180 requires them to all leave office if the PM is forced to leave office. The argument of Bhokin, Chalerm et al seems to claim that the caretaker status of a caretaker cabinet gives it immunity from any constitutional sanctions. However, they are prepared to accept that the PM can be dismissed.

There is no logic to this position. It would make far more sense to claim that the entire caretaker cabinet, including the PM, is immune to any Constitutional Court rulings.

The Admin Courts have already decided that the dismissal was unlawful. It is now up to the Constitutional Court to decide whether the unlawful dismissal was done for personal interests. This could go either way but it looks bad for the PM because there is already no doubt it is already established it was not done for the betterment of government efficiency, as claimed by the govt. This argument was shot down on the basis that Thawil was never consulted as PM advisor and therefore how could his work there have improved govt efficiency? That leaves only the possibility that PM committed an illegal act for no reason at all, since she got no personal (or family) benefit from it. Stranger things have happened in Thailand but I wouldn't give too much for Poo's chances in that one.

Remember the Shinawats are essentially business people (in Yingluck's case exclusively so) and they probably figured moving a family relative to the top police job was no different to when they moved another one to the top military job when Thaksin was Thailand's CEO. Of course neither appointment was justified politically but in the business world they call it fast tracking.

And no one has ever been tracked faster than KY herself.

Yes, it is a Chinese family business that doesn't trust any non-family members to hold important positions. Priewpan had bellyached that he wanted the top police job for some time and cried like a baby when he was passed over for it under the Abhisit regime. His argument was not based on his distinguished track record as a policeman or for cracking down on corrupt but on his seniority which in turn was based on leapfrogging several ranks when Thaksin was PM. Without family help he would never have got anywhere near the police chief's job. He was a complete fabrication and did nothing of note in the job anyway. Thaksin forced Poo to risk everything for this oaf.

Chalerm has already flagged that the caretaker government will ignore Article 180 of the Constitution that would require the cabinet to vacate office en masse in favour of Article 181 which requires ministers to stay on in a caretaker capacity after the dissolution of Parliament until a new government can be formed. He says they would just appoint one of the deputy PMs (him?) to carry out the PM's duties in her place.

The Constitution doesn't specify any ranking between these two articles. I think Chalerm is correct in the event of indictment of the PM by the NACC pending an impeachment vote because that is a suspension of the PM. But this case would involve the permanent dismissal of the PM. You could equally argue on Chalerm's logic that the PM could ignore the court ruling to dismiss her because Article 181 requires her to stay on as a caretaker PM. I think it is very unlikely the court would rule that Article 181 allows the caretaker cabinet to stay on despite the dismissal of the PM. The logic of the "vacation en masse" is that the ministers are appointed by the PM and not elected by the House like the PM. The PM is the only person with authority to recommend to the King that ministers should be removed and needs to take responsibility for her cabinet. Once she is no longer there, even as a result of resignation or death the ministers have no right to remain without her.

Chalerm's argument that the PM must be a member of the Lower House is correct but also counts against him in this case as he wants a deputy PM, who is no longer an MP, to be given the powers of the PM without the possibility of royal endorsement. Thus any orders signed by such a person as PM or acting PM, including a request for a royal decree, could be ruled unlawful.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the Constitutional Court has ruled that Poo and her entire cabinet are no longer ministers and Poo goes but the rest decide to stay on and illegally appoint one of themselves as PM, just because they fill confident they are supported by the Shin family's private army.

The lack of payment for their rice, meaning that they have no money to plant rice, and the drought means that this is the only work available for many.

Would love to see Poo jumping out of the wheel chair, throwing away the iron boot and legging it in the face of an approaching tsunami.

She sprained her ankle about 3 weeks ago and should be completely recovered by now but looks as if she has a withered foot or polio. What a pathetic shamstress!