Eric Loh

The elected MPs have been certified by EC and given their certifications on June 24. House speaker appointment has been published in Royal Gazette. Parliament was officially opened by the King. First session has convened to elect the PM. The Parliament session has began with the newly elected MPs. The caretaker PM will seat in as the interim PM until a new PM is elected.

If the speech repeats the previous HM’s benevolence on criticism, it will change the dynamics on the senates recalcitrance.

IMO if the legal challenges are adjudicated that it was unconstitution, the Presiding Officer can expell the offenders (Parliamentary Rule) and perhaps even from voting. From my standpoint, that will narrow down the senates votes and give the advantage to Pita. In the sphere of public opinion, it will discredit the senates more than they already have. Hope and prayers all we got.

A member of the Constitution Drafting Assembly, Sawet Thinnakul has handed a letter to the NACC yesterday seeking legal action against MPs and senators who didn’t allow Pita to stand for denomination on the 19 July. He want legal action taken against those who opposed Pita’s renominating quoting Parliamentary Rule No. 41. Payback hopefully. https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40029653

If the Court ruled that the rejection of Pita;s renomination is constitutional, then it follows that those who voted against Pita have committed an unlawful act and should be suspended or even banned from politics. I hope the MFP's legal team will push forward this case after court's verdict. Payback time.

Well give him credit for hoping for a peaceful transition and not saying that the election was stolen.

Not related events. Nomination was unconstitutional as Parliamentary motion can't be repeated. Court ordered him to suspend from duty as an elected member of the House of Representative.

That will depend on the amendment. 2 necessary amendments. First the amendment on Senator Selection Committee and to change the Election Commission role in selecting the 200 senators. Since the National Council for Peace and Order has been dissolved, a new Selection Committee has to be appointed and royally endorsed. I think the EC's role can be an executive decision by the new PM. It is also paramount that MFP continue to support this amendments even if they are not part of the government.

A difficult decision and PTP will exhaust all negotiations with MPs and senators before making a conclusion with the coalition parties tomorrow. The coalition will issue a joint announcement. All done in a amicable and transparent process. Pita understand the legal perils for him, executives and the party which likely yo be banned and dissolved. If PTP was to turn their back on MFP, there will be some discontent with their supporters but their base are still loyal. Red Shirts are not the base and they are a subdued force. Stay as an opposition block in Parliament is not a political solution when you have the chance of forming the government. A non functioning legislature body is not a political solution. The economy will be disastrous and no sensible politicians will want that. PTP have quite similar policies as MFP and will try implement them. They have 4 years to prove to the voters that they are on the same page as MFP in terms of reforms.

Are you blaming the possibility of the failed MFP coalition on PTP and not the junta for the controversial senate appointees? You seem diverting the blame away from the junta.

Got to hate that man but got to also say what he did was a masterstoke with the appointed senators. The 5 years senates appointment fall nicely within the legal framework of the election and the leverage it has on the formation of the new government. Dismantling this evil legacy will be harder if PTP was to form a new coalition with the junta and ally parties. The only upside is that the next senators will be appointed by a new body and not by Prayut and his croonies.

Seem all parties eager to break the impasse and have a positive outcome on Thursday. Divine intervention

Reading the tea leaves, the non invite snub by the pro-democracy coalition seem to indicate that PTP is confident of their chances this Thursday. The junta parties may not join the coalition but their MPs may break ranks. Lots of pressure on lawmakers to conclude this impasse for a new government on the eve of the King’s birthday and his speech. Also pressures from business leaders for a speedy formation of the new government in current economic slump. Most BJT leaders are former TRT under Thaksin and will provide a good communication channel for backroom deals. Shin is an elite family and have ties with some senators and military leaders. Prawit has been conciliatory towards the continuing cycle of coups. He can influence some senators if there is something for him. I till think the pro-democracy coalition will be intact and new government under PTP by Thursday.

No it will not be extended. They passed the provisional constitution for senators to only serve one term and can't be re-appointed or re-elected,

Don’t think MFP was preparing to win. I am sure that were surprised with the election outcome. Lots of lesson learnt which will served them well in the next election.

Newin is the founder and shadow leader of BJT just like Thaksin is to PTP. Both hold key decision making for their parties. Anutin was a former TRT MP and had good relationship with Thaksin. If PTP nominate Sretha and stay faithful with the coalition, it will mean that there are back room deals done with BJT and some senators to back their nomination next Thursday. Perhaps go easy on the cannabis regulations which is the flagship policy of BJT. If PTP not successful with their back room dealings, they will invite BJT and CTP to the coalition. I think the first situation is more likely as the Shin family has cultivated strong influences and ties with the elites and military.

On the bright side, Trump can still run in 2028 with more grievances and grifting.

I tend to think that political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak had this quite right when he told AFP that the prospect of a military presence in the new government would spark a backlash in a country that is no stranger to political unrest. I will add that the backlash will also manifest in the next election. That will probably be a big deterrent for Phue Thai to consider PPRP or UTN and may even harbour any idea to form a coalition without MFP. I think they will try to bring in the 2 civilian parties in the form of CTP and BJT into the coalition which will be enough to secure the PM position and form the next government. CTP will be the easier target as they have the history of switching allegiance. THeir party leader Vorawut Silp-archa has said that they are willing to form a coalition with any party that wins the next election. Anutin may have said that he will not be involved in a coalition that has MFP but he also said that he will not be join a minority government. In any case, he is not the leader of BJT, The party shadow leader Newin Chidchop hold the power and he had said that there are no permanent friends or foes in Thai politics while trying to mend ties with Thaksin. Another factor is that Thaksin actually has friends in the military that may influence the 1/3 senators that are from military and police. He has pivoted away from his tough stand against the military after the brutal encounters and consequences with the military. Yingluck stayed away from key military appointments and even had Prayut moved up to become the army chief during her tenure. I think there is a real good chance that next Thursday, we may see a new government under PTP.

Clip on Nation showing senators leaving the building. K Pita voting not looking good.

I see that as a future sticky point. The provisional constitution for senate appointment will have to be amended for technical and legal reasons. Some of the reasons are that the key appointment entity which was the NCPO had been dissolved besides the expiration tenure of all appointed senators. The amendment has to be accepted by the House and 1/3 senate and need to be completed before next May. If the next government is to be PTP and the junta parties, there is little chance that they have the support from both houses to make radical amendment like a fully elected upper house. In the respect, we can forget about a unicameral amendment proposition.

My personal opinion is that the military has become too powerful in the last 2 decades for many reasons that can't be discussed. They are responsible for the skewed constitution and appointment of unelected and unaccountable agencies that do the bidding for them. The military is like a defacto government abetted by the elites and neo conservatives. There are some recent attempts to rein them in and reduce their political clout. I hope the next governments can muster support to bring the military under the control of the elected civilian government.

The higher power is also concern that spilled over violent disorder may result in re-setting the constitutional political landscape of Thailand. They may be blamed for being the invisible hand tipping the scale. I am sure there are pressure on the senates to step back but how much.

Still with CISF. Double salary.

I think you meant to post this image.

Curious why you pasted the photo of K Sudarat Keyuraphan, recently retired leader of Thai Sang Thai Party, coalition partner of MFP.