LeamchabangLarry

21 minutes ago, Chazar said:

Singapore  tested and traced  thoroughly and were doing  really well but has now  seen a  spike due to migrant workers who share  rooms (12 to a  room) in dorms with shared bathrooms

agreed on Singapore.  Their process driven robotic (just don't ask them to innovate) ways underscores their thus far successful handling of this 

9 minutes ago, JDGRUEN said:

Numbers High or Low Thailand similar to other countries is decimating the country's economy over 32 dead out of 69 million population.

 

In the first week of February 2010, the Thailand Department of Epidemiology announced the Second Wave of the H1N1 (Swine Flu) outbreak. From May 3rd. 2009 to 10 March 2010 (about 9 months).

The accumulated number of confirmed H1N1 flu patients in the second wave totaled 35,446 persons. The number of deaths was 208 persons.
 
Does anyone who was in Thailand in 2009 - 2010 even remember this what was classed as a severe epidemic? 

 

Remember the drastic H1N1 control measures? Well - there weren't any.

 

The 2nd wave played out with a vaccine that finally came available.

 

Today's Covid-19 figures (since Jan 2020) - a little over 3 months of epidemic. 2473 total confirmed Covid-19 cases, total deaths to date is 33. 

Extrapolating the 33 Covid-19 Deaths out to 9 months even at the current number gives a total of an estimated 99 deaths (likely it would be about 79 deaths due to an expected declining rate.

 

79 to 99 Covid-19 deaths in Thailand extrapolated over 9 months versus H1N1 208 Deaths 2009 - 2010 in Thailand over nine months (for just the second wave of H1N1. 

 

No drastic measures were taken in over 2 years of the first and second Waves of H1N1 combined...

Yet the Thai Country and Thai Economy survived. 

As far as I understand, H1N1 didn't transmit asymptomatically.  There is a huge difference with this beast

3 minutes ago, totally thaied up said:

If we got numbers coming out like NY, it would be splashed all over social media. With this focused based testing they are doing now, your not going to get high numbers unless you test higher numbers.

 

As other posters mentioned, I would love to know Thailand's magic formula in staving off a pandemic. We had hundreds of thousands of Chinese from hot spots let in and so far to date, we are up their with the numbers of being world beaters in repressing this outbreak. In reality I hope it is true but how certain can we be. 

I had thought we were done for when the Thonglor cases, Boxing Stadium, and phi noi cases all happened within a week of each other.

This was after shamelessly letting in high 6 figures of chinese people up until the last possible moment.

It has been fairly quiet since then and we did not go an an asymptotic upwards slope of infections/death like other countries.  It is almost mid-April.  We should have seen it by now but no one can be certain.

3 minutes ago, Yadon Toploy said:

Better than being stuck up Prayuth's ringpiece lol.

 

 

they all can go the the same special place

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It has been posted regionally but the last I heard it was not a national ban but based on province. Are you saying that the policy is now national? 

don't understand at all this genius move to make it harder to stay indoors...

8 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Jonathan Head

lol

...Taksin's mouthpiece  

2 minutes ago, Guderian said:

Whether you believe the numbers or not, at least they’re consistently low. The authorities also seem to know where most of the new cases originated, which is comforting.

 

I wish the government would tell us, though, what their criterion is for relaxing the restrictions. Obviously, there won’t be any relaxation until Songkran is over, but it would be nice to know what they’re aiming at in the medium term. Consistently less than fifty new cases a day seems to be the most common criterion being bandied around by other countries, but the CCSA are reportedly unhappy with the latest numbers and are talking about tightening restrictions.

 

I don't really believe the numbers either. 

They seem to be doing the right things now with the imports/returnees after the phi noi fiasco in early March.  

7 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Also more hospitals in BKK.

not enough to handle 10,000 concurrent ICU stays

34 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

If ICU beds aren't running at capacity, then a 10% increase in business might still be within their normal capacity. I wouldn't assume that they were running at 100% full prior to this. 

 

I still say that a 10-12% increase would not be "visually obvious and impossible to paper over." I think that kind of fluctuation happens all the time and we don't see it. I get that you and others are convinced you would (and, so I'm going to stop trying to make the opposite point). I just don't think we would. 

we are not talking about standard deviations here...

we are talking triple digits in Europe and US

9 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

...and, we should all be magically aware of it. I don't think I did a good job of getting my point across. 

 

If you ask me: Did 10k, 20, 30k, 40k, or 50k people die in Thailand last month? I simply don't know and neither do you or any of the other posters on here. We don't. 

 

If an extra 5k people died in the country over the last four weeks, that represents only a 10% bump in business as usual. Since the beginning of the year, an extra 15k people could have died with only a 10% increase in deaths. So, basically the same number of raw deaths that have been reported in Italy could have happened here with about a 12% jump in the Thai death rate. Why, why, why do you think that if deaths in this country increased by 10-12% you and I would have to see it? Why?

Ok, let's take the middle ground of your number.

Do we agree that Bangkok is more concentrated than any 5 other provinces put together?

Let's assume 50% happened in Bangkok given population density, foreign visitors, and mass transportation.

I think we would VISIBLY see 15k people dying in Bangkok over the course of 2-3 weeks, coming out of Bangkok hospitals, if not on social media.  Additionally, put all the Bangkok hospitals together and there is not enough capacity for 15,000 ICU patients.

.... just to stay on your point

15 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I get your incredulity at our worry. But, I think you and some others are making an error when you assume that it would be unavoidably obvious and not able to be hidden if an extra 5-10k people were dying each month in Thailand. But, consider that, on average, 48k people die in Thailand every month. How many of those did you see? If 48k turned into 58k, why do you somehow believe that we would all develop magical powers to see all those deaths?

 

I got back to Thailand at the first of Feb. So, was here all that month as well as March...and, now into April. So, statistically about 100k people would have died of all various causes in Thailand while I've been here. I directly know of two people who died of old age. I've seen the reports on the news about the handful who have died from C-19. Other than that, I'm oblivious to all the thousands of other deaths and so are you. I have no idea if there was a 10-20% bump in the monthly average number of deaths. That data is not being made available and none of us has magically become omniscient. Not me. Not you. Stop thinking you'd see all those deaths simply because it's a big number. 10-20k sounds like a lot of people dying. But, spread that out over a few weeks in a country of 70 million and you simply: do. not. see. them. You don't.

Like I said, I would be saying the same thing as you and some others here if it were Early March.

We had been shamelessly letting in Chinese Mainlanders until March at a rate of 9.5 million a year.  It should have blown up and spectacularly by now.

Monitor social media and the signals from individuals.  These include those that work at hospitals, walking by hospitals, going into hospitals, driving by hospitals, and those that live by hospitals.

11 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Ok then. That's great. How did the icu's look when you were driving by? Busier than usual?

Parking lots about 25% full and Samitivej was a ghost town inside.

We would be hearing about it on social media if the ICUs were bursting at the seams

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

How do you know? Remember this has been declared a state of emergency. The junta govt has censorship control of the media.

 

I don't know. 

I can only report on what I see.

I have driven by Bumrungrad, Samitivej, Phaya Thai 2, BNH, Thainakarin, and a couple others.

The government is not censoring my eyeballs

On 4/6/2020 at 6:03 AM, gunderhill said:

On 4/6/2020 at 4:13 AM, JimmyTheMook said:

RIP 

 

anyone who thinks this thing did not come from a biowarfare lab in China better wake up - kills too fast and too efficiently. 

STOP SPREADING  <deleted>

Now I'm not saying one way or another if this is just a conspiracy or not, but this "Documentary" makes some pretty specific points:

A video I found on Youtube today from The Epoch Times:  

5 minutes ago, Greg O said:

Thanks Richard for all the effort , just realized that I'm late on my 90 day....no need to worry at this point ..

assuming they make 'grandfathered time' retroactive to when they officially decide to do this

1 hour ago, rumak said:

Thais will stay home when sick, not run to the hospital unless very sick.

This has not been my experience.

My experience is, "Don't get rain on your head or you'll get sick."

and

Head to the hospital at every small little sign of possible sickness...  "It is but only 20 baht"

4 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

 

And you used your already established username/email and PW? Or did you re-register?

 

And after this you were able to successfully file a report usig the mobile app?

I had already established a username/email and did not re-register.

Yes I was able to successfully file the report, but the geniuses decided to send me an email a couple days later telling me I was 'Not Approved'

1 hour ago, MOOPS said:

Trying to register,hit submit,get the following message," service error",   What does that mean ?

I had this problem on the Android App after having had the app on my phone for 6 months.

I updated the app according to the playstore updates, still the same problem...

I then uninstalled it and installed again and that error stopped.