iphad

A strong USD should boost Thailand exports to the US ..... But a strong Junta promoting anti-American rhetoric and anti-democratic agenda will likely stand in the way of more trade, maybe even lose trade. Meanwhile as Thailand increases exports to China, the yuan has lost about 3.5% against the USD in the last 12 months. Great timing Junta.

The Yuan is pegged to the US dollar...so the Yuan has remained strong in currency exchange...but the real indicator ( as opposed to the financial experts in the western press portray China's economy as hurting ) is China has recently reported a record trade surplus for January.

"China's exports fell 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped by 19.9 percent, both missing expectations by a wide margin, and resulting in a record monthly trade surplus of $60 billion." http://www.cnbc.com/id/102406905

God forbid..an economy has a trade surplus..and that's a bad thing?

So the US has record trade deficit & the economy is good..but China has 60 billion $US in a monthly trade surplus & they are slumping.

who cares if exports are reduced by 3.3 % if imports are reduced by 19.9 % & there is a record trade surplus.

But if one believes that QE by printing money is good for economic growth then yeah I could see how one would think China is hurting as an economic super power.

These financial experts in the western press are experts in financial manure.

Only on TV that the general is so wrong & the majority of TV posters are so correct...

I didn't do a headcount and I'd be guessing that probably many of the posters were the same people predicting Thailand's economic demise after the military coup...

meanwhile Thailand is stable & staying strong to most of the western currencies.

These days, everybody is mesmerized by fluctuating currency rates. In the longer run, Asian currencies will gain against "Old World Currencies". Period. Further discussion about the subject are unnecessary.

No more discussion necessary. But you're wrong. Asia is corrupt. China is corrupt and communist. Its economy is on the brink. Its banking including the notorious Shadow Banking isn't transparent. It no longer has really cheap labor and even the US is repatriating some manufacturing because robots are cheaper than cheap people. The US can now make clothing without human intervention. It doesn't pay to ship cotton to China, pay labor and ship the finished product back when robots work cheap. One of the things that started the China manufacturing boom was clothing. Another was electronics and that manufacturing is getting more automated.

China's economy is in big trouble. Watch them start to print money in the next year just as the Euro will do. Much of China's manufacturing and GDP has been due to the building of ghost cities. They are due for a real estate bust.

For a country to prosper, it has to be able to produce new wealth. That would be like mining iron ore and turning into steel. The steel is new wealth. More new wealth would be turning that steel into a new car or a refrigerator. China doesn't have all of the pieces to do that. They can't grow the cotton to feed their clothing manufacturing and they don't have the oil to make the synthetics. The raw materials have to be imported. Then they add value by making things from those resources, but they only get paid for cheap labor. The finished product belongs to Nike who uses that cheap labor and moves the product to where they get the high price. China doesn't win that one. That same thing happens with most of what China makes. China makes an IPhone with cheap labor and Apple sells it for a fortune. Apple makes the money.

Asia is growing & prospering..

China grows more cotton than any other country in the world...

China has access to oil & gas ...from Russia.

China owns almost all of the port facilities in Australia..Vancouver in Canada & buying up properties all over the world...they even bought the Chase Manhattan building in NY that has the largest underground vault in the world & a underground tunnel to the US Fed across the street.

China has surplus foreign reserves & still buying gold every month.

China is opening up yuan swap facilities in every almost every country.

China is in the process of building a rapid train service across Asia & Europe from Shanghai to Spain Via Germany.

So I doubt very much China will be doing a QE.

Look to China buying up farms in the the EU now that the Euro is in retreat.

China's yuan is pegged to the US dollar...if the US continues with QE4 ...China might have to cut their losses & unpeg to the US dollar & follow Switzerland's lead to unpeg from the Euro.

I'd bet my dollars on China...

Sometimes, what I read in the Press doesn't seem to be in keeping with the situation on the ground. For example, some thinktanks are worried that if Greece exits the Eurozone and then prospers, this will lead to other countries to vote for populist parties. But they don't seem to take into account the facts on the ground. Corruption is endemic in Greece. Tax evasion is a national pastime and nepotism is a way of life. Greece prosper? Certainly not on its own. The country has become a nation of parasites who love the high life as long as someone else is paying for it.

So they'll go looking for another big lender and maybe turn to Russia. But Putin has enough on his plate already with his little adventure in Ukraine. Their own financial market has already been given junk status so they're hardly in a position to finance a whole new country especially since they're unlikely to be repaid when the debt matures.

Also, Greece joined NATO in 1952 and any turn towards the Russians will get them booted out of that too. That would mean the US being given their cards to quit Souda Bay, Crete naval base which is a nice little earner for them. That certainly won't win them any friends on the other side of the Atlantic.

Maybe the Russians will step in. But Greece should bear in mind that once in, they won't take kindly to being told to quit if future relations go pear-shaped as they surely will.

Edit: corrected spelling mistake.

You must be Greek to know "what the facts on the ground are"...you definitely aren't Russian.

I am always suspicious when I read or see any media & as I didn't know the Sunday Times, I did a little research & see it is owned by Rupert Murdoch....... so my inclination is to only believe part of the story.

My initial opinion...is that there is a concerted strategy by the EU elite is to cause the Syriza (Radical Left Coalition) which is expected to be the leading party in the elections that was held in Greece) some bad press in advance of the election yesterday.

I'm not saying this is part of the bad press...since it was printed on the day of the election....but maybe causing a bank run when there wasn't really one...further damaging Greece's problems.

Could be people are worried of the Euro falling in value more after QE was announced this past week in Europe so they are taking what money they have left & gambling it might keep it's value in US dollars or some other currency.

Too early yet to know the real truth...

but I do support Greece digging there way out of their economic abyss with a new Greek government that promises more independence from the EU...but as usual, easy for a new government wanting to get elected to promise change then reverts back to supporting the status quo.

I guess what I'm saying is I only really know that I don't know & I don't believe everything that I read but probably somewhat influenced by it ...anything is possible.

No, what people are worried about is Greece reneging on their promises to pay back the billions of Euros they borrowed from other countries.

ok Diplo thxs for clearing that up...so the people are making a run to the banks so they can send the money directly to the IMF & the ECB.

I am always suspicious when I read or see any media & as I didn't know the Sunday Times, I did a little research & see it is owned by Rupert Murdoch....... so my inclination is to only believe part of the story.

My initial opinion...is that there is a concerted strategy by the EU elite is to cause the Syriza (Radical Left Coalition) which is expected to be the leading party in the elections that was held in Greece) some bad press in advance of the election yesterday.

I'm not saying this is part of the bad press...since it was printed on the day of the election....but maybe causing a bank run when there wasn't really one...further damaging Greece's problems.

Could be people are worried of the Euro falling in value more after QE was announced this past week in Europe so they are taking what money they have left & gambling it might keep it's value in US dollars or some other currency.

Too early yet to know the real truth...

but I do support Greece digging there way out of their economic abyss with a new Greek government that promises more independence from the EU...but as usual, easy for a new government wanting to get elected to promise change then reverts back to supporting the status quo.

I guess what I'm saying is I only really know that I don't know & I don't believe everything that I read but probably somewhat influenced by it ...anything is possible.

It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

Yet it worked in the US but you kind of glossed over that !

I would argue that ..that yes QE appears to be working as the US dollar rises & rise of the stock market but it is an illusion of prosperity with constant market manipulations & lying government stats.

Wall St. is doing great..Main street not so great.

What the US has been very successful at is destroying countries militarily & economically.

One it it's main successes ( because the US petro dollar was/is the the world's reserve currency from after WW2 & once removed from the gold standard under Nixon it is a fiat currency based on trade in US dollars) was to counter the growing strong Euro that was replacing the dollar as the main word's currency.

The US petro dollar was fast losing value so the US government had to weaken the Euro..not destroy it because it needed trade & to subordinate Europe so the dollar could regain it's inflated strength.The Euro was backed by a solid European economy. The combined EU economy (28 member countries) was then and is still today the world’s strongest economy about US$18 1/2 trillion as compared to about 17 1/2 trillion in the US

Europe has become screwed...not by it's people..not by Greece,Italy Spain or France...but by the unelected leaders of the EU & the European banks that have become puppets to the US's foreign policy.

So as the previous poster said..it is a Ponzi scheme...doomed to fail..and along with it any country that has aligned with the US's economic policy of bankism..not capitalism!

LOL...so you're saying the EU problems, like everything else in the world has been orchestrated by those evil Americans? I don't know if you are truly that dumb, or have just been sucked too deeply into the world of the fringe websites you spend half your time reading. Im not American by the way, before you numb skulls say it...."you must be a yank"...I'm also not European.

Doesn't it occur to you conspiracy theory nut jobs that the US would love a strong Europe? And that Europe's problems stem from the stupidity of the way Europe was glued together, largely led by Germany and France, with zero consideration of fiscal and political differences? And to an extent it is exactly the excesses and dishonesty and inefficiencies of countries like Greece, France and Spain that have indeed dragged down the whole, finding the attractiveness of suddenly lower interest rates fatally irresistible, but only been permitted to do so by the willful blindness of the collective and their unelected and arrogant bureaucrats, and the gullibility of bond buyers. I hope Europe can recover, but it will take a lot of time and pain.

QE in Europe isn't some hyper inflationary threat designed to destroy its middle classes. It is the only monetary tool, as opposed to reform, they have to restore their shrinking balance sheet...in other words has the potential to fight deflation as opposed to cause much inflation. The end result in my view will obviously be an even weaker currency, which will help European industry, but unfortunately possibly even lower inflation, for reasons that will be beyond any reader of these forums, so i wont explain why.

In the mean time, if you happen to be European and bleating on about your weak currency, then you only have yourselves to blame if you didn't sell your EURs and buy USD etc. In the end i expect Europe will recover, it has some fantastic industry, good education systems and beautiful countries, certainly infinitely superior to anything in Thailand. What Europe needs is massive reform, i hope that will happen.

I'm not European either...

but you basically are saying that deflation is the problem..but no one goes to a store & says.."damm apples went down in price today..they need to go higher..or my electricity price went down..I need higher electricity rates!"

The reality is ..prices are higher in the stores...it's the banks that need to cover their derivative shorts & bad loans so they plant in everyone's minds that deflation is causing the problems.

If you believe that QE is helping the US & it will help the EU..you are entitled to your opinion ..but I don't agree.

The EU had a strong economy...now it's following with QE of their own..it's not a tool to help the economy..it's a tool to con the working people to pay for a corrupt banking system that are "too big to fail".

It is called collusion...it is a worldwide problem...governments printing gobs of fiat currency trying to make up for the lack of employment and commerce...Japan has printed more than they can ever justify...the US has stopped for the moment...and now Europe will take up the banner...the printing of money with no true economy to justify the printing...is a form of Ponzi scheme and will end badly with all fiat (paper) currencies in a serious down turn...as a worldwide recession...if not depression...takes its toll on the financial instruments... stocks, bonds, and followed by governments stealing whatever wealth they can from the public to stay afloat...

The poop could hit the fan as early as this year...

Yet it worked in the US but you kind of glossed over that !

I would argue that ..that yes QE appears to be working as the US dollar rises & rise of the stock market but it is an illusion of prosperity with constant market manipulations & lying government stats.

Wall St. is doing great..Main street not so great.

What the US has been very successful at is destroying countries militarily & economically.

One it it's main successes ( because the US petro dollar was/is the the world's reserve currency from after WW2 & once removed from the gold standard under Nixon it is a fiat currency based on trade in US dollars) was to counter the growing strong Euro that was replacing the dollar as the main word's currency.

The US petro dollar was fast losing value so the US government had to weaken the Euro..not destroy it because it needed trade & to subordinate Europe so the dollar could regain it's inflated strength.The Euro was backed by a solid European economy. The combined EU economy (28 member countries) was then and is still today the world’s strongest economy about US$18 1/2 trillion as compared to about 17 1/2 trillion in the US

Europe has become screwed...not by it's people..not by Greece,Italy Spain or France...but by the unelected leaders of the EU & the European banks that have become puppets to the US's foreign policy.

So as the previous poster said..it is a Ponzi scheme...doomed to fail..and along with it any country that has aligned with the US's economic policy of bankism..not capitalism!

Rather simplistic & ignorant view & I especially liked the part of the "Euro is not for bulls**t people with bulls**t governments.

A big part of Greece's problem was joining the Euro in the 1st place & high military expenditures with their perceived threat with Turkey and the corruption that went along with those deals encouraged mainly from Germany.

Because Greece is tied to the Euro they can't devalue their currency to make their exports more attractive & also tied the the EU's rules & regulations.

Greece has only a population of around 11 million so once the government got into debt..there is almost no way out..It is said it's going to take 2 generations to get rid of the existing debt.

The EU governments are similar to most other western countries..they are for bailing out the bankers at the expense of it's people...

The EU in my opinion is like a dysfunctional family...maybe a good idea at the time of formation...but now will probably disintegrate over time to their own independent economies & currencies.

Euro is already devaluing big time. Russia had to devalue even more, about 50 percent and it is not helping them at all. Inflation already 10 percent and their central bank interest rate is a killer, 17 percent. According to your logic Russia should be booming! It does not work like that. Russians got maybe one year left before the economy collapses unless the price of oil suddenly goes back to 100 dollars.

Greek government btw has their debts signed under English law in London and using euro as currency because nobody trust the Greek justice system. London or New York are pretty common 3rd parties in government bond deals with smaller countries, especially with crisis countries. Even if the Greeks issued their new, rapidly devaluing currency, they would be pretty soon unable to pay anything because the debts are in euros. If they defaulted, IMF black suits would be stepping in with emergency loans and de facto new government. Those boys and girls do not <deleted> around, they will get their money back. Even if it means really bad times for Greeks.

Plus the fact their new currency would bring total, high inflation chaos to Greece similar to Weimar Germany. It would worsen their problems big time. Greeks themselves would not trust their own currency at all and soon they would invest all their savings to gold, dollars, euros.

re. Greece... I never said Greece would leave the Euro...I stated it was a mistake that they joined..you were suggesting they should be kicked out...because they are bulls**t as a government & as a people.

I don't expect much will change within Greece even with a new anti austerity government projected to be elected...probably negotiations & Greece's debt maybe reduced or more Euro's injected.

re. Russia...you have been drinking too much kool-aid from the western press..Russia has foreign reserves * they have & continue to buy gold..their debt is manageable.

Even though oil prices have shrunk..& the Rouble to the US dollar has gone up...it's roughly the same exchange with roubles to oil as it was before.

Don't forget people in Russia spend roubles..not dollars..so anything made in Russia is the same cost..yes they are probably not buying imported goods from Europe or traveling outside the country like they did before but Russians are resilient people they know how to survive.

Russia became complacent with all the oil/gas revenues rolling in so it was easier to buy from the west..than from developing from within..now they have started on that process.

Russia is almost joined to the hip with China & making trade deals all over the east..building pipelines...developing trade..not with Europe though..but then Europe has no growth..it's with China & India.

Russia has already left the US petro dollar...so the exchange rate just means Russia can buy up cheap roubles...for their own economy with their overvalued US dollar reserves.

Anyone that underestimates Putin or Russia is a fool.

??? How do you know??? It can really be the opposite, Greece out and Euro lower.

eurozoners are quite happy actually with euro with clear majority wanting to keep it in almost every country

??? Oh really??? Actually many people is just tired of this sh*t euro currency and want their old currency back. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body and is killing us.

For Southern Europeans it brought a stable currency with much lower interest rates. Italy and Spain both hit double digit interest rates in the 90's and high inflation.

I pass on this, I don't have time to show you it means nothing.

Kicking them out? Who the <deleted>*k are you to speak like that? There's people and children dying there because of the stupid austerity imposed by the euro bureaucrats.

So, to sum up, you wrote loads of BS.

Greeks behave like little spoiled children with no responsilibity and want us to bail them out time after time! Maybe it is time to show them the door. Euro is not for bullshit people with bullshit governments. Good luck trying to convince foreign creditors to "trust' Greeks this time...

Rather simplistic & ignorant view & I especially liked the part of the "Euro is not for bulls**t people with bulls**t governments.

A big part of Greece's problem was joining the Euro in the 1st place & high military expenditures with their perceived threat with Turkey and the corruption that went along with those deals encouraged mainly from Germany.

Because Greece is tied to the Euro they can't devalue their currency to make their exports more attractive & also tied the the EU's rules & regulations.

Greece has only a population of around 11 million so once the government got into debt..there is almost no way out..It is said it's going to take 2 generations to get rid of the existing debt.

The EU governments are similar to most other western countries..they are for bailing out the bankers at the expense of it's people...

The EU in my opinion is like a dysfunctional family...maybe a good idea at the time of formation...but now will probably disintegrate over time to their own independent economies & currencies.

I expect Germany to leave the Euro to join the BRIC before Greece gets kicked out.

The EU by implementing "quantitative easing" is basically playing it's last card...instead of cutting debt & spending by the European countries..they will print money to cover the debt.Lots of money.

A trillion Euros will be created by September next year, probably more.

"The European Central Bank took the ultimate policy leap on Thursday, launching a government bond-buying program which will pump hundreds of billions in new money into a sagging euro zone economy.
The ECB said it would purchase sovereign debt from this March until the end of September 2016, despite opposition from Germany's Bundesbank and concerns in Berlin that it could allow spendthrift countries to slacken economic reforms." http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/22/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN0KU2ST20150122

How do I come up with my conclusions? @manarak...it's called basic economics 101...

Look at Japan...how are they doing with Quantitative easing...

The US can get away with it for now...and they have...but even that bubble will burst some day.

But in the US there is optimism that quantitative easing has stopped...but it won't..it can't.....The Fed will announce QE4...maybe under a new name.

If the billions of Euros were spent wisely...building infrastructure ,improving trade connections..whatever..that would be beneficial...creating money to pay off debt is economic suicide.

I applaud people's optimism...it's better than being depressed...

but unfortunately..Reality is Reality...you can play the game of economics...but eventually the cards fall down.

Unfortunately for the Euro..it's in a period of downturn...& worst case scenario ..is at the end!

It's not just one reason...

I think it's too simplistic to blame the "lazy " Greeks but does make for a good argument around the table over a couple beers .....if one knows nothing of world politics & economics.

I would argue that the problems to the Euro are self induced..and now will see mass exit of the currency to US dollars or maybe even the Thai baht...further diminishing it's conversion value.

Now that the EU has introduced "quantitative easing" there is no way out.Fracturing within the European community will escalate.

Germany will be unhappy with the quantitative easing EU policy.

Greece this weekend will probably elect a anti austerity government that will probably default on it's EU loans.

The Swiss this past week unpegged their currency to the Euro.

The European banks are in serious problems & when one fails...many will go down together.

Sanctions against Russia following the foreign policy of the US was probably the nail on the head..and in return Russia put in place their own sanctions.

Supporting the "Nazis" fascist government in Ukraine in a coup last year against it's trade partnership with Russia was/is a colossal mistake.

It's almost laughable...if it wasn't so devastating to the population.

The Greek situation will destroy the EU on the fiscal side.

The Swiss unpegging will destroy the EU on the currency side.

The sanctions against Russia will destroy the EU on the economic side.

The "quantitative easing" will destroy the EU on the monetary side with German opposition...& maybe abandoning the EU altogether.

The war in the Ukraine will destroy the EU on the energy side.

So yeah the Thai economy & Thai baht look quite stable to me compared to the Euro.

Total nonsense!

The Swiss unpegging has zero consequences on the EUR.

European banks don't have serious problems.

The energy side... did you have a look at the oil price?

Also, Germany, although opposing QE by principle, will be very pleased with a fall of the EUR which will boost its non-EU industrial exports.

The Swiss unpegging shows their lack of support and/or confidence in the Euro..also the Swiss government were holding at least half a trillion Euros ..They and everyone will be escaping the Euro by buying ...probably gold or US dollars.

European banks..are in serious problems..they are all tied together so when the crash comes...many will go down.

yes oil price is low but the issue to the EU is Russia stopping the South Stream pipeline & sending the gas to Turkey & Europe can pick up what they need at the Greek border..The pipeline through the Ukraine will be stopped.

Yes the Germans will be happy with the fall of the Euro..as they are happy with the elimination of trade with Russia.

Everyone loves higher prices,higher unemployment,higher uncertainty..oh they love riots in the streets too.

I wouldn't say total nonsense...maybe some of it is...but this is thaivisa afterall

I dont understand world economics, it makes no sense! The yanks owe so much money that they cannot fit it on the computer screen and just keep making more! As I understand it, from my history at school, that is what caused the 'great depression'?

Why do they continue to have such a control over world economics, when as I see it, China is really the leading country economically speaking? They are

all concerned about 7.4% growth rate in China, but that is about twice any other country at the moment.

Have a look here in Thailand, if they are not in economic s...t then I dont know what would constitute a country in recession?

Australia is also in trouble due to poor economic management after 7 years of mismanagement.

If I am off the makr, can someone try and explain it to me in layman's terms, as I have run out of hair to scratch.

obviously you know nothing about the United States. Have you ever been there?

actually mogo51 in my opinion does have a grasp of the US economic policy..he stated the US owes alot of money and has been printing money (in the billions)....this is true and since he attributed his knowledge of the Great Depression from what he learned in school...there are similarities of what is happening today that appear to be leading to another financial crash this year.

As to the "Great Depression" that is simply explained for causes as

deflation in asset and commodity prices,

dramatic drops in demand and credit,

disruption of trade,

ultimately resulting in widespread unemployment and poverty.

What part of mogo51" post led you to think he knows nothing of the US?

The best way to make 4 million in Thailand ...is to invest 8 million. ...meaning the OP made the right decision not to invest yet in a condo..could be a good idea..depends on knowing the market..and buying a good deal..

I expect a financial crash this year...so don't put your money in banks..buy gold & silver and / or farmland somewhere.

Am I missing something ?

How can he buy farm land in Thailand?

He is not a Thai

He is a tourist

I said somewhere..meaning not Thailand!

The best way to make 4 million in Thailand ...is to invest 8 million. ...meaning the OP made the right decision not to invest yet in a condo..could be a good idea..depends on knowing the market..and buying a good deal..

I expect a financial crash this year...so don't put your money in banks..buy gold & silver and / or farmland somewhere.

Against the world currencies, only the US and China have maintained higher exchange rates to the baht. About 20% of Thai exports goes to these two countries in about equal portions.

China's short-term economy remains unpredictable given the lack of transparency of the Politburo, but one can expect more Chinese currency manipulations to maintain a high foreign exchange rate for the yuan. However, Chinese efforts to successivelly inflate the yuan value throughout 2015 will be severly tested and I expect some devaluation to occur by mid-year.

The US provides Thailand with the greatest export stability for 2015. However, the Thai military-led government seems to be engaging in anti-American /anti-democratic / anti-capitalistic rhetoric designed to isolate and/or insulate Thailand from US foreign policy. The Junta may have rushed too quickly on that tact without first securing the Thai economy. If Thailand can't make serious amends with the US by mid-year, it will lose substantial exports to the US and experience a weakening of the baht unless it can switch its exports from the US to China.

so you are suggesting if Thailand acts more respectfully & makes amends to the US & quit being anti american,undemocratic,anti capitalist then the Thai baht will remain strong?

My stats say export to China is 14% & to the US is 9.7%...not sure how accurate the numbers are.Japan is at 10 %...Indonesia & Malaysia about 5% each.

quote Iphad:

The EU will in the next couple weeks start "Quantitative easing" so they will be printing Euro's to support their failing banks...so then Euros would be used to buy Swiss Francs causing mass inflation..The Swiss saw the writing on the wall & although will be a loss to exports..will protect the weakening of the Swiss currency. unquote.

@ iphad: I've lost you after when you started saying Euros would be uses to buy Swiss francs.causing mass inflation. Can you explain how you arrive at this given everyone worries about deflation in Europe?

What I meant ...is the Euro after "quantitative easing" means the Euro will print money..lots of it...similar to what Japan is going through now..so the Euro will be worth less...so it would take..as it already is from recently unpegging Swiss franc to the Euro...more Euros to buy Swiss Francs..so inflation for imported goods and probably Euro will go down in value to other currencies too.

If the Swiss...by their unpegging to the Euro...have lost confidence in the Euro...it's probably a sure sign that not all is well with the Euro.

The Swiss didn't want the Euro to be exchanged for Swiss Francs at the previous pegging as this would cause inflation because the Swiss would have to print more Francs too.

The US is allowed to print money & stay high in value ..for now...because they are the World's trade currency...roughly 60% of all trade in the world is in US dollars.

I mean inflation to the currency...or in the case of the Euro..it will be worth less.

I am not an economics expert so this is my opinion of what's going on.I spend a few hours everyday reading politics of the world.

Meaning ...don't sell your race horse on my opinion.

If the BOT buys billions of US dollars it would be to weaken the baht..not strengthen it.....and although the comparisons of Baht to the US dollar or Euro is of importance to farang...what's important to Thailand is it's comparison to neighbouring country currencies so that Thailand remains competitive.

But since the foreign currency reserves (USD) have fallen we can conclude that the action taken by BOT was to strengthen THB not weaken it, or perhaps it was to prevent a rapid fall.

I don't pretend to know what BOT is doing...if they sold or reduced their USD foreign reserves...could be for several reasons..for one the US dollar is over priced...so if they bought under valued gold for the US dollars they would be wise..if they sold to pay off debts would be wise too...if they sold to buy back baht for for circulation in the thai economy, that would strengthen the Baht.

I would think it would be better for Thailand if the baht exchange is lower to the benefit of exports...

After the demonstrations & coup in the last year or so, one would think that the Thai economy can't be that great...but then where is anywhere great..the global economy is in a mess

But again it's the comparison to Vietnam,Malaysia & neighbouring countries.

If the BOT buys billions of US dollars it would be to weaken the baht..not strengthen it.....and although the comparisons of Baht to the US dollar or Euro is of importance to farang...what's important to Thailand is it's comparison to neighbouring country currencies so that Thailand remains competitive.

Switzerland stopped buying billions of Euros and the Swiss Franc shot up 30%. Isn't that what happened?

The EU will in the next couple weeks start "Quantitative easing" so they will be printing Euro's to support their failing banks...so then Euros would be used to buy Swiss Francs causing mass inflation..The Swiss saw the writing on the wall & although will be a loss to exports..will protect the weakening of the Swiss currency.

If the BOT buys billions of US dollars it would be to weaken the baht..not strengthen it.....and although the comparisons of Baht to the US dollar or Euro is of importance to farang...what's important to Thailand is it's comparison to neighbouring country currencies so that Thailand remains competitive.

For some reason that is beyond me, Thailands economy as a whole appears to be Teflon coated at this moment in time, when other nations which also have weak performance metrics are being hammered.

Maybe the money markets are playing Thailand as some kind of haven bubble in the search for returns ?, but with the over inflated stock prices and manipulation in the SET, this senario will very quickly change, as other countries become better chances for returns.

Russia looks good for high returns in the near future, as Oil finds its way back up.

Thailand is definitely vulnerable to outside forces & we all probably agree that the Thai economy can't be that great but is holding it's own..the US dollar is increasing in value so Americans in Thailand aren't probably feeling any negative effect only positive exchange rates.

The Euro is a mess & oil producing economies like Canada are on the downward trend.Generally Asia is doing ok..except for Japan that has a GNP debt percentage of 212%..Thailand debt to GNP is about 46%..the US is debt is 72% of GNP.

Despite all the negative western press re. Russia they are ok..their debt to GNP is 12% and they have surplus money on hand not the 17 trillion dollars in debt the US has.

Putin has been buying discounted roubles with his over inflated in reserve US dollars as Russia moves away from the US petro dollar anyways and making trade deals with Asia as this is where the economies on the rise are.So I agree..Russia would be an excellent choice to invest.Russia is not selling it's gold..it's buying gold.the gold price is manipulated by the Forex to be under valued to keep the US dollar high.

Expect a financial reset in 2015 when the oil derivatives come due to low oil prices & the demise of the US fracking industry.

Where Thailand will be after that I have no idea as probably will be relative to our own currencies getting hammered.

Of course this is my opinion..At the moment I can still survive nicely in Thailand with my reduced exchange rates..I'm thinking maybe I should learn how to grow rice to prepare for the worst.

Except THB cannot be exported hence FOREX manipulation is only possible in country by BOT licensed banks.

are you saying the Thai baht is not traded on the Forex?

According to the Bank for International Settlements or BIS, the Thai Baht ranked 26^th among the most actively traded currencies in the forex market in April 2010, accounting for 0.2 percent of average daily forex market trading volume that month.

The Thai Baht trades most actively against the U.S. Dollar as the counter currency in the USD/THB currency pair. In the foreign exchange market, this pair is typically known as Dollar Baht. The Thai Baht lacks a popular nickname in the forex market, so it is typically referred to simply as the Thai Baht by forex traders.

Furthermore, due to Thailand’s industrial and service led free-market economy, the Thai Baht has enjoyed considerable interest among traders in the forex market despite its status as an exotic currency. Nevertheless, since Thailand is a net importer of fuels, raw materials and capital goods, and a net exporter of textiles, shoes, and electronics, the value of the Thai Baht can be influenced by fluctuations in the relative values of those items." http://www.ozforex.com.au/news-commentary/forex-wiki/currency-encyclopedia/thb

The second most notorious trade of Soros came in 1997 as he saw a possibility that the Thai Baht could go down so he went short on the baht (by going long on USD/THB) using forward contracts. His actions are often considered to be a triggering factor which formed the big Asian financial crisis affecting not only Thailand but also South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Honk Kong and others." http://forexillustrated.com/trading-strategies-biggest-trades-soros/

Thailand has a floating currency rate and is determined by the market forces of supply & demand. How much demand there is in relation to supply of a currency will determine the currency's value in relation to another country's currencies.

I believe Thailand's economy is ok...better than during the protests but probably worse than pre - protest.

Trade surplus will increase the demand for country's currency by foreigners, so there should be appreciation in value. A trade deficit would weaken the currency.

Thailand is basically self sufficient in many areas but the previous high cost of oil that has now been greatly reduced has helped ease the flight of Thai baht from the country which probably offsets any real improvement in the economy.

A country's currency has nothing to do with gold reserve..although it probably should...but this gets into the argument of gold vs fiat currency.

The Foreign exchange market ( Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. It is by far the largest Market in the world in terms of volume of trading, The main players in the Forex are the large international banks.

Unfortunately, the Western banksters control (or try to) the World. All the Markets are fixed now.. the Stock Market,Forex etc.

Capitalism has been replaced.

The large Banks are too Big to Fail but they will..It's all a "House of Cards" ready to collapse.

Thailand is in the middle..not doing great & not doing that terrible.

A couple of points:

THB is not a freely convertible currency plus it is very small in global currency terms, western banks are not interested in controlling or manipulating THB, even if they could (which they can't). The only entity that could manipulate THB is BOT and if/when they do so, evidence is clearly seen that they have done so.

The Thai baht is an independent, free-floating currency.

From 1956 until 1997, the baht was pegged to the US dollar until the Asian Financial crisis..then was floated since then.

The Banks control the Forex, the Foreign Exchange Market.

Traders on the Forex can influence a currency..one can look at the run on the Russian Rouble.

It's to do with money coming in & money going out.Thailand is relatively stable..Fewer Thai Baht going out to buy barrels of oil vs any improvement in the economy.

Canada's rate of exchange along with other nations is due to less dollars coming in from oil..when oil is $120+ a barrel the Canadian dollar will be even or maybe a little above the US dollar.

yes BOT can support the Baht...buy buying Baht back.

As Captbonio stated in a previous post..."it's not so much that the Baht is strong , but rather that the others are weak".

With the Japanese Yen decline I expect a currency war in se asia..so I too expect the Thai Baht exchange to drop so that Thailand will remain competitive in exports.

Thailand has a floating currency rate and is determined by the market forces of supply & demand. How much demand there is in relation to supply of a currency will determine the currency's value in relation to another country's currencies.

I believe Thailand's economy is ok...better than during the protests but probably worse than pre - protest.

Trade surplus will increase the demand for country's currency by foreigners, so there should be appreciation in value. A trade deficit would weaken the currency.

Thailand is basically self sufficient in many areas but the previous high cost of oil that has now been greatly reduced has helped ease the flight of Thai baht from the country which probably offsets any real improvement in the economy.

A country's currency has nothing to do with gold reserve..although it probably should...but this gets into the argument of gold vs fiat currency.

The Foreign exchange market ( Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. It is by far the largest Market in the world in terms of volume of trading, The main players in the Forex are the large international banks.

Unfortunately, the Western banksters control (or try to) the World. All the Markets are fixed now.. the Stock Market,Forex etc.

Capitalism has been replaced.

The large Banks are too Big to Fail but they will..It's all a "House of Cards" ready to collapse.

Thailand is in the middle..not doing great & not doing that terrible.