Jump to content

lostsoul49

Member
  • Posts

    499
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by lostsoul49

  1. Doing a great job.

    Things will speed up once there is a government in place to take some of the workload.

    We need the NCPO there to mediate between what is good and bad for the future, while politicians will certainly argue and slow progress the NCPO can then step in and make the decision.

    • Like 2
  2. Without a clear definition of terms, this seems nothing more than an attempt to micromanage political parties. In addition, what may be considered populist policies could be introduced in Parliament (if there is another one) without them ever having been mentioned in the platform of a political party or during the course of a person's campaign for office. What happens then? The junta has already responded to economic issues for rubber farmers in the south and for other farmers in Rayong and Chantaburi and provided subsidies and relief. These may be labeled populist policies but they're ok in my book. Policies that respond to natural disasters or force majeures could also be regarded as populist. Remember the coupons doled out to flood victims a few years ago? I can't speak for other countries but in in the US, bills that require government expenditures are required to be submitted to the Government Accounting Office for an estimate of funding that will be required, etc. These are estimates and the assumptions may change over time due to changing economic conditions but it does provide for a modicum of transparency. The way things are shaping up, Parliament will not have much in in the way of acting on any legislation and MPs will not have much power much at all.

    Junta left, junta right, but we have NACC and EC here.

    Of course anything between black and white is difficult, but a certain level of screening, or requirement to have a rather sound financing plan (even with planned deficits) seems a better alternative than having a party doing vote buying through irresponsible and impossible 'election' promises and using a parliamentary majority to push through those self-serving policies ignoring or even obstructing the opposition in doing it's appointed job.

    A recent example would be the 700++ billion 'mislayed' in 2-1/2 years in only the RPPS, with farmers still poor. Allegedly that is, the poor farmers that is.

    What if a party's platform just says they will provide subsidies to farmers to help them better their standard of living without any specifics? Is the NACC and the EC going to demand that they quantify their platform? Usually, party platforms are long on programs to be enacted and short on specifics. If the party says they are going to do this and that, are they going to have to submit a budget to the NACC to illustrate how they will fund their projects? So many things in government are done ad hoc and without planning. Maybe the farmers are still poor but they got their checks based on the amount of rice they pledged - right? The price they got was a good one. What do you suggest to improve the standard of living for farmers? Subsidies/price supports are pretty much the way things are done in other countries. In Thailand, I think issue of poverty among farmers is more linked to patterns of land ownership. Maybe land reform is the way to go?

    You didn't read the OP correctly.

    It states that you can't just come out with a general unspecified promise... You have to have in depth and specific details, and these have to be scrutinized in detail before you can stand up and promise anything.

    Populism is on the way out and it was the only way Thaksin could back a party.

    He is FINISHED!

    • Like 2
  3. Weren't the numbers of around 19 million tons total purchased for the rice scheme tossed around much earlier?

    How do they find so much rotten and missing rice without even checking all of the warehouses yet, and come up with 18 million tons will be sold?

    Most probably an estimation. What will be interesting is the mark to market estimate on the value vis a vis what it cost the country.

    Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

    This also makes me wonder. I was convinced (and still am) that a large reason the YS government didn't sell rice was because it was the collateral for loans. Selling it would have exposed its true value and the bank would have had to realize the loss on the books. Good banking practice would also have caused the bank to mark the rest of the rice to market.

    Now the general seems in such a hurry to almost force a mark to market of all of the rice, breaking the bank on paper. The bank would be insolvent. The bank is government owned and holds citizens' deposits which it has loaned for the rice scheme.

    Where is the government going to suddenly come up with 700+ billion baht to cover the losses and keep the bank afloat? Now they announce speedy rice sales. Surely this will trigger Moody's and the IMF to dump the Thai ratings???

    The numbers aren't anywhere big enough to kill the country economically. It won't trigger some nonsense with Moody's. You think Moody's doesn't have some commodities guy somewhere who they can ask, "what is 3 year old rice worth?"

    Answer "nothing".

    http://oryza.com/

    By the way, there is no secret magic to the rice market. It is all very well known what the prices are...

    Long grain white rice - high quality
    Thailand 100% B grade 425-435 Vietnam 5% broken 420-430 India 5% broken 430-440 Pakistan 5% broken 435-445 Cambodia 5% broken 440-450 U.S. 4% broken 550-560 Uruguay 5% broken 625-635 Argentina 5% broken 620-630

    Long grain white rice - low quality
    Thailand 25% broken NQ Vietnam 25% broken 370-380 Pakistan 25% broken 380-390 Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 India 25% broken 390-400 U.S. 15% broken 530-540
    Long grain parboiled rice
    Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 430-440 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 435-445 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 630-640 Brazil parboiled 5% broken NQ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
    Long grain fragrant rice
    Thailand Hommali 92% 985-995 Vietnam Jasmine 575-585 India basmati 2% broken NQ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ Cambodia Phka Malis 845-855
    Brokens
    Thailand A1 Super NQ Vietnam 100% broken 330-340 Pakistan 100% broken stxd 325-335 Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 India 100% Broken stxd 315-325 Egypt medium grain brokens NQ U.S. pet food 470-480 Brazil half grain NQ
    Medium grain milled
    U.S. Calrose 4% broken 1025-1035 Egypt medium grain 6% NQ

    - See more at: http://oryza.com/#sthash.IN4M50p8.dpuf

    You totally miss his point here.

    The fallout can be very dramatic from this.

    A bank owned by the government has massive interests in this scheme seeing as it accounts for a huge amount of paper assets and can drive it to insolvency.

    Moody's etc... are thankfully a lot more forward thinking than you seem to be.

    They take into account the impact of not only the scheme losses, the frail condition of the BACC and the rice prices which you have published and don't take into account buyer confidence when buying from Thailand and would likely be looking elsewhere for the next few years judging by the diminishing quality.

    But also the coming 3 year's rice harvests and exactly what the expected 20 million tonnes per year on top of the remaining stockpiles are going to do to the overall domestic and global prices or Thailand's position in the buyer confidence stakes?

    Or what happens when 10 million people reliant on rice revenue suddenly have nothing but losses and growing debts. Thyen the household economy starts to shrink.

    You look too simplistically at this problem, thank god Moody's and other expert economists don't. Remember, Rice is Thailand's number 1 export. You wreck that industry, you can't say everything is alright and will have zero effect.

    The rice INDUSTRY is in the crapper, and a miracle is what is needed to avert an all out disaster to Thailand. Thanks to Thaksin and his corrupt family and regime.

    BTW.... Why have you issues prices of the best of Thailand's quality???... The OP is mostly about the fact that Thailand's rice is probably now the worst in the world by the time it ships.

  4. All of a sudden the US needs all the friends it can get. Russia, China, and Iran working against them. India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan working the other side. Saudis, Gulf states, and North Africa fomenting anti-American mischief. The French being the French. And, now, even the tamed poodle Germans getting upset. Not to mention the usual chaos and anti-gringo sentiment being sold south of the Rio Grande. Maybe some of the remaining Euro states are friendly, but none of them seem to matter much on the world stage anyway. Better take your friends where you can find them. Now, the Thai generals don't look so bad after all. In fact, I would say that it just might be the Thai generals who hold most of the cards right now. US might need to ingratiate itself somehow with them.

    Jesus Zydeco this one borders on Uncle Sam bigotry from the last century. Lets have a look at what you said:

    * Russia You are probably right there but who the hell wants to cosy up to Putin ( with the exception of Ukranian separatists )

    * China When have things ever been good between USA and China? ( apart from a brief meeting between Mao, Nixon and Kissinger in the early 70s )

    * Iran Things are a lot lot better now that Mamuhad Adineajad [sic] and George W Bush aren't around any more.

    * India What's up there? Have I missed something!

    * Afghanistan What did you expect?

    * Pakistan It's been better granted but with all those drone attacks it's not a surprise really is it?

    * Saudis + Gulf states with the exception of the Saudi Govt's concern over the (very slow moving) thaw with Iran Which of these Govts have been openly hostile to The USA?

    * North Africa apart from the attack on the embassy in Tripoli a few years back What info do you know which suggests the whole of North Africa is enemies with America?

    * France This one pisses me off and is well basically a lie ( I'm a Brit who happens to like the French)

    * Anti-Gringo sentiment South of the Rio grande Christ you make Cormac Macarthy's Blood Meridian characters look like Henry Fonda ( Great Book )

    * Germany it has been better but once this CIA double agent /Tapping Merkels phone BS blows over It'll soon be forgotten.

    * Your last point about the mending a few splinters in a bridge with the Thai Generals is relevant but inspite of a few garbage comments from Kerry I never thought the bridge between America and Thailand had been torc

    hed to the ground anyway.

    Wow!!! Talk about head up the pooper.

    But just for you.... everyone in the world loves the USA and all its dominence. No problems with the future or the USD or the economy or the fact that every man, woman and child in the US owes the rest of the world half a million USD thanks to your excessive printing of worthless bills.

    The truth is.... enough of the world are sick and tired of the US and over the next 2 years I guarantee you we will be looking at a completely different global landscape both politically and economically.

    Read my post before this one... This is not BS, it is happening now.

    Also the link at the botom that shows this article is also very interesting. As a matter of fact I will paste it here just for you.

    http://www.whiteoutpress.com/articles/2014/q2/russia-china-deals-move-us-dollar-closer-collapse/

    It's up to you if you want to read it or not, or if you want to keep your head buried where the sun don't shine.... But some good advice if you have lots of money sat in the bank in USD..... Move it into Yuan.

    Thanks for link it does look interesting and I admit to some generalization in my previous post although there was a lot of it in Zydeca's post but was there any call for toilet humour rudeness and the link only covers China_Russia not every other country mentioned in Zydeca's OP.

    If you go to the previous post of mine, there is a link also at the bottom which lists all the countries that are getting together to pull the rug out from the US and the USD to end its global dominance and also mute their ability to have a foreign policy or ability to ever have any real influence over global affairs.

    The countries Zydeca named are all pretty much included in the list who have signed the agreement to gang up against the US and there is very little doubt that as far as dumping the USD they will all be on board. Russia were not present, but I think it goes without saying that they will be included.

    That really only leaves the EU and rest of the G20 nations and they are all going to sidle up where the economic power is, and that isn't going to be with the USA.

    The US will be bankrupted, they have NO money once their currency falls and a huge debt they can't pay and zero credit worthiness. The country will go into sheer meltdown.

    Fortunes will be lost and the world's largest mega-corps who have almost all of their capital in the USD will go down the tubes overnight.

    The only thing the US will have is weapons, massive civil unrest and a recession that will eclipse the 1930's.

    What left for them but to lash out with their military might????

    with the whole world against them and nothing to offer... They will be friendless.

    Could be less than 2 years away... the next G133 meeting is in September, by then it could be more like a G150+ meeting

  5. All of a sudden the US needs all the friends it can get. Russia, China, and Iran working against them. India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan working the other side. Saudis, Gulf states, and North Africa fomenting anti-American mischief. The French being the French. And, now, even the tamed poodle Germans getting upset. Not to mention the usual chaos and anti-gringo sentiment being sold south of the Rio Grande. Maybe some of the remaining Euro states are friendly, but none of them seem to matter much on the world stage anyway. Better take your friends where you can find them. Now, the Thai generals don't look so bad after all. In fact, I would say that it just might be the Thai generals who hold most of the cards right now. US might need to ingratiate itself somehow with them.

    Jesus Zydeco this one borders on Uncle Sam bigotry from the last century. Lets have a look at what you said:

    * Russia You are probably right there but who the hell wants to cosy up to Putin ( with the exception of Ukranian separatists )

    * China When have things ever been good between USA and China? ( apart from a brief meeting between Mao, Nixon and Kissinger in the early 70s )

    * Iran Things are a lot lot better now that Mamuhad Adineajad [sic] and George W Bush aren't around any more.

    * India What's up there? Have I missed something!

    * Afghanistan What did you expect?

    * Pakistan It's been better granted but with all those drone attacks it's not a surprise really is it?

    * Saudis + Gulf states with the exception of the Saudi Govt's concern over the (very slow moving) thaw with Iran Which of these Govts have been openly hostile to The USA?

    * North Africa apart from the attack on the embassy in Tripoli a few years back What info do you know which suggests the whole of North Africa is enemies with America?

    * France This one pisses me off and is well basically a lie ( I'm a Brit who happens to like the French)

    * Anti-Gringo sentiment South of the Rio grande Christ you make Cormac Macarthy's Blood Meridian characters look like Henry Fonda ( Great Book )

    * Germany it has been better but once this CIA double agent /Tapping Merkels phone BS blows over It'll soon be forgotten.

    * Your last point about the mending a few splinters in a bridge with the Thai Generals is relevant but inspite of a few garbage comments from Kerry I never thought the bridge between America and Thailand had been torc

    hed to the ground anyway.

    Wow!!! Talk about head up the pooper.

    But just for you.... everyone in the world loves the USA and all its dominence. No problems with the future or the USD or the economy or the fact that every man, woman and child in the US owes the rest of the world half a million USD thanks to your excessive printing of worthless bills.

    The truth is.... enough of the world are sick and tired of the US and over the next 2 years I guarantee you we will be looking at a completely different global landscape both politically and economically.

    Read my post before this one... This is not BS, it is happening now.

    Also the link at the botom that shows this article is also very interesting. As a matter of fact I will paste it here just for you.

    http://www.whiteoutpress.com/articles/2014/q2/russia-china-deals-move-us-dollar-closer-collapse/

    It's up to you if you want to read it or not, or if you want to keep your head buried where the sun don't shine.... But some good advice if you have lots of money sat in the bank in USD..... Move it into Yuan.

    • Like 1
  6. So if someone else gets raped next week, this new guy will probably keep his job because he wouldn't have had enough time to stop people from getting raped on trains. But if someone gets raped in six months time, should he lose his job on the basis that he should have been able to prevent any further rapes in that time.

    YES

×
×
  • Create New...