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Harsh Jones

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Posts posted by Harsh Jones


  1.  


     
      
    You are quoting and relying upon Zerohedge.  As I have noted on here before, I knew Daniel Ivandjinski from his Miller Buckfire days.  While I am a securities lawyer, I also still have my Series 7 and 66 unlike Ivandjiiski who got popped for insider trading.
     
    Haha, you guys have to realize who Ivandjiiski is and why Ivandjiiski write what he writes . . .  There is a reason and purpose as to what he does, besides being bat shit insane, and it has very, very little to do with reality.
     
    My wife is a Russian born Yale and Novosibirsk University educated and works as a Global Corporate & Investment Banker for BofA in Russian institutional investments and bonds.  Her entire existence (and a big chunk of our lifestyle) depends upon her ability to accurately forecast every major macro and micro economic factor that may impact Russia.  She blows it and the consequences are real unlike you, I or the "Tyler Durden's of the world."
     
    Now let's talk reality here.  The "Tyler Durden" hysteria you talk about is nothing more than "Tyler Durden" hysteria.
     
    Russia pulled $45 bn out of US in March to protect it from being frozen by US sanctions or could have had more to do with seeking a higher yield from somewhere like Belgium.  Russia, however, pulled $ 63 bn out in 2013 and Russia only held about 1% of the total US Treasuries in December of 2013 so any move by Russia can be absorbed.  China is limited in its ability to move money out of concern for currency appreciation which would all put cripple their already lagging GDP/economy if their cheap products are no longer affordable on the world market.
     
    Russian economy has an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and GDP.  US could release 500,000 barrels per day and push down prices by $ 10 to $ 12 a barrel.  US could also easily cause in increase in oil production to drive prices down to $ 85 ish a barrel.  A mere $ 10 reduction in current per barrel price would result in a reduction of about $ 40 bn in Russian expert income and lower Russian GDP by as much as 4%.  Saudi can tolerate the lower prices because budgets are premised on lower prices.  Russia cannot.
     
    US and banks already hedge against effects of Russian sanctions and only had about $ 10bn invested and at risk in Russia in February of this year.  US exports to Russia account for less than .1% of US GDP.  The recent sell-off of Russian securities has caused its currency to fall 8% against the dollar.  Russia's cost to protect $ 10m of debt through credit swap has nearly doubled to about $ 300,000 in just a year.  Russia raised rates to 8% in an effort to curb inflation and some are forecasting the rate to go as high as double digits.
     
    Jeez, I could on and on about Russia and I actually am very fond of Russia and Russians.  It is extremely sad what is happening to the common man and woman in Russia.  They are a proud, hardworking and good people that are absolutely raped by corruption.
     


    I am relying on Zerohedge ?

    Show me one, just one article or publication where ZeroHedge has spoken positively of the Euro, the ECB or the Eurozone. ...... ?? Zerohedge posts negative articles on the Euro almost daily.

    It's funny to watch the US get all giddy about their highly cash flow negative shale oil "boom" while at the same time, try to claim that Russia has a case of Dutch disease. The only thing to come out of the US since 2008 is this subprime lending bubble in shale oil, while Russia writes up gas deals with China at prices that make everything that is going on in the US energy sector , even more cash flow negative.
     
     
     
    ???  uhm you cite/quote zerohedge right here . . ., unless someone jacked your awesome screen name?  Haha, you read zerohedge everyday.  I am not giddy about anything except your stating that Russian and China going to dump bonds, ruin the US and that the world will dump the dollar . .   well that and how well the US economy has treated me lately.
     
     
    Harsh Jones, on 01 Aug 2014 - 07:49, said:snapback.png

     
    Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
    http://www.zerohedge...s-bypassing-dol
     
    As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.
     
    -The ECB is the worlds first  non nation state central bank.
    -All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
    -The Euro represents more people then the USD
    -The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
    -The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
    -The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
    -The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%
     
    The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.
     


    I quote Zerohedge from time to time. A lot of people in the financial industry read Zerohedge. Some admit it. Some don't. Just because I quoted ZeroHedge does not mean I am some ZH bot. What is your reasoning for Tyler Durdens motives ect ?

    Anyway sanctions are a zero sum game. That's my point. The US can put on some petty sanctions but if they put on ones that will have a meaningful enough hit, just means that Russia will counter with an equally hard hit. In this equasion , Russia is the creditor and the US is te debtor. So to take this to it's conclusion, Putin could and would at least try and pull a Gorge Soros. This would not turn out well for the US. Russia is used to being self sufficient. The US is not.
  2. [quote name="F430murci" post="8185245" timestamp="1406915313"]

    [quote name="Harsh Jones" post="8185021" timestamp="1406909145"]

     [quote name="Publicus" post="8184591" timestamp="1406900363"]
     [quote name="Harsh Jones" post="8184371" timestamp="1406897349"]
     
    The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.
     
    The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.
     
     
    Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
    http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
    Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.
     
    Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol
     
    As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.
     
    -The ECB is the worlds first  non nation state central bank.
    -All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
    -The Euro represents more people then the USD
    -The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
    -The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
    -The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
    -The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%
     
    The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.
     
     
     
     [/quote] 
    I see you've changed your tact away from saying Russia and China are going to bust the USD$, the U.S. economy and financial systems, Anglo-American civilization as you guys often call it, thereby freeing all the oppressed people of the world into the hands of Moscow and Beijing. You're prudent to shut up about that. 
     
    So now you need to specify precisely what you mean when you say, "The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be." 
     
    Tell us in precise terms - some few examples will do - how will the world be better off by pursuing your way, the United States included. Your concerns for the United States, the G-7, the G-20 are not exactly at the top of your posts....or anywhere in your posts. 
     
    Are you one of the gold bugs that wants to take monetary systems back to the 19th century and its continuing roller coaster cycles of boom-bust. The historical record shows the inflexibility of the gold standard in modern economics and finance, in people's everyday lives. Ron Paul always missed this aspect of society, i.e., people's everyday lives.
     
    You need to address the following especially and in particular.....
     
    Why the Dollar Remains the Reserve Currency
     

    The world still clamors for dollars and there is no sign this will end. The world is so eager for protection against financial market mayhem, and theres such a dearth of safe assets, so people may be willing to pay a high price for safety. It is plausible that there could come a tipping point when foreign and domestic investors lose confidence in the dollar. But this would create turmoil in financial markets worldwide. And that would cause investors to run for coverright back into the arms of the dollar! So, till a better alternative comes along, for the foreseeable future the world is stuck in the dollar trap.
     
     
     
    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/qa-why-the-dollar-remains-the-reserve-currency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0[/quote]I already answered that.

    The petrodollar is still enforced around the world as we can see in Ukraine.

    And despite the US propaganda, the Euro stands ready to take on the reserve currency status on a unit of account basis. And I also listed the reasons why. Nor did I say anything about handing the world over to the big bad capitalists In Bejing or our fellow Judeao Christians in Moscow
     [/quote]
     
    You are quoting and relying upon Zerohedge.  As I have noted on here before, I knew Daniel Ivandjinski from his Miller Buckfire days.  While I am a securities lawyer, I also still have my Series 7 and 66 unlike Ivandjiiski who got popped for insider trading.
     
    Haha, you guys have to realize who Ivandjiiski is and why Ivandjiiski write what he writes . . .  There is a reason and purpose as to what he does, besides being bat shit insane, and it has very, very little to do with reality.
     
    My wife is a Russian born Yale and Novosibirsk University educated and works as a Global Corporate & Investment Banker for BofA in Russian institutional investments and bonds.  Her entire existence (and a big chunk of our lifestyle) depends upon her ability to accurately forecast every major macro and micro economic factor that may impact Russia.  She blows it and the consequences are real unlike you, I or the "Tyler Durden's of the world."
     
    Now let's talk reality here.  The "Tyler Durden" hysteria you talk about is nothing more than "Tyler Durden" hysteria.
     
    Russia pulled $45 bn out of US in March to protect it from being frozen by US sanctions or could have had more to do with seeking a higher yield from somewhere like Belgium.  Russia, however, pulled $ 63 bn out in 2013 and Russia only held about 1% of the total US Treasuries in December of 2013 so any move by Russia can be absorbed.  China is limited in its ability to move money out of concern for currency appreciation which would all put cripple their already lagging GDP/economy if their cheap products are no longer affordable on the world market.
     
    Russian economy has an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and GDP.  US could release 500,000 barrels per day and push down prices by $ 10 to $ 12 a barrel.  US could also easily cause in increase in oil production to drive prices down to $ 85 ish a barrel.  A mere $ 10 reduction in current per barrel price would result in a reduction of about $ 40 bn in Russian expert income and lower Russian GDP by as much as 4%.  Saudi can tolerate the lower prices because budgets are premised on lower prices.  Russia cannot.
     
    US and banks already hedge against effects of Russian sanctions and only had about $ 10bn invested and at risk in Russia in February of this year.  US exports to Russia account for less than .1% of US GDP.  The recent sell-off of Russian securities has caused its currency to fall 8% against the dollar.  Russia's cost to protect $ 10m of debt through credit swap has nearly doubled to about $ 300,000 in just a year.  Russia raised rates to 8% in an effort to curb inflation and some are forecasting the rate to go as high as double digits.
     
    Jeez, I could on and on about Russia and I actually am very fond of Russia and Russians.  It is extremely sad what is happening to the common man and woman in Russia.  They are a proud, hardworking and good people that are absolutely raped by corruption.[/quote]

    I am relying on Zerohedge ?

    Show me one, just one article or publication where ZeroHedge has spoken positively of the Euro, the ECB or the Eurozone. ...... ?? Zerohedge posts negative articles on the Euro almost daily.

    It's funny to watch the US get all giddy about their highly cash flow negative shale oil "boom" while at the same time, try to claim that Russia has a case of Dutch disease. The only thing to come out of the US since 2008 is this subprime lending bubble in shale oil, while Russia writes up gas deals with China at prices that make everything that is going on in the US energy sector , even more cash flow negative.
  3. Made the comment before........Russia is broke and will fight if they cannot pay.  China will use North Korea to do the nasty with China's oldest enemy Japan.  When the U.S. comes to the aid of Japan then the Chinese will have a legitimate reason to defend its territorial waters in the south china seas.They will claim back Taiwan first, which is almost a feit accompli already.


    Russia has ZERO net debt.

    Just thought id clear that up.

  4.  


    A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.
     
    The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies  In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.
     
    The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.
     
    All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?
     
    What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them
     
    Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.) 
     
    Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today?   laugh.png   What do you think?
     
     
    Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty
     
    The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putins grip on power.
     
    "If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.
     
    "Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."
     
    http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html
     
     
    Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.
     

     
    The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.
     
    The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.
     
     
    Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
    http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
    Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.
     
    Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol
     
    As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.
     
    -The ECB is the worlds first  non nation state central bank.
    -All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
    -The Euro represents more people then the USD
    -The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
    -The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
    -The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
    -The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%
     
    The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.
     
     
     
     
     
    I see you've changed your tact away from saying Russia and China are going to bust the USD$, the U.S. economy and financial systems, Anglo-American civilization as you guys often call it, thereby freeing all the oppressed people of the world into the hands of Moscow and Beijing. You're prudent to shut up about that. 
     
    So now you need to specify precisely what you mean when you say, "The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be." 
     
    Tell us in precise terms - some few examples will do - how will the world be better off by pursuing your way, the United States included. Your concerns for the United States, the G-7, the G-20 are not exactly at the top of your posts....or anywhere in your posts. 
     
    Are you one of the gold bugs that wants to take monetary systems back to the 19th century and its continuing roller coaster cycles of boom-bust. The historical record shows the inflexibility of the gold standard in modern economics and finance, in people's everyday lives. Ron Paul always missed this aspect of society, i.e., people's everyday lives.
     
    You need to address the following especially and in particular.....
     
    Why the Dollar Remains the Reserve Currency
     

    The world still clamors for dollars and there is no sign this will end. The world is so eager for protection against financial market mayhem, and theres such a dearth of safe assets, so people may be willing to pay a high price for safety. It is plausible that there could come a tipping point when foreign and domestic investors lose confidence in the dollar. But this would create turmoil in financial markets worldwide. And that would cause investors to run for coverright back into the arms of the dollar! So, till a better alternative comes along, for the foreseeable future the world is stuck in the dollar trap.
     
     

     
    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/qa-why-the-dollar-remains-the-reserve-currency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
    I already answered that.

    The petrodollar is still enforced around the world as we can see in Ukraine.

    And despite the US propaganda, the Euro stands ready to take on the reserve currency status on a unit of account basis. And I also listed the reasons why. Nor did I say anything about handing the world over to the big bad capitalists In Bejing or our fellow Judeao Christians in Moscow
  5. @ Publicus

    In a world where we seen George Soros take down the Bank of England , it is not at all out of the realm of possibility , that Putin could do serous damage with the leverage he has over the Fed.

    So after Washington initiates a coup on Ukraine , they plan on arming the govt that they installed ? This is not news. Nor do I see how this proves your point that Russia is the USSR boogeyman.

    It proves that the US is trying to re create the USSR
  6. A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

     

    The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies  In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

     

    The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

     

    All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

     

    What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

     

    Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.) 

     

    Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today?   laugh.png   What do you think?

     

     

    Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

     

    The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putin’s grip on power.

     

    "If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

     

    "Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

     

    http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

     

     

    Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

     

     

    The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

     

    The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

     

     

    Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar

    http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html

    Russia’s second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

     

    Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

     

    As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

     

    -The ECB is the worlds first  non nation state central bank.

    -All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

    -The Euro represents more people then the USD

    -The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

    -The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

    -The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

    -The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

     

    The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

     

     

     

  7.  

     

    The Europeans have joined the U.S. in some pretty tough sanctions which are reverberating throughout the Russian economy.

     

    Russian stocks fell 10% to an 11-week low, Rosneft shares and bonds fell.

     

    The new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe add to grief delivered to Moscow by a court in the Hague that earlier this week ruled Russia must compensate the former owners of Yukos oil company $50 billion, which also which means Rosneft oil will be sued next in the Hague by Russian investors so Rosneft shares and value are also falling hard.  

     

    The Europeans are just not screwing around this time.

     

    The Russian economy is verging on recession which very likely means a recession is now virtually inevitable.

     

    US and Europe hit Russia with toughest sanctions yet

     

    "The decision today was inevitable," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, urging the Russian leadership to "pursue the path of de-escalation and cooperation."

     

    Europe's sanctions will notably make it tougher for Russian state-owned banks to access European financial markets, forcing their costs higher and hobbling an already struggling economy.

     

    EU ambassadors also agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on four close Putin business associates, the first time the bloc has targeted such figures.

     

    http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-claim-kiev-now-controls-part-mh17-202130990.html;_ylt=A0SO8wSRINpTQ0QAKeBXNyoA

     

     

    Visa and Master Card have stopped servicing four of Russia's five largest banks and the capital markets in both the U.S. and Europe are virtually closed now to Russia.

     

    The bluster from some people around here that Russia will demand energy payments in Rubles, RMB or in gold and will bust the USD is a lot of hot air. Putin this time has sh*t the bed.

     

    It is not Putin that has sh*t the bed. It is the US. Since Putin dumped so many treasuires after the first round of saanctions, the US had to create this phantom proxy buyer in Belgium to make up the diffrence.

     

    US phantom proxy buyer ? Or did Belgium all of a sudden, discover and bring a few billion barrels of oil  to market ? You decide.

     

     

     

     

     

    There's nothing real to decide.

     

    Anti-globalism reactionary right wingnut media are cheerfully and tantalizingly concocting a new and sinister creation, i.e., that Putin is going to destroy the U.S. economy, the USD$, Anglo-American civilization itself, probably in one fell swoop. They're delighted with themselves for cooking up this latest greasy dish.

     

    I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. I'd prefer Putin demand the payment in Rubles or RMB or gold rather than cheeseburgers given I'm partial to cheeseburgers, which would anyway benefit Putin more due to the greater and more direct impact on the U.S. of his demanding cheeseburgers than Rubles, RMB or gold. 

     

    The total of withdrawals by Russians of U.S. government financial instruments from the custody account of the U.S. New York Federal Reserve by the end of the past March, $105 billion, was indeed a radical sum of value.

     

    It is noted the action was a withdrawal, not a cashing of the instruments. Putin would wreck the Ruble and the Russian economy overnight by cashing such a sum of money so suddenly or even over a period of many months. So too would the Boyz in Beijing in respect of their currency value and their economy and financial system if they were to do the same. No realistic amount of gold holdings by either Moscow or Beijing could avoid or preclude these radical and catastrophic realities to either or to both.

     

    New York Fed custody holdings of U.S. Treasury securities kept in the accounts of certain foreign officials' and particular central banks have fallen almost every week since mid-December, as weakness in emerging-market currencies has caused emerging market central banks to raise dollars by liquidating their U.S. Treasury holdings, and then turn around and sell those dollars on the open market in order to prop up their own wobbling currencies.

     

    It is thus clear emerging market central banks have played a role in selling Treasuries and precipitating the record drop of NY Fed custody holdings.

     

    Of far greater significance however is the fact the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control would prevent any custodial bank in the United States, to include the U.S. Federal Reserve, from releasing its custodial hold of Treasuries that had been purchased by suddenly sanctioned foreign individuals, banks, institutions.

     

    The tumult in Eurasia has brought sanctions and more sanctions to now include western European governments. As foreign holders of Treasuries saw U.S. sanctions first coming during the first quarter of the year, they yanked their holdings from Fed custody to be safe. This includes now sanctioned individuals and institutions in Russia. The tired old line that U.S. sanctions are window dressing is in indeed a line that has long since become fagged out, stale, vacuous, to include the same empty claims against the European sanctions imposed on Russia this week.

     

    Note that Belgium as a custodian is not under any U.S. sanctions nor would it be placed under any U.S. sanctions relative to the crisis in Eurasia.

     

    Further, a simple shift of custodians (from the Fed to Belgium) would not impact yields in the Treasury market nor would it affect the U.S. economy, financial system, the USD$ or the U.S. government's fiscal position. The CCP Boyz in Beijing pulled a similar PR stunt last December, bulging Belgium banks with $57 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings with no impact on the United States.

     

    Meanwhile the cheesy anti-global extreme radical right fruitcakes continue their circle jerk party.

     

     

    I didn't know that acknowledging basic arithmetic meant that you  were an anti globalist. That's a funny one. But people that questioned the arithmetic regarding the Pound Sterling before it lost reserve currency status were told by the mainstream and the propagandists that they didn't know anything about economics too.

     

    The US is a debtor nation with a current account deficit that relies on external creditors for support. (Just like the Asian Tigers in the 90's.) The main difference is that the US relies on petrodollar hegemony to keep feeding the government and trade deficit. By forcing the petrodollar on the world, there is no spur and brake mechanism in place to reverse trade or capital flows. 

     

    Wikipedia

     

    Petrodollar

     

    Origin

    In 1971 Richard Nixon was forced to close the gold window taking the U.S. off the gold standard and setting into motion a massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar. In an effort to prop up the value of the dollar Nixon negotiated a deal with Saudi Arabia that in exchange for arms and protection they would denominate all future oil sales in U.S. dollars. Subsequently, the other OPEC countries agreed to similar deals thus ensuring a global demand for U.S. dollars and allowing the U.S. to export some of its inflation.[1] Since these dollars did not circulate within the country they were not part of the normal money supply, economists felt another term was necessary to describe the dollars received by petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) in exchange for oil, so the term petrodollar was coined by Georgetown University economics professor, Ibrahim Oweiss.

     

    Financial impact

    In the existing system, all transactions actually must be settled in U.S. dollars, creating a world-wide demand for dollars. The petrodollar system also meant that the U.S., the largest consumer of oil in the world, gained the power to buy oil with a currency it can print at will.

     

    Now somebody is trying to re-create the big bad USSR and that somebody is the USA. Not Russia. This conflict in the Ukraine is simply the US fighting for petrodollar hegemony. That's what its always about. And the US certainly knows that Putin will not continue to subsidize the obscene and grossly profligate spending and capital waste that is America Inc.

     

    Forbes

    3/21/2013

    Russia's Rosneft Surpasses ExxonMobil To Become World's Biggest Oil Co.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/03/21/russias-rosneft-surpasses-exxonmobil-to-become-worlds-biggest-oil-co/

     

    Forbes

    Russia's Gazprom is the world's largest producer of natural gas.

    http://www.forbes.com/pictures/mef45glfe/2-gazprom-9-7-million-barrels-per-day-3/

     

    Just because you don't think this can be perpetuated forever , doesn't make you an anti globalist.

    U.S.-Debt-vs.-Eurozone-and-U.K..png

     

     

     

     .

     

     

  8.  

     

    The Europeans have joined the U.S. in some pretty tough sanctions which are reverberating throughout the Russian economy.
     
    Russian stocks fell 10% to an 11-week low, Rosneft shares and bonds fell.
     
    The new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe add to grief delivered to Moscow by a court in the Hague that earlier this week ruled Russia must compensate the former owners of Yukos oil company $50 billion, which also which means Rosneft oil will be sued next in the Hague by Russian investors so Rosneft shares and value are also falling hard.  
     
    The Europeans are just not screwing around this time.
     
    The Russian economy is verging on recession which very likely means a recession is now virtually inevitable.
     
    US and Europe hit Russia with toughest sanctions yet
     
    "The decision today was inevitable," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, urging the Russian leadership to "pursue the path of de-escalation and cooperation."
     
    Europe's sanctions will notably make it tougher for Russian state-owned banks to access European financial markets, forcing their costs higher and hobbling an already struggling economy.
     
    EU ambassadors also agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on four close Putin business associates, the first time the bloc has targeted such figures.
     
    http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-claim-kiev-now-controls-part-mh17-202130990.html;_ylt=A0SO8wSRINpTQ0QAKeBXNyoA
     
     
    Visa and Master Card have stopped servicing four of Russia's five largest banks and the capital markets in both the U.S. and Europe are virtually closed now to Russia.
     
    The bluster from some people around here that Russia will demand energy payments in Rubles, RMB or in gold and will bust the USD is a lot of hot air. Putin this time has sh*t the bed.


    Where are you getting the Russian stocks fell 10% since the latest round of sanctions? MICEX has had gains the last 3 days or since latest round of sanctions

    The below is an article from today.

    ---------

    Russian stocks gained for a third day as OAO Magnit advanced and some investors saw U.S. and European Union sanctions as milder than anticipated.

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-stocks-gain-3rd-day-to-trim-monthly-drop-as-magnit-rises.html

     

     

    Down 10% this year accelerated by the crap in Ukraine and the U.S. sanctions, the shooting down of the passenger airliner, then the U.S. and Europe sanctions. The past few daze / days Putin's pals have been propping thing up and the central bank is promising to help the sanctioned banks and institutions.

     

     

     

    , the shooting down of the passenger airliner

     

    There has been no direct evidence to even implicate Russian seperatists in that. Nevermind Russia itself. Plus it was the Washington coup that started it all

    How much bite is in these so called sanctions ?


     

     

    France to deliver Mistral warship to Russia despite US, UK criticism

    "France's word, its signature, must be respected," Xavier Bertrand, a former minister under Sarkozy and senior member of his conservative opposition UMP party, told France Inter radio. "Just because the Americans say 'jump' we shouldn't jump."
     

  9. The Europeans have joined the U.S. in some pretty tough sanctions which are reverberating throughout the Russian economy.

     

    Russian stocks fell 10% to an 11-week low, Rosneft shares and bonds fell.

     

    The new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe add to grief delivered to Moscow by a court in the Hague that earlier this week ruled Russia must compensate the former owners of Yukos oil company $50 billion, which also which means Rosneft oil will be sued next in the Hague by Russian investors so Rosneft shares and value are also falling hard.  

     

    The Europeans are just not screwing around this time.

     

    The Russian economy is verging on recession which very likely means a recession is now virtually inevitable.

     

    US and Europe hit Russia with toughest sanctions yet

     

    "The decision today was inevitable," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, urging the Russian leadership to "pursue the path of de-escalation and cooperation."

     

    Europe's sanctions will notably make it tougher for Russian state-owned banks to access European financial markets, forcing their costs higher and hobbling an already struggling economy.

     

    EU ambassadors also agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on four close Putin business associates, the first time the bloc has targeted such figures.

     

    http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-claim-kiev-now-controls-part-mh17-202130990.html;_ylt=A0SO8wSRINpTQ0QAKeBXNyoA

     

     

    Visa and Master Card have stopped servicing four of Russia's five largest banks and the capital markets in both the U.S. and Europe are virtually closed now to Russia.

     

    The bluster from some people around here that Russia will demand energy payments in Rubles, RMB or in gold and will bust the USD is a lot of hot air. Putin this time has sh*t the bed.

     

    It is not Putin that has sh*t the bed. It is the US. Since Putin dumped so many treasuires after the first round of saanctions, the US had to create this phantom proxy buyer in Belgium to make up the diffrence.

     

    Russia%20TSY%20March_0.jpg
    US phantom proxy buyer ? Or did Belgium all of a sudden, discover and bring a few billion barrels of oil  to market ? You decide.

    Belgium%20TSY%20Holdings%20DEC.jpg

     

     

  10. Going from Chiang Mai to Bangkok by airoplane is 1000 times safer for me than going by bus or car, inspite of MH and other "desasters". Remember the road fatalities during the big yearly holidays.

    I would prefer dying very fast through an air accident over waking up with broken legs, arms, a squashed kidney or eye or ....hm.

    Edit: My father told me, most people dy in the bed, but go in it every day. Now, most traffic fatalities are on the roads, but .......

    They were just showing on CNN today that the missile blew the front cockpit off of M17. They surmised that the people in the middle fell, but the people in the back half flew for a considerable amount of time. This is why the front of the plane was found in a diffrent city then the rest of it.

    We all fly but Im not going to say that I feel comfortable when the wings of the plane mimick the wings of a bird in turbulance

  11. Driving a motorbike on Koh Samui has to be 100 times more dangerous than flying on a commercial flight. I have no fear whatsoever. I consider death to be fated, to some extent. I just think when it is your time to go, not much you can do to stop the reaper from doing his work. LOL. But seriously, how many flights crash these days? And how many flights are there per day? I have seen estimates ranging from 93,000 to 180,000 flights per day, worldwide. And that does not include private planes and jets. And how many crash? You hear about nearly every one that crashes, so it makes it seem like more incidents that there really are. Personally, I love flying. I have loved flying ever since I was a kid. I do not care if the flight is one hour, or 20 hours. I love it. And I will continue doing it for the rest of my life, if I am fortunate enough, and never will I fret over the safety of flying. Never. I have better things to do with my time and energy. Some people are just phobic. Give them something to be phobic about, and they let their minds get carried away. For me, I have little time for fretting, or worry. A waste of energy. It is a shame what happened to MA. They are a good airline. They probably will not survive both of those crashes.

    If a motorcycle loses its abilty to stay upright, there is many diffrent chances of the rider surviving.

    If a jet loses its ability to fly, you are dead.

    This is why some people are not entirely comfortable with flying. And statistics are just statistics. They are not a safety feature.

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