HHTel

I know that.  Just replying to a post that said water is an excellent conductor.  Well pure water isn't.

I didn't expect a reply.

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Just one IO "talking".

Each desk was giving the same info.  I could certainly overhear the same from the one to the left of me.  This time it was not one officer talking off the top of his/her head.

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Did the IO who was talking to you know the timeframe for your current extension to expire when she was talking about the February date?

I guess so.  She had my passport in her hands and to update the 90 day report, she has to look at the extension.

Quote

To conduct a strike safely to “ground” (on a boat this means to the water), create a low-resistance path from the highest point on your boat to a metal grounding plate in contact with the water. Start with a solid half-inch-diameter steel or bronze rod elevated six to 12 inches above every other object on the boat.

8 hours ago, GOLDBUGGY said:

Water is a good Conductor of Electricity.

Pure water is in fact an excellent insulator.  Contaminants in water make it a conductor. 

Sorry, I'm just bored! 

3 hours ago, garyk said:

It is a huge windfall

You're obviously not an economist or a mathematician.  I think your 20K extra people having a lump sum in the bank for 3 months is a little overstated.

However, as a huge windfall for the banks, if you read the link provided by the BOT you will see that the figures are in billions even trillions of baht.

How much of a difference do you think it makes if (using your figure of 20K people) of 16 billion for 3 months over a year.

The real figures are of course, much less than that.  3,000 income letters as stated by the British Embassy.

Of course, putting it in your account it represents an absolute fortune, but then again you don't have trillions of baht passing through your account do you?

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Quite sure insuarance will claim act of god and not pay out

That doesn't actually happen.  Insurers do cover natural disasters and other non-preventable damage.

Acts of God being uninsured is an urban myth.

8 minutes ago, moontang said:

Many Japanese retirees here, many were here much before farang.  

I take it back regarding the Japanese but they are a little different to the retirees being discussed.

Quote

Northern Thailand is a popular retirement destination, with over 1,500 Japanese registered as residents there. In most cases, they plan to return to Japan after their adventure ends.

“I don’t want to be a trouble to the Thai people, so I plan to go back to Japan eventually,” one 76-year-old Japanese man said.

 

But in some cases, they overstay their visas after exhausting their savings and have no money to go back. In other cases, they can’t go back because of debt, work and relationship problems.

 

Thailand is said to be lax on immigration, which lures Japanese with complicated backgrounds. But since they tend to remain reclusive, it makes it difficult to find out where they live and how they are doing.

 

According to the consulate in Chiang Mai, about 20 people have died in each of the past three years, reflecting the aging Japanese population there. About 15 had died as of the end of April.

 

Some die alone and aren’t discovered until several days later. When their relatives in Japan are contacted, many refuse to claim the body, saying they “don’t want to have anything to do with it.”

Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/22/national/social-issues/thailand-popular-japanese-retirees-many-end-dying-alone/#.W900KdUzZEY

1 hour ago, garyk said:

Thailand is in a very good position, all they needed to do was figure a way to insure the 800K to be seeded in a Thai bank. The embassy letter was there ticket to a financial wind fall.

Your 'financial windfall' is based upon the embassies not issuing income letters.  In fact these letters are quite small in proportion.  The British Embassy issued only 3,000 per year.  I don't know the figures for the US and Australian.  Of those, some will not have the ability to deposit a lump sum or show an income.  If they can't meet those requirements then they may leave the country,  Those that deposit 800,000 in the bank are effectively putting their annual income into the bank in one go where previously they would have transferred money when necessary.

The end result is that those that leave is a net outflow of cash, those that prove income or deposit 800,000 in the bank doesn't affect the inflow/outflow of cash at all.  Annually that remains the same.

This 'new procedure' if it's verified by Thai immigration will cause a loss of cash into the country.

You should also take into account with your figures that a majority of expats here are working.  Japan, India and China for example, have no retirees in Thailand.  The same goes for Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam etc etc.

There is no windfall.

Even if those figures were correct (and they're way off), with TRILLIONS of baht flowing through the banks, do you think that our tiny contribution is going to make any difference or even be noticed.  Of course not.

5 hours ago, garyk said:

Thought this might be interesting to some here? Didn't have $hit to do today so here goes.. haha

 

China, UK, U.S., Japan, Germany, France, + rest of the world = about 435,669 expatriates in Thailand. Got this from Wiki (2010).

 

I divided that by 2 (just a guess on the number of retired expats in Thailand) 435,669 / 2 = 217,834.5 retired expats in Thailand.

 

Then I took that number and multiplied by 800K that needed to be seeded in a Thai bank.

217,834.5 x 800,000 baht = 174,267,600,000 baht / yr. into Thai banks. So about 174.268 billion baht / year.

 

I converted this into dollars so it would be easy for me to identify with.  174,267,600,000 / 32 = 5,445,862,500 U.S. dollars. So 5.445863 billion dollars / year.

 

Now I divided this by 4, because the 800K baht needs to be seeded in a Thai bank for 3 months. 5,445,862,500 / 4 = 1,361,465,625  U.S. dollars. So about 1.361466 billion U.S. dollars guaranteed in a Thai bank at all times throughout the year.

 

Now a investment of 5% / yr.  = 1,361,465,625 x .05 = 68,073,281.25 U.S. dollars / year. So the Thai banks would get a pay day of 68.073 million dollars / year profit.

 

So, if there is 217,834.5 thousand people on a retirement extension = 68,073,281.25 U.S. dollars / yr minimum. Or 68.073 million dollars profit.

 

Just say that was halved that again. 217.834.5K people x .5 = 108,917.25. So that would equal a yearly income to the Thai banks of 68,073,281.25 / 2 = 34,036,640.6 dollars / yr. Or 34.037 million dollars / yr.

 

If we halve it again 108,917.25 x .5 = 54,458.625 retirees. That would be about 17.018 million dollars / yr profit.

 

Of course this is just speculation on my part. I wish I knew the actual number of retired expats living here?

But, it shows there is a very good argument that these new rules will result in a very nice pay day for the banks.

 

Not to mention the 800K seed money will most likely stay in the banks and be drawn down during the year.

 

So, if there are 108.917 K expats in retirement here then the total(guesstimated) value to the banks would be. 1.089172499 billion baht / yr. pure profit guaranteed.

 

IMO what the government is doing is wanting a guaranteed monthly amount invested in a Thai bank, strictly to generate a guaranteed payday. 

 

Smart IMO, and nothing wrong with that if the numbers hold up.

Personally I don't think it has anything to do with the income letters, it is a scheme to generate cash flow. 

Nicely done too.

 

I accept that you were playing with figures.  However they are far from the reality.  For example, the Chinese are made up as follows:

Quote

About 74.8% came for employment such as white collar jobs, Chinese-language teachers and tour guides, while 21% came

for study and 4.2% to accompany their family. Some intend to return to China once they have made their fortune or succeeded in their endeavours.  

95% - employment and study and the rest accompanying their families.

You'll find similar breakdown of Indians and Japanese.

The majority of retirees are taken from the 300,00 or so from the west and even those are made up of people working, studying and other reasons.

The British Embassy stated that they only process around 3,000 income letters per year!

The theory about the Thai government/banks looking for large deposits is flawed:

Of the 2.8 mill foreigners living here, the European, US, Canada and Australia are less than 300,000 and many of them are working here. The rest are from Asia and choose to work here for a greater wage than they can get back home. These people invariably work to send money home to their families. Therefore of the whole 2.8 mill, the result is a net outflow of cash. I'm not forgetting the services they provide, just talking of cash.

The theory that the Thai government is pushing retirees/married expats to deposit 800/400K into the bank generating billions of baht into Thailand has not been thought through.

So we need to go back to primary school for some simple maths!

Case No. 1:
The person who up until now has been able to declare the legal requirement for income, and assuming he spends that in Thailand, will give the bank an annual deposit of 780,000 baht. If he needs now to switch to 800,000 in the bank then it produces an annual net deposit of +20,000 baht (for the first year only) as income deposits will no longer be there.

Case No. 2:
A person who has been able to satisfy the income required but has no means of getting his hands on a lump sum of 800,000 may be forced to leave the country. Effect of the banks - a loss of 780,000 a year.

Case No. 3:
A person who has been 'winging' it using false declarations or the use of an 'agent' and can't come up with the 800,000 will also be forced to leave. Effect on the banks - a loss of whatever his true income is.

Can you see where I'm going with this? Rather than the conspiracy by the Thai authorities to boost their bank deposits, this action will have the reverse effect not to mention the small effect we have on the economy.
 

Thai driving licences are valid in a host of countries who were signatories to the two relevant treaties.  They are valid in the UK for sure.  Technically, foreign licences, providing they have a photo and are in English, from those same countries are supposed to be recognised here,   but TIT!

9 hours ago, AlexRRR said:

Normally when men grow up they fine new past times....im surprised at your Age you still find snooker and darts appealing...

 

In Au BBQ times mean the Men off the house do the cooking over the griller....girls just do the salad.....few have pool tables here un less there left over from the 70's....swiming pools are more popular here and a dart board? gees haven't seen one in years...

 

Enjoy your weekend..

What planet are you living on.  It sure isn't earth!

Those figures are quoted on paperwork to satisfy the authorities but actual salary paid may be much less.  Whether you get the 50 grand or not, that is what you will pay tax on.

Had a drink with my policeman mate from immigration a couple of hours ago.  I said that it appears you can't take money for 'favours' any more.  No paying to get your extension approved etc.  His answer while laughing.  "Don't worry.  Everything is same.  Don't listen to newspaper reports".  That's pretty much verbatim.

So much for fear from above!

1 hour ago, garyk said:

With all due respect. 114 pages on this thread with only one piece of information. That is the American Embassy will stop issuing letters.

Personally I think it is disgraceful that TI has not responded to this in any way shape or form. 

Extremely poor way to do business, and a lack of respect for the expat community is appalling IMO.

 

My guess is that they're still figuring out how to respond.

3 hours ago, Pattaya46 said:

 

Are you sure it's (very) different for farangs ?

French embassy statistics says that average age of French expats in Thailand is (only) 40.5 yo

so clearly there is not a majority of them on retirement and in fact many are here working.

I did say in my original post that the US and British embassies count for the majority of Western expats.  Never mentioned any other nationalities.

I do believe the law states that the name has to have a meaning.  Also the name can't be of 'royals'.  That law is waived if one of the parents is a foreigner and is 'legally' the father/mother.

There is an excellent bike lane from Hua Hin to Pranburi.  Built 'Dutch' style with their own road away from the main drag.  Unfortunately, Thais being blind to signage, it gets used by M/cycles and the odd 4 wheeled transport, having forced open the width restrictions on entering.

5 hours ago, Pattaya46 said:

Why limiting to western expats ?

Expats from China, Japan & India also use these same methods,

and so sometimes an Embassy Letter to stay here,

and they are many more than expats of UK & USA.

The difference is the percentage of expats from those countries who come here to retire or are married to a Thai.  By a large majority, the Chinese come for study, investment etc.

Quote

About 74.8% came for employment such as white collar jobs, Chinese-language teachers and tour guides, while 21% came for study and 4.2% to accompany their family. Some intend to return to China once they have made their fortune or succeeded in their endeavours. 

I'm sure you can work out from that that 95% do not come for retirement and out of the remaining 5%, 4.2% accompany their families.

You'll find the same for Japan and India so my post stands.

No wonder the world laughs.