Meerkat

Ah, Topfield. The point I was trying to make was that the title of your thread was...er...100% wrong. Thai banks were not cheating as you surmise...

You still maintain that there is a "correct" rate which the banks conveniently ignore. I say tosh, there isn't. The idea that a bank is being unfair by not updating their rates online or otherwise is nonsense; as I already stated, it is up to the banks what rates they offer.

The rate which for instance you find on Bloomberg is not some gospel rate. It is a spread around a mid derived from the average of the bid/offer spreads of various brokers and banks in the interbank market. Trust me on this one - I've been doing it for over 15 years and the company I work for is one of the ones that provide that data for Bloomberg

Next, and arguably most important even if you continue to insist on believeing that there is a "fair" rate, is the concept of "spot". The prices for THB/USD on Bloomberg (ie the price at which the banks themselves deal), or any other currency pair are value "spot" - this means two valid business days following the execution of the deal. For THB/USD, that means that that if for instance SCB bought USD50m worth of THB from Citibank on Friday, neither counterparty actually receives the respective funds until Tuesday; inspite of Saturday being a valid business day in THB, it isn't in USD. That's just the way the market works I'm afraid.

So, you want to pop down to your bank to exchange cash for delivery now, or tell them you're happy to wait until spot before you get your money, same as they have to?

Geez Topfield.

All these negative threads.

You strike me as a glass half empty kind of fella.

As for transfering money abroad, well, these rules have been on the books for a little while now.

If these rules still exist ,please explain how our dear beloved honourable Acting PM managed to get two BILLION dollars, yes, $2,000000000 or eighty BILLION Baht 80,000000000

out of Thailand and into Singapore, will you.

I thought it was the other way around. Indeed, one of the reasons for the THB's strength was Temasek buying USD2bn worth of THB to pay for the share purchase...

Topfield, you seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of how FX markets operate. There is no "official" exchange rate in FX and a company is under no obligation to set any given rate. It is totally demand/supply driven as to how a bank wants to set its rates. If BKK Bank wants to only offer 20 THB per USD then it can do so; obviously it wouldn't get much business though. Banks are there to make profits for their owners ie the shareholders. It's exactly the same situation with interest rates. The overnight interbank rate for THB is 4.75%, but do you get that on your at-sight (ie overnight) bank account? No, of course not.

In the interbank market, trades are being done simultaneously at different rates too. You reckon it should be any different for the retail market? Of course not.

You make it sound like the banks are being "unfair" by setting the price of their goods as they see fit. They're not - get over it.

Can't give you an answer to your main problem, but I'd be surprised if HK demand you get a work visa for a short-term contract like that - bear in mind that in order to get the visa, you'd have to get an ID card as well (ie become resident).

Re the question about your wife. HK are absolute nightmares on that front. I commute between BKK and HK. The missus is Thai, but we met when she worked in HK (legit - with work visa etc). Now if she pops over to HK on a tourist visa she gets the three degrees every time she enters. The most egregious being last year when she'd been in HK all week and we decided to go to Macau at the weekend for a spot of golf. When we got back to HK we were in a hurry as we had to go straight up to the airport to fly back to BKK. Immigration held us up inspite of our protestations that she was only going to be in town for the length of a taxi ride to HKG. Upon presenting the onward tickets (well, the confo, as they were e-tickets) they finally relented after more than 20 mins deliberating amongst themselves.

Idiotic question from them after looking at the confo. "Why are you flying Business class?"

Quick-as-a-flash answer (couldn't help myself...). "Because there's no First on that flight."

If the U.S. has problems the whole world is in trouble.The U.S. rules the economic world,and is the only country that can stand on it's own. They aren't the richest country in the world by accident.

Er...we must be thinking about different USAs. The one I know about has a National Debt of over $8 trillion and is primarily funded by Asian governments - the largest of which is China.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13048272/site/newsweek/

Me too Rangsit based/Khlong Luang /Khlong 3 not far from Talad Thai ( the wholesale market )

Hey! That's where i live. how long have you been living there?

Over three years (about ) ..we were amongst the first to move into Preuksa 12 when it opened ..

We previously lived in Bangladesh for 4 years , we being the whole family .. Thai wife 2 Kids .

In fact my son was born in Bangladesh ...../ and my wife is from just outside of Khampangphet ...sorry spelling !!!!!!!! can`t say it properly either until I visit and have several glasses of the local brew ...

Another one in the area! Used to be in Preuksa 13 and still have a house there, but moved a few months ago to Passorn 4, just next to the entrance to Khlong 3 from the Rangsit-Nakon Nayok Rd. We're also looking at buying some land up in Khao Yai.

Tried to post a reply to your question but for some reason could not.

It would seem that the shop that built your computer installed a pirated (unlicensed) version of Windows XP. When you try and auto update on the MS site it runs a quick check to see if the serial number of your OS is valid.

There is no (legal) way around it so if you paid for a legit version you need to get onto the shop if you never its time for a bit of Googleing.

Odd. Exactly the same thing happened to me yesterday. Tried to get my daughter's PC back up to current spec and Windows Update spat at me that I may have a pirated version. It's an HP PC which was bought from HP here in Thailand with XP pre-installed. Also still have the original CD with hologram etc, so find it extremely suspect that I've managed to get shafted with a copy. Perhaps that's naivety on my part, but it's not like I picked it up from a dodgy guy in Pantip.

Other odd thing. I thought, what the heck, and tried to revalidate XP to a proper version (Microsoft gives you a prompt offering to let you pay $238 to "upgrade" your version to a "proper" one online). That failed as well because it wouldn't let me change my country from Australia. Australia? I've got nothing to do with Australia.

Hmm...its first foray into BKK driving was a bit of a joke.

We had to do the Rangsit-BKK Hospital run this morning and thought it would be a good time to try the Garmin out. It's a doddle of a drive anyway - straight down the Viphavadi tollway to Din Daeng, hang a left onto Din Daeng-Rama IX and you're pretty-much 5 mins from the hospital. Usually it takes us 35-40 mins - most of it is on elevated roads.

As we weren't in any hurry, we decided to see where it took us. First warning something was up was telling us to get off at Ratchadapisek instead of Din Daeng. Sure enough, we were dumped into some of BKK's finest traffic! It turned a 35min journey into a 70min one, all primarily because it wanted to ignore flyovers for ground roads.

On the return journey, we took our usual route, and just let the machine recalculate every time we took a "wrong" turn. Again, it was trying to route us at ground level rather than take the high roads. It was set for Fastest rather than Shortest route.

Still, no big problem. It certainly got us where we wanted to go, and I'd much rather have it in the car stuck in a traffic jam rather than my usual predicament of getting totally lost in a traffic jam.

On Mr. 'Screw's recommendation, I got hold of a 2720 today. Only tried it out for an hour or two this afternoon, but well-impressed - thank-you sir!

Living out past Rangsit, I haven't had the chance to try it in the Big Smog yet - that will be it's true acid-test.

One thing I wanted to ask...how does it cope with the elevated highways? It's set for "Fastest", rather than "Shortest" route, so hoping it won't be directing me to come off the toll-road to get stuck trying to take a futile "short-cut" through some obscure soi...

Now, the next thing is...how long do you guys reckon until we get real-time traffic information in Bangkok that can be slaved to the GPS? I've noticed big signs/electronic maps on some routes in town showing red/amber/green according to congestion. Would be fantastic to have that (and more) info pumped into the car. Not that it would probably make much of a difference, but a man can dream...!

Somewhere like Rangsit Klong 3 should fit the bill. 5km from Rangsit so easy to get on the expressway. We've got a place in Passorn 4 - 3 ensuite bedrooms and garden was about 7m baht. 20mins from the airport so perfect for me as I commute from HK. The developer was Preuksa...quite a well-known company that has tons of villages in the area with houses from a lot less to a lot more. Have a look at www.ps.co.th

Can you direct me to this place off the Din Daeng / Rangsit Express way ?..Where come off ?...directions then ?...Thank you ...It seems ideal.

Jon

As you're coming from town on the expressway, take the exit after the one for the airport (marked Rangsit) and join the Rangsit-Viphavadi road (ie the road underneath the tollway). Follow that and after a few more km you'll have to make a U-turn marked Future Park (the big mall). Immediately past Future Park you turn off to the left onto Route 305. Follow Route 305 and the entrances for Passorn 4 and then Rangsit Klong 3 are pretty-much exactly at the 5km mark, on the left.

Somewhere like Rangsit Klong 3 should fit the bill. 5km from Rangsit so easy to get on the expressway. We've got a place in Passorn 4 - 3 ensuite bedrooms and garden was about 7m baht. 20mins from the airport so perfect for me as I commute from HK. The developer was Preuksa...quite a well-known company that has tons of villages in the area with houses from a lot less to a lot more. Have a look at www.ps.co.th

That looks awesome! Does it bugger up the Fortuner warranty?

Can I get that system with a GPS fed to the front screen? Let me know and you got yourself another client if you want (subject to that warranty question).

I've played KK a few times; my place is in Passorn 4, so it's only a few km from home.

I really like it. As you say, it's not as flash as places like Lamlukka but I find it much more friendly. I'm not a fan of caverous clubhouses with no personality so KK is much more up my street (kind of reminds me of my other "local" course - Macau!).

The fairways are wide but with water on 17 of the holes, any wayward slice (er...guilty on my last outing there) will be punished.

PM me if you fancy a round there, or any other course on that side of town - I'm in LoS pretty-much every other weekend.

Concerning the flights, you might like it when you move to LA. Thai uses the new Airbus 340 fitted with the new Royal Silk class. No First on these flights, but it is a non-stop flight. Not bad. And since Thailand Elite gives you a Royal Orchid PLus gold card you won't be too annoyed to switch to Thai from Cathay.

Meant LOS as Land of Smiles...not LA! So still just a regional trek to HK (and probably only monthly).

... And since Thailand Elite gives you a Royal Orchid PLus gold card you won't be too annoyed to switch to Thai from Cathay.

Actually, I think you will be, and a plastic card isn't going to help. The two air carriers aren't even remotely in the same class. On the whole, Cathay is one of the world's best and most professional airlines. Thai is...well, a third world toy for local politicians that is unimpressive and unreliable.

Actually my experiences in TG J have been good - just not as good as CX. Not done TG F yet, but I admit they'd have a tough hill to climb to meet CX in that cabin.

I certainly wouldn't class TG as a third world toy.

I also wouldn't class CX as one of the world's best; I'd class it as the world's best.

Thanks to both of you for your quick responses - given me something to mull over whilst I'm stuck in the office on a HK holiday...

Filled in the form asking them to get back to me. Interesting that you said earlier the annual fee has been dropped too.

As far as the car/driver thing goes, yeah we could get a driver (already got 2 cars there) but the convenience is the thing. Mostly though, it's getting whisked through the queues that appeals. As I rarely have any checked-in baggage it should be a breeze. What's the process like on the way back out - similarly smooth?

The companion ticket deals are not so important, unless I take another plunge and switch my (very happy) allegiance from Cathay to Thai (TG doesn't usually have First on the HKG-BKK-HKG flights that suit my schedule and I prefer CX to TG in Biz).

I am on the golf course a couple of times a month, but that's just a bonus, not considered a reason to join.

Sad that I get the impression so many other people on TV would be gleeful if it folded though!

Thanks again for your views.

Well I've been tempted to go for it, but Taksin's "sabbatical" has made me nervous. Whilst the 1m baht is no sweat, I'd be a wee bit miffed if I only got 6 months out of it before it was rescinded!

As far as the benefits of the program go, as I currently commute between HK and BKK on a weekly or fortnightly basis, the time saved at the airport going in and coming out, along with the car to take me home, is worth the baht in itself.

The 5 year visa is a nice perk, but hardly necessary for my weekends.

I will be moving to LOS in a year or so (when I'll be doing the commute almost in reverse), and the business contacts would be useful.

The question is...do I take the punt that the scheme will let me get at least a couple of years' use?

Would be interested to what the 3 or 4 Elite members on TV would suggest. PM if you'd prefer.

Quite shocking...

Interested to see how they will bring down the inflation from 5.7% to 4.5% for the whole year 2006, especially with the rising Baht....

LaoPo

The premise that the inflation rate should decrease towards the end of the year would be mostly because the major oil rises of last year will be rolling off the numbers. As the "base" will be higher towards the end of the year, the rate of change from that base will appear lower.

The strengthening of the THB will have a deflationary rather than an inflationary effect.

Firstly, it means that Thai exports become more expensive abroad, leading to a drop in export demand thus reducing spending-power in Thailand.

Secondly, foreign imports to Thailand become cheaper - that USD100 gizmo you wanted to buy from the US at 40 THB to the USD would only cost you THB 3800 now rather than 4000. You would be "importing deflation".

When my Chinese ex and I were living together here in HK, she'd punish me by making me do the housework if I "came" before she did.

Thankfully my love-making was better than my ironing...

Probably a factor of suppply and demand more than anything else.

When we were building our kitchen last year I asked the missus if we should get a dishwasher. She replied "We already have one; the maid!" Good point, dear...

Thaiquila, here goes one for the Aussies. First of all you wanted more info on a person retiring on 5 Milio Baht. Invested in Australia at 6% (yes it is possible) that they can live on that. It comes to an income of around 25,000 baht a Month as interest or dividends. It is also equal to a single pension from the Government should you be on that. I know one 72 y/o in Pattaya that lives on this amount. He doesn't drink much and when he does he drinks only in cheap bars. Acommodation is 4,000 b p/m, lady about 5,000 b p/m which leaves him 16K p/m to blow. A man who does not eat and drink much can live as he does pretty well on that.

To your question, you need about 15 M to 20 M Baht to retire. That is to get yourself an income of 60,000 baht p/m for life. In Australia fixed interest rates can be got for around 6%. You can also purchase shares that pay fully franked dividends (meaning tax paid) which also pay up to 6%.

Taking 20 M Baht into consideration will give you about $700,000 AUD. You would only need between 1 M Baht and 5 M Baht to buy a decent property. Lets assume you buy a big expensive house for 5 M Baht, that will leave you 15 M Baht. If you invest that at 6% in Australia it would give you approximately 75,000 Baht a Month income. Tax would be low as the shares income is tax paid and if you went one step further and declared yourself to the Australian Tax Office as a Non Resident then you would only have to pay a flat 10% tax on your bank interest income. The shares income would not be taxed that 10% as they are fully franked and your investments would keep pace with inflation as the shares you own go up and the income from them will go up over the life of your investment, hope that helps.

You still seem to be ignoring the FX risk. If I can paste my reply to one of your messages on an earlier thread:

QUOTE(bmanly @ 2006-04-02 05:59:48)

My opinion is, why invest at 5.15% with BBL for a 10 Month term when you can invest in an at call account in a farang country like Australia or New Zealand and get 5.5%? I came back from NZ last week, the banks there were offering 7.4% on a 90 day term and 8% on a 2 year term which is even better. Of course for Thai Nationals they might not have a choice.

Hmm...if you'd bought THB 1m worth of NZD at the end of last year at 28.08, popped it in a 90 day depo at 7.40% and brought it back to THB at the end of last month (at 23.96), you'd have made a whopping...er...loss of THB 131,154! Similarly you'd have lost THB 65,000 doing the AUD trade at 5.50%. Those rates are the interbank rates as well; you'd never get near that in the retail FX market.

This is what so many people don't understand. Future FX fair-rates are simply a function of interest rate differentials. As soon as you transfer funds out of your "home" currency you're taking a punt on the FX; you might get lucky, but that's all it is.

If you really wanted to fully hedge yourself against adverse future FX movements, you'd basically have to either enter a forward FX trade, or buy an option. Guess what? The cost of those hedges will effectively bring you back to square one. Why? Because that's what interbank traders do day-in and day-out - whittling away at any fleeting arbitrage opportunity...

In short, if you are spending money in THB, you are better off saving in THB.

Got a similar set-up to you George. The moveable 7.5ft monster and the smaller "comms" dish and 3 Angel boxes. We've also kept UBC for the Thai audio/subtitles (mother-in-law would lynch me if she lost Animal Planet in Thai when she visits). So a total of 3 dishes (so far)!

I tend to keep the dish on Panamsat 7,10. The selection of sports channels on Multichoice (the South African network) is awesome, and I can still get most of the other stuff that UBC does...Disco, BBC etc.

I only tend to move the dish if I want to see the cricket in India (Insat) or TOC (NSS6 - excellent Thai news in English!). I haven't had the time yet to fully explore what's out there yet either.

Generally not had too many problems with the Angel Box. You can move your favourite channels up to the top of each satellite's programme menu so you don't have to go hunting round too much, although as you say, you do have to wait for the dish to move if switching sats, so try and find one sat with most of your programming needs.

Shame they don't make them like they used to...

I read your referenced post about FX rates. Although I have a basic understanding of how the markets work I am certainly not a trader. If I am reading the charts correctly it seems that the Chinese Yuan is undervalued relative the Baht and the US dollar. It also seems to me if you had an offshore currency account with one 30% in each currency (Baht, Yuan and US Dollar) that earned 4% interest that it would be some measure of security against fluctuations in the Baht. Am I correct or am I missing something?

Sure - you'd simply be spreading your FX exposure so it's a good thing. If you have access to banking in HK, HSBC does a good account called CombiNations which is a multicurrency account and allows you to bank in 10 currencies (including THB). Not sure about multicurrency accounts in Thailand though...

Latest revisions in predictions that I use. These are an average of a number of services. In the last year they have been running about one baht high.

2006 May 42.9

2006 Jun 43.9

2006 Jul43.0

2006 Aug 42.8

Interesting...outright forward FX rates from the interbank market as I write:

1M 38.92

2M 38.93

3M 38.94

4M 38.95

I don't know the expiry dates of the contracts you're looking at so I've put mine as months (i.e. the 1M contract is spot - 5/5/06 end date).

Also your May number shows an approximately 10.3% depreciation in the THB between now and May (again, as I don't know your contract expiry, I can't say if it's May 1, Spot 1M, or May 31), then it shows the THB fairly flat until August. Would be interested to know:

1. When did these companies factor in the 10%+ deflation? You say they've been about a baht high on average (I assume you mean a baht weaker). So they were showing a +/- 1 baht 39 rate for the first quarter of the year, then a sudden drop for the May rate? I'd love to know what vol curve they used to justify that drop, or was it watching pine-cones over election-day?

2. How did they derive 10% as the number where the devaluation stops?

3. They're not just showing one side of the price are they? I'd almost understand a retail 32/42 bid offer spread (yikes...Travelex style rip-off), but not a 42 mid. The prices I've quoted here are all mids. For a 38.90 mid I'd expect to quote something like 38.70/39.10.

I posted a very brief idea of how forward FX rates are derived on the other thread linked to by someone else above. I could go into it more, but I already do this all day long for a living...