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Meerkat

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Posts posted by Meerkat

  1. True, locals don't seem to slow down at all in a downpour.

    I think they speed up so as to get home faster.

    Best to pull over if it's really coming down, luckily at this time of year the really heavy showers are short lived..not so in October.

    Had a grandmother back home in Blighty who used to speed up when driving over ice for the same reason; wanted to get past the danger as quickly as possible... :o

  2. My opinion is, why invest at 5.15% with BBL for a 10 Month term when you can invest in an at call account in a farang country like Australia or New Zealand and get 5.5%? I came back from NZ last week, the banks there were offering 7.4% on a 90 day term and 8% on a 2 year term which is even better. Of course for Thai Nationals they might not have a choice.

    Hmm...if you'd bought THB 1m worth of NZD at the end of last year at 28.08, popped it in a 90 day depo at 7.40% and brought it back to THB at the end of last month (at 23.96), you'd have made a whopping...er...loss of THB 131,154! Similarly you'd have lost THB 65,000 doing the AUD trade at 5.50%. Those rates are the interbank rates as well; you'd never get near that in the retail FX market.

    This is what so many people don't understand. Future FX fair-rates are simply a function of interest rate differentials. As soon as you transfer funds out of your "home" currency you're taking a punt on the FX; you might get lucky, but that's all it is.

    If you really wanted to fully hedge yourself against adverse future FX movements, you'd basically have to either enter a forward FX trade, or buy an option. Guess what? The cost of those hedges will effectively bring you back to square one. Why? Because that's what interbank traders do day-in and day-out - whittling away at any fleeting arbitrage opportunity...

  3. The Thai Bhat in twelve months will be at 46 to one dollar.

    That is the general consensus of the finical markets and futures trading companies.

    This is not news to anyone who has subscriptions to currency trading companies.

    If this is true, why then is the 1yr THB outright forward middling at 38.94?

    Perhaps those of us in the interbank market should start subscribing to those currency trading companies you cite - we obviously don't know what we're trading...

  4. Don't know where 8% inflation has suddenly come from. The last number was 5.6%, down from the previous month's 5.9%. Indeed, strip out energy, and your core rate is only 2.7%. The energy component will gradually come off the headline number as the fuel hikes roll off the Y/Y number.

    The last time Thailand saw 8% inflation was 8/98.

    Now seeing as you can comfortably get between about 4.5% and 5.25% yield from THB Gov't bonds (depending on tenor), your real inflation rate drops off to between 0% and 1%, so all this talk about savings being eroded to nothing seems a bit overdone to me. Further interest rate hikes are expected, so that will have the effect of increasing bond yields and helping to contain inflation so expect that spread to improve.

    If you prefer to keep your money offshore, the USD 2yr treasury note will currently give you 4.75% as well; it's interesting to note that the 2yr THB/USD FX forward rate (ie the rate the market expects THB/USD to be in 2 years time) is trading at 39.35/39.38 so you could always ask your bank for a price (you won't get one that tight though), and hedge your future FX exposure.

  5. It worked the opposite way for us. At the time of the crisis we had a company loan in US Dollars at the time through a Thai Bank which was a preffered method in those days. The crash happened so our weath almost halfed over night and we owed in reality twice as much as we did the day before. All sorted now but it was not easy and it caused a fair amount of stress, heart ache and general missery for some time.

    Never take anything for granted now. :o

    Indeed. At least nowadays it is considerably easier (and cheaper) to hedge against such a move.

  6. Instead of Singapore, why not consider HK? HSBC has an account called CombiNations which allows you to manage 10 currencies (including THB and USD) from the same account. You get interest (albeit not much for THB) for each different currency and can freely exchange between them at excellent cross rates.

    http://www.hsbc.com.hk/hk/personal/invest/deposit/combi.htm

    Not sure about Singapore, but HK is also a USD clearing centre, meaning you can clear USD denominated cheques (including personal ones) in the same manner you can in the US, without waiting for weeks for them to clear.

    You'll probably need a mailing address over here though, although I'm sure there are easy ways of getting round it (a friend maybe?).

  7. The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level.

    Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI.

    Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday.

    NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book! :o

  8. We've been treated well by BKK Bank in Khlong Louang. Whilst we're not legally married, I showed them a copy of my contract (in HK) and they gave us a 10 year 60% mortgage on the spot. We make sure to give the girls there who helped us a liberal sprinkling of chocs/cosmetics now and again and they've told us we'll have no problems in the future either...

    As is usually the case when borrowing from the bank, you'll always get lent the money if you don't need it!

    We only took out the loan as the fixed interest rate was ridiculously cheap. As has been posted here, the loan reverts to a regular floater after 3 years (although we were quoted MLR+200bp so currently 8.75% rather than the 6.75% Sibeymai quotes), but seeing as we're paying the loan off at that 3 year period it's academic for us.

  9. From memory, and in addition to that above, you can be liable for duty if you subsequently sell your car within 6 months of bringing it in.

    Re the km/h to mph conversion - if the car is over a certain age, you don't have to worry about it. I imported what was a 6 year old Honda Beat to the UK from HK back in 2000 (not usually available in the UK - or HK for that matter) and didn't have to do any conversion; a standard MOT was all that was needed to make it road-legal. Miss that car...

  10. Based on prior discussions, I'm going to be in the minority, but I'd keep a lot of that in the US.

    Don't you pay tax on interest in the US? Why not open an account at somewhere like HSBC or StanChart here in HK? You don't need to be a resident, HK is a USD clearing centre (so you can clear USD cheques as easily as in the US) and they offer excellent spot rate spreads - certainly a lot tighter than the UK for instance.

  11. It is something that worries me. We took out a mortgage on our new place in BKK solely because rates were so ridiculously cheap. Off the top of my head we're paying about 3.6% for the first year, then 4.5% for the next 2, then it floats at MLR+200bp for the remaining 7 years. We don't need the mortgage, but at a fixed rate lower than 3m BIBOR (indeed the 10yr swap rate is trading around 6%), it's silly not to take it out. The crazy thing is that after the 3 year fixed term, there are no early-redemption penalties, so we'll just pay back the loan then. Similar with the new car. We're paying 2.79%! Again, we'll pay back the rest of the loan as soon as it bumps to a floating rate and the penalty reduces.

    What scares me is that many people may get into these deals without properly considering what happens when the rate floats. Assuming that rates stay the same (which I don't think they will), in 3 years' time, our mortgage rate jumps from 4.5% to a whopping 8.75% (MLR+200). It's at this point many people might get into trouble. And of course if that happens on a larger scale, it could affect the economy as a whole.

  12. Jsat just installed my system yesterday. A twin sat combo (one moveable, one fixed) and two Angel Box receivers. Should have done a third box, but hadn't bought the TV for the study (arrives tomorrow).

    So far so good - enjoyed being able to watch the Six Nations match in bed last night! Service before and during installation was very good - will post how I get on going forward.

  13. Splitter for sure..... either put the lines in right, if that dont work, sned it back and ask for replacement.

    Listen to your line too without the splitter.....could be line noise ( i.e cable issues ).

    Bear in mind that you'll need a filter or splitter for all the phones in your house, not just the one connected to the same socket as your router. A filter is the same as a splitter except only has one input rather than two. Just bought one yesterday from a TRUE shop - THB 120.

  14. Turbo timers are really only neccessary on the larger turbos like the ones in tuned Imprezas,Evos and other hi-performance cars that have been tweaked and are non standard.They allow the turbo to cool properly after use by keeping the turbine running on a low Psi until its cool enough.A wise choice if your turbo is large.Standard pick-up turbos dont need a timer because they are low psi.

    Great, that's what I needed to know. Cheers.

    Hmm...but the 'Tuner handbook recommends idling to cool the turbo too. From memory it's:

    Urban stop-start driving: No need - can safely shut the engine off straight away.

    Continuous 80km/h driving. Idle for 30sec before shutting down.

    Continuous 120km/h driving. Idle for 1min first.

    Not sure about the speed in the last bit, but can remember thinking motorway cruising speed when I read the book.

    If I can find a timer that won't bugger my warranty I'll have it fitted.

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