Rookiescot

1 minute ago, Tanomazu said:

Absolutely unlikely, given the massive economic interests Germany, France, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore all have in China.

 

Why would they hobble their economies to placate an American country that has shown it betrays its allies in a heartbeat? Makes no sense.

China is not the only market open to those countries either.

Those markets would be faced with an option. China or the rest of the world. Guess which way they are going to jump given they are democracies and China is not.

2 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

And China has plenty of foreign markets. Even without the US.

 

The US tried a trade embargo with very mixed results. Hobble Huawei? Okay, so Xiaomi becomes the worlds biggest phone company instead. The Chinese economy is like a Hydra, you take one head off and two grow in its place.

 

I very much doubt France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Italy, Spain, Singapore would follow US calls for a global boycott of China. After how the US, UK and Australia showed they will betray their allies in a heartbeat.

Of course they would. All those countries would side with the US. Its a democracy after all not a country ruled by a dictator. 

Just now, Tanomazu said:

Except the US tried that with Huawei and failed miserably. Even banned Huawei from the Google universe. Net result? Chinese phone maker Xiaomi overtakes Samsung and Iphone.

 

"For instance, US restrictions on vital chips and the use of key Google services has crippled Huawei’s smartphone sales around the world. But as it turns out, thus far the real winner in this instance is another Chinese telecoms company, Xiaomi. Recently labeled the “World’s Hottest Smartphone Brand,” Xiaomi sold more phones in June than Samsung and in the second quarter of 2021 jumped past Apple to become number two in world sales. "

 

https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/whats-up-with-huawei-and-whats-up-with-the-biden-administrations-endless-china-policy-review/

 

You seem to forget that China has markets all over the world, the US is just one market among many, the UK and Australia don't even matter at all in terms of markets for China.

 

 

Your domestic economy is not big enough to support itself. You need foreign markets. Trade embargo by the west mean economic collapse. 

4 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

It would be very nice if China's expansion could be checked in the South China Sea, indeed all over South East Asia. However, such a goal can not be accomplished with a silly Five Eyes, Three Eyes, AUKUS, or some such nonsense.

 

The only way to truly check Chinese power is to destroy it, to fight it. And as we saw in the Hindukush, the American's don't even have the stomach to take on stone age Afghan Taleban fighters. Their voters do not want American soldiers to die in Afghanistan, Taiwan or the South China sea. That is why American presidents from Trump to Biden wanted to withdraw the military from Afghanistan, they want votes.

 

American could easily bomb China. However, that would risk nuclear retaliation by China. America, for voter reasons, for self preservation, would never ever go to war with China. It would be insane.

 

So they are trying to project what they can't put in place, power on the ground. By calling on Australia to drive a few submarines around, maybe become a nuclear power down the line (which Australian voters would never go for I suspect).

 

Ultimately, China holds all the cards. It's economy is the world's strongest. It's population the world's largest. You can not really defeat China. They could hardly defeat Germany, which had far less people than China, far less economic clout. It's ludicrous.

 

All AUKUS is is simply a scaled back Five Eyes, an open declaration that the Anglos will spy on everyone else. It doesn't mean a thing. In real terms.

Now there's a thing. Within an hour of China trying to invade Taiwan (in their fishing boats) the western countries would immediately impose an embargo of ALL Chinese goods.

Chinas economy collapses.

Now your military are getting pumped and your economy is pumped. 

Go for it China. Give us all a laugh.

14 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

The largest and best semi-conductor companies the world are:

 

1. Intel (USA)

2. Samsung (South Korea)

3. TSMC (Taiwan)

4. SK Hynix (South Korea)

5. Micron (USA)

6.Qualcom (USA)

7. Broadcom (USA)

8. Nvidia (USA)

9. TI (USA)

10. Infineon (Germany)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_industry

 

I don't know if you noticed, the supply of chips in the US and the whole world is already interrupted, and we've seen no war of any kind.

Who makes Intels chips?

Heres a clue. Its not Intel.

16 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

A takeover of Taiwan plan would involve a blockade of the island and the bombing of key infrastructure (ports, runways, oil tanks, powerplants) that would paralyze much of Taiwanese activity within days. Second step would be a bombing of military outposts along the shore followed by a mass invasion of an army of hundreds of thousands of CCP soldiers sailing the Taiwan straight in a huge commandeered civilian fleet (fishing boats, cargo vessels, shuttles etc) along with their navy, with China maintaining A2/AD area denial of the region.

China's military is still no match for the US in a land war on neutral soil, but they would be fighting on home turf the type of war their whole military has been geared towards for decades now. The US Navy's edge in carrier groups would probably be denied by the threat of hypersonic missile swarms, and overall, China has the edge as they view Taiwan as an existential national goal towards which they are willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of soldiers, while the American public is war-weary and has no real stake in Taiwan.

 

In contrast, American presidents from Trump to Biden have shown they are more concerned about votes. And their voters in the US do not want American soldiers to die in Afghanistan, Taiwan or the South China Sea. There is no point in having a superior military if you don't have the will to use it. And from Vietnam to Afghanistan, we have seen time and time again that the Americans are not willing to use it.

 

Ultimately however, your point is moot, I doubt very much China will be gearing up to invade Taiwan any time soon. Xi Jinping still has to consolidate his hold in China. The recent war on the media is because it is dominated by his rivals, and he wants to strengthen his hold in China. Much more likely is that China will not be goaded into doing something rash over Taiwan, despite its mad dog rhetoric, which is really for home consumption.

That is the best laugh I have had in a long time. An invasion by fishing boats? Swarms of hypersonic missiles? 

Absolute fantasy.

1 minute ago, steven100 said:

that's real handy in a war      !   lol

Not armed with nukes. Please be less selective with your quotes.

3 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

Because they're using the scaling back of Five Eyes to Three Eyes as a political propaganda weapon, obviously. They will portray America, UK and Australia as the agressor, it suits them very well. They will  not relish the prospect of Australia becoming a nuclear base, clearly. But all of that was already in place, or on the cards before. AUKUS does not change a thing really.

 

If you seriously think that the US, UK or Australia will push back against Chinese aggression for real, say if the Chinese would invade Taiwan, I think you're living in La La land. Clearly, we have seen with Afghanistan that the Americans will run and betray their allies even when it has real security concerns at stake, America is imploding really, domestically and militarily.

 

If a real aggression by China against Taiwan would happen the US, UK and Australia would do precisely nothing. Because they know any politician that risks American, UK, OZ soldier's lives for say Taiwan, or even more ridiculous, the South China Sea, would soon be voted out. Their voters do not want war.

 

And AUKUS is not about war, or resisting  Chinese aggression, AUKUS is about the economic interests of the US defense industry, which is playing up the Chinese threat to get more orders for drones etc. You can all rest assured, the US will do a runner again, before they let US soldiers die for Taiwan.

Do you honestly think China is a military match for the United States?

Good grief you would be lucky to even successfully invade Taiwan. It is no easy matter.

You might take a couple of islands but that would be it. 

23 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

Usual nonsense from the white English speaking aggressors. Agression, agression agression and then blame the defendant for wanting to defend itself. Let China have her own system, even if you don't like it.

How would you feel (if you were Thai) if China ringed Thailand with hundreds of military bases and told Thailand to change its system and economy to a communist one? 

Ah so you call western nations white English speaking aggressors?

Bit racist that aint it?

China can have its own system. It just needs to cut out the aggressive policies it has towards everyone else. 

4 minutes ago, Almer said:

Better put it on fuel then everybody pays.

Not sure poor rural Thais could handle 5 baht on fuel price hike.

How about they put 5 baht on everyones road tax and then the government pays the companies a set amount every year and they get rid of the tolls altogether?

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

All 6 countries laid claims on the maritime issue. It is still on-going negotiation between the concerned countries. Been hyped and used as political fodder by US up as though it will lead to a big China invasion. Islands were reclaimed rocks in China territory. Himalayas was a border skirmishes between India and China that lasted few days. 

Its still ongoing because of Chinese aggression and building fake islands in other countries territorial waters. 

Why not just say "We were on a jolly and we used the companies van. We are human after all and we just wanted a break".

2 minutes ago, Pravda said:

Does anyone know what happened to CANZUK alliance? I feel Canada is always left out.

Canada only has diesel electric subs. This agreement was for the supply of nuclear powered (not armed) submarines. 

For all that I like Canada (I think its a fantastic place with great people) I'm not sure how much expertise they would have brought to this.

18 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

To be fair to the author, nuclear submarine are inextricably linked with nuclear weapons. All 6 countries in the world that possesses nuclear submarines have nuclear weapons. Nuclear submarines powered with the same enriched uranium that is used in bombs. You don’t acquire nuclear submarines just to cruise around.
 

Australia has forfeited their status as a country linked to the Treaty of Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

 

I personally think it’s a wrong policy as their alliance with US is strong and can provide the nuclear deterrent. Australia action runs contrary to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this part of the world. Make this region unsafe against nuclear mishap.  

So why has China not been more proactive in preventing North Korea from obtaining nukes?

1 minute ago, TKDfella said:

I have only read about this in the news but I don't know any of the real details so am not qualified to state an opinion on AUKUS. But I really don't see what Thailand officialdom is concerned about as something like this was bound to happen at some point. The countries involved surely will have had thoughts that Thailand has been close with China and would have hardly 'consulted' with the Thai gov. on the issue. I read over the w/e that Pres. Xi apparently communicated that he wanted the 're-unification' of Taiwan to happen during his time rather than leave it to the next generation, so one wonders what will happen to expats here if war breaks out over this.

We might need to slaughter the livestock (goldfish) and seek shelter in the nearest bar.

I would wager the people having such an issue waiting would have been OK if the reason was to get 2000 baht rather than a vaccination.

Is it wrong that people have to wait like this for a vaccination?

Yes it is.

Is it wrong that people behave like this while waiting for a free vaccination?

Yes it is.

These are abnormal times. People need to understand this is not the time to behave in an abnormal manner.

5 hours ago, chalawaan said:

Chinese interests in those places amount to commercial interests. It's actually a lifeline, because they'd be swamps otherwise.

Now I'm not a CCP apologist, but the Chinese authored art of war says know thy enemy. The Chinese are business focussed, they are not bent on occupation, because it makes little economic sense. The Roman empire was financially ruined by its Imperial costs. And America is heading the same way with a virtual empire of trillion dollar bases, and carrier groups.

 

China is learning from Afghanistan and Vietnam. They make deals, not war. They let the Taliban get on with it, so long as they don't get in the way of China getting its way. 

 

Thailand, as you must know if you live in the major cities, is ridiculously overbuilt. Chiang Mai is chock full of empty middle class villages and tower blocks. Even if they were built as drug money laundries, my guess, its unsustainable having them sit abandoned. 

 

The positives of price rises and associated commerce and human activity is exactly what Thailand desperately needs, not just to get back on its feet, but to deal with the impending baby shortage and middle income trap.

 

And the middle class here are significantly ethnic Chinese in similar ratios that White Australia is ethnically British. 

 

Having said that, theres considerable tension in Singapore, where local Chinese resent Mainlanders driving up prices, but omelettes, and eggs and all that. 

 

Thailand cannot go on being this corrupt yappy little dog thinking its a global great dane unless it behaves more like the other big dogs in the neighbourhood.

 

Thailand has vast potential, as does the Philippines, its the criminal political dynasties in both states that are the problem, not the organised, cashed up regulation loving Chinese from China and elsewhere in the region.

 

 

 

OK so you think its a good idea for Thailand to follow the Myanmar, Laos and Cambodian model of allowing Chinese government/companies to buy up huge areas of land and turn them into a Chinese enclave within those countries?

6 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

Fresh water is not a good conductor. If one wishes to neutralize/discharge lithium cells it is necessary to add salt to the water.

Distilled water is not a good conductor owing to the lack of impurities.

Do you think that fire truck is filled with distilled water?

7 hours ago, robblok said:

Unfair IMHO, the Aussies sold them. Should have blocked it then. If you do want to take back control fair market price must be paid.

 

I get the anti China feelings, i don't like them either but fair business practices should remain.                     

Normally I would agree but given how China has behaved towards Australia then I think the gloves are off.

2 minutes ago, xylophone said:

That's an interesting point........ but do local winemakers actually pay "massive tax"?

Probably depends on which familly they are in.