AussieBob18

2 hours ago, Samuel Smith said:

Could you please share this dentist's name & clinic.  Agree with you about root canals.  I also think some insist on crowns when a filling will do.

Recommended Clinic in Chiang Mai:  https://www.dentalworldchiangmai.com/home-eng.html

https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Dental+World/@18.7804983,98.9917941,19.08z/data=!4m8!1m2!2m1!1sdentist!3m4!1s0x0:0x6145ea5dbbec613a!8m2!3d18.7808411!4d98.992437

56 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Because Politifact disagrees with you:

 

????????????

Be wary of the root canal scam in Thailand.  Maybe it is really needed for you, but it seems they just add it as a matter of course for anyone with the need for a crown/big filing. I had it diagnosed for a crown I wanted done at a very reputable place in Chiang Mai and I refused - they would not do the crown without the root canal treatment so I walked out (I have had a lot of crowns done - decided to stop the 3-5 year filling cycles).  Went to another dentist (trained in Aust) and root canal scam was never mentioned.  Did you pay for XRays and get them? Take them to another dentist and ask what they think is needed - dont mention root canal.  If they say you need it - ask exactly why and where that shows on the xray. If it is true then you probably need it - or after the crown the tooth pulp/nerve will rot. 

Look at the dentist and where were they trained - big indicator of quality.  Make appointment for that dentist - do not accept whoever they give you.  Plenty of good dentists in Thailand - many are well trained and many have been overseas. Check websites and maybe even walk in and look at their credentials on the wall.  No credentials - dont use them.

But but but - in California guns are banned arent they?

And I know it is illegal in all of USA to make a 'ghost gun'.

Oh wait - the liberls say banning them will work anyway.

Yes thats right - the Govt bans them and 100s millions of them just disappear.

Confiscate them? Then there will be a lot more people killed.

The USA cannot become like UK/Aust etc. by introducing a law banning gun ownership/usage.

And besides, it would take a change of the Constitution - and that aint gonna happen.

Take a look at Switzerland - guns are owned by many - very few 'mass shootings' and gang killings and suicides.

Maybe there is an answer there that would work in USA.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/switzerland-gun-laws-rates-of-gun-deaths-2018-2?r=US&IR=T

It is not the red-neck alt-right that are killing others with guns.

It is mainly troubled white male youths with mental issues, and troubled black/hispanic youths in gangs.

PS - Not one mass shooting killer was a member of NRA - and most are 'democrats/liberals'. 

Economics 101 - Parts A and B.

1.  What goes up too fast and too far, must come down fast and far;

2.  When the proverbial hits the fan, the best place to be is behind the fan and not in front of it.

5 minutes ago, samran said:

 

Probably the only two economic literate and intelligent posts on this entire thread which is littered in self interested 'me me me-isms' from people who moved country and didn't take into account currency variations.

 

The fact is, Verathai would wipe the floor with about anyone moaning on this thread. And he'd do it in better English too. Those who think he's doing the bidding of Prayuth also know nothing about the dynamics of the BOT and the government of the day, the BOT being probably the only stubbornly independent organisation within the Thai government.

 

To say he hasn't noticed the issue is <deleted>. Anyone following this debate knows that the BOT is watching it, but as others said, what really can you do. The same clowns who move to Thailand to escape 'nanny states' all of a sudden want him to intervene to make there pensions go further. Talk about hypocritical.

 

The problem is, the central bank rate is already low. Lowering it any more will have minimal impact. You don't devalue your way to prosperity.

 

And to make rash statements isn't part of any central bank governors remit, so asking him to do any more than he is doing publicly is a foolish request. 

 

Are Thai companies and individuals benefiting from a high baht? Probably and they'd be stupid not to. Investing overseas - and borrowing baht domestically at low interest rates to fund these expansions - makes sense, and the capital outflows, such as they exist, help alleviate the pressure on a stronger baht. So you can't be moaning about the fact that people are taking advantage of it and not recognise the benefits it has on not making the baht even stronger.

 

That the government is incompetent is another issue not related to the BOT. Anyone who's ever been for a meeting there will know they aren't a bunch of dozers.

 

IMHO, a strong baht is a good thing for Thailand right now, and I suspect the BOT know this. Post AFC, Thai companies have gotten addicted to a weak baht to support their export industry. Whether that be manufacturing or tourism. Its ultimately led to laziness and low productivity grown as they've been able to muddle through and get value not through any real innovation, but due to a cheap currency. Government hasn't done anything to encourage anything differently. Education and vocational skills training is still lousy.

 

A protracted period of 2-3 years of strong baht will make domestic businesses focus and either get better, or wither. Export focused businesses, if they get through this patch, will genuinely be globally competitive as they will have restructured and not be reliant on the weak currency to make their sales for them.  As it should be. What will be left will be stronger and more productive economy.

 

There is merit in what you are saying, but you are seeing the silver lining in some very dark black clouds. What you advocate could happen in the flexible and professional export and tourist industries that exist within many western countries. But I see very little evidence that those very industries in Thailand, and the Govt organisations that direct and support those industries, have anything more than a rigid 3rd world mentality. They will not be able to respond positively and they will drive their businesses to achieve the same or better incomes, doing the same thing they have been doing for generations - and then they will shut down when that fails and blame the world economy. 

4 minutes ago, Five and Nine Bkk said:

Unfortunately there is not much a central bank can do. Currencies are driven by balance of payments and the capital investment in Thailand is massive with the trade conflict between China & USA. Not great for those of us in the tourist industry - Expect another 18 months minimum, if Thailand's government stays intact.

The Thai Junta Govt put in place policies to keep the Baht high - such as the amount of Baht allowed to be removed from the country and other 'controls', how much the BOT actually sells the currency the keep its value down, setting the reserve interest rates, and a lot of other policies.  This was done by the Junta for many reasons including paying for military purchases, for infrastructure projects provided by China (through rich Thai family/friends), and for the purchase of overseas goods and proeprty by themselves and their elite supporters, and other reasons.  It is only because it is no longer a Junta 100%, and he probably wont be shot, is that the Head of the Reserve Bank is speaking out about it.  The Junta has forced the Baht way too high and it will cause a crash eventually - he knows it and he is saying it.

If anyone thinks that what these two graphs show below is sustainable or realistic - then they have no real idea about economics and currency exchange rates:

On 11/16/2019 at 11:48 AM, cornishcarlos said:

Here you go champ, can rent my little shack in Chaiyaphum for 100 baht a night.. There's no nightlife, no crowds, come to think of it there's not much of anything !! But you'll be able to practice your Thai and might get lucky with a massage ??

String your hammock up on the deck and listen to the rain ????

Dont forget to bring the mosquito netting and lots and lots of bug sprays ????????????

The Head of the Central Bank of a country that is extremely reliant on its GDP and economic growth through Tourism and Trade is worried that the Baht is far far above historial levels as compared against all the worlds top currencies.

I never would have thought that there was anything wrong with the Thai economy - if I believed all the Thai apologist replies myself and so many others have got in response to our 'negative' statements about the Thai economy. 

The Thai economy stats are fabricated and the Baht is at an unsustainable level - they are both going to crash - it is inevitable.   

7 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Disagree with your theory that every movement by Australians into and out of every foreign country is monitored by Australia.

Australia does have a movements data base that records all travel into and out of their country, and some other government departments have access to these details - including CL. These movements do record flight numbers making it possible to see where a departing passengers port of disembarkation is, but it does not keep tabs of everywhere someone goes after that. An expat living in Thailand for instance who travels frequently around the region does not have those travel movements recorded by Australia.

Obviously, if a person is under investigation for a serious matter, some clues of their travel may be found in airline or other countries computer records, but there is no universal monitoring system. Details may also be found by examining the passport 's cachets on next arrival home, or a request for local movement details could be made to other countries.

 

I think we are in 'violent agreement' ???? I was referring to all trips from Australia to any destination and when re-entering Australia. Once an Aussie then enters another country, it is only certain other countries where their next departures and arrivals into are 'systematically' recorded and logged into the Australian database.  As more and more countries introduce electronic systems, then the ability of Australians to 'disappear' while overseas will become harder when using airline flights - land borders are another issue.  This was going on for a while and was 'ramped' up as a security measure across a lot of western countries, and it is being forced/encouraged into more and more developing countries like Thailand. 

The r

4 hours ago, moojar said:

 

I am in the same situation as yourself and we decided after many years of living in Thailand after I retired, to return to Australia and setup an 'abode'.  We now live in Australia and visit Thailand 2-3 times a year, and we will continue to do that until I qualify for the pension.  But even after I get the pension, we will not spend too long in Thailand each year afterwards, because as long as we stay 'resident' in Australia and only 'visit' Thailand, the wife gains additional yearly qualifications for her pension portability. Plus of course we both maintain our access to all the other benefits of living in Australia - especially the medical services if/when something goes wrong with either of us as we get older.  

The reason no one can tell you the answers is because there are no answers.  CLink can and does review each and every application on a case by case situation - they use guidelines and precedents to establish their decisions.  So there is no minimum or maximum time you can be away from Australia and be declared to 'reside' in Thailand. Unless otherwise advised, the ATO decides most Aussies are a non-resident for tax purposes after 2 years of living away from Australia.  CLink can decide that immediately after you left Australia that you no longer 'reside' in Australia.

What I think you should do is review your plans to be a 'nomad' and have no 'abode' in Australia and travel to Thailand a lot, particularly if you own any property in Thailand. In order to show CLink that you reside in Australia (leading up to and when you apply for the pension), you need to establish and maintain an abode in Australia.  If your plan is to move permanently to Thailand after you qualify for the pension and you have portability (yourself and your wife), then you need to show you both reside in Australia leading up to when you apply and show that you intend to stay in Australia too.  Portability is getting hgarder to achieve and being a nomad who spends most of the lead-up years in Thailand is likely to be a cause for concern to CLink.  And that is the catch 22 - as long as you show you reside in Australia and have no intention of living overseas before you get the pension, then after approval you can leave Australia and reside 100% overseas after you get the pension.  

What we intend doing and why I returned here (and wife migrated) is to ensure we can stay living in Australia 'permanently' and going forward we will be 'visiting' Thailand each year.  How long we visit each year will depend on many things, but that is our plan.  Leading up to the pension being approved, I believe that up to 3 months at a time is fine.  And after getting the pension I believe that up to 6 motnhs is fine.  And if you only stay in Australia for 1-2 months and then go back again, then that would probably be a problem I believe.  But all that is only my belief - there are no hard and set rules. 

In the future there is likely to be an ever tightening reduction in the ability of Australians living overseas to receive the full pension.  Will that '2 years' probation/penalty period become 3 or 4 years? Maybe.   Will they reduce pension payments after 6, 12, 18 months away from Australia, as they do now after 26 weeks? Maybe.   Will they make changes that are best able to be 'managed' to best meet our plans if we remain residents in Australia - definitely. 

Ownership of property and maintaining all the normal things that one does when living in Australia is the key.  Is there any difference between someone who is on the pension and resides in Australia and each year goes on a 3-6 month trip in Australia, versus someone who is on the pension and resides in Australia and goes on a yearly 3-6 months trip overseas?  I believe that the answer is No - as long as they do not set up a residence overseas and always go to that residence.

There is nothing yet I have seen in Australia since we moved back here that has convinced me that the Fed Govt is going to give more money to pensioners who live overseas.  And there has not been any indications to me that say they are going to make it easier to do that.  In fact all I have seen indicates that they are going to make it harder and harder and pay out less and less.

Likewise, there is nothing yet I have seen in Thailand that has convinced me that the Thai Govt is going to make it easier for older Expats to live in Thailand.  In fact all I have seen indicates that they are going to make it harder and harder and harder.

Unless something drastically changes it is clear that living in Australia and visiting Thailand each year is the best course of action for both myself and my Thai wife, both before we get the pension and afterwards.  May I suggest that you consider if this course suits yourselves.  Time changes all things, but to sell up and 'go nomading' seems to me to a problematic course to charter through the ever choppy and reef littered seas of the CLink pension eligibility rules.  Maybe look at setting up a cheap abode, and then go nomading from there each year.  There is no rule about how good or expensive an abode has to be - I know a couple that bought a 1 bedroom apartment in Sydney over a year ago (secure and safe), and they are still tarvelling around Australia (getting the pension) - last I heard they were near Rockhampton somewhere.  In fact where I live now, there are many couples doing the same thing for 3-6 months at a time - we are the only couple going to Thailand each time - one bloke does go and stay with his Thai GF for 3 months a couple of times a year. 

3 minutes ago, stevenl said:

As you article says, he fired the political appointees, not the career foreign service personnel. Big difference. And they received a grace period, see your articles, as was custom until Trump came in. Grace period makes sense so replacements can be readies, something Trump did not need obviously.

You have a serious issue seeing Steven. Both Obama and Trump gave them notice as of their inauguration days.

One of the better pieces of advice I got was to have 2 bank accounts - 2 seperate banks.  Use one for all the main stuff and keep about 50K in the other one for 'problems'.  

One day we were on holidays at a beach resort and I tried to withdraw money from an ATM.  Something went wrong and the bank closed the account for 'my safety'.  But the local branch could not help me - they said I had to go back to Chiang Mai where I opened the account.  Bought the guy - who had very strongly told me to open another bank account not long before we left - a long lunch when we got back into town a week or so later.

On 11/15/2019 at 6:58 PM, Skallywag said:

I can see 10-20 years from now people on ThaiVisa asking about how to get their sex-bot to work after it "codes" out or the remote wont work 555 . Am definitely an analog guy living in a digital world 

20 years !   That long - <deleted> ☹️

11 minutes ago, Old Croc said:

I would think only the receiving country would be able to give a good idea about numbers of arrivals based on citizenship.

DFAT would have no way of knowing every country a traveller visits when touring. There's no universal movements data base yet. (I think!)

Yes they do. Right down to the individual person and the country they enter and leave - if they use their Aussie Passport for the flights and when entering and leaving.  And thios is reported to CLink and CSA (and others) depending on what database you are in (or watchlist you are on).

19 minutes ago, Old Croc said:

Not coming down on the side of TAT but I think the DFAT numbers are also inaccurate.

From what I can ascertain they are based on the number of views their Smart Traveler site gets for each country.

 

You are right - my bad.   I looked in more detail and the actual number of visdits to Thailand was 565,300 - much closer to the TAT numbers.   Less Aussies have visited than the 800K in the previous two years, but not as big a drop as I first thought.  

Have owned many TVs over the years - Samsung, TCL, HiSense, Panasonic, LG, Aldi, etc etc.

Last I heard TCL in USA is manufactured there, and is much better than the TCLs the rest get from wherever.

The cheap models are cheap for a reason - picture quality and support/service being the main ones.

The larger the screen the better quality you want - small cheapies are fine.

Play a genuine 4K movie on a cheap big screen and the picture will just not be great - depth of colour and black tones in particular.  The 'better' brands include very good software and hardware components for picture rendering.  But 'genuine' OLED TVs are the next big thing - but too expensive right now.  If you can get a good brand/model cheaply then go for it and wait 2-3 years - otherwise get a cheapie and wait.  Top end OLEDs will come down in price eventually - they are the bees knees when it comes to the future of direct and streaming vids/movies/TV in 4K.  Dont waste money on 8K - that is so far off as to be ridiculous - marketing <deleted> and best avoided.    

Over the years I found that LG and Samsung offer the best models in terms of quality and support. Buyers tip - wait for a new model range to be released or about to be released, and then go find last year's models on sale - but be quick - so is everyone else ????

How to massively increase medical treatment tourism.

Thailand will definitely become the world's greatest 'hub of dopes'.

1 hour ago, Old Croc said:

Some interesting stats from DFAT.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/dfat-receives-48-000-emergency-calls-as-overseas-trips-reach-all-time-high-20191118-p53bm5.html

No prizes for guessing where most Consular assistance was provided!  "Nearly 900 cases in Thailand"

I found some very interesting stats about Aussie tourism to Thailand.

According to DFAT, 247,000 Aussies visited Thailand in 2018-2019 (1 July 2018 to 30 June 2019).

Now given the very rigorous and modern systems in place in Australia, I am certain that figure is accurate.

But according to TAT, there was 574,762 Aussies visiting Thailand in Jan to Sept 2019.

TAT also claim that 801,637 Aussies visited Thailand in 2018.

Mmmmmmmmmmm - maybe my maths is wrong, but something doesn't quite add up ????

I wonder if TATs figures are also drastically wrong about tourist numbers from other countries too - just asking ????

Quote:  ".......driven mainly by increases in private and government final consumption expenditure and investment."

I bet that the vast majority was Government expenditure and investment - all paid for by debt/loans - with little real private expensitures.  They are trying to make it look like there is growth, but all they are measuring is their own expenditures.  They even admitted it when they said that the recent 1000 Baht rebate scheme was done to increase economic growth figures. 

There is only so much smoke and mirrors that will work, before a financial storm comes and blows it all away, leaving the truth about the Thai economy - it is shrinking (IMO). All this false economic growth fulled by more and more expenditures by Govt will eventually bite back.  IMO it is just a matter of time and the longer the 'correction' takes, the harder the bite will be.

When the Thai Baht crashed in 1997 it lead to a financial crisis in SEAsia.  This time round, the other regional economies are in a much stronger position, and I dont see Thailand taking anyone else down this time - mainly only themselves. 

Wonder if they have all been cooked and eaten by now.