jas007

The "job" pf the stock market is to separate as many people as possible from their money. And one thing you can be sure of: as soon as "everyone" thinks one particular thing is going to happen and they bet accordingly, that one thing will not happen. The market also moves money from impatient people to the patient people. Did Warren Buffet say something like that? My guess, from looking at all the red in the stock markets around the world during the last day or two, is that the world financial markets aren't going to collapse. Quite the contrary. We could be at the beginning of a new bull leg up, thanks to all the cheap money being injected into the banks and into bonds.

The White House denied the claim and the markets pulled back, but we didn't see a rout like many people were predicting. Instead, it was up and down all day. After hours, it's up again. All green on what I watch, except for Thai baht which has strengthened a tiny bit against the dollar. Anyway, Trump doesn't like "fake news." He'll take every opportunity he can find to call them on it. As for getting out of the market six months ago? You missed some major gains, I think. That's the problem with trying to time the market. You can miss some of the best gains you'll ever see, and if you miss those you don't do so well, long term, if you ever get back in. I had one stock that was up more than 20X over the past few years, so I took a small bit off the table on that one on which I had to pay long term capital gains taxes. Otherwise, I haven't sold a thing. 99.999 percent of my net worth is fully invested and will stay that way, regardless. If the world doesn't end, I win, longer term. If the world financial system collapses or the world ends, what does it matter? Either way I don't have to worry. Remember the famous line from "Risky Business"? "Every once in a while you have to say What the ....." Miles advice to Joel about taking risks and seizing opportunities. Anyway, that's what I say, as so far, it's working.

I think you confuse being "anti-American" with the willingness of the Chinese people to put up with continuing financial chaos based on internal Chinese policies. At the end of the day, they're Chinese and live in China. They know full well who is causing their problems, and it isn't Donald Trump. Anyway, we all get to find out. If there's a war over Taiwan, all bets are off. Otherwise, I think China blinks first.

Consider the source.

Just sit back, watch the chaos unfold, and maybe learn a thing or two. Right now, China is probably in the process of dumping some US treasuries. That's their little fit about Trump and the fact that they might have to compete on a level playing field. Anyway, that's why we saw an increase in the US 10 year bonds today. Can the Fed do something about that? Absolutely. Will they? Absolutely, if things start to get out of hand. So far, Powell is just posturing for political purposes. But never forget, the Fed's supply of money is infinite. They can buy it all if they want, with the world reserve currency. And at this moment, there's no other currency in the world that can replace the US dollar in terms of liquidity. No way. That's just some people's fantasy. At least for the next five years or so, the dollar will continue to be in demand around the world. As for the "indoctrination" of the Chinese people? You've been reading too much propaganda. By and large, the Chinese people aren't doing so well right now, economically. Their real estate markets are crashing, stores are closing, people aren't spending money like they used to, and people are losing their jobs. And many of them are no fans of the Chinese Communist Party. Long term, China isn't going anywhere. I agree, they'll be around, regardless. But that does not mean that China is holding the winning cards right now. Maybe they'll go to war over Taiwan? That would make trouble for Trump, for sure. The more likely scenario? They drop their retaliatory tariff.

I agree, 100%. especially for a novice trading with little capital. Is it possible to make money as a novice trader? Sure, especially over the short term. But it's almost impossible to beat the market and the market makers, long term. Those guys hedge their bets. They control the market, but they also can't lose because of how they hedge their bets. Sort of like the casinos. The house never pays back 100%, on average. Take a simple example like a slot machine that pays 98%, over time. A person can walk into a casino, sit down at a slot machine, and within 10 minutes hit the jackpot. That can and does happen. But if that same person sits there long enough, reinvesting those same winnings, it's just a matter of time. The house will take their money. So, there's nothing wrong with long term investing in a basket oof stocks. But the key is "long term." even if you don't hit the jackpot, you're likely to still have something, long term. Better than losing.

It's about more than just the actual tariffs. That's why they use the formula they do to determine the tariffs. They want to address extraneous factors, like currency manipulation. That may seem like a joke, but there's some merit to it. I think every nation is guilty of that, to a degree, even the USA.

If you look, you can see all the markets and the news and the oil prices and anything else you want to look at in real time. And when the news flashed about Trump's China threat, the market did reverse a. little, but it didn't tank by any means. The markets are bouncing around all over today, but much of what's going on probably doesn't have much to do with Trump's China threat. The Wall Street people know better than to overreact to that kind of talk, and those are the people running the market.

Again, don't blame lower oil prices. Blame the overall economy. Do oil prices affect banks and oil stockholders? Yes, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to consumer spending and manufacturing. That's the real economy Find me a consumer that doesn't do better with lower oil prices. Find me a manufacturing firm that doesn't do better with lower oil prices. You probably can't.

I don't think so. Lower oil prices don't "destroy wealth," except maybe the wealth of the big banks that own oil stocks or the people who own oil stocks, but otherwise, the economy runs on oil. The cheaper the better. It's the lifeblood of the economy. Diesel fuel, heating oil, gasoline, chemical manufacturing. Cheap oil stimulates the economy. It's just that simple. As I said, though, the economy itself may be "destroying" wealth, but don't blame oil prices.

After he did that, the stock market started to tank again, but it has since bounced back a little. The dollar index has also recovered. China will fold. They're in more trouble than many people seem to think. Then again, Trump may just be making idol threats.

No matter how you look at it, lower oil prices stimulate the economy. For sure, the reason why prices are lower can vary - some good, some bad. But still, whatever else is going on, lower oil prices are better for the economy than higher oil prices. Right now, the world economy is so fragile that it simply could not survive the oil prices we'd see if the Straits of Hormuz were to be closed, for example. I'm addressing the USA economy, primarily. I'm sure Russia probably doesn't like lower oil prices. Ditto for Saudi Arabia and the other oil exporting nations.

Oil prices would have gone down, in any event, with all the new drilling nd opening up of territory for exploration. Couple that with a worldwide slowdown, which was already under way, and lower oil prices are a given. Any this moment my oil stocks are down 4%, on average. And they were dropping before that. Anyway, lower oil prices are good for the economy.

At this point, no one really knows how it will play out. You can guess, but that's all it would be. A guess. My guess: if everything starts to go bad, Trump will alter his course. Or perhaps, congress will step in. You can. bet that between congress and the Fed and the other Central Banks round the world, no one is going to sit back and watch indefinitely while the system goes up in smoke. Things don't work that way.

Russia is Russia, and yes, they underwent some change. But that's far from the scale of change that would be necessary to upend the entire order of the wold, which is about what Trump is trying to do.