bkkandrew

More Analysis.

After talking with a few people on the phone and in person, the more I feel the following. Please be open minded on this as only a few pieces of the puzzle are in place.

First: According to Sunbelt the law has been on the books from about 2001. My feeling is once the Thais passed it they started to look at it more closely and saw the negatives outweighed the positives (Translation insanity), so they just put it in the shelf and let it gather dust.

Second: If you look at countries that have a bit of turmoil going on, typically they like to limit the number of eyes so they can do what they plan to do. We have seen this very recently in the Middle East with Iraq and now Iran. I am sure there are more but I think you know where I am going with this. History has shown this type of action (getting foreigners out of the country) precedes some sort of action that they prefer the world not see.

Third: Non of this has hit the Thai press. News like this should be front page. Translation keeping the Thais blind.

Fourth: The John Karr issue was just an excuse to invoke this law. The same as the fake car bomb was an excuse to start cleaning house. Same plot just different elements.

Fifth: It has been suggested that Thaksin would stage a coup if he felt he was going to be forced out, so the military moved all he key man to impotent posts to remove that possibility. Thaksin just put them back in posts that he could take over the military.

Sixth: Thaksin has suggested that he may drop out. I simply see this as luring a false sense of security. I know he has too much to lose if he drops out, so any comment to that effect is just deception.

Seventh: I feel it is well within Thaksin thinking to have acceptable financial losses in Thailand because of this exodus. He personally would experience minimal loses with most of the losses going to the working class who don’t like him anyway.

Eighth: The timing of this law coincides with legal action against him, elections, and the potential that the TRT will be dissolved.

Based on this I now feel that this law is being enacted because Thaksin plans to use the military to insure his position as leader of Thailand, however I am not sure what title he will choose.

I invite your views on this. Unfortunately for all of us I have been right much more than I have been wrong.

I am not qualified to examine the political manouverings at issue. I would say that, as a theory, it stacks up There are too many coincidences happening all at once to be a coincidence. I actually would add the new airport in all of this, as it does give Toxin the ability to control movement of people and blame it on problems in the opening. Control of movement of people internationally is always a central tenet of a coup.

I see this post has changed dramatically! Anyway, in a email I received from the Chiang Mai expiates club, Allan Hall has this to say…

THE SITUATION AS IT STANDS REGARDING VISA

1. Retirement Visa extension. If you have a foreign married spouse

who is a dependent they will be able to get this dependent visa. (

change of what has been happing the last couple weeks in Bangkok)

Example: You are 52 years old and you have a 34 year old wife who is

from Germany, she can be a dependent. You only need 800,000 or a

pension of 65,000 Baht per month as a couple.

2. Retirement visa extension: If you have children under 20. They

will no longer be able to get a dependent visa based on you having an

extension of stay on retirement. Immigration wants these kids to get

it based on education so they go to school.

3. Investment Visa extension: Will no longer be available after Oct

1st for new applicants on 3 million Baht.

4. Investment visa extension. For existing extension of stay holders

of 3 million Baht, we are now being told this will now be

grandfathered in and they will be able to get the extension forever

as long as they renew.

5. Now the news for frequent visitors: We have checked this upwards

and backwards all day and it has been confirmed by a copy of the new

regulation we have. If you have a visa on arrival or a Tourist Visa

Exemption more than three times in six months, you cannot come into

Thailand without a visa from an Embassy/Consulate. When you enter

Thailand, even if you are here just 1 hour, this counts as 30 days.

If you come back 6 weeks later for 2 days, this again is 30 days. If

you arrive a month later for 4 days, still counts as 30 days. When

you leave, you cannot enter Thailand for 3.5 months without coming

back with a visa. The reason given is to force people who are

supposed to have work permits to do so and pay tax.

Another example; you arrive for a week, this counts as 30 days, One

month later 3 days and its 30 days, two months later and its for a

two week period, still another 30 days. You can reenter Thailand in 6

weeks without having a visa.

The clock starts at zero on Oct 1st 2006, meaning everyone has a

quota of three entries in the next six months. No matter how many

previous entries you may have.

6. On extension of stay based support of a Thai national (Marriage

visa), before if you applied for this extension of stay, you would

get a 30 day consideration stamp. Once you return to Immigration in

30 days you would get the one year extension.

Now however it will be the same as an extension of stay based on

business, with the norm of three 30 day consideration stamps instead

of one stamp( like before). Immigration will go out and check to see

if it’s a real marriage or a sham before issuing the one year.

For existing marriage visa holders, if they still have not checked

the marriage residence in the second year, the same multiple 30 day

consideration stamps, may apply before they issue the extension of

stay.

Your best choice is to obtain a multiple entry Non-Immigrant visa

which valid for 12 months. With this visa type you will need to exit

and enter Thailand at least every 90 days to get a new entry stamp

allowing you to stay a further 90 days.

If you utilize your visa the last time just before it expires, you

will get an extra 3 months "bonus", so the total validity will be

nearly 15 months.

You will probably NOT get a Multiple entry visa in neighboring

countries, your best chance of getting it is in your home country

before you arrive in Thailand.

Thai consulates in US, Europe and Australia seem to be the most

generous. The smaller consulates in Australia are the nearest and the

easiest, and air tickets to there are cheaper than to Europe or US. A

return ticket from Bangkok to Australia can be bought for less than

15,000 Baht with Air Asia (September 2006).

The Royal Thai Consulates in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth in

Australia issue Multiple entry visas, as per September, 2006, we are

informed.

If you are married to a Thai citizen, you can easily get a multiple

entry visa in Penang. Bring your Thai marriage certificate in

original (and one copy)

Best Advice for anyone who is unsure is to speak with a lawyer.

Alan Hall

Chiangmai Expats Club - Expats helping Expats

Thank you for this. I am interested with your part about the resetting of the clock. "The clock starts at zero on Oct 1st 2006, meaning everyone has a

quota of three entries in the next six months. No matter how many

previous entries you may have." This is at odds with previous statements on the matter and has serious reprocussions for all and on the effect on Thailand. Does anyone (Sunbelt?) have any clarification on this.

My guess is that most of you people on this board do not speak Thai, if you do, maybe you can handle a fifty word vocabulary at best. I am not flaming you with my posts I am trying to make you understand the bottom line, maybe with a sense of humor. But Thai level, here it is:

If you spoke Thai you would understand that most of this country no longer supports the schitzophrenic movement of the Thai Rak Thai ruling party, no they don't, not any more. The extra judicial murders (known 4000, 10k is the accepted figure) during the cessation of ya-ba days was a shock to the Thai sensibilty. The corrupt construction contracts in the North were something they were used to, but 4 superhiways around a city that only needed one? Thai/Chinese contractors? Yep, they wonder a lot about that. (Thaksin is Thai/Chinese) The election commitee tampering, where 4 TRT supporters go to jail for not investigating fraud? The non payment of a massive amount of income tax by the Shinawatras? And of course, the switching of local military control to police control in the south, creating the bipolar effect we have now, i.e. bombs. (Thaksin is a big believer in police control, after all he is a 30 year cop.)

TRT has screwed up this country. If you need some correction on what the Thais think: this country IS NOT RUN BY THE THAI PEOPLE, it is run by Thai Rak Thai party. TRT is getting away with everything it wants without portfolio, and when something doesn't go their way they blame the press or the farangs. End of story. TRT vote buying strategies are already in place in all of the poor tambons in the country, because of this they will most probably win again. Thai people would not want you to know how it works, but there it is. People vote with their wallets 100% of the time.

Now. Tell me, who will buy the new condos in Chiang Mai and Phuket that Thaksin directly supported? Who is going to plunk down 10 million baht ($250,000 US) in hard currency for a retirement home w/visa in a schiziod and questionably controlled 'developing country? Big ideas, big plans, but hello they aren't selling, and the bathrooms are going to rust to rot before anyone is going to buy into this mess.

When you guys bloat up and start talking about the Thais want it this way, and the Thais want it that way... if you don't speak Thai, you know nothing of what you speak. You do however know what the ruling party wants, you know that for sure. Everyone I talk to, every one I know all over the country is sick and tired of the control issue. The educated Thai population wants Thai Rak Thai out, and out now. This visa issue is not a big thing, but it is ANOTHER thing that the Thai population is not happy about.

So, that's what it's all about here, control. Learn Thai, stop blither blathering with your farang buddies, stop pretending to know, TALK to the THAI people here. Educate yourselves on reality. And again... bendix and nuffsaid, stop it, just stop. Your high and mighty rhetoric is best served in your own homes. You don't have a clue what is really going on at ground level Thailand and you probably never will.

'Old and in the way' in Phuket

Excellent post.I dispair of these people who claim to know what the Thais are thinking without the ability to actually converse with them... You know who you are!

A very good point. The sex industry for the Farang is earmarked by huge neon signs and touts who stop everyone who walk by saying "sexy DVD, sexy movie" or "ping pong show".... Thais have very quiet, nondescript places with black windows, and maybe a few girls sitting out front early in the evening. Only 3% of the biz is geared toard Farang... ever drive around Huai Kwang? Dozens of GIGANTIC brothels, each one bigger than Soi Cowboy or Nana.

Could you please direct me to this 'Huai Kwang'? Does it welcome farang or is it 'asian only'?

Live there. Very good, but speaking Thai is required. Ratchada sois 13-19 better.

.

Good posts hotgeekus, Col. Mustard, ramidin, bendix, and others who realize that true tourists are much better for a country than a bunch of people who are just a zigzag away from being refused entry.

We are ALL guests and visitors. Don't blame Thailand for enforcing ANY policy they care to invoke. You won't find any Thais in your country telling people how to run things.

Why hasn't this policy change been in the Thai press? Because 90% of Thai people couldn't care less. It's a non-item. They have their King, their culture, their family, their religion, and many other domestic problems, such as the violence in the South to be concerned with.

The effect on the actual tourist industry will be very VERY small.

I, for one, think things will improve for regular tourists. Mainly prices will go down after a period I would say. I know... I'm a moron or a Russian (let's go chug a bottle of vodka 'ay bendix ol' commerad?).

Vast stretches of Thailand may remain undeveloped and more pleasing to the true tourist who comes here for Thai culture, authentic food, and rustic beauty. Not high-rise condos jammed willy-nilly in every available space.

Just look at what has happened in Pattaya, Phuket, Samui in the last 20 years. They are zoos now with foreigners in the cages, that's all. Surely tourists don't come halfway around the world to see that.

As for the new rules. Easy.

Don't try to live here and pretend to be a tourist. Get the proper visa. If you can't get the proper visa, then Thailand doesn't want you living here. Just like any other country. Nothing to do with the current buzz word "xenophobia". Come back and visit anytime and you will be welcomed.

You have a condo? Lotsa people have condos in foreign countries all over the world for vacations and only go to them a month or so out of the year. They aren't complaining. err, maybe they are complaining but they still own them and go to them. You are surely welcome to visit your Thai condo anytime as long as you spend most of your time living elsewhere.

The main reason I am posting this is because I am sure this forum is monitored by Thai Immigration officials and certainly the English press here and elsewhere. So many other posts degrade and belittle and disrespect this lovely country. Including the guy half a dozen pages back who referred to it as "Land Of Sh*t". Wouldn't that make you angry if you were a Thai?

Others call Thai people stupid or at least naive. Others imply that bribery of officials will be the order of the day. Thais are lazy, money grubbing, etc. etc. This kind of thing is very unfair to the 50 million other Thai people you haven't met personally.

Please guys... Just concern yourself with what kind of visa you should try for and how to go about getting it. Face the truth. Act like a responsible person who values his time here and don't run down Thailand.

'nuff said

Quick question. Can you speak Thai? I can; and have been non-stop talking about this to Thais for the past few days, all of whom are horrified by the reality of this. If you cannot speak Thai and therefore have not actually been discussing matters with real Thais (that cannot speak English), then shut up. Enough said is the actual spelling

Just my two cents, and trust me, I am the new one here.....

Lots of talk about the Thai 'World' crashing with the changes... ie, apartments empty, Siam Paragon closing, all Thai's would become blind because they have no Farang to teach them English, etc....

Thailand was here long before we came, it will be here long after we (ok, I) go.

No matter how tough they make it here, VISA wise, it is still easier to live/work/survive in Thailand than any of the other countries I have lived in (USA, + 2 in Europe).

Fact is, This is Thailand, they don't and should not care what we think. Use this (maybe simple and stupid example):

You go to Patpong get right off the BTS, go buy a (fake) DVD for 100 baht. You know that in the western world it would cost ten times that, and have a quality that backs up the cost (yayaya, of course they are getting rich in Hollywood, screwing us here and there, blablabla). But, when you get home and the movie quality sux, and there are people getting up in front of the camera, you get pissed off go back and demand your money back. WHY IS IT THAT YOU KNOW YOU ARE BUYING A FAKE, BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE BETTER THAN THE REAL ONE? ONLY BECAUSE YOU CAN!

Trust me, this is not politics, these are foreigners who forget who's country they live in. I am a foreigner living in Thailand, and thankful that I am able to live here. I have a great job, great benefits and high(er) standard of living better/equal to home.

Sorry, but that is the truth.

You are actually nuts equating DVDs with visas.

I would guess that you have been here less than the typical holiday and your post can be treated as such.

At the moment the only political gain from this that I can see is Thaksin putting an end to this madness and making himself look like a savior of the Thais in Bangkok.

Why would Thaksin care about the Thais in Bangkok as they wouldn't vote for him anyway?

You keep going on about empty appartments as foreigners leave Thailand and how the Thai landlords will suffer as they can't find tenants. Have you considered that maybe if so many foreigners leave (and I doubt that huge numbers will) the appartment prices would have to drop which would be to the advantage of many Thais in Bangkok. As with most changes, some would lose while others gain.

You really fail to engage brain before mouth (well in this case, keyboard). Falling rents mean Thais with full mortgages failing to meet repayments when the repayments are derived from the rental income. Failing mortgage payments result in repossessions. Reposessions and lower real estate prices result in losses for banks. Losses for banks result in.... Oh I can't be bothered. Go look it up. 1997 Thailand. Russia 1998. Argentina recently. Actually forever..

OK here is what I see at this particular moment.

First is to the best of my knowledge this still has not been in the Thai media. The longer the delay in getting there the more it suggests that this is politically motivated and has little or nothing to do with the reasons cited by the Thais. Why has it only appeared in English media? For a country that is a tourist destination, news of tourist visa changes should be front page on all Thai papers.

Very simply it is time to be proactive and not reactive. Don’t think so much about yourself, but think about the Thais that you see and know. Get the word out to the working Thais as they are the ones who will suffer when the people leave Thailand. Help them connect the dots if they don’t see it. If they know they will make some noise. It is that noise and possibly only that will end this. So push away from the keyboard and spend some time talking to the Thais.

The key point I will mention again for the people who may have missed it. The people who will be effected by this have been integrated into the Thai economy. They don’t stay in hotels but they stay in apartments. Hundreds of not more of non tourist related Thai businesses have started up to support them and have them as customers. The revenue generated by them is significant. It would have about the same impact as Thailand ejecting all Muslims or any other group that is part of the economy.

I would be very curious to hear what the Thai news editor has to say about this and why it was not in the news.

Nothing, nada, zero, zilch in the 4 dailies I have read today... Not made the news either...

<IE ---- on Oct 1st do they look at the next entry being #1?>

This is our understanding.

this seems to confirm it.

http://www.asianpacificpost.com/portal2/ff...hailand.do.html

From October, tourists from the designated countries can still enter Thailand without visas

Each permitted time shall not be exceeding 30 days period, and the total period shall not be exceeding 90 days from the first day that the passport holder arrived in Thailand.

The Immigration website says the same

http://www.immigration.go.th/nov2004/2notice/newpro.html

90 days... but the logic they have is 90 days that you are granted.

You use only one day out of 30 days, still counts as 30 days as you were granted that right. So the logic is no confusion.

I know people don't want to hear it. I understand that. I wish they would make it clearer on the website as well.

Here is from the same article which quotes Suwat Thamrongsrisakul, he head of the bureau,

http://www.asianpacificpost.com/portal2/ff...hailand.do.html

and stay for up to 30 days, but their entry stamps will be renewable twice at most for a maximum stay of 90 days.

Tourists who stayed for 90 days must leave the kingdom for at least 90 days before being permitted to re-enter Thailand, Suwat said.

Other press seem to be saying the same thing

http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navcl...24841&hl=en

www.sunbeltasiagroup.com

sorry but this is not clear .... lets forget what the press reports as they seem as confused as the rest of us .. but the official document says SEVERAL times and not more than 90 days in 6 months ...

now forgive me for being stupid but if the 3 VOA was the official line wouldnt it say 3 and not several ???

if it is 3 strikes and your out i expect and lot of friction at the airports and a quick review to goto the 90 days rule instead

i suspect we willl see how this will all unfold after october 1st ...

must just say that the press and relation department of thai immigration should be officially sacked for this whole fiasco as has already been said the confusion will almost definately cause people not to book flights here

idiots

As opposed to being "unofficially sacked"?

does this attractive red stamp say NEVER or Wait for 90 days?

Simply because it puts you in their control from that point forward, you cannot wail at them on arrival from a 12-hour flight that you did not know anything about it. Equally, they can say OK - come in if they like you, you havew a good story, or, no doubt, cross their palm with...

Hi All

This is my first post

I was coming to thai in Oct- Nov visiting friends, I was going to get a multi entry non immigrant visa in case i decided to stay for a longer period, I understood I could stay for 90days then leave and come back in. Will i still be able to do that as i would of already stayed my 90 days. is it still posible to leave and come back in to the country say 2 or 3 times so i can stay for the 12 months.

All help appreciated

Warwick

Just don't come. It will be a mess..From the airport debacle, to the stamp-counting shenanigans, uncertainty over what the entry rules are at local level, the 2.5KM taxi-rank run, the expected flood waters this week, new bombings down south today, Toksin camped in London wile unrest grows in BKK...

Need I say more?

What I did today was I went to the office of my apartments just out of curiosity and asked how many tenants have tourist visas. She asked why and I said because I wanted to get some idea of how many vacancies there would be next month. She had no clue as to what I was talking about. Then I printed out the notice George posted from the immigration website and I saw her face turn from amusement to panic when I explained to her that this translates to vacant apartments. She said between 30% and 50% had tourist visas.

It would seem that non of this has hit the Thai news. At first glance it seems not to apply to them. Perhaps for the Thais this is like when the sea recedes just before a tsunami. Only people with a keen sense recognize the warning signs and sound the alarm.

Yes John, it was amazing that NONE of the Thais know anything about this. I have just come back to my apartment now after some shopping (gosh yes - spending some money with Thais) to be captured by the General Manager asking about what I had said to her staff earlier. As it happens, I was holding the regulations as copied here on this site and showed them to her. She has a good understanding of English and (again) the white face of reality set in. MANY PEOPLE MOVING OUT!!!

I would urge everybody to point this new rule out to their apartment owner/manager WITHOUT DELAY. Its only if enogh THAIS know about the impact of this that something may be done..

For all those who want to change this new policy:

I have just gone down to the office at my apartment block, where I have stayed for three years. I have requested that the owner (a Thai) of my particular apartment, managed by the Condo Management be informed of my request to reduce rent from B13000 to B8000 from November. I explained the logic behind this, i.e. numerous vacancies from October onwards.

The management staff HAD NO IDEA that this was going on and from first thinking that I was being my usual nutcase self, they all started talking about whether this would be a problem generally (The Condo itself owns over 75% of the units).

Now if everyone did this in the next few days, maybe the message could get through to sopme powers that be??

Here is a quick math lesson for any influential Thais that may be reading this.

First understand that the people you are targeting stay in apartments and not hotels.

Second assume the average rent is 10000 ThB per month.

Third multiply that by the number of people who you feel will be effected say 50000.

That quickly translates to 500,000,000 (500 million) ThB per month lost and 50000 vacant apartments.

Multiply that times 12 months and you get 6,000,000,000 ( 6 Billion) ThB in lost real estate revenues alone.

I don’t need to tell you what will happen to apartment owners that can’t pay their mortgage.

The question is how long can you keep this up?

How much different is that from what you would expect to gain by them paying taxes with a proper visa?

Well put, rather conservative I would say.

Add to that the considerable number of new-build condo/apartment units being added to the market daily, built with borrowed money, expected to be repaid by foreign money and you have a juicy recipe for a property-driven economic crash..

Hmm, think the office is open down stairs, think I will ask about the %age reduction they will give me for staying in this block.. Might take a camera for the look on their face, especially when I explain my rationale...