hammered

Looking at the news reports from around the World there is a fear that a 'One Party Government' run by Thaksin will become draconian and have the same effect as a military coup !

Which is BAD for all of us !

Mobs, bombs and crackdowns

Historically, Thailand's political imbroglio has significant regional precedents. Thailand's PAD has obviously cribbed its protest cues from the people-power movement that coalesced in 1986 to oust from power the Philippines' democratically elected dictator, Ferdinand Marcos. A similar popular movement unceremoniously pushed democratically elected Indonesian strongman Suharto from power in 1998.

Both authoritarian leaders famously manipulated elections to lend democratic legitimacy to their long and heavy-handed rule. In Indonesia, Suharto famously orchestrated what he referred to as "festivals of democracy", dressing up polls that were tightly controlled by his Golkar party's formidable political and military machinery. Marcos similarly stage-managed elections, mainly to please his military allies in the US.

Rampant corruption and abuse of power finally undercut the legitimacy of both Southeast Asian authoritarian regimes. Now with similar allegations being lodged against Thaksin's democratically elected government, the question is whether Thailand has reached a similar point of political inflection.

For Thailand's protest movement, the historical signposts are just as worrying as they are hopeful. Opposition Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva recently noted to reporters that his party boycotted elections in 1957, in a similar bid to undermine the authority of an abusive regime. The end result of that political brinkmanship was a military coup and an even heavier-handed military government.

Both Suharto and Marcos came under varying degrees of popular pressure to resign their posts, and both leaders cracked down viciously against their opponents, suspending civil liberties and jailing dissenters in the process. A series of mysterious bombs blasted public buildings, private offices and department stores in Manila in 1972, blamed on communists but planted by Marcos's allies, provided the pretext for Marcos to declare martial law, crack down on the media, jail the opposition and maintain an unrivaled grip on power for an additional 16 years.

It is not inconceivable that Thaksin will attempt to do the same, particularly if the protests intensify after the election. There are growing hints that Byzantine politics are at play. A series of mysterious bombs have been planted in front of the offices and headquarters of various PAD leaders. In late March, a bomb was defused before detonating in front of the Democrat Party's Bangkok headquarters. A bomb also exploded in front of the residence of chief privy councilor Prem Tinsulanonda, widely viewed as reclusive King Bhumibol's public conscience.

Thai police investigating the incidents have failed to uncover any leads or suspects behind the small-scale explosions. At the same time, police have started to record the critical public speeches made by PAD protest leaders, and last week Thaksin filed criminal defamation lawsuits against four Thai newspapers that published in full the speeches of protest leaders. Criminal defamation charges in Thailand carry a possible two years in prison.

Thai Rak Thai officials have also said they have compiled enough evidence to file as many as 40 different criminal defamation suits against PAD ringleader and media personality Sondhi Limthongkul. They are also investigating allegations that one of Sondhi's recent speeches could be construed as lese majeste for referring to the monarchy.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HD01Ae06.html

I would guess the world media will pick up on freedom of the press or lack of it stories rapidly. Powerful politicians filing defamation cases galore against the media usually creates a cause celebre and often results in local stories gaining widespread international coverage. TRT would probably do better sitting back and ignoring the stories.

Sorry, Copyat, I used "you" as a general reader, not you personally.

There are very few people in Thailand who will be genuinely offended by simply hearing Thaksin called "ai na liam" in this song.

And Thaksin supporters won't do anything for him unless fed and paid and given a free ride.

I don't expect riots because he was called "ai", does anyone?

Sorry, i misunderstood you.

It's not just the "Ai Na Liam" that is going to offend Thaksin supporters, but the barrage of gutter Thai used in connection with their idol, and especially the personal harsh insults against his family. In Thai culture insulting your opponent's family is considered as low as you can go, and in direct confrontations will inevitably lead to often extreme violence. This will not directly lead to rioting, but it is another step towards escalation in an anyhow loaded situation.

And i am afraid that you underestimate the level of support and admiration Thaksin enjoys under his supporters. They do not idolise him just because they are "fed and paid and given a free ride". You may get that impression if The Nation, the PAD and certain partisan boardmembers here are your only source of information. But i would advise you to stay for some time in a village in one of Thaksin's strongholds, or visit the Caravan of the Poor in order to get a more realistic picture.

I've spent a lot of time in a village in one of his super heartlands. Nobody seemed that worried what anyone said about Thaksin, and my wife is always insulting if this name is mentioned. They had farming to do and enjoyed their spare time eating, joking, discussing farming issues and local gossip. When criticism of Thaksin came up they were more interested in knowing why he wasnt liked than defending him.

By the way I have heard my fair share of low Thai in the villages I have been to. To use some of the terms on the families of those living there would be tantamount to suicide, but to use it on national politicians.... very different.

The suggestion of spending time in a village is a good one for any foreigner who wants to understand more about Thailand, but to spend time with an organized group like the caravan of the poor is probably a lot less worthwhile.

Is the song divisive? Maybe, but then hitting Chuan Leekpai with a chair is probably a criminal offence.

Defamation is a criminal offense, and yes, hitting Chuan with a chair is very much one.

One crime does not nullify the other, though.

I wouldn't equate a song with a physical assault, but each to their own.

Thailand has a tradition of political songs. This is not something new. Previous governments were used to songs for life artists singing about them. There was an interlude after the new constitution and Thaksin coming to power, not to mention one singer being somewhat embarassed when he was found doing what he sang the corrupt were doing. Now there are politcal problems we get the songs again. No surprise. This time it just happens to be hard hitting rap that has hit the imagination of some sectors of society even if at the rallies there have been songs for life artists singing about the political situation as well. Is the song divisive? Maybe, but then hitting Chuan Leekpai with a chair is probably a criminal offence.

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My Wife comes from a farming family from Northern Thailand and neither my wife nor her mother would want any free handouts including land from the PM. Sometimes in these debates we overstereotype people depending on their social status or the region they come from.

Where did you find that leaked report? Also where did you find the statistics for previous elections? They must have been published somewhere online.

The report was mentioned in one of the local English language dailies in the last week. The 60 seat failure last time is mentioned in todays UK Guardian.

In the last election TRT failed to win 20% of the vote in 60 of the 120 consitiuencies where they curently face no opposition.

A leaked TRT report claimed they would fail in 100 constituencies.

Undoubtedly they will increase their vote count in many northern and north easstern consituencies, but elsewhere there popularity is probably down. It looks like we are not just taking about a handful of unfilled seats.

My wife attended this weeks rallies and was telling me of a statement by southern Thais made on the stage, which to the best of my knowledge has gone unreported. They were saying that they would see how things went but the 11 could join the 3. Sondhi begged southerners not to take this route.

BANGKOK: -- Anti-Thaksin demonstrators led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) gave an ultimatum Tuesday evening that caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra resigns within 48

Or what ?

Hold up traffic yet again,

What a bunch of frustrated goofs...Whatever Thaksin did wrong, they're doing even worst for the country at this point...

Pathetic...

Afraid I cannot agree. These people could not in a million years do worse than Thaksin. As for being a goof (s) Thaksin is one of the biggest jokes to ever be visited on a country.

If you think these people are doing wrong please think back to the people in 1973, 1976 and 1992 who were influential in ridding the country of the monkeys then in power, the people now are doing their best to see that the wrongs of the past are not repeated adinfinitum.

To the people who are now pushing for Thaksins ouster we should all take our collective hats off to you.

Not true, these are the very same people, Banharn, Sanan, Sanoh, who bankrupted the Country in 1997 causing the collapse of the Baht. Billions of Baht were squandered by these MPs and the Country had to be rescued by the IMF. Thanksin took over and soon paid off the IMF loan and put Thailand back on it's feet. Now the Economy is doing very well, and Thanksin was voted back in with an overwhelming DEMOCRATIC VOTE.

Now Corrupt Politicians in their parties are desperate to get hold of the undertable money from the many Mega-Projects that TRT have soon to award. How can a minority MOB paid for by the smaller oppostion parties be allowed to unseat a properly elected Prime Minister. If a Minority Mob who takes to the street is allowed to remove a Prime Minster elected by the Majority, then Democracy will be dead in Thailand. Thaksin is doing the right thing in putting it to the vote on April 2nd, Let all the People Decide, Thailand should not be ruled by the mob.

If you were actually here in 1997 you would realise that Chavalit was the primeminister who bankrupted the country and that Thaksin was in the government - Deputy PM i think. Sanan was in the opposition. Get your facts right.

TRT don't want any discussions before the election, they could only lead to a loss of votes, the only important factor according to Sudarat and Thaksin is the number of votes TRT obtain on April 2, anything above a majority,( is that a majority of votes cast or a majority of the total number of the electorate?)means no one from then on has the right to criticise TRT from then on- true participatory democracy.

A true parliamentary dictatorship awaits Thailand.

ColPyat, I very much agree with you, although the major hurdle to compromise appears to be Sondhi. His fowl language and hand gestures have angered many. This is not the Thai way. He is causing obstacles to compromise. Politics aside, the PM has done a lot of good for the Country. What has Sondhi done?

TRT insisted PAD dissolved their rally if talks went ahead, why?

Both Aphisit and the PAD have said they are willing to hold open talks with Thaksin but he insists any talks must be private.

Why? If the sale of Shin Corps to Temarak was legal with no involvement by the PM who has repeatedly said over the years he has washed his hands of the day to day running of his business to show his compliance with the laws, why does he persist in refusing to discuss the issue in public?

If I was accused of a serious offence such as selling out the country and I was innocent, I would demand an immediate debate\ discussion on TV.

His only defence is to tour the provinces saying the only test of democracy is the number of votes you can win. If he gets over 50% he'll say no one has the right to scrutinise or monitor him for another 4 years, this is Thaksin democracy, a true example of mob rule.

Thank you. Many people miss the point that a lot of the protestors were initially only asking for the check and balance mechanisms to look at the PM's actions. It was the PM who disolved parliment before a second impeachment complaint and who decided that the people's election of a new legislature should trump the check and balance mechanisms that are supposed to ensure elected leaders and representatives follow laws. Bizarre.

Nobody is going to lose 30 baht health care or village funds just because one man is gone. In fact it is very likely we would have the samer government with the same policies and agendas but with a different leader.

Oh you're wrong. They are going indeed to loose the 30 THB scheme. And you know why ? Because it's just a plain stupid policy, that the State can not afford very long.

Unless you increase taxes on a massive scale... Thailand becoming an european country for instance.

So stop dreaming, stop dreaming about thoses kind of policies : they are populists. And very easy to create. For some times. But after, it's always "check bin" time.

I actually agree that these policies in the long term will either fall or involve increased tax collection or tax rates. However, my point is if Thaksin goes then after the next election whoever is in power will keep those policies. it will just be plain imposible not to, so the scare tactics of trying to convince the northern and north eastern people who support TRT that they will lose their health care remain only scare tactics. How much coverage they get under the scheme remains a moot point and seems to vary by location. Many of the "poor" I have met and discused this with in a northern province dont seem to like taking their chances on the 30 baht scheme, but that is another matter.

Sometimes I get a little confused when reading through these comments. It sounds like Thailand has a presidential system when constantly reading how most people will vote for Thaksin. I thought Thailand had a party system parliamentary democracy where people voted for a local representative who was a member of a politicl party. Surely if the people of the North and Isaan want TRT can they can vote them back in with or without Thaksin. Surely a party as large as TRT still has the same policies. Nobody is going to lose 30 baht health care or village funds just because one man is gone. In fact it is very likely we would have the samer government with the same policies and agendas but with a different leader.

Just look at the last elections - see Sanan's complete miscalculation with his Mahachon party, he propelled himself into political oblivion, and Sanoh has as well (that's why he is regularly seen at the demonstrations, trying to get back into the old power game).

Now, if you were aware that Sanan spent last five years in politcal exile and then left the party where he build his political career you'd understand that his miscalculation has nothing to do with TRT's "paralel systems" but with losing his canvassers.

Are you aware that when Snoh joined TRT he brought about 70 sure win MPs with him. Over the years Taksin restled control over them from Shoh and now his fraction consist only of about 20 MPs, and when Snoh resigned only 6 resigned with him, and one those resigned begged Taksin for mercy to take him back. What was it about parallel systems and canvassers again?

Villagers are sick and tired of the old canvasser sythem, that is one of the main reason why they support Thaksin.

Really? What make you tihnk so? They still vote for exactly the same MPs they've been voting since they were born. Someone mentioned that 75% of PMs get reelected no matter under what banner they run.

And yes, once Thaksin is gone, these mafia style politcs of old might try to return....

They can't return because they've never left. Whatever happens after TRT desintegration, expect to see the same familiar faces under all new or revived NAP, Chat Pattana and other parites that have been swallowed by TRT.

As long as the opposition has no vision for Thailand's future that incorporates the rural poor, that long the opposition will not get a majority in any election anymore, will always stay a mainly urban based minority in a country with 2/3 of the population living upcountry.

You of course ignore the fact that the Democrats have also a complete lock on the South, and that with 120+ MPs it will easily become the biggest party in Parlament when TRT desintegrates. Then all those TRT factions will run to join them in ruling coalition.

Anyhow, so far i don't see Thaksin on his way out, and i don't see him running around the cntry mindlessly. I see him rousing support from many parts of the population while the opposition wastes valuable resources and doesn't do anything substantial to get Thaksin voters over to their side.

As I said, Democrats will get those voters on their side once their masters join Democrat led coalition.

I'm speculating, btw, we have to wait and see what happens to TRT exactly. They still have some very strong factions who can compete with Democrats. Will it be enough to form the majority in Parlament? Let's wait and see.

I suspect Taksin's running aroung the coutnry and drumming up support is not to win the elections, but to claim legitimacy against PAD. He's much more afraid of them than of Democrats.

Democrats, on the other hand, campaing in their strohghold to prevent TRT's win there. If they can hold on to the South and make sure that less than 20% vote for TRT, their mission is done. No need to feed all of the Isan and North.

Interesting to see people debating Sanan's oblivion in the Thaksin era. Let's not forget the legal precedent set in the Sanan case that overlooking declaring your assets correctly did not qualify as a defence against being removed from politics for 5 years. Now when did that recently established precedent get overturned?