JCP108

Look how much they care about the chronic, high amount of daily road deaths from having zero enforcement of traffic laws for that statement about Covid-related deaths to make sense.

Does the vaccine lower transmission rates in addition to reducing the severity of breakthrough infections? Yes. Does lowering transmission rates mean that variants have a significantly reduced opportunity to evolve in the general population in order to change into forms less protected by vaccines? Yes. Well, then, each of us does. have an interest in those around us being vaccinated.

Thanks for posting these data. One thing I find interesting is the percentage of positive Covid tests. According to the data on your most recent chart for Phuket, there were a total of 110,013 tests for the three tests combined. Of those, 191 were positive which is 0.173%. Research on Covid PCR tests has been reported to show that they have a false positive rate of 0.4-0.7% with the mean being 0.6%. If we take the low end of that range and apply it to the Phuket data, even if none of the sandboxers actually were infected, there should be around 440 positive tests. I haven't heard of re-tests in Thailand upon a positive lab result to confirm and rule out the false positives. So, how did Thailand achieve that amazingly low number? See, for example: https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19

I agree. I wear a hemet 100% of the time and all reasonable people do. But, the anti-helmet lobby is strong in the U.S.

They don't get that many people make their travel plans more than 48 hours in advance. So, they are <deleted>-ing away their chance to even partly salvage this "high" season since they can't get their <deleted> together enough to tell us what the rules are starting in November (this being the middle of <deleted>-ing October).

Well. Many travelers make their holiday travel plans more than 48 hours in advance. So, if this high season is going to get off the ground, I'd say they only have very few days to get their <deleted> together and announce very clear plans/restrictions/incentives. Otherwise, it's <deleted>-ed.

And, will they answer these questions before the <deleted>-ing "high" season has ended?

Very sad. I proprose that they adopt the same rules as in the U.S.: No driver or passenger on a two-wheeled vehicle under the age of 18 can ride without a helmet. No more than two people on a two-wheeled vehicle (certainly never five or six [which I have seen many times in Thailand]) No driving any vehicle without a license. But.... ...this will never happen unless they intend to actually enforce traffic rules at all.

And quarantine and fake quarantine.

Another vague reference to doing away with quarantine altogether in November. Would be nice if they specified what that change will actually be.

Hopefully Iceland and Germany can file the correct paperwork in order for the vaccines to actually be accepted by the Thai government.

I could do 14 days to get back to my wife and home in Thailand. I could do 7 days. I would prefer to do zero. What's stopping me, mostly, is the required Covid tests. The false positive rate for PCR tests is 0.5-5% depending on the pool of true positives in a sample (see links below). If I am required to do two or three tests, then I have between a 1% and 15% chance of getting a false positive and ending up with a mandatory (and not needed) hospital stay. If I exhibit Covid symptoms, test me. If I don't, don't test me at all. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7934325/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7850182/

Those might have been false positives. In areas of high prevalence rates of true infections, the false positive rate is variable, but somewhere around (or above) 0.5%. In areas of low prevalence rates (seems the case in this scenario), then the false positive rate could be as high as 5%. See: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7850182/ and, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7934325/

They predicted 100k "tourists" to the Phuket sandbox and got 37k travelers (and my guess is at least 50% of those were just people trying to get back home from abroad). So, now they are predicting 1 million "tourists" in the next 6 months(hahahahahahahahahaha!). If they got 20k actuall holiday-makers during the sandbox, then maybe they will also get about 5-10k in October having reduced the quarantine to 7 days but keeping the process pretty much every bit as cumbersome and complicated. Maybe then they will get even more motivated to reduce the quarantine to actual zero so that tourists and the rest of us will come to Thailand.

But, if Covid is spreading around in the general population (like the flu has forever), then eventually, there will be many cases (like the flu) but only very few severe cases. However, I listened to an inteview with an epidemiologist recently who said that we might not reach that state for 3-4 generations. We have to just adjust and accept that Covid is now a new cause of illness. We should take reasonable precautions (masks, for example) but try to get back to normal and not expect that any measures (for example 14-day quarantines) will reduce the transmission risk to zero.

My interpretation: No way we can get 70% of Thais vaccinated.

Remember, this is the government that sent a crack inspection team to Pattaya to look for prostitution and they found none!

Yes. And, in the publication which can't be linked, they today said they expect 1 million tourists in Phuket between now and the next six months!!! Hahahahahahaha!

Do they explain whether there is a reduction in the number or type of Covid tests a sandboxer will undergo during the seven days?

"The study found that people fully inoculated with Sinovac reduced their risk of infection by 54% and risk of death by 74% compared with unvaccinated populations. Still, the AstraZeneca vaccine appeared to offer more protection, reducing the risk of infection by 70% and the risk of death by 90%. Sinovac’s efficacy also waned in older populations, reducing the risk of death by only 35% in populations over 80." https://fortune.com/2021/08/31/china-covid-vaccine-sinovac-sinopharm-delta-variant-effective/

Yes. And, a few other ideas to help the tourism industry (in addition to reducing all the crazy barriers to entry): 1) Move the money in the submarine category of the budget to cleaning up the tourist areas and making them look more like tourists might want them to look (fix the broken sidewalks, clean the beaches, and add one or two public bathrooms). 2) Address the problem with road accidents, injuries, and deaths. Thailand is #2 in the world for worst traffic safety. 3) Enforce the rule of law so tourists are scammed less often. 4) Keep working on the plastic bag problem so the whole country isn't littered with them.

But, they've seemingly lost all touch with reality. Just yesterday in the publication which can't be linked here, the TAT were quoted as predicting that there will be 1 million tourists coming to Phuket in the next 6 months! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Depends on what is most important to you. I've stayed on Phuket many, many times. For me, I like the clean waters and beach of Kata. Pre-pandemic, it was always hopping. Now, 98% of retaurants and businesses are closed though some are open (at least last time I was there during 2020 pre-sandbox). I assume that the sandbox scheme has opened a few more. If, like me, the beach is important, I wouldn't suggest Phuket Town. Maybe hit Rawai if you want more action. Beach is not as nice as Kata and Karon, though.

She's had two doses of the Sinovac vaccine and has pre-paid for the alleged upcoming Moderna doses. Hasn't gotten the Moderna yet (though I'm sure the Health Minister won't provide any sort of road blocks to delay their delivery).

Does to me if I were to get a false pos test (statistically 1/200 per test which means 3/200 right now) or test pos and be asymptomatic (not that unlikely for someone like me who is vaccinated and also recovered and unlikely to get symptomatic even if I get newly infected by a local) and then forced into a 14-day hospital stay.