swissie

Rats! No enlighenment so far. 30 years ago, at the university we studied the "love-life" of rats extensively.

 Never been able to find out why certain female rats accepted male rats as the father of their future offspring, while other male contenders were vigorously refused and mercilessly attacked. Eventually our studies were inconclusive, we were cut off of any future funding.

That was 30 years ago. In some way rats as well as humans must have some "selective pathways" in their brain, indicating "I like what I see" or "I don't like what I see".

Pending conclusive explanations, I feel that I will have to resume my former  studies. Focusing on the "smell theory" as this proves to be a major factor in the animal-world. Mainly due to the lack of other explanations by humans.

 I will start with wallowing in hog manure. Will keep you posted.

47 minutes ago, still kicking said:

This is my second marriage the first one lasted 30 years, I ended it (long story) now I am married the second time for 20 years to a Thai. 

Great!

Same here. 2nd marriage, 20 years. Maybe it's' the reduction of hormones that can eventually turn a male/female bondage into something "until death do us part".

To a point where "the other half" of you becomes a part of you. Raging hormones will make something like that impossible as the Hunter must remain the Hunter and the hunted will remain the hunted.

The chances of you staying healthy are intact. As a hermit you will not likely contract a desease transmitted by human interaction.

But sooner or later some of your cells will misfunction. Making you sick. Preparing you for the "grim reaper".

If you can't wait for this to happen, visit a friend at the hospital. You have a good chance that you will accumulate some "hospital-bugs", possibly making you sick, but breaking the monotony of your digitalised world. Few of us envy your lifestyle.

10 minutes ago, still kicking said:

We used to say opposite attracts.

With a divorce rate of nearly 50%. After that, looking for the next "opposite"? Could it be that we do not love a "person", but a certain category of persons?. That, of course makes "monogamy" an exercise in futility in the first place.

By looking at couples, sometimes I wonder "what she sees in him" or vice versa. What makes us attract to a certain type of person? Even the ugliest of us find a "partner".

Science tells us that some bodyly "smells" play a major role. I myself smelled females from head to toe regularily , but it didn't make a difference. But if I see a"petite" female, I immediately feel attracted to her. This is why I am attracted to 85% of Thai females.

Returning to the "smell" factor: By bathing in french perfume or wallowing in hog-manure, what would make me more attractive to the opposite sex?

- NOTE: No female has ever smelled me from head to toe, they rather smelled my wallet intensively. From my point of view, with rather satisfactory results.

Back on topic: Who loves who and WHY?

THE ENIGMA: German stock market near the hights. The most sluggish economy in Europe. Exports declining. Can not compete with Chinese e-cars. Infrastructure neglected for 20 years. (most rural areas still have no access to "fast internet" for example). Income inequality rising fast. Social unrest increasing by the week. A government unable to govern.

- The hope of fast declining interest rates, (that will automatically cure all the ailements of Germany), is the only remaining factor lending support. If those interest hopes should not materialise, the German stock market will make for a nice "short".    

On 1/29/2024 at 12:25 AM, Mike Lister said:

This is interesting, it's the Mr Copper and Mrs Gold ratio:

 

- Investors expect rate cuts as early as April in Europe and March or May in the US, with up to six cuts        anticipated for the year.

- The copper-gold ratio, a reliable indicator of rate direction changes, is currently rising, suggesting traders might be misjudging future rate movements.

- Historically, a higher copper-gold ratio correlates with economic growth and potentially higher rates, challenging current market bets on central bank policy easing.

 

If that is correct and rates do rise, the negative impact on US equities will be substantial, as it will on long dated bonds. The bigger impact however will be on EM, in particular Asia where currencies will become less attractive.

 

https://wallstreet-now.com/en/articles/2024/01/28/copper-gold-ratio-signals-potential-rate-hike-misjudgment

 

Copper: No more really important to look at coppers "fundamentals" with a magnifying glass anymore. I believe copper has a "story", supporting it's price for quite some time to come. The story? = The "electrification" of the world.

This underlying story may diminish the prognostic value of a copper/gold ratio. Goes as well as for the copper/peanut or the copper/beer ratio.

On 1/28/2024 at 3:14 AM, Mike Lister said:

I've been thinking about the country P/E table that @swissie posted. I'm trying to get my head around what the relationship is between a country P/E and income per capita or similar because that would explain much and mean that the S&P at 22 and China at 8, is perfectly normal. Anyone?

P/E can only serve as a "first glance" at things. No more.

I started to shake in my boots. I felt, that under the circumstances, stocks are "expensive". But ony the US (especially the tech sector) India and Taiwan are expensive according to P/E Ratios.

Look here:

https://worldperatio.com/

55 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

That does not really address what I said. What was the total number of years the market was up between 1928 & 2016? 

 

 And wasn't the S & P was founded in 1957? 

"Dow Jones" is much older than the S&P 500. Most years it was "up".

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

What's really astonishing to me is the number of economists and traders who really don't take the debt into account, they just figure it's part of the deal, and it's not really going to affect anything at any point in time.

 

I think it's going to cause the whole house of cards to come crashing down at some point. 

Well, it's like the guy that jumped off the 15th floor. On the way down, having passed the 7th floor, saying to himself: "So far, so good".

On a more serious note: Ever since WW2 the "global money supply" was increased by the central banks (money supply means "credit" at the end of the day). Thus fuelling "Economic Growth". Without "growth of money" no more "economic growth".

The junkie around the corner needs ever increasing amounts of heroin to keep him going. The Heroin of the world economy is called cheap (paper) Money.

10 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

A few comments...

 

---The South Seas seem to be beset by two maladies: obesity and maybe echolalia (Pago Pago, Bora Bora, etc.)

 

---I think Sadie Thompson has long ago left Pago Pago (but in Somerset Maugham's adapted  "Rain", one of my favorites, isn't Joan Crawford fetching....no wonder the Davidson (Walter Huston), pious as a Thai monk, could not resist her)

 

---In my university days, I remember reading about an island in the Cook chain called Mangaia. A visiting anthropologist said it is the land of sex (probably putting even Pattaya to shame), that men averaged some 21 encounters a week, and it was custom for the women to bed each and every visitor. Something to consider, as schtupping is as natural as life itself.

Quote: "and it was custom for the women to bed each and every visitor".

This was also the reason that the crew of the "Bounty" didn't want to leave Thaiti.

Also the reason that many Farangs didn't want to leave Pattaya. For better of for worse. 555

It's not just the technical (sound) effect. Todays young folks (not only actors) slurr their speach, avoiding clear pronunciation of words (modern talking).

I stream in English, German and French. Same thing.

- How refreshing it is to listen to Gregory Peck, where every single word can be understood.

On 1/18/2024 at 9:57 AM, Etaoin Shrdlu said:

To my ears, the volume of content on streaming services seems to vary considerably. If there is music or violent scenes with explosions or gunfire, the volume is excessive, yet in the same movie the dialogue is often so low that it becomes difficult to understand.

 

I have frequently wondered whether the streaming services like Netflix somehow degrade audio quality in order to conserve bandwidth when streaming their content. This article states that it is just inconsistent volume levels within the content: https://www.techhive.com/article/579229/streaming-tvs-invisible-annoyance.html. The article also mentions some solutions for specific types of TV or media players. I'm not entirely convinced and suspect that the audio signal is possibly intentionally degraded by the streaming service.

Right. Backgound noises are like thunder. The actors voices are like they would be speaking in another room or 100 yards away. Digitalised progress, I guess.

On 1/17/2024 at 12:17 AM, Mike Lister said:

The Baltic Exchange has both Dry, Wet and Gas freight market information but things get messy having to cross reference several indices, Thus far there's nothing as convenient as Dr Copper.

 

https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/market-information0/indices.html

As far as searching for "simplyfied indicators". There is always the very old "Dow Theory".

= Dow Industrial and Dow Transportation should move in tandem. While the Industrial has made new highs, the Transportation HAS NOT. Ooups?

- With the help of my Romanian Gypsy clairvoyant I am working on a new index that combines the Dow Theory, the Baltic Dry Index and Dr. Copper.

EUREKA ! This is it. I will get filthy rich. I am so confident, that I have already ordered a new yacht.

On 1/19/2024 at 5:28 PM, spidermike007 said:

 

I totally agree those are all very relevant points to be taken into consideration. I think the debt maybe the largest threat. Lister mentions the debt at 34 trillion for the US, but that's official and fictitious. Anybody with a good memory will recall that Cheney had Congress pass a resolution that allowed the entire Iraqi and Afghani campaign to be conducted off the books and that's likely at least an additional 10 trillion dollars in debt. Who knows how much other debt is hidden, I think it's probably closer to 47 trillion. 

 

Then there's the possibility of a major correction, many of us think the stock markets are grossly overvalued, many of us think real estate is grossly overvalued, and there are a lot of variables that could cause a major correction to happen. Once it starts can it be stopped? I don't know the time frame but I see the Dow dropping to as low as 3,500 perhaps within the next few years. 

Yeah, let's talk about dept.

There is a very internationally respected Newspaper in Switzerland (founded in 1780). They do not publish any fake news.

In a recent article they calculated, that if the global mountain of debt would have to be paid back, then every human being on this world wold have to work for absolutely free for the duration of 3 years. 

On 1/19/2024 at 9:56 PM, Mike Lister said:

The S&P reaching new highs reminds that, "markets can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent"!

 

Meanwhile China suffers a continued USD 6 trill+ rout hence the spread becomes even more massive.

Plus debt ratio compared to GDP is around 140. In strong competition to Italy. But betting agaist the worlds most "vigorous" economy?

1 hour ago, Baht Simpson said:

Any advice on where I should stick my $200?  

I was going to suggest "Beer Chang" at around 5%. But home brewed booze is around 40%. Where else can you get a risk free 40%?

30 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Russia did not budge while Trump was in office, unlike during the Obama and Biden administrations. 

 

Trump's calling out slackers for not meeting their NATO financial obligations left most NATO members much better equipped to help Ukraine than they otherwise would have been.  

 

I think had Trump won the election, there would be no war in Ukraine or Palestine. 

 

If you do not want to talk politics fine, but then do not bring it up. 

 

 

Quote: "Trump's calling out slackers for not meeting their NATO financial obligations left most NATO members much better equipped to help Ukraine than they otherwise would have been".

= All sent to the Ukraine? According to current NATO inventory (without US): After 3 weeks, NATO will run out of ammunition. Confirmed by European Defence Ministries.

Politics and economics are unseperable. Just saying.

5 hours ago, GammaGlobulin said:

Dear Folks,

 

This evening begins the beginning of our weekend.

 

In America, as I recall it, back in 1990, almost everybody you met on a Friday would exhort you, and everybody else who was with you, to "Have a Good One".

 

But...a Good what?

 

During the past 30 years, I had thought that I had heard the last of it.

 

Yet, yesterday, someone sent me an email from Florida, and closed the email by wishing that I might Have a Good One, tomorrow.

 

What do you think they are talking about when they wish you a Good One?

 

Is this just an Americanism, do you think?

 

Each week, when Friday rolls around, do you wish your wife....a Good One?

What about your wife's brother?

A Good One, too?

 

I must say that I really do not like this expression.

And now, after receiving this recent email, I truly wonder what I must do to escape, for good, the inanity of this useless expression, which really means nothing...as far as I can tell.

 

Might it be necessary to use a filter on my incoming emails?

 

But still, just in case I might be missing some hidden meaning, I wonder if you might know...

 

What is a Good One?

 

Do you, yourselves, enjoy a Good One on a Saturday eve?

 

What is good for you might not be so good for me, naturally.

 

Or, is there some sort of Good One that is good for us all, which they are wishing me?

 

Just wondering.

 

Maybe C.B. Ozbourne might know?

Or, if he does not...

Then...do you?

 

Tks.

GG

 

 

Plenty of  meaningless greeting and goodby phrases.

But I can top it all. Very common in the German language to greet someone by "Gruess Gott". In English: "Greet God".

As I have no connection to God, how should I relate his greetings to God? Why does he not greet God himself, without taking me as an "in between"?

Try this: If in England or the US. instead of saying "Hello", say "Greet God". You will get some strange looks. Rightly so, but not so in Germany.

On 1/17/2024 at 1:52 AM, Lacessit said:

I doubt you could afford to live there.

I still use the lens of opportunity, and a fair go. Neither exist in Australia anymore.

In 1970, I bought a house in Melbourne.

I paid off the mortgage within 18 months, which greatly displeased the bank manager I got the home loan from.

If one is on less than a six-figure income in Australia, owning a home is an impossible dream.

Same in Europe. Space is getting scarce.

Plenty of land in Australia, but heard that "land developpers" developpe only comperatively little land to keep prizes artificially high. (A land mafia)? Is there anything to it?

No logical analisys for a change. I allow myself to shamelessly expose my "gut feelings" here.

- I would like to see the recent "dip" of the US markets as a "technical correction". But the recent lows MUST hold, otherwise a more severe "correction" is likely to follow.
As the year progresses, the "Donald Trump Index" will increasingly affect "investor sentiment". Come fall at the latest, investors will be mesmerised by the weekly polls and rightly so:

A second term president Trump would mean epochal changes, too numerous to mention here. But just for starters: If sombody throws a "monkey wrench" into the machinery of global trade, this would likely make investors "shake in their boots". Affecting every form of investment. (Including the prize of your kitchen sink).
----------------------------
I always like to consult my 103 year old Romanian Gypsy Clairvoyant Lady. She claims that this Trump guy is fogging up her crystal ball to a degree, that predictions have become utterly impossible.

Otherwise she had always a firm conviction as far as investments are concerned:

- 33% is careful analisys (doing the opposite of what financial advisers tell you to do).
- 33% is your gut feelings (after having smoked some mushrooms).
- 33% is the most important factor: PURE LUCK!

11 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Easy for you to say. I can't even manage Spanish!

So glad JT diden't emigrate to Ecuador, once high on his list. Relatively easy "visa requirements" at the time. Today: A political powder keg.

Above all: Thailand is a better place to sample Chinese Cuisine than Ecuador.

28 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

The Family is China's strength which has been responsible for the endurance of Chinese culture.

 

I agree that my spelling is atroshuss, and, on most days, I am unable to spell civilisation, in a civil fashion....

 

Spelling is less important than Familly, however, is my humble two cents.

 

 

Not to forget that "the teacher of the nation" (Konfuzius) claimed that a "mentally healthy family" is the basement of a healthy state.

Not easy to apply in "the West" as a good number of families qualify as "disfunctional".

Good to know that certain "families" have spread all over the world. The Italian Mafia and the Chinese Mafia. Long live the "Families"!

On 1/13/2024 at 3:46 PM, Mike Lister said:

Yes, another reason to monitor the Dry Baltic Exchange.

The Dry Baltic Exchange only mirrors "Dry Goods" limited to a relatively small geografical area.

I would rather have a daily/weekly/monthly "container shipping index" as most goods today are shipped by container.