WalkingOrders

34 minutes ago, sanemax said:

You should stay in doors and never go out, no one can kill you then 

I am out all the time but I wear a mask and dark glasses

9 hours ago, Jingthing said:

When push comes to shove, young people mostly do not vote at all. I'll support Bernie if nominated, indeed I'll support Joe Blow down the block if nominated, but I don't see how he wins. Suburban white women aren't going to vote for him. Bernie has built an impressive coalition among progressive democratic party primary activists. That does not a presidency make. To add to that, he'll never get his promises passed even if he is miraculously elected. Meaning by nominating Bernie we're flushing the future of American democracy down the toilet and surrendering to an authoritarian narcissist that clearly thinks and acts as if he's above law for basically nothing. This is crazy time and there's only a little time to stop the Bernie electric streetcar of doom.

Bernie is your candidate. after super Tuesday he is unstoppable. Hope he doesn't have a heart attack while debating President Trump! ????

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Bernie Sanders is a globalist? Seriously? Perhaps in the simplistic  sense of the global far right wing attacks on Jewish people by constantly using the name of George Soros and 'globalist' as an obvious code word to express antisemitism and  global Jewish control conspiracy theories.

 

Now some reality --

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4537630/user-clip-bernie-sanders-globalization-inequality

You will see how popular Bernie is with Jews if he faces Trump in the general election, Sanders would be the most Anti-Israel President in US history. 

2 hours ago, sirineou said:

   Bernie is authentic , he  does not pander, it is a big part of his appeal.

The Cubans consist 6% of the florida population, and vote overwhelmingly Republican.If they don't like the truth  they have a champion in trump.  

I lived in Miami for 3 years. Sadly, what once was Little Havana, can now more appropriately be called Little Guatamala or Little Honduras. All the result of illegal immigration. And because current U.S. law which allows a child of illegal aliens born in the USA is a Citizen, the voting demographic is rapidly changing in several states. Short of a massive move right of blacks and Hispanics, in a couple more election cycles the Left will establish a statistically undefeatable Super majority. That would signal dark times. Estimate of illegal aliens in USA is 20,000,000.

On 2/24/2020 at 8:17 PM, saengd said:

A few thoughts.

 

Asia is in the early stages of ascendancy, China in particular has huge amounts of room to grow, it's potential hasn't nearly begun to be tapped yet. Neighboring regional countries will share in that growth, an Asian equivalent of the EU is in the making but without the overhead, more likely an alliance of nations. China is already funding regional trade via currency swaps to escape USD dominance, they are also funding growth in those satellite countries

 

The US and the West are drowning in debt and social care programs from which there's no easy way out, the western system of democracy seems to be moving closer to civil war in some cases, democracy is strained and being tested, China and neighboring countries have no such problem. The US doesn't have much room to grow beyond its borders, neighbors to the North aren't interested and those to the South aren't exactly best friends.

 

Continued globalization might have changed much of that but there is no longer any will, it's become a dirty word. 

 

Thailand and THB - low debt, very low foreign debt, high foreign currency reserves, equal amounts of gold reserves, low social care overheads, available workforce, exports and tourism income, roots in agriculture and farming......so what if the economy takes a hit for a year, what's the impact, it will recover, despite this years downturn there's no compelling reason to believe anything is permanent or lasting, let alone terminal.

 

Developed countries in the West are the opposite of those things in too many cases, especially debt.

You may be sidestepping internal problems in China a bit. A discussion for another time and place.

On 2/21/2020 at 10:30 AM, saengd said:

Ahhhh, you can't use the word "if" or "unless" when you're making a bet, it's a binary thing, yes as is or no as is.

Do you still have the same courage of your convictions?

Every trader has the courage of convictions, and all of us lose some. Some more then some.

On 2/20/2020 at 5:34 PM, saengd said:

Sorry, forgot to add....I'm very much in the camp that says USD/THB will head towards 25 over the next decade, I just don't believe for one second it's going the other way. And since GBP/USD is based almost solely on USD/THB, I'm expecting low to mid 30's for the Pound over that same period.

Yeah, but that is kind of an all things the same projected future taking a weak dollar into account.. And yeah.. Sadly...Don't say 25 though it hurts me see it in print! But on the other hand.... It's frikking pandemonium out there and 5 years is an awful long time to call????

On 2/20/2020 at 11:10 AM, saengd said:

Tough question, one possible answer might be that it is, not that tourist numbers has that much of an impact on the value of THB.

 

Anecdotally: I had to go to the hospital in Chiang Mai yesterday, I ended up going to three of them because I was looking to get a test done that is not routine. Have to say I was actually very impressed at the protocols they had in place, Suan Doc Mahraj has a person at the door taking peoples temperature and handing out masks plus entry and exit routes are strictly controlled. At McCormick the process was similar, everyone was wearing masks and there was a nurse restricting access on the main door. Bangkok Hospital was less controlled and I could walk right in but the nurses are much cuter :). Seriously, masks and hand gel every where, large signs warning visitors, not a bad effort  really.

Cheng Wattana immigration providing handgel and virus screen before entering waiting area, a sticker for re-entry.

On 2/20/2020 at 10:49 AM, saengd said:

Ummm, not quite correct I'm afraid!

 

The current account surplus is a result of the trade surplus, that means exports are higher than imports. But this has nothing to do with 1997 since that was caused by offshore borrowings in USD and a BOT where the foreign currency reserves were all tied up in long dated instruments hence they were unable to defend the currency.

 

BOT operates a managed float which means THB is soft pegged to USD, cross currency flows are therefore dictated by the USD/THB pair. And Thailand is indeed a safe haven currency at present and has been for quite some time, that's part of the reason why capital inflows or FDI hot money has been so strong. The recent two cuts in the lending rate was an attempt to cool those flows, which has worked to a large degree, but that has no impact on the trade surplus, which is why the currency remains strong.

 

 

I disagree . A safe currency yes during relative good times. A good place when times are good. But not a safe haven if things go south. Some unknowns have been injected. Don't see baht tanking, but weakness ...down to USD 33, I can see. I think the numbers have changed rapidly.

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

What happens over the next twelve months is not really relevant, that's kinda like looking at intraday exchange rates, not meaningful. The question is what will happen when the flu event is finally over, you didn't think it was going to last forever did you!

 

Let's say USD goes to 33 or even 34, so? Let's say tourism gets cut in half, so? Exports rose last month, let's say they fall for the next six months, I'm guessing most every country is going to be in that same boat, the difference is that Thailand has no meaningful external government debt and it has a years worth of GDP stashed away for a rainy day in FCR and gold.

 

 

 

I do not know when the virus ends. I do not know if this event acts as a catalyst to a Chinese potential slowing already warned of. Election fears in USA etc. I agree my forecast is shortsighted, to about as you say, a year out, that's why  I stop at 32. USD, EUR, GBP, may gain against Asian currencies in general. Again, you are correct , hard to see beyond a year. But 12 mo is relevant for 12'months.

And another thing: My monthly direct deposit exchange rates to USD:

Oct 2.     30.5

Nov 1.     30.02

Nov 29.   30.06

Jan 2.     29.95

Jan 7.     30.00

Jan 31.    30.97

Rate right now: 31.657 Oanda interbank.

The baht is losing steam.

First 32, next 33 to USD. That's my call. The economic fallout is just getting started. The only question is how bad will it get. Chinese shipping downturn? Calculate that. Thai tourist downturn? Calculate that.

I pay attention. Markets are weak, and voices are starting to sound like a load of "happy face" talk. Nervousness is in the air. The baht is not a safe haven. It simply is a strong currency when things are safe. It's no longer safe.

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You need to get a new man, the one you have will not be the candidate.

 

 

Which pulls the rug from under everything else you said thereafter.

What are you even talking about?

4 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

You stated the votes were illegal voters.

Not so, they are citizens who voted

I stated my point quite clearly and stand by every word I said. If you import 20 million illegal aliens they have babies who grow up to vote. Exactly why California is now Democrat!

I never stated what you said. 

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Paris Accords are strictly voluntary. There is no enforcement mechanism. So no one is being forced to do anything.

No one, including Sanders, has said, to turn the tap off immediately on petroleum production. What is proposed is a building a smart grid and investing heavily in renewable R&D to stop burning fossil fuels ASAP. As the IMF reports, in 2017 the US economy subsidized fossil fuels to the tune of something like 645 billion dollars. 

As for Sanders threats to prosecute oil industry executives. He proposed it because as we now know, Exxon, for one, conducted very extensive research into the dangers of CO2-caused global warming and scientists pointed out the dangers of increased CO2 levels long ago to its executives.. Not only did Exxon ultimately ignore them, but it subsidized organizations such as the Heartland Institute (the same institute that used to be in the pay of Big Tobacco) to promote denialism. Whether there is a legally sustainable criminal case to be made against oil company executives, I don't know. What I do know is that the US Supreme Court refused Exxon's attempts to block  the Massachusetts AG's investigation of Exxon.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07012019/exxon-climate-fraud-investigation-supreme-court-ruling-massachusetts-attorney-general-healey

 

 

Voluntary to join, and no enforcement. Why is an international agreement even required? And it is ridiculous to blame oil execs for what fuels all of mankind's progress. Sanders said what I said he said. There is no denialism. There is only a requirement, a honest one, that science be allowed to do what science does. Building a smart grid is a reasonable expenditure on its face, provided it is not a pork barrel that feeds party representatives pockets. Public programs can easily be called what they are not.

7 minutes ago, rikard t said:

29k baht flight ticket.

 

OK so you're out about $1k USD. Did he take your info with promise to pay back?

Scam or not you did a good deed. I commend you for telling everyone, just in case he is a scammer. Good man!

He asked you for money? How much?

26 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Individuals, businesses and governments across the globe are adopting non fossil fuel energy, the trend is accelerating.

 

The adoption of non fossil fuel energy sources, reduces demand for fossil fuels and therefore I inevitably will brings about a reduction in the cost of fossil fuels.

 

And here’s the good bit, renewable energy sources rely on technology and products that, unlike commodities such as fossil fuels, become cheaper as the market grows.

 

The movement away from fossil fuels is underway, it is not the sudden banning of fossil fuels as employees in your straw man arguments.

 

Everything that you just said is true, except for the last line. I currently have a man running for President of the United States who has said that's he wants to throw oil executives in jail, ban fracking, nationalize the entire American power grid, and the fossil fuels industry, and therefore I assume ban new drilling projects in places such as the Anwar. He has also said he wants to nationalize the entire healthcare industry, and based upon what he says about American pharmaceutical companies he wants to severely restrict their profit margins, and thereby limit their ability to compete, and bring new product to market. In short he is calling for what I think could reasonably be called a government takeover of substantial sectors of the US economy. I assume the number of executive orders he would issue would dwarf all Presidents before him.

He has been unable, by his own admission on live television, to put a pricetag on his plans. Not even a reasonable estimate. 

I will stop right there.

Now, let's talk about the IPCC, and for the sake of argument, that all of their best guesstimates, assumptions, and projections are 100% correct. 

Let's also assume the USA, signs onto Paris agreement's. It gets a bit tricky now sir. You have to thoroughly read them, and understand a bit of wealth transfer is taking place within them. You need to be comfortable with that.

Next you have to really understand what the IPCC is really recommending to policy makers. After you read, it should be noticed by you that it is all a bit vague, with all the discussion of UN development goals, and economic justice etc.

OK we are on the same page? Am I being unkind?

Now let's go back your earlier assertions about renewable fuels etc. I say great! So we agree.

So please tell me what fuel will be used for international shipping?

What fuel used for aircraft, for vehicles?

Are you proposing everyone go nuclear?

Build more hydro electric dams, restrict more rivers?

Are you suggesting the USA, UK, etc turn to isolationism to restrict international trade? We could do that. Including changing our defense posture, we could do that too.

Ground all aircraft except essential?

Ban auto and boat racing, and recreational vehicles?

After all ten years to act or we miss 1.5

Or we could simply continue the search for alternative fuels, and deploy them as available, and work within our own countries to mitigate effects of a changing climate within our own nations as possible.

Which does not entail potential drastic upset of the global economy. Food for thought. Am I playing nice? Is anyone mad?

12 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I think I'd enjoy a game of cricket with you. Everything would be going through to the wicketkeeper.

The closest I have ever been to a game of cricket is on the beach with a tennis ball and stacked empty beer cans for wickets. As I recall over 40 years back, I didn't do that bad.

4 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

Next plan is to hand out face masks with warning triangles, immediate deportation for any refusers. 

Ah what the hell, I am wearing one already Air Quality at 164. And as I walk I keep an eye open for rabid dogs, especially cross bread abandoned wild born pitbulls. 

I did a similiar diet.  Mornings Black cofee no sugar, a brisk walk and 30 min workout around 1p. First meal around 3p  a light meal around 6. Heavy protein, light carbs. A cheat one day on weekend. Felt great lost 15K. Kept to it a year.