RayC

It's good news that you now accept the principles behind sample size calculation and statistical inference. I agreed umpteenth posts ago that imo the headline overstated the findings. It's to do with both. The "sensationalist journalism" does not negate the verity and validity of the survey's findings no matter how hard you try to suggest that it does.

It confirms nothing of the sort but your illogical arguments no longer surprise me.

Maybe this link will help? https://byjus.com/sample-size-formula/ If not, can I suggest that you search for "Sample size formula (calculation)"; "Introduction to Statistics"; "Basic Statistics", etc. I'm sure that there will be something on the web which will answer any questions you might have about sample sizes and Statistics in general.

It appears that you have to pay for the full survey. Sorry but I'm not that inquisitive. https://www.opiniumresearch.co.uk/faq.aspx#FAQLink3 ('I want to buy to some market research').

You're welcome. A simple way to avoid any further misunderstandings/ misinterpretation on my part would be for you to offer direct answers my questions And I didn't say that you did. I simply pointed out that you often seem to take issue with articles which are negative wrt Brexit. Actually you also cast doubt about how a sample size of 2000-odd can be considered representative of the wider UK electoral population. If you now accept that this is possible then great.

Are you a Brexit supporter? As it's a direct question, I don't expect an answer. You may never have explicitly stated your stance re Brexit but I cannot recall you posting positively about 'Remain' and/or the EU. On the other hand, there are numerous examples such as this where you try to find fault in articles which protray Brexit in a negative light. So, yes I am making an assumption about your position re Brexit but not without reason. o es, I am making an assumption aboutyour position re Brexit but not without any foundation. No twisting and turning on my part. I have made my objections to your original statement clear. I have posed a number of questions to you, none of which you have addressed directly, let alone answered: The only person guilty of evasion is you. It would have saved a lot of time if you have accepted that your provisos about " ... unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on" are without foundation, and do not invalidate the results of the survey which conclude that more of the UK electorate perceive Brexit to have had a negative, rather than a positive, impact. You are now reduced to outright falsehoods. I have looked back over my posts in this thread and, as far as I can see, the only occasion in which I have used "say" in any of it's forms in our exchanges is to confirm that I have understood you correctly i.e. "Are you saying that ...", to which you replied "Yes". (Incidentally, this is also about the only occasion that I can recall where you have answered one of my questions directly): I choose my words carefully because I know how pedantic you are. You accuse me of the fault of which you are guilty. Your constant evasion seemingly knows no bounds. Imo this is typical behaviour of someone who, having had the flaws in their argument laid bare for all to see, is unable and unwilling to admit to their error.

I love the people who cast doubt on the validity of survey results about without, seemingly, having much idea about statistical inference or Statistics (as a discipline) in general. The trials for Pfizer's COVID vaccine had 46,000 participants. (Incidentally, a relatively large sample size. Final phrase drug trials typically have 1 - 3,000 participants). The world's population is 7.9 billion. Presumably, using your rationale, we shouldn't have had any faith in the verity and validity of the Pfizer vaccine or any other drug for that matter. (I do hope that my last paragraph won't cause the conspiracy theorists to awaken).

There are many as have been pointed out. Look back over the thread for examples To repeat again: You are unable to point to any flaws in this survey's methodology. The basics of statistical inference have been explained to you. You seem unwilling to accept these tenets (without explaining why) and appear, by extension, to question the validity of Statistics as a discipline. I agreed that imo 'The Guardian's' headline overstated the findings but not for the reason you imply. That may well be true and ....? It doesn't make the findings of the survey any less true. The agenda I have in commenting here is to correct what I see as misinformation put forward by Brexiters such as yourself. This survey's results clearly show that in a number of areas, more of the UK electorate perceive Brexit as having a negative impact than a positive one. As a Brexiter this does not fit your narrative (agenda) so you object to the findings. Unfortunately for you, your objections are based on a false argument which you refuse to acknowledge. Simple.

No selective reading on my part; selective answering on yours. Why do you find it so difficult to answer questions directly? Actually, that's a rhetorical question: The answer is obvious. By doing so, you will highlight the flaws and inconsistencies in your argument. You do not make your views clear; you imply things. Your very first comment in this thread (reproduced below) implies - without stating explicitly - that the methodology of this study is somehow flawed and that the findings are not representative of the wider UK population. Even after the basics of survey methodology are explained to you e.g. sampling frames, random sampling, etc. you persist with your objections. When I challenge you directly to describe the flaws in the survey's methodology and/or supply a link which does so, you cannot. Instead, you make some cryptic remark and insist that your views are clear. So, one last try try: Do you believe that the methodology of the survey in question is flawed? If so, can you please explain how? _-----------+++++++++++ "Just over 2000 polled. Not a clear majority of Britons. A majority of those polled, by the Guardian, at an unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on."

That's a cryptic response. One - possibly two - simple question(s): Do you believe that the survey was not conducted in a statistically sound manner? If so, do you have any evidence to support that view?

That is by definition true but - as I and others explained previously and repeatedly - assuming that this survey was conducted in a statistically sound manner it can be considered representative of the wider population. However, I was careless with my phrasing. Like 'The Guardian' I ignored the 'Dont knows'. What I should have said was: "The results are plain for all to see, and the only logical conclusion that can be drawn from them is that more of the UK electorate perceive Brexit to have been a failure than a success up to now." I have long forgotten - assuming I ever knew - the formulas for calculating sample sizes (I'm certain that I was never able to prove the formulas). Nevertheless, I accept the formulas as being correct. Apparently you do not. Google defines Statistics as "the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample" You seem to be questioning the validity of this statement. There are a multitude of statistical texts online which might be able to answer the questions you appear to have regarding Statistics as a discipline. I can only suggest that you have a look at some of them.

As I said, we obviously have a different sense of humour Maybe in your opinion not mine. It's not only our sense of humour which differs. It's our definition of repercussion and news Have a look here for starters if you want to see some in-depth articles discussing the negative effects of Brexit. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/?_sft_theme=the-economics-of-brexit If that doesn't sate your appetite, there is also an informative video from the FT (available on their website or YouTube) about the consequences of Brexit. The OBR have a report as well. There are far too many other sources to list here. Presumably the survey's objective was simply to investigate whether people perceived Brexit as having a positive or negative impact and not to explore the reasons why they held their views. The reason why 'The Guardian' commissioned the survey and published the results is irrelevant. The results are plain for all to see, and the only logical conclusion that can be drawn from them is that the UK electorate perceive Brexit to have been a failure up to now. Seems to be some circular reasoning there? So this all part of 'The Guardians' plan to get people to vote LibDem?

Have you heard the one about a majority of survey respondents who consider that Brexit is harming the UK economy? Obviously we have a different sense of humour and imo I can't see that statement having the masses rolling in the aisles.

It's there in the responses to the various questions. For example, over 50% of respondents think that Brexit is having a negative impact on the economy. I'd call that a pretty serious repercussion (and news).

I think the headline overstates the results but not for the reasons you infer i.e. that you cannot extrapolate the findings of this survey to the wider UK electorate. Assuming that the survey methodology was sound - and I can't find any articles suggesting otherwise - then the results can be said to be representative of the views of the British electorate as a whole. However, for most of the questions whilst the percentage of respondents who believe that Brexit is having a negative impact is vastly superior to the percentage believing it to be positive, in most cases that number is slightly under 50%. Brexiters shouldn't take too much comfort from this fact as, in most cases, it would require almost 100% of the 'Dont knows' to change their mind and think of Brexit in a favourable light to materially alter the perception that Brexit is having a negative impact. A pretty unlikely event imo.

It's news because the repercussions of the Brexit vote are still evolving. It will cease to be news if a line can be drawn under and a decision made about the absolute success or failure of it.

Why is it "clearly not news"? I'd argue the exact opposite. Brexit is arguably the biggest UK domestic event for 50+ years. The fact that newspapers - 'The Guardian' is not alone - continue to discuss the merits of the decision seems extremely apt. Yes that would be news. It would also defy logic as the overwhelming body of evidence suggests that, to date, Brexit has been an abject failure. I'm guessing that they want to publish news. The fact that this news supports their editorial stance obviously isn't a coincidence but would you expect 'The Express' to suppress an anti-EU poll/ story? I wouldn't. I don't understand the US comparison but, as I mentioned in the previous paragraph, there is a large body of evidence supporting the view that, to date, Brexit has been a failure. Then at least we agree about that.

Your original post: "Just over 2000 polled. Not a clear majority of Britons. A majority of those polled, by the Guardian, at an unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on." That seems to question the methodology and if you question the methodology, surely it must cast doubt upon the results?

So are you saying the following: 1) By conducting this survey Opinium hopes it might increase its' customer base (imo a reasonable assumption) 2) By publishing the results of this survey 'The Guardian' hopes to increase its readership (again imo a reasonable assumption) 3) If the results of the survey had not been what 'The Guardian' considers "favourable" the results might not have been published (a much more contentious assumption but for the sake of argument let's assume this is true). My question is: How does any of this cast doubt on the validity of the survey results?

There are almost certainly some immigrants to the UK who fall into one or more of those categories. However imo the vast majority do not, and many of those that do try to remove themselves from that classification.

Exactly what point has been confirmed?

"I'm not a racist, xenophobe, Putin apologist, etc but .... " If you continue to put those who point out the flaws in your arguments on 'Ignore', you'll be talking to yourself before too much longer.

The Crown Estate is a property management company. If the institution of the Monarchy ceased to exist, the Crown Estate would continue to generate revenue and profit. I don't understand the principle behind linking the sum allocated to the HoS to perform their official duties to the revenue/ profits made by a company, especially given that the Monarch has no role in the day-to-day operation of the company. I am dubious to say the least, that the level of expenditure associated with the Monarchy is justified and offers 'value for money'. For example, "The total Sovereign Grant for 2022-23, amounted to £86.3 million (2021-22: £86.3 million), which is made up of a core grant of £51.8 million which funds official travel, property maintenance and the operating costs of The Sovereign’s household." (Source: https://www.royal.uk/media-pack/financial-reports-2022-23) compared with the costs associated with running the Office of the President of Ireland - an elected HoS -which amounted to €4.8m in 2021 (https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40729734.html). I accept that differences in functions, etc make a direct comparison of the costs of servicing the two HoS' households difficult, but I also would need some convincing that the cost of running the Royal Household should be 10 times that of the Irish President's Office. Imo the idea that the Institution of the Monarchy 'costs in' is, at best, unproven.

I'm almost certain that the amount paid to an elected UK HoS - whoever it might be - would be substantially less than the annual £86m Sovereign Grant awarded to Charles.

1319 marriages in the UK were found to be sham between 2016 - 2022; that's an average of less than 200 per year and 1.2% of the total number of cases highlighted as suspicious. You consider this to be a "significant" problem: I don't. I would consider it an act of folly - and a misallocation of resources - to spend any additional time, money and effort investigating matters further given the current figures. If the number of referrals increase then my view might change. Your latest link contains data from the 2013 report which you previously referred to, and even the more recent data is from 2019 so, yet again, it is outdated and largely irrelevant.