There seems to be a lot of certainty about poor prospects for the Thai economy and how inept the Thai government is about forecasting and managing it. I would advise readers here not to take actions based on these inconsequential opinions. Most of the pessimism on this forum is exaggerated and uninformed.
A 20% decline in a stock market index from 'recent' high is not a recession. It is the classic definition of a 'bear market.' A recession is not defined by a bear market. It is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The Thai economy expanded last quarter.
The S&P is down about 16% from its high over a year ago. The Dow is down about 12%. The U.S. has had one quarter of contraction and it will not be known if the U.S. is in a recession until August.
The U.S. is not in a bear market, and we do not know if the U.S. is in a recession. Mainstream economists in the U.S. believe there is 30% chance of recession next quarter.
The current weakness in the baht is good for exports which is one of the previously (and correctly) forecasted growth areas by the Thai government. Exports are up an incredible 18.9% y/y in March 2022.
Thai GDP is growing at 2.2% y/y as of Q1 2022. On top of that, tourism is likely to grow and has huge potential upside for further economic growth.
Household debt at 95% is in line with many industrialized countries. There are several countries in Europe with household debt over 100% of GDP. The U.S. is 75% and the U.K is 87%. Thai government debt is 58% of GDP which is far less than most industrialized nations.
I would like to know what actions (investments, sales, hedges, shorts, futures, puts, calls, etc.) the pessimists here are taking based on their opinions. Personally, I have made recent investments in Thai real estate which is an indirect bet on tourism and the baht. I am also invested in baht futures and oil which is a major Thai export. I have sold other holdings to take these positions and I am considering more investments related to the Thai economy. I have no shorts, put options, or reverse EFTs for Thai or global markets.
I do not have great faith in the Thai government, but I believe they are generally correct about their assessments and their policies with respect to the economy. I believe Thailand and their relatively inexpensive and educated workforce is positioned for growth into the next few years and beyond.
The Thai COVID policies had a devastating effect on Thai economy, especially tourism, but in general were/are commensurate with other Southeast Asian nations. Thailand has a growing economy with newly developed sustainable strength in exports. Thailand now has an opportunity to build a new lower-volume up-scale tourist industry that their economy is less dependent on. The Thai government is making policies and infrastructure investments to support that very strategy.
The biggest challenges and risks I see are uncontrollable factors such as war in Ukraine and interdependence with China.