Hi from France

economically it's not "more pain", it "much more pain" and to a large extend economy is not just about win-win so we do prefer having japanese automotive plants in the UE rather than the UK let's have a look that was really insulting and these simple things explain why the situation with Northen Ireland is suddenly solved. No magic, just basic courtesy and it works well now, maybe too well @JonnyF do we agree on that one? indeed : I am not paying the pension of Farage ! https://archive.is/Ns7Z1#selection-737.0-753.15

Ahhh - I see you are able to predict the future. Why didn't you tell us that before? I can indeed, anyone can for example the future of the British car manufacturing is being set in stone right now, investments today have consequences that extend beyond the present moment. In this regard, we not only have learned a lot since 2016, but we already know what's next in the automotive industry. Is this news to you? Really?

the 5 year impact is there already since brexit started being taken into account by businesses in 2016. .. so you meant "the 10-year impact?" 2026 ? Besides immediate issues like tomatoes and the like, there is a very simple way to know where the British economy is headed : investment. Investment made today and in recent years give a very accurate picture of what the next years will be, the future I suppose you acknowledge Brexit has erected manpower and trade barriers for UK businesses ? And also for foreign companies that used Britain as a European base? Brexit been contributing to labor shortages and sapping investment. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64623488 so back to we already have a 5-years picture and for the next 5 years investments already tells us the tale: "oven-ready" sunlit uplands? They are not in sight they were not there in the short term they were not there in the medium term (6+ years now) .. and they won't be there in the long term (missing out on investments already tells the tale) now maybe you meant "we meet in 2028 to assess investments and know what 2033 will look like?"

20 or 40 years, this is a distant future, so right now it doesn't matter. Regardless of the fact British public opinion is now one of the most pro-EU in Europe, the UK is out. Issues we could discuss : "what happened to get us there", The Economist just published a provocative article, that we can read / comment as a starting point (?) "What is going to happen" in the medium term. Long term might be membership in a very federalist Europe or not, but it's too far away to really matter.

bah no one is "objective", you just need to recognize their arguments (which are mostly mine as well and are indeed backed by solid facts over many, many years) : that's what matters. we think experience has shown again and again the EU is better off without Britain as a member. This is sad indeed, but having Britain with all the prerogatives and privileges of permanent membership, including the right of veto has been a drag all along.

yay ! now what for the future? My take is Britain ended up spending forty years inside the UE negotiating opt-outs.. and now we're in for forty years out negotiating opt-ins

beside denying the UK was at best an annoyance, at worst a free-rider all those years : a summary of the British government’s attitude at the European 2011 summit save the Tony Blair years, the UK has always been a drag : it was a pleasant surprise the UK slammed the door on its own initiative (I wish Hungary would do the same, though Orban is not *that* stupid)

you are too actually UK constant obstruction is so famous it was featured in Yes Minister ????

what was that then? Brexit was sold as "oven-ready", making people and the country wealthier as well as helping the NHS thanks to "Brexit benefits" what has been achieved is headlines of a famous brexiter newspaper before/after

didn't say "all brits" but what you hold here is the very typical british view of the EU as a big market with no political power. The remainer argument I read over and over is not about a common European project, but about making more money, fostering economic growth etc... nothing wrong with that but it shows having the UK as a EU member was a mistake all along. I'm fine with having lots of collaborations with the UK, as long as we are not again taken for a ride. Fine with EFTA, but no full membership, the British influence was detrimental. I'm surprised you don't know about NextGenerationEU (EU bond, €800 billion to fund the recovery), REPowerEU, the Stand Up for Ukraine campaign, joint procurement in defence investments: all of these major advances would have been watered down or vetoed by the brits. I couldn't care less that the short-term economic effect of Brexit on the EU has been negative. so for the European project, Brexit was great. We have a stronger EU (and many problems indeed, but we can face them in a better way) in the longer term, we'll probably have the UK back in the single market, though we need to be very careful = we have to take back control of our €uro forex, bonds, and stock markets Brexit has been great for public opinion across Europe

You make the usual British mistake : the European project is about much more than economy, it's political, it's about defending our common interests when the West and liberal democraties are in comparative decline to totalitarian (China), or illiberal (Turkey, India, Russia...) countries. In this regard, Brexit (combined with Covid and the Ukraine crises) has allowed huge political advances that used to be vetoed by the brits when they had power in the EU. Brexit has proved a timely and very good thing for Europe. For the UK it doesn't make a lot of sense: idiotic populist politicians and media have taken control of the country for years, it accelerates issues with the Union and of course there are economic issues with "global britain" for example, a trade deal with New Zealand, Australia or now Mexico makes no sense for UK farmers Actually, UK farmers have much more stakes in common with European farmers, politics and economy are interwined. .

"Nobody else has that"? But Scotland might hope to get the same deal ?

about the “Stormont brake” https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres...tsheet.pdf.pdf Citation : for the for the brake to apply, power sharing at Stormont would have to be restored. That would require the DUP to allow the assembly to start sitting (by backing the election of a speaker) and to lift its boycott on participating in the power-sharing executive. If the DUP were to continue to boycott the executive, the “Stormont brake” would not apply. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rthern-ireland unclear to me : in the case EU law is blocked, I'm not sure what the UE will/can do

Full text : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/feb/27/rishi-sunak-brexit-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-northern-ireland-brexit-deal-uk-politics-live?page=with:block-63fcde1d8f083ec219f73112#block-63fcde1d8f083ec219f73112 This sentence in the Political Declaration suggests a promising new commitment to actually implementing what you sign up to:

Uk currency is the result of what the UK economy has turned into : an emerging market. https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-emerging-market-crisis-gdp-growth-economic-policy/

Lying is common for politicians, the real issue with Johnson was more bull<deleted>ting that good old lying. And of course many other issues. Just take economy: Brexit has produced a situation where a 10%-plus devaluation of the pound (against the average of other leading currencies) has not even achieved a boost to exports. The whole country became 10% poorer, and got nothing in return.

Labour has a plan to fix the problem (...) https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/23/labour-unveil-plans-to-seek-limited-changes-to-brexit-deal Minimalist, looks like minor fixes Do you think it could work ? Renegociation still means the eu would ask for something in return, what would it be ? .

Hi again ! 6 years after the referendum and one year and a half after effective brexit (=the TCA), a long summative article in the Financial Times (Free Access https://archive.ph/FTkAM) Excerpts