MicroB

April 14

On 4/11/2024 at 2:15 PM, El Matador said:

Well with Trump as potential de facto leader of this mega-alliance I don't see how things could go wrong...

Trump has said he wants to take the US out of NATO. He actually can't, but he can stop cooperation. Article 5 isn't mandatory.

p-ed

MOD briefings are baking in a Trump win as worse case. I think that is unlikely, but we have to assume that the US over the next few years will be ineffectual as a friend because of political paralysis brought about by the pro-Russian faction of the GOP.

As for this article; SCMP, which propagandises for Chinese soft power, picked up a Business Insider article, which is borderline clickbait, which picked up a Bloomberg Op-Ed writted by a retired SACEUR who last served over 10 years ago. These days he's paid to write about stuff.

There is already a high degree of formalised cooperation between Japan and N ATO, through MOUs. There is no need for formal treaties, and it would be of no surprise that NATO is looking for global partners.

Incidently, NATO members don't necessarily bring military capabilities. The Baltic States have no significant military. But they offer strategic capabiltiies.

If NATO is expanded, then Article 6 might need to be addressed. Most people are generally aware of Article 5, Article 4 less so. Article 6 defined NATO's area of operations, where Article 5 can be invoked, based on latitude. It was written in to make sure NATO wasn't fighting Britain and France's post-colonial wars.It has been suggested that changes to Article 6 can facilitate Georgia and Ukraine's membership (both have border disputes, but Article 6 can be rewritten to exclude the areas defined by the border disputes). Hence, Article 5 was not invoked in 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. Technically, a strike on Pearl harbour is not an Article 5 moment.

April 8

On 4/7/2024 at 4:23 AM, kiwikeith said:

That story still to come, also how he got money??

Maybe a stolen identity, who knows, overstayed 27 years but still had money, love to know more about this story.

Lived in plain sight and a prominant member of the local expat community, renewed UK passport under fake name, and a nice motor yacht. Failing health and ran out of money. There is a lot of information about him out there. I'll not give him any more publicity. He can rot.

".

April 2

17 minutes ago, OJAS said:

Richard Burrows, 80, was arrested on Thursday after flying back to the UK from Thailand, nearly three decades after a warrant was issued for his arrest.

So it looks like we may well have the PNR data list for the flight in question to thank for this vile individual finally receiving his long-overdue comeuppance.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/passenger-name-record-data/passenger-name-record-data

Or maybe he gave himself up because he is dying and wants the NHS, via the Prison Service, to look after him. Might even end up having a chocolate overdose like Rolf Harris had inside HMP Stafford.

A trial is needed first.

Obviously a fake UK passport on the list will throw a massive red flag.

April 1

9 hours ago, Expat Tom said:

Kindly show me the peer reviewed major medical studies from world famous medical institutions that show that paper or cloth masks filer anything other than dust......I won't hold my breath.

Some reading material for you (all peer reviewed)

Lima MMS, Cavalcante FML, Macêdo TS, Galindo Neto NM, Caetano JÁ, Barros LM. Cloth face masks to prevent Covid-19 and other respiratory infections. Rev Lat Am Enfermagem. 2020;28:e3353. doi: 10.1590/1518-8345.4537.3353. Epub 2020 Aug 10. PMID: 32785565; PMCID: PMC7417132.

Jain M, Kim ST, Xu C, Li H, Rose G. Efficacy and Use of Cloth Masks: A Scoping Review. Cureus. 2020 Sep 13;12(9):e10423. doi: 10.7759/cureus.10423. PMID: 33062538; PMCID: PMC7553716.

Collard MK, Vaz A, Irving H, Khan MF, Mullis D, Brady D, Nolan K, Cahill R. Reusable cloth masks in operating theatre. Br J Surg. 2023 Sep 6;110(10):1260-1263. doi: 10.1093/bjs/znad104. PMID: 37119205.

Jefferson T, Del Mar CB, Dooley L, Ferroni E, Al-Ansary LA, Bawazeer GA, van Driel ML, Jones MA, Thorning S, Beller EM, Clark J, Hoffmann TC, Glasziou PP, Conly JM. Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2020 Nov 20;11(11):CD006207. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub5. Update in: Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2023 Jan 30;1:CD006207. PMID: 33215698; PMCID: PMC8094623.

MacIntyre CR, Seale H, Dung TC, Hien NT, Nga PT, Chughtai AA, Rahman B, Dwyer DE, Wang Q. A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers. BMJ Open. 2015 Apr 22;5(4):e006577. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006577. PMID: 25903751; PMCID: PMC4420971.

Shimasaki N, Okaue A, Kikuno R, Shinohara K. Comparison of the Filter Efficiency of Medical Nonwoven Fabrics against Three Different Microbe Aerosols. Biocontrol Sci. 2018;23(2):61-69. doi: 10.4265/bio.23.61. PMID: 29910210.

If you understand how a car air filter works, then you will have some understanding how medical filters work.

Firstly, medical air filters do not work like a sieve; ie filtering materials based on a size cutoff. Given a virus is 0.02um, you would likely suffocate with such a mask. But you do know HEPA filters work, don't you.

Car air filters and medical air filter work off a similar principle; that the direction of brownian motion on a small particle can be disrupted by electrostatic charge.

Bacteria and viruses tend to be negatively charged, due to the presence of things like teichoic acids. That makes them quite sticky when it comes to a positively charged surface. Plain cotton is neutral. Dyed cotton is weakly positive (thats how you get cotton to take up dye). Woven cotton fibers are quite evenly distributed, in a mesh. That means the chances of of a small particle coming close to these surfaces is less than a randomly woven material. The chances of a particle coming into close proximity to a charged fiber might be increased with a double layer of cotton, ideally with the second layer at 45 degrees to the first.

The problem with cotton is when it becomes wet, it becomes negatively charged, so it doesn't work well.

Now bring in the car air filter. Most people will know the standard air filter is usually made of paper, a randomly woven cellulose material, and assume it will sufficiently filter particles of a certain size that might harm your engine. Some might also know these filters can be quite restrictive to air flow, and cause loss of power. So an upgrade might be to use a cotton filter from someone like K&N. Ah, but you can't just fit a K&N dry. It has to be oiled first. The oil, lightly applied to the cotton, gives a decently charged surface to capture most of those dust particles, without impinging air flow. But K&Ns don't work in very dusty environments, where the average particle size, instead of being 3-5um, is more like 100um, where the particles have sufficient mass not to be affected by the charged oilm and just pass by.

Which is where the medical masks come in; they are generally not made from paper, but from spun polypropylene, polyurethane, polyacrylonitrile, polystyrene, polycarbonate, polyethylene, or polyester. These material are quite strongly positively charged (like nylon trousers), and also they are water resistant; water is not going to change that inherant property. N95 masks are not rated to remove 95% of viruses, but 95% of a standardised mix of particles.

Whether cloth masks "work" depends on the policy objective; what is your definition of the measure having worked. Clearly there is a hierarchy of masks, with homemade masks at the bottom, and fully sealed hepa filtered active air units at the top.

The effect of masks in controlling transmission is additive. The more masks worn, the greater the knock down. Two individual with N95 masks face each other. One exhales. 5% of the viral particles he has exhaled escape. Assuming the other person gets the full brunt of the other person's breath, he gets 0.25% of the particles breathed out, which is better than the 5% he would have been exposed to without a mask. For a surgeon, thats probably enough, given all the other measures put in place to reduce nosocomial infection.

Now you have to consider the infectious dose (ID50); the number of bacteria or virons required to cause illness or death in 50% of participants. Generally this is lower for threat agents that are delivered direct to the blood rather than inaled. The body has its own measures, to knockdown the inhaled dose, such as saliva, cilia and the like. So that also contributes to the perceived efficacy of a mas material. ie the efficacy will vary depending on how well the threat agent does against the body's own defences. eg. anthrax spores are bullet proof, and negotiating the body's primary defences is super easy, barely an inconvenience.

The ID50 of most viruses is usually around 1000; so 1000 of these have to get through before they will probably give you problems. But ID50 is an average; for some people, its much lower, for others, its much higher. The Amerithrax attacks following 911 highlighted that, when anthrax laced letters were sent through the US post. No one in the postal service got sick, despite exposure, but the recipiants did.

So that relates to the policy objective. Are you hoping to eliminate all infections through a cloth mask policy? No, because it will likely fail. A manufactured cotton mask, at best, has 25% efficiency, will reduce risk to another mask wearer by 44% and that is probably not enough to eliminate risk of infection to all. But it will reduce the risk of infection to some.

Is the policy objective to reduce hospital admissions? Yes it will work, but the problem is the limited efficacy of the mask is impacted greatly by how it is worn, and the design. Plus there is a time factor; even if correctly worn, the performance degrades over time. How well it works is largely down to the etiology of the virus. Even before COVID-19, it was known that flu would affect people in different ways, with some being very seriously affected. A test was being developed to identify specific biomarkers associated with high risk. The risk of COVID-19 becoming serious was not simply a case of cardiovascular health, weight and immunorobustness, because there were exceptions. The fit young person developing issues. The 95 year old lung cancer with one lung being barely affected (yes, this was a case). Those comorbidities might also be the result of genetic traits.

Is the policy objective to be a nudge factor alongside other control measures? I believe it did. Masks were a reminder that you should do something, as simple as keeping a distance, no coughing in someone's face etc.

If you want good studies on population use of masks, hospital studies are not them. That's because hospital studies are concerned about the efficacy of masks among a very niche part of the population; sick, hospitalised people. And the masks are not operating in isolation, they are part of a layered approach to infection control.

The best studies are those prepared for the military, and these are mostly restricted. There are some in the public domain:

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1213764.pdf

This is not a comment on the proposed policy/prank, but a reaction to "paper masks don't work".

March 28

5 hours ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

You need 25 years for a full pension. Higher education does not take 20 years. Working overseas is a life choice. The NHS is free for British citizens (and just about anyone these days). Benefits are the same, but it isn't much if you have blown everything else on self indulgence.

So you acknowledge that a Briton living overseas can return to the UK and sponge off the State despite never paying a penning in tax of NI?

March 27

9 hours ago, sambum said:

You have a bad habit of misquoting people to suit your agenda:-

"Once again, no time frame, so meaningless statement and the previous correspondant claimed to have lived in a "city" in the North West of England, while ranting on about kids being kidnapped (ignoring that the most notorious case that happened when he was a kid), heroin (while saying taking pills was totally fine, and elsewhere, supporting cocaine usage), moaning about having his religion being changed"

"Once again, no time frame,..." who else on this part of the thread didn't quote a time frame?

"Claimed to have lived in a "city" in the North West of England" Once again pure speculation on your part that someone is making false claims.

"...ranting on about kids being kidnapped....." Who said anything about kids "being kidnapped"?

"....heroin (while saying taking pills was totally fine, and elsewhere, supporting cocaine usage)"

YOU were the one who mentioned heroin, and I didn't say I supported cocaine usage - I said that cocaine could be injected or snorted, and at no time did I say that I supported either.

"....moaning about having his religion being changed"

Once again, pure conjecture on your part - I never mentioned ANYTHING about having my religion changed.

Misquotes from start to finish - you don't even qualify for a "Sad" emoticon!

Ok, obviously someone took over your account, because you never said any of these things:

Quote

I grew up in an era when (in my city at least) there were no brown or black or yellow faces.

Quote

I lived in the far North West of England

(Large scale immigration started 3 generations ago, so it is reasonable to ask for some sort of context tom a statement like "I had never seen a non-white person before when I was a child". There are some parts of the UK where I might think that would be a reasonable statement at a certain point in time. But as you intimate, you came of age in the 1960s, having been completely oblivious to the concept of a yellow/brown/black face, despite living in one of the Northern cities, except in the pages of your geography text books (grammar school?), then in your early 20s, become an avid listener of Enoch Powell, while at the same time being a habitual drug user in order to get by in some sort of musical entourage, I would naturally raise my eyebrows at that statement (whether any of it was true, that in fact, you were an ultra right wing hippy, and an admirer of Powell, when in fact, as you approach the end of your life, you have turned into your dad (who probably didn't like the idea of children taking drugs).

Quote

I could go out and play alone in my street without fear of abduction or interference

(where I come from, "abduction" is kidnapping. It was a presumption on my part that you were describing yourself as a child. My mistake, you were describing yourself as an adult playing on the street without fear of "interferance" (rape)). If a child, pretty sad, that you had to play alone, no friends to play with. Hence later on turning to drugs to get on in life. Its a pretty strange to say, I suspect you are referring to the Rochdale case, something a lot of your ilk are obsessed with.

Quote

drugs were something you got from the doctor when you were ill

Quote

helped along by a few pills along the way, and later on, a bit of "Wacky Baccy

(You need to check your account credentials. Because someone else pretending to be you in a post admitted to being a cocaine user, as well as LSD. That same person though said they drew a line at "smack". Some one admitting to taking illicit oral narcotics, illegal hallucinogens, cannabis and cocaine I would suspect of having a drug problem and being used to coming into contact with organised crime (the drug dealers)). I don't know any criminals, you did, because how else did you purchase your drugs. Not from Boots.

Quote

then try to change the religion of my country into the religion of the country they were desperately trying to escape from

(My mistake, I didn't know you were a member of a sect/cult, and not part of the Established Church).

When you hijack a thread, be prepared to be taken to task with the statements that you make.

March 25

1 hour ago, stuandjulie said:

I lived in a mid sized town in the North West growing up and never saw a person of colour until I went to sea aged 16. My daughter (we lived in a suburb of Liverpool when she was growing up) was amazed to see her first person of colour aged 6.

Once again, no time frame, so meaningless statement and the previous correspondant claimed to have lived in a "city" in the North West of England, while ranting on about kids being kidnapped (ignoring that the most notorious case that happened when he was a kid), heroin (while saying taking pills was totally fine, and elsewhere, supporting cocaine usage), moaning about having his religion being changed (and he's probably like 90% of Britons, not really religious anyhow). He also ignored we tried to change their religion as well (missionaries etc).

This discourse started because Sam Bum decided, on a thread about the UK and Thailand exploring a possible partnership, to bring in a well known anti-immigrant (anti-Muslim) trope about a supposed Swiss mayor refusing a mosque to be built. He brought up the Muslim faith for some reason only known to himself. And then he brings up Race. Completely random and off topic to the matter in hand. Thread hijackers have to suck it up, when I see it for what it is, and he doesn't like it with home truths.

March 25

48 minutes ago, sambum said:

I'm impressed with your list of the negative things about the 50's and 60's, and I'm sure if I could be bothered, I could dig up an equally impressive things of positive things, but I have to say that your statement "The world you described in the 1950/60s is a fiction." is a load of codswallop - I lived through it, so I have first hand knowledge, whereas you being of a younger generation do not.

I had a reasonably good education, but my father having brought up 3 boys on his own (due to my mother passing away when I was 7) could not afford to send me to University (or either of my brothers, but that didn't stop one of them from ending up as an Interpreter in MI 6!) Not like my daughter who went to University and got a degree in English and can't spell! So your assumption regarding a wealthy background and "colour TV's" (Yes, "parrot whoosh" on that one - you missed the double entendre there about "TV's and colour" didn't you - admit it!) is way off the mark, and the absence of "brown, white and yellow skins" was due to the fact that I lived in the far North West of England, where the expeditions of "newcomers" hadn't yet reached, and when I had my tonsils out there was not a West Indian or any other kind of Indian nurse or doctor to be seen!

Soooo, I left school just as the Beatles came to prominence, and had the best teenage years I could have hoped for, and yes, helped along by a few pills along the way, and later on, a bit of "Wacky Baccy"! I also played in a group with proper musicians playing proper instruments - LIVE!!! But I never saw (or wanted to see) a needle in anybody's arm apart from hospital, or the Doctor's Surgery, when it was a simple job to get an appointment with your own Doctor - on the same day should you need it.

But, hey, "man" I'm sure that the "younger generation" of today have their good times - it's just very hard to see them through the cataracts!

You inferred the link between colour tv and race. Yes I did note your unintelligent quip; I get it. You refer to Afro-caribbean people as "coloured". You claim to have lived in a British city and never to have seen a yellow, black or brown face in the sixties. Not true.

You admit to taken illicit narcotics, but drew the line at heroin.

Better times now than those hateful years.

I was born in the 60s. My mum and dad were army. They couldn't afford to buy a TV until 1974, and even then, it was a B&W portable in Hong Kong. They managed to rent a colour TV by 1979. So if you had a colour TV, which you probably made up, in the 1960s, you were well off. And you probably saw "coloured" people in your North Western English City.

The reason you struggle to get an appointment is too many old people, and the government, on and off, blocking imported doctors.

Your time is over. By the time the next UK government works out this deal, you will likely be the proverbial 6 feet under.

March 25

59 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said:

I agree with you that there's not much talent to choose from on either side but my main issue with Cameron was the complete lack of planning for what should happen if people voted for Brexit.

No matter how remote he thought the chances of it happening were (& as we all know it did happen) he should have had a plan (or at least a plan for how to put a plan together) for what to do, but it felt like he had nothing & just ran away leaving it to others to pick up his mess.

I'm not saying that achieving Brexit is easy, nearly 8 years later there still doesn't seem to be a truly workable solution, but to be in that position & have absolutely no plan for what to do following the referendum is unforgivable.

Retreading an old path, his weakness was to have a referendum in the first place, to placate some idiots in his party, who then proceeded to undermine him throughout the campaign with frankly lies, inspired by an individual who had previously spent most of his working life in Russia. I understand why Cameron resigned; Brexit wasn't something he believed in, because it was idiotic, and has probably doomed the UK as a unitary state. Useful idiots indeed.

March 25

2 hours ago, George FmplesdaCosteedback said:

Because we have paid for them all our working life.

Not all of them. One could have gone to 6th Form college (Labour Party reform in the mid-70s); 2 years NI credited. Then 3 years undergrad, on a full grant (zero NI, unless you got a summer job), then postgrad (zero NI, no summers off), paid by the state. Then a job in the US, followed by middle east. Come back elderly, sick and impoverished because you've blown the lot on a wild life. Straight away get full NHS cover. You won't have much of a state pension, because you never paid in, but you will be entitled to pensioner's credit. NHS cover is nothing to do with how much you pay in, otherwise you are denying treatment for the chronically sick.

March 25

5 hours ago, sambum said:

"When was that grandad, 1920?" Suggest you get a new calculator! If it was 1920, that would make me 104 years of age! You're only about a quarter of a century out!

No, I'm referring to the 50's and 60's when the world was waking up to a new age of Rock & Roll, colour TV (Am I allowed to say that?) the Beatles, and the Pill!

Parrot whoosh. Sarcasm doesn't travel. But certainly, you are nearer the end than the beginning. My dad pegged it 2 years ago, aged 82.

You forgot Smallpox outbreaks in Bradford, London bombsites, 50s rationing, Union Movement, Mods v Rockers fights every bank holiday monday, Myrah Hindley and Ian Brady, 10 Rimington Place, Billy Graham, Cuban missile crisis, the Great Smog, the Great Flood of 53, Suez, Korea, Mau Mau. Drugs? The mods were into poppers; drug culture started with your post-war generation, and then you all went on strike in the 70s and became communists or joined the NF. Extra dark rose tinted spectacles I suspect, due to too much sun.

The world you described in the 1950/60s is a fiction. HMT Empire Windrush landed its famous load of passengers in 1948, mostly to help out in the nascent NHS, drive the buses that had no drivers, build the council houses where there were no builders. All to help people enjoy their rock and roll, colour tellies (you must have been from a very wealth background to enjoy that, no wonder you lived in a 100% white environment), having consequence-free sex (with Caribbean and Indian nurses no doubt helping to clean you up from that dose of the clap).

The only people trying to convert me are the god bothering Holy Joes from the Jehovahs Witnesses and Mormon Church banging on my door. I enjoy the ensuing banter as I eviscerate their beliefs and their book, in a polite manner. I'd do the same with others, but they keep to themselves it seems.

March 24

20 hours ago, sambum said:

I grew up in an era when (in my city at least) there were no brown or black or yellow faces.

When was that grandad, 1920?

Good old days, right.

https://eachother.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Mahesh-Upadhyaya1.jpg

https://rightsinfo.org/app/uploads/2018/11/Screen-Shot-2018-11-28-at-16.13.59-1024x636.png[

https://eachother.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Screen-Shot-2018-11-28-at-16.10.38.png

March 23

On 3/22/2024 at 3:23 PM, GinBoy2 said:

They are indeed.

There is a reason why tourist visas are so hard to get, because the history of Thai's overstaying!

In my wife's circle of Thai friends here in South Dakota, only her and one other came here legally, all the rest overstay until eventually they ended up marrying and getting an adjustment of status.

How many Thai's are in South Korea as overstay?

I bet anyone who lives outside Bangkok with a Thai wife knows at least one.

Good luck with this Mr Cameron, cos you're gonna need it, great story for illegal immigration control!

I know of a large number of Britons who went to the US on J-visas, which is a non-immigration visa aimed at academics, which you are not supposed to change to an immigration visa in the US. But they did, they got job offers in industry, and the employer fixed it with some made up job description. So comment on that, on the British people illegally entering the US, and taking US jobs.

That's basically how Elon Musk ended up in the US. He entered as a student, under false pretences, with the objective of getting a job in Silicon Valley. What he did was no better than a Thai lady getting married to stay. And they've probably done less harm than he has. None of them called a British man a "paedo" and got away with it.

March 23

4 hours ago, sambum said:

There was an article on BBC News many years ago which I have never forgotten.

The Mayor of a little village in Switzerland had been approached by the Muslims for his permission for them to build a mosque in the village.

His reply went something like this:- "People come to Switzerland, and to our village to see the lovely scenery - the lakes, the mountains with the snow capped peaks, and to appreciate the countryside and little houses that have remained the same for centuries - no skyscrapers or massive hotels because we and people who visit here like it the way that it is. So if you want to build a mosque, I suggest that you go back to the country that you came from to build it there - we don't want one here!"

He probably wouldn't get away with it today because he would be running the risk of offending somebody!

Unless the Muslims were Swiss born and bred. In the modern era, the first mosque wasn't built in Switzerland until 1963 (this was a nation happy to do business with the nazis....). That's enough time for 3 generations of Swiss to be born who were muslim. You still think they should go "home" or not practice their faith?

No, he wouldn't get away with it now, because we are better than that now. I grew up in an era when I would go down to the Connie club with mum and dad, and grandad would introduce a chap sitting next to him as "Sambo". I'd hate to go back to that era now.

March 23

On 3/22/2024 at 11:25 AM, bananafish said:

In exchange for a 90-day visa-waiver entry for UK, I'm all for it.

The issue is, when UK people are caught overstaying in Thailand, they just get deported without hassle. When the UK try to deport illegals, the whacky lefties step in and make it difficult for the government to enforce its own rules.

Keeping to the nation in question, rather than conflating issues (ie. maybe some people ought not be deported due to incompetance within the Home Office), generally the evidence is Thai wives/partners when given deportation orders, self deport, at no cost to HMG. A Malaysian-Chinese friend, who is a consultant surgeon in the NHS, married to an English nurse, kids, own house etc, was going through the process of getting ILR, which as you no doubt know, involves a period of purdah when one mustn't leave the UK, except under exceptional circumstances. He has no intention of gaining UK citizenship, as Malaysia doesn't allow dual nationality. He knows that means he will have less rights, and is content with that.

He was invited to be Best Man at a wedding in KL. He thought he would write to his case worker, seeking permission, thinking they would either say, yes, thats fine, no problem, or no, you cannot go. Instead he got a thrd answer; a deportation order, with 10 days to settle his affairs. I wish he had a "whacky left(y)" come to his aid. But no, he had to pay a very capitalist lawyer over £5000 to appeal his case. He got to stay, £5000 poorer, and the Sinophobic civil servant responsible for the incompetance, kept his job. He missed the wedding, but at least kept his family together.

Numerous stories like this, indicative of the Home Office targetting low hanging fruit to meet their quotas imposed by the right wing nutters (as an alternative to whacky lefties).

https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/caversham-woman-faces-deportation-despite-husband-having-cash-to-meet-home-office-rules/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wife-deportation-removal-home-office-thailand-mark-ngam-ngon-leonardi-a9027421.html

(Tulip Siddiqi and Diane Abbott would probably meet your definition of Whacky Lefties. The husband was lucky he had them. Even so, where was the Public Interest in keeping his blameless wife in prison while the HO dragged its feet)

One from the Gammons' favourite read

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2945844/Widowed-Thai-mother-deported-forced-leave-children-British-husband-killed-car-crash.html

(cruel and heartless comes to mind, but also the Home Office knew, ultimately, that she would put up less of a fight)

Look at Home Office deportation stats:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables#returns

For Q1-Q4 2023, a total of 25,646 people were earmarked for deportation, all nationalities. 19,253 voluntarily returned home. 6,393 (25%) were enforced. A further 24,587 got no further than border control, and returned home.

If I split it by nationality; Albanians are the biggest group. 5771 were deported after immigration, and of that, 2,501 (43%) were enforced return; ie they were detained. For that time, that's not unexpected. By the way, the former Albanian soldier who did my fence and patio, worked like a trooper, turned up on time every day, refused payment until I approved, insisted on bank transfer only to his business account. Meanwhile, English builder who put up my conservatory (3 years on, still numerous issues), spent his time moaning about the Irish who did my driveway, and the "Pakis", and the "Blacks", filled my garden with empty Red Bull cans, turned up at random times, wanted cash up front, and then moaned when I pointed out his VAT number had expired. Bald prick, wish I never trusted Trustpilot.

For Thais, 120 were deported, of which 110 self deported, so only 8% were actually detained. A further 15 didn't get past passport control. Of those deported, not surprisingly, 100 were women. 9 detained were women.

Look at Vietnamese; remember the lorry load found dead in the back of an Irish biscuit lorry (the driver is now doing hard time). Vietnamese face broadly the same visa issues as Thais. The stats state 34% were detained; detention rates are a strong proxy about how people are found, usually overworking. Self deportation generally indicates more of an administrative issue, eg. UK partner dies.

LOL, 559 Freedom loving Yanks try it on each year, 328 undesirables don't get past passport control at Heathrow. Of the rest, 23% end up in chokey/detention centre. Thank god for regulations, because the UK will be over run with MAGA supporters and Jan 6ers looking for work. Aussies and Kiwis are a law abiding lot. 55 don't make it in after that 24 hour flight. 65 are deported later, of which 12% are found working in a bar or coffee shop.

No one from Laos and Combodia wants to come to the UK. Only 1 was stopped at the border, 3 voluntarily went home. Malaysia has visa free arrangements with the UK. 186 Malaysians a year are refused or deported from the UK. 96 are turned around at passport control. 90 are deported afterwards, of which 18% have an enforced deportation (ie in the detention centre). For China (PRC), the numbers are quite big, but compliance rates are high. 262 get turned away at the airport. 1741 are deported after, but 3% have an enforced deportation. For Taiwan, the numbers are very small, but 50% are detained.

At least for the UK, I think the evidence that Thai people are more likely to overstay, work illegally, than other nationalities is actually quite weak. By and large, those deported are compliant wives and girlfriends. Its about 50-50 m/f who are actually detained, so that doesn't suggest any particular bias towards parts of the black economy. I really don't see why Thai citizens should face more challenges than Malaysian citizens or Hong Kong passport holders. If its about "foreigners", then the requirements for Commonwealth nations should be increased.

March 23

On 3/22/2024 at 6:00 AM, Mike Teavee said:

I'm all for easy travel & this is great news for me personally if it comes off as I plan on taking the GF for a trip to the UK next year, but I can't stand Cam-a-moron.

No idea how he was let back into the government never mind Foreign Secretary (Though it wouldn't surprise me if he's prime minister once Sunak gets the push).

Life is the farce which everyone has to perform

It would be great to see that, to see collective gammon heads explode. Unlikely. And I'm a party member, but outvoted by the blue rinse brigade, so it will never happen, unless he was unopposed, and there are too many cabinet incompetants circling to let that happen.

He's actually doing a good job as foreign secretary, a lot more active the previous ones, during a very tricky time. James Cleverley, armed with a 3rd rate degree in hospitality, was out of his depth; the scruffy ex-officer act only goes so far. Now he in charge of the police LOL. Liz Truss incredible bad judgement at every level, gotten worse leaving office. Referred to as a Poundland Thatcher, that's an insult to Poundland. Dominic Raab; famously on a beach while British troops were effectively engaged in a fighting retreat out of Kabul. Hunt had a few gaffes when in office, such as supporting the Saudis after they bombed a school. Boris Johnson did a lot of condemming, but then got pissed at a party hosted by an ex-KGB officer, while carrying the NATO battle plans. I'd have to go back to William Hague for a FS that I had confidence in in handling the UK's external affairs.

internationally. I think he knows he's just preparing the ground for the next foreign secretary, set his successor's agenda (UK foreign policy, the calamitous Brexit policy aside, has more continuity than other government policies, eg NATO, US-UK relations, UK-France relations. Generally, there is a high degree of cross-party agreement in foreign relations, and that has to be, because complex international agreements are rarely concluded within the life of a parliament).

March 15

On 3/12/2024 at 12:58 PM, Liverpool Lou said:

Was he just a security guard or did he run his own security business and how long did it take him to get to the position of B1m per month rent? Has it been suggested that it was a dodgy overnight elevation or did he work, successfully, for some time to get wealthy? Is his family wealthy?

Slightly contradictory stories

https://www.indochinatravel.com/asia-elephant-camps.html

Quote

A Swiss with a vision – this is who we are! It all began with a dream. But now, our “Green Elephant Sanctuary Park Phuket” has become a reality. Many years ago, Urs Fehr was already dreaming of protecting elephants in Thailand. And as he gained a better understanding of elephants in general, he also learned that many Thai elephants live in terrible conditions. As a consequence, opening the elephant sanctuary became an affair of the heart.

Quote

Phuket Elephant Sanctuary

Overview

Founded by Swiss partners, Urs Fehr and Nathanael Schärer, Phuket Elephant Sanctuary is a home for retired working elephants, set on 30 acres of lush tropical jungle. Observe how elephants rehabilitate into forest life after decades of abuse, and experience how incredible the largest land mammal on earth is during a day at the sanctuary.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/boredom-in-switzerland-leads-to-an-elephant-refuge-in-thailand/47207918

Quote

Urs Fehr has turned a lifelong passion for elephants into a full-time job. He went to live in Thailand and founded a sanctuary for abused pachyderms.

“I was a bit bored in Switzerland,” says the 40-year-old from Lenzburg (canton Aargau) who used to work in security. “So my Thai partner and I decided to move to her home country, for a change of scenery,” he says. The year was 2015 and Fehr was 36 years old at the time.

For two years, Fehr lived off his savings. He finally had some time on his hands and took the opportunity to check out Phuket’s domesticated elephants two or three times a week.

Slight fantacist

Quote

Money would also be raised to fund wildlife guard units in Africa. To do this, he hopes to work with former American soldiers “after they pass a psychological test”. He wants to launch a pilot project in Kenya and expand it later if it is successful.

He has a few different names, both different Christian names and different surnames.

March 4

On 1/21/2024 at 4:03 PM, Tally Ho said:

Thanks for the replies. It looks like I can just pay my normal taxes in the UK then rather than pay again in Thailand.

What I'm looking at, via the LTR route. But my company also has a subsidiary, which I have nothing to do with, in Bangkok.

But there is this Permanent Establishment thing. Companies that qualify for the the "Work from Thailand" LTR route tend to be global companies. There is the risk of Permanent Establishment if anything in your job is "habitually" to do with generating sales in Thailand. That might be signing a contract, because you happen to be in Thailand. Not knowing anything about your employer, can you guarantee that they will never seek business in Thailand?

January 5

2 hours ago, Bobthegimp said:

How many boosters have you taken and when is your next one scheduled for?

......

TLDR: every fool knows that you can't make vaccines for corona viruses because they mutate too quickly.

4. No more are scheduled for my age group.

And actually, you can. A coronavirus can only mutate so much before it ceases to be a coronavirus.

What is your background in viruses to become an expert on vaccine development?

January 5

1 hour ago, johng said:

So why not use PCR to test for the multitude of other things ? isn't it enough to say you got a cold/flu if you have a sore throat,headache and runny nose..why only PCR for COVID ?

I think you answered the question yourself

"If he started including a PCR test, people might conclude the vaccine is ineffective"

Because in January 2020, that was the only diagnostic tool available in the cabinet for an EID with unknown etiology. By April 2020, IgG LFDs were coming out; these worked on the premise of detecting the Immune response, but proved to be unreliable. By September 2020, reliable Antigen LFDs were available, and these were good enough for the purposes of home testing and then triaging.

PCR is an excellent confirmatory test. Not so good as a presumptive test. Its still fairly expensive.

Prior to January 2020, most Path Labs did not carry out PCR; this kind of confirmatory testing was really only carried out by Reference Laboratories, and there aren't many of them. Prior to January 2020, PCR was a tricky technique to carry out. You needed a clean seperate lab suite away from the other benches, and typically only one trained member of staff who could perform it. You find the same with FISH testing for breast cancer; most labs cannot do that, because of the expensive equipment needed, the training needed and the relative low volume of testing.

10 years ago, I covered Ebola testing in West Africa. The level of diagnostics available then was shocking. The available PCR tests were Mil Spec only, with secretive protocols. Only the US military put their tests through approval, because it turned out there were a few US passport holders in Liberia. Byt December that year, the WHO was estimating 10,000 new cases a week. For that, you needed to conduct about 30,000 tests a week. Adding up the capacity of the US military in Liberia, German and French capacity in Guinea (plus a bit of Russian miitary), British, South African and Chinese militaries in Sierra Leone, the entire region only had capacity for 8000 tests a week. Ebola infection, until you enter organ failure and hemolysis (blood pouring from the orifices) looks like flu. The US military, operating from an abandoned biotech institute, could manage 100 tests a day, mainly because all the reagents needed refrigeration. The lack of a road network meant diesel had to be airlifted in, and they only had enough diesel for a small number of freezers.

One of the positives that came out of that pandemic was the development of freeze dried PCR reagents.

One of the legacies of the COVID pandemic is a global network of molecular testing labs; liquid handling to do testing at serious scale, all countries now having trained personnel, developments in the technique allowing capabilities to be used through the virology/bacteriology sections. Its also allowed the expansion of cancer diagnostics. Its allowed PCR to be looked at for POC testing (moving PCR out of the lab and into the GP's office). Further, its kickstarted the next generation of diagnostics, such as paper-based CRISPR testing, making a highly accurate genetic test be as easy as performing the LFD the whole world was doing at home. Thats a game changer in the developing world, where infectious disease is still the biggest killer.

Prior to COVID, there were panel tests for respiratory tests in development, largely because of MERS. MERS appeared in 2012; 8 years on, they were still struggling, mainly because of financing, getting commercial tests out.

Spanish flu lead to the development and understanding of PPE. The 40 year Polio Pandemic gave us Intensive Care Medicine, Clinical Trials and the FDA (polio vaccine was launched without clinical trials, one manufacturer made a mistake in making formaldehyde, and sent out 200,000 live doses of polio virus. That mistake was the reason the FDA was created, to make sure manufacturers knew how to translate and scale up lab scale experiments. WW2 flu vaccine development in Australia (they were afraid of another 1918) lead to the creation of modern laboratory science. By the 1957 Flu Pandemic, for the first time, scientists were able to work out what strain was causing it. By 1968, as a result of that, vaccines for HK flu were being rolled out as the first victims were identified in Hong Kong.

One other thing; COVID-19 has caused the cost of PCR to fall rapidly. So yes, you will see PCR being used a lot more to identify panels of respiratory disease. But you don't understand what confirmatory testing and presumptive testing is, so you will never understand why PCR is part of a process that starts with syndromic surveillance, antigen detection then infectious agent identification. You also won't understand the purposes behind any testing. Testing or diagnosis, is only carried out if it means a material benefit to the patient, based on symptoms.

So, doctor, I have a sore back. Doctor; I believe you, take some painkillers, get rest.

Doctor, I have had a sore back for 2 weeks, and am running a fever. Doctor; my god, I need to get you in for emergency spinal decompression. With luc, we can preserve bowel function (symptons indicate spinal cord infarction, because of build up of pus against the spinal cord, cutting off blood supply. Paraplegia can occur within 48 hours. Administration of morphine hastens the damage, as it suppresses the immune response

Doctor; I have a cold. I demand antiobiotics. Doctor; go home, you have a viral infection.

Doctor; I have a cold. I demand antiobiotics. Doctor; I can now perform a PCT blood test in my office, indicating if you have a bacterial infection or not. Its negative, ergo you have a viral infection. Now get out, and don't cough on anyone

Doctor; I am fit and healthy, and have a positive COVID LFD. Doctor: go home.

Doctor; I have a history of heart disease, brought on by childhood poverty, and have a positive COVID LFD. Doctor: Because of your history, and some other biomarker tests I can perform, I am going to admit you as an emergency patient to hospital. There they will perform confirmatory PCR in A&E. But wen also know, for unknown reasons, 30% of admitted cases test negative on that initial admission. So they will also perform a CT scan, to look for the distinctive "broken glass" like features that we know now are diagnostic for COVID-19. We also know that because of the spike protein, found in the causative virus, SARS-Cov_2, it interferes with the Angiotensin system, which we already know plays a role in regulating blood pressure, but we also suspect it has other roles, such as in male development.

PCR is £200 a pop. Its not performed for all cases, as its not needed to be performed for all cases. Its carried out if it means a material change to how the patient is treated.

In lab testing, the rule of thumb is for a particular test, 60% of results should be negative. If its more than that, then you start to query whether the test is detecting all cases. If its less, then you start to wonder if the test is needed, as clearly everyone referred has already been successfully diagnosed.

Lastly, a case to ponder diagnostic testing. Around about 2014, a British soldier, on leave, took his family to Florida for a typical holiday. He had been in the army a fair while, was in good physical shape. He had completed multiple tours, mostly Iraq, and had been part of the invasion. Like others, prior to that, he was fully immunized against the secret list.

On the flight home, he became ill. When he landed in London, he was whisked off to St Barts in a bad way. He was crashing. In A&E, raised WBCs indicated a systemic infection. The attending physician ordered broad range antibiotics, IV, and they supported him. During the first 24 hours, he responded, and was recovering. During this time, bloods were taken for testing for the causative agent. All the usual panel tests, which are a mix of molecular, biochemical and good old fashioned plates, came back negative. Samples were sent away to Public Health's lab, first at Colindale, then Porton Down (a different establishment from the MOD place). Extensive testing was carried out. There was no sign of live agent. Porton Down did carry out toxin testing, and found the tell tale signature of Bacillus anthracis. The soldier by now was well on his way to recovery, so this finding made no material difference to his treatment.

In Florida, he had contracted inhalational anthrax infection. Usually, anthrax causes a skin infection, and is minor. Its often found in farmyards. Inhalational is another matter, which is why its favoured for military purposes.

Diagnostic testing isn't carried out for everyone. It might not be needed. It might serve no purpose if an illness is developing more quickly than the lab can respon. And that lack of a lab diagnosis doesn't mean the doctors sit around helpless doing nothing.

In China, in those early days, that what the doctors did; nothing, besides hooking a patient up to a ventilator, and hoping for the best. In Europe, different medical training meant the doctors continued to treat patients even though they weren't sure what was the cause. They addressed the symptoms, applied logic. This lead to a much higher standard of care.

People who have an infantile understanding of how vaccines work or are measured remain idiots, and should learn to accept that some people are just cleverer than them.

January 5

2 hours ago, johng said:

So you got 2 shots and still caught the dreaded lurgy but will get more shots so you don't catch it again right ?

The currently fielded vaccines reduce the disease impact. This is common for most vaccines; it can take 10 iterations over many years before a vaccine is "sterilising" (ie stopping onward transmission). Most vaccines don't do this.

Take the measles vaccine; it stops the measles disease (rash, illness, death), but the virus is still circulating in children, only they are no longer presenting with the disease.

The ongoing issue is disease definition. COVID-19 is a complex and still poorly understood disease. At the moment, definition of a COVID-19 case includes PCR, but we don't use PCR to determine whether a child has the Measles or not. Typically a physician will recognise the rash type, and that is enough. If he started including a PCR test, people might conclude the vaccine is ineffective (because they basically don't understand vaccines).

As indicated, many people may have been infected with the Sars-Cov-2 virus but have not developed COVID.

In the same way, not everyone who is HIV-positive has AIDS.

December 22, 2023

16 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

New figures to be announced. Only affects new arrivals.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/home-office-climbs-down-on-plans-to-hike-salary-thresholds-for-family-visas/

And in future, only skilled workers will be allowed to marry overseas. Unskilled workers and pensioners will be told no.

December 20, 2023

On 12/7/2023 at 7:58 AM, superal said:

As soon as they set foot on UK soil they are normally given accommodation , and also given £ 47.39 per person a day for living expenses plus free health care which includes dental treatment and glasses etc.

Not correct

https://www.gov.uk/asylum-support/what-youll-get

December 10, 2023

3 hours ago, Bday Prang said:

Fake news ? like that extolling the virtues of uncontrolled immigration

But lets get back on topic a bit, Thai Spouses and there visas ? A subject also worthy of. , closer inspection, I personally have visited at least 5 brothels owned and run by Thai women, ( not even in the name of research but for good old fashioned paid for sex! ) and I seem to remember a few prominent MP's who were caught , literally with their pants down in similar establishments.

Do you think these women might just have arrived on dubious spouse visas?

And yet you complain of grooming gangs. Go request a Treponema pallidum test. Its affecting your judgement.

Probably the places you frequent are using the Northern Irish tang network, eg. Maurice Robinson. He was convicted of the deaths of multiple Vietnamese nationals found in the back of his truck. His defence was he thought he was hauling biscuits, which turned out to be a lie. He was part of a organised crime network that included Protestant Loyalists like him, members of the Irish Republican movement, gangs in Belgium, Bulgaria (where a lot of the trucks are registered) and South East Asia (Thailand-Vietnam0Cambodia). Mostly women, its likely they were to be sold into a sex trade that exists largely to satisfy you and other similar people's depravities. People like you are actually part of the organised crime behind this immoral human trafficing trade.

Its basically your fault. When you conducted your business, you were basically paying the snakehead gangs. These gangs are also part of the narcotics industry, and these brothels that you frequent are also part of a money laundering operation. The Irish terrorist angle is interesting, because they also take their cut, and you help fund the murder of British soldiers and police officers.

December 10, 2023

1 hour ago, Bday Prang said:

What, and miss all the fun ? I have not told people to stop posting stuff that I don't like. I don't have an ignore list , Anyway none of these financial requirements would be game changing for a real "doctor"

No, financially not an issue at all for me, but I am acutely aware of the concept of fairness, and this policy is nt very fair. As has been signaled by the government, only the relatively well off are allowed now to develop romantic liaisons with non-Britons. Everyone else must keep to their own kind. Many MPs have non-British wives. If the proposed rules had been in place, its doubtful the current Home Secretary's mother would have been able to enter the country based on his fathers income as a surveyor . You posted a vague statement about not posting fiction. I am happy to tell you I have never posted a fictional story to back an argument, so its a good job you reminded yourself not to do the same.

All Doctors are real Doctors (and a small number of medical doctors don't go on to gain their doctorate, but still assume the title). The study time is about the same. Surgeons lose the title of Doctor in some geographies. The average salary of the Doctors who came up with the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine was about £37k, as they were in Oxford. If in London, they would be on £39k, due to London weighting. The national average salary for a junior doctor is about £35k (huge variation though). Later on of course fully qualified medical doctors will see significant increases in salary. For other Doctors, it depends.

I'm a specialist in infectious disease. I can't go into further detail.

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