nigelforbes

The question was rhetorical CH! But there was a time when I was, years ago and there was a time when many many other expats bragged about the fact.

Thinking of UK benefits fraud....how many people reading this thread are living in Thailand whilst claiming they still live in the UK and claiming some sort of benefit such as pension increases, heating allowance, etc etc! Yup, I thought so!

I agree, the last time I was back in the UK in 2019 I saw this in spades, it's just sanctioned abuse in many cases.

It's always interesting to try and understand why things happen because that may point at what will happen next. The US Dollar Index is back down to 110, the same level it was at for the first three weeks of September. The index also rose during the last week of August but it didn't retreat the following month. Chartists tell us USD was overbought at the end of last month and I agree. The question is whether its recent retreat was because it was overbought or whether the news that China would sell USD was a key factor. Another possibility is month end dollar sales and settlements as overseas SSc is paid, this is a significant amount of USD exchanged for foreign currency. Yet another possible cause is the BOE announcement of intervention in the gilts markets (markets likely saw that as a policy pivot and guessed the Fed may follow suit). It's worth noting that the US Dollar Index is calculated based on six currencies, one of which is GBP. (euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc). The big issue going forward is Chinese sales of USD although they wont want to do that in such a way as to cause USD to weaken too quickly otherwise they lose a lot of money. The next Fed meeting is in November, unless China overreacts or markets expect the Fed to pivot on inflation policy (highly unlikely, although new data could show it receding), I would guess USD will remain broadly flat until the Fed speaks. I would be very surprised to see USD head back towards 115, a 20 year high. If those things are correct (and they may not be), that means the current bear market rally in equities is just that, (markets up, currency down) and that equities will resume their downward trend whilst USD stays mostly flat....you may guess things differently. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

This may help you decide the answer: https://ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/where_do_you_fit_in

Sorry, yes, I wrote that badly. Whilst Ophthalmologists here only work in hospitals, doing so doesn't preclude them from having their own clinics, that seems to be endemic in the entire medical profession in Thailand. What I don't think you ever find is an Ophthalmologist who works in a glasses shop and nowhere else.

The US Dollar is the number 1 reserve currency globally, it's the most traded and people turn to it for safety. Right or wrong, that's why it's teflon, because people think it's safe.

Next Fed meeting is not until 3 November, that's a long way off, lots could happen

We discussed it briefly in a different thread a few days ago. But yes, this is a major consideration also.

Deplorable, stealing cats.

Me too...agreed.

"It is notable that the BoT left the door open to a shift in the pace of its policy normalisation. For our part, we think the external environment will increase pressures on the BoT to be more assertive with rate hikes, if it does not want to risk further currency declines," said ANZ analysts in a note." https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-central-bank-hikes-rate-again-maintains-2022-growth-outlook-2022-09-28/

There isn't a single person on the planet who can support what you've written, not even the US Fed. Please, if you're going to express an opinion, please feel free to do so. But please don't express it as fact, it's seriously unhelpful for others.

Agreed, but BOT absolutely will increase rates, there is no doubt.

A 5 wave? Surf's up! ???? More seriously. US Social Security gets paid in Thailand on 3/4th of the month, the impact on THB/USD is noticeable every month because THB is such a small currency.

It might snow.

You beat me to it, that's just what my tea leaves say also. :))

I wouldn't bet the farm that the next rate increase will be as big as some think, I also wouldn't bet anything that BOT wont increase rates and close the gap. Overly strong USD is wreaking havoc in many economies, inflation or not the current rate and trajectory of trend cannot continue for long.

This is routine stuff that happens every week, BOT smoothes the exchange rate, that's all.

Yes, whatever the exchange rate is at this very moment, anything else is risky.

Statistically speaking you should make the transfer right now, the rate has rarely been better. Statistically speaking it is unlikely to improve.

A key element of the jigsaw is the amount needed to put the current account into surplus which would keep the Baht strong. A major component of the current account is the trade surplus/deficit, which includes exports and foreign currency from tourism (which is also an export). All things being equal we need to see tourism income at about 38% of 2018 arrivals or about 15 mill. tourists, fairly close to todays numbers. But all things are not equal and exports generally have fallen. Either exports generally need to increase or tourist arrivals need to do so, either of those things would cause Baht strengthening. In practice we will probably see a combination of factors come together and when they d,o THB will get stronger, at that point the expat community will cry, "they're manipulating the Baht again". ????

Just some information. Tourism WAS estimated to be equal to about 20% of GDP but international tourism was around 11%, the remaining 9% was domestic tourism which still exists today. Thailands GDP WAS USD 500 bill in 2020, what it might be today is not clear. The point is that a temporary loss of 75% of international tourism is not such a devastating loss that the headlines would have you believe, especially since tourism industry here was massively overpopulated and needed to be rationalised. Household or Consumer debt is an issue, it is far too high. But that debt amount is fixed, even though GDP has shrunk hence the ratio of Consumer Debt to GDP continues to climb, even though few people are borrowing more from banks. In short, it is today what it has been for a quite some time hence the problem is not new. The banks picture is interesting. I read something recently that described Bangkok Bank as critically important to the infrastructure of Thailand, come what may that bank will not be allowed to fail under almost any circumstances. Bank of Ayudhya (sp) is owned by Bank Mitsubishi in Japan which has assets of over USD 2.5 trill., UOB is part of UOB Singapore which is regularly rated as one of the top 10 safest banks in the world. The point here is that there are some big name players in the Thai banking field and BOT, the Central Bank, is very much on top of the things. The downside of course is the lack of regulation which as you suggest, leads to a lack of opaqueness. Given the legislation that allows banks to operate with Minimum Lending Rates etc, the deck is heavily loaded in favour of the banks. All things considered, I would therefore not be worried about the condition of their balance sheets.

If you pick your area carefully then you will find patches where prices increase because of development but it's all very patchy and in small areas. And after holding a property you should be able to make some sort of profit after a decade but it's far from guaranteed. Read up on housing supply here, especially Pattaya, the over supply is horrendous, particularly condo's. You say prices went up 30% after covid, I say they did no such thing. There is a move afoot to suspend new condo developments because of the oversupply, that doesn't equate to 30% increases in prices, that means falling prices!. This is from 2015: https://propertyforsalepattaya.net/pattaya-condo-market-oversupply/ This is from 2020: https://www.colliers.com/en-th/news/property-new-update-pattaya Google the Bangkok Post and read articles about current times, sorry, I can't post them here.

No. The 11 from Lampang to Phits. is excellent scenery and a decent road, I can highly recommend Uttaradit. The 12 from Phits to Nam Nao is also very pleasant. The Pai road is in a class of its own, I've not come across much that's similar anywhere else here. The 117 is the main road through NS, I strongly suggest you speed up about a mile from town and try to attain maximum velocity before reaching the boundary.