nigelforbes

Read the link below and see the chart, you will change your thinking on that subject: https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

No, because the trades are not for the delivery of currency. The trades may well be based on or in THB but when it comes to cashing in time and taking profit, that's taken in USD, not THB. For example, I hold an Asian/Emerging Markets investment fund which invests in equities in Developed and Emerging Asia, the equities are in half a dozen or more currencies but the fund rebases them back to GBP. That means that if the shares do well and make a profit, the price in the fund increases and it pays me in GBP, the shares and the foreign currency never actually leave the country of issue.

I suspect there is some agreed orchestration by Central Banks across the board, rules that we don't always see but as you say, exist for stability purposes. Your point about comparative numbers is also well taken. The global economy is a million part machine where all parts move at different speeds in different directions. Trying to take a snap shot of that at any point in time is at best an estimation. Individual economies are the same thing but on a lesser, yet still monumental scale. Attempting to piece those million parts together is nevertheless interesting and even fun, albeit probably impossible to do with any precision. I'm not sure I even understand the BRICS risk fully, the big development I see is the EAS and ASEAN ++ trading group that includes China and Japan, that group is rapidly pulling trade away from a USD base and in Thailand's case, accounts for about 75% of its trade. A ways down the road is the threat to pricing all exports in USD, even one day, oil.....that will be interesting.

Oh wait.... the report says, "exports value appears to have no correlations", those are not my words they are what is written in the report!!! As for your questions: I answered your question about why exports don't slow, why other reports show that they do I can't answer because you haven't posted any for me to read and comment on so how would I know. And as far as your questions about remembering USD, Euro, the US etc, as interesting as they may be they are still not Thailand which is the subject being discussed here. Different countries will behave in different ways for different reasons, I don't believe for one moment there is one single reason that applies across all countries.

Yes ikke, it's from the Thai Central Bank, who else would commission a study of Thai exports!!!

I'm 73, how old do I need to be? The study is five years old, do you really think that much that relates to this subject has changed in that time, if so, what? If you would have asked me, until I read that study, I would have said they were correlated but the study says they appear not to be. The reports suggests the reasons for this include - "Diverse impact across businesses Low value-added businesses face greater impact - Foreign demand has a greater role than exchange rates". What I think that last part says is that foreign demand outweighs price. The first part seems to suggest that the diverse range of impacts means that low value add businesses do suffer but higher pnes do not. If you have links to other studies that show that, in the case of the Thai economy, the BOT study is wrong and the answer is the opposite, I'd like to see them, I suspect some how that I won't!

A BOT MPC study in 2018, found that: “Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.” It has long been said by most people that a stronger Baht make exports more expensive and less attractive, the last part appears not to be the case. https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf

I can't answer that question because I don't know anything about lease, perhaps others can advise.

I have met a number of Professors and Associate Professors in the medical field, over the past 20 years in the North. Some have held quite prestigious teaching positions at the University and also consult as an expert consultant in their area of expertise. In two cases, I am appalled by their weak levels of knowledge and appalled at their work ethic and behavior, I would no more allow them to provide me with medical advice than I would anyone I meet in the street. It is clear that a professorship is a fast track to improved earnings power and a great advertising aid, caveat emptor.

Learn about Thai Tourism, the Baht and the Thai economy and then get back to me:

Prediction and speculation are different words that mean different things. You hedge your bets based on predictions, not on speculations. Prediction is to estimate the future based on evidence. Speculation, in economic terms, is to guess or gamble on the future but without evidence.

A superficies can be willed but an usufruct cannot.

My understanding is that the spouse who granted the usufruct has to apply to have it nullified, in which case it will almost certainly be granted.

You haven't understood. The purpose of an usufruct is to guarantee the holder the right to live in the property in accordance with the specified term, be it 30 years or life. If the usufruct is granted by a spouse, divorce nullifies the usufruct, that has been proven in divorce court as other posters have confirmed. Therefore, the usufruct does not provide the protection that was expected and is therefore not valid.

According to a BOT MPC study: “Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.” A weak Baht does however have a negative effect on the Thai economy because imports, particularly oil, become more expensive. Those costs negatively affect the Thai economy as a whole, transportation, wages, production costs and energy, all cost more. “The impact of exchange rates on the Thai economy can be two fold. On the one hand, an abrupt appreciation or a continued strengthening trend may weaken the country’s price competitiveness or reduce export revenue in baht terms Note: this is why BOT intervenes in the FOREX market to smooth out ekas and troughs in the exchange rate. These, in turn, affect wages in export oriented firms and consumers’ purchasing power due to their lower income, which may eventually result in slower economic growth. Nevertheless, these channels are only one side of the coin when assessing impact of exchange rates on the Thai economy. On the other hand, exchange rate appreciation helps lower producers’ import costs of raw materials as well as delaying an increase in consumers’ costs of living, especially when global energy prices swiftly increase.” https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf

A poster mentioned previously that being granted an usufruct means that person can sell the property at will, it doesn't! It means the holder has to agree to any sale and sign off on it but they cannot arbitrarily decide to sell and complete that sale, without the chanote holders agreement.

This is kind of a blog entry that I've written from some of the nonsense I've been reading elsewhere in the forum on the subject of the Baht, tourism and the Thai economy. We’re back to speculation again, only one step up from manipulation! The Chair of the Fed can talk up USD, when he speaks, USD moves. The Chancellor in the UK can do the same with the Pound, as can Lagarde with the EUR. In theory, BOT could do similar, if it were to announce an extreme measure aimed at the BAHT. You have to ask however, why would they! The Central Bank can only execute government policy, they can’t go off at some bizarre tangent, just because it might be fun! As for TAT, well, they can produce whatever forecasts they want and financial world will say, ho-hum, dealers in Thailand will just sigh, again. The media on the other hand can produce all manner of headlines and articles about the Baht and the economy and immediately get certain classes of readers into a frenzy, hahahaha, that’s their job, it’s sad that some don’t get that! If your BP goes South as a result, TBH that’s what you get for reading the Daily Star instead of the FT or Bloomberg. It helps to have an anchor in fact and reality, in things that you can see and prove rather than in hidden unprovable mystery that just seems interesting and novel. Doctors are taught to believe that if the problem has a simple answer, that’s what it is, don’t go looking for the 1% maybe answers. The simple and very clear answer about the Baht is that it: - Cannot be exported in any volume so it’s value is only controlled within Thailand. - The Thai economy is 70% export dependent and export bills are settled in USD, the link between USD and the Baht is vital. - The Baht is tiny, USD is huge. - USD is volatile, it was one of the top five most volatile currencies in 2022. - When USD moves (which it does a lot), the USD/GBP exchange rate has no choice but to follow. - Goods Exports alone don’t drive the value of the Baht, some other numbers to look for include: - Exports over USD 22 bill month - International Tourist arrivals over 20 mill year - Inbound FDI over USD 12 bill. - US Dollar Index 100, +/- 5% - Current account balance, GDP +/- 5% As a general rule, if the numbers come in less than this, the Baht will weaken, if higher it will strengthen. The optimal range for USD/THB is around 31/34, ideally 32/33. BUT, In a 2018 paper, the BOT Monetary Policy Committee wrote: “Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.” A weak Baht does however have a negative effect on the Thai economy because imports, particularly oil, become more expensive. Those costs negatively affect the Thai economy as a whole, transportation, wages, production costs and energy, all cost more. “The impact of exchange rates on the Thai economy can be two fold. On the one hand, an abrupt appreciation or a continued strengthening trend may weaken the country’s price competitiveness or reduce export revenue in baht terms. These, in turn, affect wages in export oriented firms and consumers’ purchasing power due to their lower income, which may eventually result in slower economic growth. Nevertheless, these channels are only one side of the coin when assessing impact of exchange rates on the Thai economy. On the other hand, exchange rate appreciation helps lower producers’ import costs of raw materials as well as delaying an increase in consumers’ costs of living, especially when global energy prices swiftly increase.” https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf Forget the press reports, forget the speeches forget the manipulation theories, pay attention to the numbers.

Whoosh!

It's Baht, the Bitcoin of Asia, the currency, not the country, sheesh!

Heads up, serial emoticon posters go to a special place!

You say that but it did happen to an American friend nearby. He only found out fifteen years later when he took a more switched on Thai girlfriend who understood these things. It all came down to the source of the funds and the proof that he brought the money into Thailand to pay for the house. Were it not for the new girlfriend, he would never have known and at age 74 he might not be expected to live too much longer, after which the lawyer would own 15 mill baht of house.

And watch the price of gasoline and diesel increase, and all that entails.

Once again, 75% of International Tourists are from ASEAN and East Asia, how much closer to home do you want them to vacation!

Nope, that isn't what was said. What was said was, International Tourism doesn't play much of a DIRECT role in moving the Baht exchange rate, this is because USD is rarely involved in tourist currency transactions. International Tourism does however play an INDIRECT role in that International Tourism spending stimulates the economy and the foreign currency causes the Foreign Currency Reserves to grow. The renowned economist Chartchai Parasuk confirmed this in his column dated 26 January in the Bangkok Post, in case you don't believe me.

On the other hand, at least 75% of tourists who visit Thailand are from ASEAN and East Asia, increased flight costs are therefore not a huge consideration.