Mike Lister

Can you list some?

I agree completely that successive governments have lived in fear of repeating the '97 crisis and have played things far too safe for too long. An example of this is government borrowings that have not exceeded 60% of GDP since the crash. Another example is the way they have continually built their Foreign Currency Reserves, far beyond a level that is required. By keeping imports low and exports high, successive governments have mostly always operated a trade surplus. This in turn has increased the Reserves and cause the Baht to strengthen. But I vehemently disagree that any government has actively sought to strengthen then Baht, all the intervention that has taken place has been to weaken it, an action that offsets the trade surplus effects. Emerging Markets and Developing Economies are at the mercy of Dollar values, which is why BRICS and currency swaps are so appealing. If BOT did nothing, the Baht would end up so strong that nobody would buy Thai exports and their would be a trade deficit every month and a current account deficit at year with precious little in the Foreign Currency Reserves, the latter being grown on the back of export trade bills almost exclusively.

OK, fair enough. Do you think that BOT wants the baht stronger or weaker against the Dollar?

There has only been two coups this century, 2006 and 2014, so that's unlikely to be a major reason. More probable reasons are the ones the BOT constantly refers to and are structural and core to the Thai economy. Education, training, private investment, government policies regarding business investment are the key ones. Others include a strategy for an ageing population, productivity and climate change strategy are all factors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Military_coups_in_Thailand

A good article, very true

Market odds of a US rate cut in in June have fallen from 64% to 31%.

The problem is that oil is priced in USD and THB is a tiny currency that is at the mercy of the Dollar.

Troll post removed

The Fuel Subsidy Fund subsidises the cost of fuel when oil prices are high and attempts to reclaim that money when prices are low by leaving prices slightly higher than they would otherwise be. One problem is that that oil prices spiked after covid and remained high, this resulted in substantial subsidies that have yet to be recouped. All the fund does is remove the peaks/spikes from the consumer prices.

No, it varies from bank to bank. UOB for example has a minimum of 5k on certain account types, others will also be different.

It will potentially reduce the volume of trade bills that are settled in USD but not significantly so for some years. Of key importance is that oil is still paid for in USD and USD remains at the core of the FOREX system. Expect it to be a decade before any real impact is felt.

As already said elsewhere, we're still seeking clarification on any tax liability for either party.

Can you list some of those that are wholly owned that are big business? All the big names I can think of are Thai majority owned and have the word (Thai) after the name.

More interesting to understand is why the luggage x-ray people didn't spot the batteries and query them.

That forecast of 36+ Baht per Dollar is now reality, a jump this morning puts it at 36.05. The latest US CPI results were worse than expected, consequently, markets do not now expect a US Fed rate cut before mid year. US equities sold off, USD strengthened (the US Dollar Index rose and is close to 105%) plus the price of oil increased....more bad news for the Fuel Subsidy Fund. Of major concern now must be that US inflation is far harder to tame than previously expected, yet the Thai Cabinet has approved new record level borrowings equal to 15% of GDP. This is a really bad combination of, what is effectively, Quantitative Easing at a time when inflation is not under control. The BOT is at least vindicated by holding rates unchanged, that much at least helps. Trying to strengthen the Thai economy via QE, without first making structural changes to it, is diametrically opposite to the desired rate cuts and the inflation the QE will unleash.

Virtually all businesses in Thailand are, by law, 51% Thai owned, apart from BOI companies and even these are disallowed in some business sectors. Perhaps if you tell us more about what you are trying to accomplish that may help.

That shouldn't be a problem but you might want to check what your banks rules are regarding dormancy and no transactions.

Oh yes, did I mention also that the Fuel Subsidy Fund is in debt for THB 85 billion and burning up further subsides at the rate of THB 200 million per day?

Trolling post removed

All bets are off on the Baht. I just read that the cabinet has approved THB 560 bill in extra borrowings, not fund the digital wallet which happens to be that exact amount, but to pay for a budget deficit. If I read that correctly, the government will no longer borrow specifically for the digital wallet giveaway but will instead fund it from a budget deficit. This is going to lead to inflation and loss of investor confidence, the new borrowings total over 750 billion baht or 15% of GDP, the highest it has ever been, during peak covid it was 9%.

Wow, just reading that the cabinet has approved new borrowings, equal to the amount of digital wallet (560 bill baht) but for a different purpose, or so it is reported, nod nod wink wink. It looks like they are going to go ahead with this regardless....I'm amazed.

Perhaps the poster should be more clear about his definition of "negotiable" in this context.

The terms of all the available visa's issued by Immigration are pretty clear and are not negotiable! Certain visa agents may however be able to point you at products that may better suit your needs.

Only funds remitted to Thailand are taxable here.

That's much more ambitious than anything I have done, I usually count on doubling my investment every five years which leaves me happy and in the lower risk zone. But much of that is an age factor, if I was in my twenties I might play with tech.