Mike Lister

The Thai economy has two main fee earners, Goods exports and international tourism. International tourism may not meet expectations or hopes but goods exports is improving, the two things combined only have to be average for the economy to be good.

He's racking up the airmiles, that's for sure but there's no concrete results yet, maybe too early still.

Looks like a buzzard, not uncommon here.

The higher the price of imported wine that becomes expensive because of the import taxes, the higher the price local producers can charge for locally produced wines.

But but but, what will replace the import tax on day one, the country and the budget needs that income and it's a huge amount? https://silklegal.com/wine-tax-in-thailand-a-protectionist-barrier/ https://dmcrth.dmcr.go.th/attachment/dw/download.php?WP=rUqjMT04qmqZG22DM7y04TyerPMjBT01qmIZAJ1CM5O0hJatrTDo7o3Q

Yet another aspect of this is the fact that fundamentally, Thai people are very conservative. Imported sin and sin taxes is fine because there is a moral imperative to protect the population. But home grown sin is something else and must be tolerated because it is Thai. Think alcohol, sex and soon to be gambling.

Yes, yes and yes, we all know these things and always have. But somebody somewhere in a position of power and great influence insists it will not be so, presumably to protect his income.

It joins the list of hundreds of other things here that don't make sense, they are all done for a reason but logic doesn't enter the equation.

Lowering import taxes is unlikely to make the domestic market for wine production grow, how would it?

I'm not suggesting it's the right thing to do or that the wine is any good, I'm merely explaining why the import tax is so high.

Agreed. But Thailand and its budget relies on indirect taxation rather than income tax which is only 2% of the tax take. Everyone pays indirect taxes such as VAT and sales tax plus it gives the appearance that the poor escape taxation completely.

Yes, all that may be true but you clearly haven't thought it through from a Thai perspective. Indeed, the government could make more in tax revenue if it didn't support the home market but that would mean the home market producers wouldn't survive and the country would become reliant on wine imports. So, that would mean a loss of independence, local producers would go out of business plus imports would be higher each month and this would mean more reliance on goods exports to protect the balance of trade and the value of THB.

It may well be tripe but it's still true and correct! The government is protecting it's home market, which is what they do on some many different fronts. This is why the quality of so many things here is ultra poor.

The Thai wine industry is worth almost USD 1 billion per year, the high price on imports is to protect the home market. https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/alcoholic-drinks/wine/thailand#revenue

Phew, that's brilliant, we were all worried you might have to pay something.

There's a trade off between creating inflation via the giveaway and losing control of the government because they haven't done anything. Not understanding the link between the giveaway and inflation is not the issue, their poor judgement and the wrong reason is.

The economists are right, the politicians are wrong, they should listen to them rather than just trying to create populist policies and give money away.

It beats her doing the opposite. I've been very surprised and impressed, she's in her fourth year and is really conscientious, she found her mojo as they say.

No, nothing to do with tourism at all. She has a bakery business that is very successful, her customer base is mostly middle/upper middle Thai's in Bangkok plus Thai businesses there also. The holiday season attracts gift givers who order literally hundreds of boxes of product as gifts for staff and wealthy Thai's who give the product as gifts.

That was the game plan initially but she's trying to grow it into a year round business.

This time it will be different.......! I just read the economic forecast report from a major Securities house who is planning on inflation as a result of this stimulus. https://res.innovestxonline.com/stocks/extra/57676_20230913181645.pdf

My wife runs her own business from home, the last three months of each year plus January are her busy time when she makes 75% of her annual profit. 5am until 11pm, seven days a week , I literally have to demand she takes time off for herself/us. Fortunately she enjoys it enormously.

Many have done so, it's known as Quantitative Easing which nearly always results in inflation, cases in point, the US, UK and Europe during covid.

Government(s) regularly spend money to build infrastructure or support the population and GDP rises as a result, without government spending, GDP would be very low in many countries.

GDP is the sum of everything that is purchased or produced, it can be measured either way. So if everyone is given 10k Baht each, that means the sum of all purchases will increase.