
Mike Lister
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Everything posted by Mike Lister
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Thai tourism targets expats with special deals
Mike Lister replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Nonsense, do you really think all other resident expats stay home and don't travel, just because of TM30! -
Thai tourism targets expats with special deals
Mike Lister replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
We booked a hotel room at an Imperial Hotel in Central Thailand four weeks ago, it cost 831 baht for two people (no BF). The room was discounted as a promo from 2,600 which we didn't believe, until we got there. The entire front of the hotel, reception and two guests floors had been remodelled, it was easily worth 2,600 but you would never have got that price on a walk in basis. The fact is that many hotels discount their rooms to the likes of Agoda, all TAT has done is to act as an Agoda equivalent. -
Not necessarily, it depends on your holdings and situation. If you have overseas investments that are you are happy with and you don't need the cash here in Thailand, leave the investments where they are but make sure you get a year end valuation showing their worth. Every investment has a principal amount and an income or return amount. As long as you are able to separate those two things on paper, using the year end 2023 as a baseline, there isn't a problem.
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Yes, I lived in Hong Kong but worked here for 30% of the time from 93 through 98 when I moved here permanently. There is almost no economic comparison between the economy then and now, except perhaps that the levels of government debt are very very similar. In 1997, over 60% of the population was in poverty, today it's around 6%. Foreign currency reserves back then were miniscule by comparison plus they were poorly managed, today the BOT has a very firm grip on the financial sector institutions and the reserves. In 97. the piles were first being sunk on Sukhumvit for the sky train, today the rail network is mature and spans the entire capital and beyond. Road, rail and air infrastructure was in its infancy, today it's mature. Pre-97, Thai businesses were fledgling, today those businesses own overseas businesses in many sectors, department stores, football teams, hotel chains and construction companies. Need I continue?
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There are so many issues that it's difficult to know where to begin! One large problem is that only 22% of the workforce is engaged in manufacturing and producing goods for export whilst 48% are engaged in the Services sector, much of which is tourism oriented. In short, Thailand doesn't make enough stuff for export, its main export is the holiday experience which is a Services export. Given that goods exports are so low, it's interesting that the BOT foreign currency reserves equal over 9 months of exports whereas only three are required. BOT accumulates these reserves by default but really doesn't have any use for them other than to guarantee trade and support the Baht. And the government can't get to those reserves, they don't don't belong to them and are not accessible. Given the huge build out of infrastructure that's taken place over the past ten years and which continues today, I get the idea that the desire is to increase goods exports and from the PM's travels to date, perhaps that's the plan. As for NPL's, officially they stand at 3.4% of total book but Special Mention loans are up to over 6%.
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I suppose if you obtained your Thai Tax ID some years ago, at a time perhaps when you were tax resident and qualified to be issued with a tax ID, or when the criteria was less strict, they are not going to check every year to see if you are still tax resident. As a general rule, tax ID won't be issued to non Thai's unless they hold a long stay visa and in some cases, can prove they actually stay here for more than 180 days per year. Alternatively, the requestor has demostrate that they have a valid need for a tax ID, because they have income that is relevant here. There have been reports of RD refusing to issue tax ID's to people who did not meet those criteria.
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If GDP falls, which it has, and if lending remains flat and no new bank loans are made, statistically, the household debt ratio to GDP will increase, without anyone doing anything. By the same token, when the economy picks up and GDP rises, the newspapers will be full of how successful the revival has been and isn't the PM good, because the household debt to GDP ratio will fall.
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Once again, with government debt at a low level of 60% of GDP and Foreign Currency Reserves of over USD 220 billion, that's three times the required minimum, Thailand's economy is nowhere near to collapse. Plus, the target of 27 mill. tourists looks like it will easily be reached, if anyone is waiting for a collapse, make sure you pack lots of sandwiches and have several good books.
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Nonsense! We've had this discussion before, Malaysian workers don't fly to Had Yai or Bangkok. Plus, the Malaysian workforce is 15.8 million, Malaysian tourist arrivals were almost 4 million. Does anyone really think that 25% of the Malaysian workforce works in Thailand, or even a small fraction of that number! https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/11/15/malaysians-top-list-of-foreign-tourists-to-thailand-this-year-with-38-million-arrivals-so-far/102143
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"The average spending per foreign tourist per trip will be around THB42,000, up from THB40,000 in 2022, but remains less than the THB47,895 in 2019". https://www.kasikornresearch.com/en/analysis/k-social-media/Pages/NY66-Tourism-FB-26-12-2022.aspx#:~:text=The average spending per foreign,the THB47%2C895 in 2019.
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Not exactly broke, not with public debt at only 60% of GDP and USD 220 billion in foreign currency reserves! Who can blame the PM for trying to drum up international business, it's easier and more lucrative to persuade external funds to invest here than it is to try and squeeze money out of residents.
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3.48 Trillion Baht Budget For 2024 Due For Cabinet Nod
Mike Lister replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
In addition to the USD 500 billion handout scheme, that's quite a budget deficit! If anyone is interested, here's a breakdown of the 2022 budget: https://dmcrth.dmcr.go.th/attachment/dw/download.php?WP=rUqjMT04qmqZG22DM7y04TyerPMjBT01qmIZAJ1CM5O0hJatrTDo7o3Q Note that only about 2.1% of tax revenue comes from personal income tax. -
The problem with re-claiming that tax is that you have to complete a tax return and to do that, you have to complete the entire return and declare all your income in Thailand, not just the part that lets you get back your tax on bank interest. That means you have to declare any income received from overseas sources, remitted in the year it was earned, direct deposits of pension payments etc to Thai banks. If you don't do that, you will have filed a fraudulent tax return, just something to keep in mind.
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It used to be the case, most would drive over the border, others would fly to Had Yai but not many ventured much further North than Phuket or Surat Thani. The next tourist step further North is Hua Hin and then Bangkok which is a healthy 10/12 hour drive. Somebody recently posted the stats from land border crossing by Malaysians and they are substantial. The link below from the gov press office in 2022. https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG221026093739999#:~:text=Unlike in the past%2C Malaysian,Chiang Mai%2C and Chiang Rai. A news article in the Bangkok Post entitled, "The South Eyes More Malaysian Visitors", explains more.
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I used to believe that and I'm pretty sure that used to be the case. But I read recently that Malaysians now travel much further afield in Thailand, to Bangkok and beyond. If that's true, the tourism money is being spread around the country but I confess to not seeing any in Chiang Mai, maybe too far.