shochu

to be fair let me add - r some mods offering info.

1) why have my people informed me that u r giving out personal info.

while i haven't read the entire post

it is well known among law enforcement and also party people in the know - who r responsible for much of THE drugs in circulation - in particular - X.

there r well documented white papers on this.

mda (to those who grew up in the 70's and 80's) was the precursor to X

one dies of drinking too much water because their system just can not take the excess - the drugs trick u into thinking u r thirsty - overload.

so - what is the name of this real estate firm u 2 guys work at where swords r the choice of symbols?

and why do u 2 have to keep repeating the same song over and over and over and over....

the ultimate creation that humans can achieve/do without thought has no restrictions whatsoever so any twit can create/do is simply amusing in the least.

i am firmly behind regulation/laws to limit the ability to procreate to only those that have shown some ability to be good parents!

fully agree

as long as it is not treated as a guide to romance but more as a reference guide as u suggest to cultural differences - BUT - as long as it is read and understood in such a manner -AND - not subconsciously imbued.

dude,

if ur being sincere with this post - then treat her as u would anyone else irregardless of where she is from. the biggest mistake u can make is taking advice about ur relationship from experiences dealing with working girls. just because she is thai does not mean she will do as many here say. if she had a regular middle class upbringing (as it appears) she will be like any girl her age - anywhere.

however - the advice of at least getting a bigger place is sound - at least a bedroom as everbody needs their space.

if u r sincere - treat her with the respect u would expect and if it is real - then u will be happy. by going into a relationship as these guys here say expecting the worst - u set urself up for failure and will slip up and say or do something from what u have heard here and it will be difficult to heal. give it a fresh start and don't read that silly book - unless u think she has green card goggles - but then only u can know that.

by the way - there r many thai students in bangkok who speak very good english - even in high school. go to any good school and their english is as good as ours.

have to agree

she's just an average girl from the west

give her a break - like u guys never said similar things

i regularly go to a vietnamese rest. and pretty much always order the same thing. however , most of the time, the checkbin is different - varies no more than 10 baht. at first i thought - what the @#$%! but since the food is good, always packed and reasonably priced - i never complain. i just make sure i get a good look a the bill so i never underpay and leave a small tip.

another place i always go to because they have this sweet,spicy crunchy fish i love - one time there was a baby cockroach mixed in my food. i pushed it to the edge of the plate and finished eating. WHY - because i have come to the conclusion, there r not many good places to eat anywhere (pick any city) and when i find a place with good food, i add it to my routine and i make do. most of the time it is a small thing every once in a while if at all.

i know some people will have a sissy fit BUT let me explain about bugs in the food. most food products have an acceptable amount of bug and other matter in them and since i used to do a lot of outdoor stuff, sucking in a bug is not such a big deal. and have u guys ever seen how food is processed and made in some places?

and whenever i have some doubt - as with the cockroach thingy - i just eat sprinkle a couple of little chillis on the food and never have any problems

of course there r many places that never get the pass

but if i find a good place - and i don't get sick - it's otay!!

Switzerland threatened with bankruptcy

Posted by Edward Harrison on Tuesday, 17 February 2009

17

Feb

In an interview with Swiss daily Tagesanzeiger, a well-known economist has warned that Switzerland risks bankruptcy, if the recent market turmoil centering on Eastern Europe is not contained quickly. At issue are loans made in Swiss francs to Eastern European debtors. With many countries in the region falling into depression, currencies and asset prices are plunging. Therefore, debtors domiciled in Eastern Europe are increasingly expected to have difficulty with mounting foreign debt loads — and that spells trouble for Switzerland.

Below is my translation of the Tagesanzeiger article.

Switzerland threatened with bankruptcy

Swiss banks have given billions of credit to Eastern Europe - now the customers cannot pay back the money. Switzerland is threatened with the fate of Iceland, says economist Arthur P. Schmidt.

In countries such as Poland, Hungary and Croatia, the Swiss franc has become an important currency. Thousands of households and small firms took out loans in Swiss francs, and not in the national currency zloty, forint, or kuna because of lower interest rates. In Hungary, 31 percent of all loans are in Swiss currency. Amongst household loans, they are almost 60 percent.

Borrowers in distress

Now, the financial crisis has ended the era of cheap credit. As a result, Eastern European currencies are falling. At the end of September, one had to pay 46 francs for 100 Polish zlotys. Today it is 30 francs. That means more and more borrowers are having problems with interest payments and repayment. So the question is what effect this has on the Swiss financial marketplace. One who sees a dark future for Switzerland is economic expert Artur P. Schmidt. He believes that the Swiss franc is in danger because of the loans in Eastern Europe.

In Poland, Hungary and Croatia, the Swiss franc has become an important foreign currency - the dollar, so to speak, of Eastern Europe. Thousands of households and businesses have franc loans. Why?

The rapid growth in many countries of Eastern Europe was stimulated through loans in Swiss francs. Swiss banks and offshore institutions loaned the local banks francs, which passed the francs onto their customers. The loans were attractive because borrowers pay interest rates much lower than required for loans in local currency.

Now, this system has been shaken?

Yes, the system has only worked as long as the exchange rate between the franc and the currencies were reasonably stable. But that is not currently the case. For example, the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty have lost over a third of their value against the Swiss franc in recent weeks. Because of the devaluations of the national currencies, the debt to Switzerland has increased by more than one-third. Many of the Eastern European countries have serious payment difficulties, and are virtually bankrupt.

What does this mean for Switzerland?

It is likely that a significant proportion of the total 200 billion U.S. dollars of Eastern European loans were issued in Swiss francs. According to a report by the Bank for International Settlements worldwide franc loans equivalent to around 675 billion U.S. dollars are in circulation - which was about 150 billion directly from Switzerland, 80 billion of Great Britain and about 430 billion U.S. dollars through offshore financial centres. How many of these loans have gone bad is not known. But even if the failure rate is 20 percent, the banks would lose a lot of money.

Is the federal government going to intervene now?

If the banks require a massive writedown of such loans, above a certain magnitude, the government must intervene. This is already happening via the Swiss National Bank. In Poland, it has made several billion francs available to the local central bank so that Polish banks can cover the loans. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank inquired by the European Central Bank whether it could borrow money in an emergency. This is a clear warning sign that the Swiss franc could be under huge devaluation pressures in the near future.

Swiss banks were too careless in their lending in Eastern Europe?

Yes, indeed. Many bankers wanted to earn a lot and neglected the risks. The National Bank is also at fault as it did not intervene. In addition, the regulator and the politicians completely failed.

What Switzerland must do now?

Now, the possible losses caused by these loans must be made transparent. Above all, all of the Eastern European risks must be fully disclosed. Together with the loan losses from UBS and Credit Suisse, the entire writedown for Switzerland could exceed the Swiss gross domestic product.

That is to say?

Switzerland, like Iceland, is threatened with a potential national bankruptcy. One consequence would be that the Swiss currency could fall massively in value — possibly even crash. Another would be that Switzerland’s credit rating would be massively downgraded. That would be a trauma for the country: Switzerland was always as a stronghold of stability. The franc could become an unstable soft currency. Then Switzerland would perhaps be forced to abandon the franc and take on the euro.

This article fills in a lot of gaps for me. Two weeks ago, I happened to catch another post in the Swiss press about the Swiss government issuing debt in U.S. Dollars. In my post “Why are the Swiss now issuing debt in U.S. Dollars? I asked an open question as to why the Swiss were issuing debt in dollars. No one knew and I had yet to hear a satisfactory answer to this question.

However, my post also pointed to central bank swap lines between Switzerland and a number of countries in Eastern Europe as a related event. The Tagesanzeiger article makes clear that these swap lines are needed due to Eastern European exposure to loans in Swiss Francs. I expect the U.S. dollar swap lines and dollar debt issuance are related - as are the Euro swap lines with the ECB - for liquidity in case of emergency.

These machinations are a testament to the continued fragility of the global financial system. The interconnectedness across currencies and countries is staggering. One domino falls and the whole global financial system is at risk.

Welcome to the dark side of globalisation.

[update - 18 Feb 2009 730PMEST]: The Berlingske Tidene, a Danish newspaper is now covering this story. Here is the link, if you speak Danish:

Schweiz truet af stats-bankerot - Berlingske Tidene

And Willem Buiter has some words to say about this crisis that are of a similar nature. He suggests capital controls are coming to Eastern Europe:

The return of capital controls - Willem Buiter

Sources

SNB schliesst Swap-Abkommen auch mit ungarischer Zentralbank - Money Cab Finance News

Der Schweiz droht der Bankrott - Tagesanzeiger

i imagine that those anti-gold people realize that the way to realize a handsome return on gold presently is to play it not only based on the u.s. dollar rise but on converting it to an undervalued currency. this obviously requires that u travel enough to make it worthwhile. and then of course u need to do something with it!

i recently went around to a few dealers and whereas a few months ago, the spread was much larger - now - they were extremely accommodating.

apparently, there is a huge sucking sound of a big player amassing dollars.

if i had to guess -

eastern europe BUT more probably switzerland on the brink of bankruptcy thanks to a bad bank - would u have thought this even yesterday?

u can try and find some news on it as it is kinda big news right now!

if u actually read carefully, part of the answer is there - in the thread @#%&*!

both cases u cite r very minor events.

i eat out always - never cook - so frequent many places regularly in many cities. of course they make mistakes sometimes or things don't work out as expected - so what.

try going there a few more times before condemning them - otherwise the world will become - a shoot from the hip place!

don't underestimate the japanese - their gov't - or the people behind the public faces.

they know exactly what they r doing.

there is a very good reason why their money is strong, and why they invested offshore.

oh, just so this is not misconstrued - i am not responding to the previous post!

ah, u do understand - that some people do not comprehend the language enough to know when they r being...

i hope i didn't give anything away...

many do, but money is an issue for all people and, i'm sure as u know the japanese - although being known for their group mentality r just as well known for their individualistic characteristics - have reasons for being elsewhere.

i see them living in other up and coming areas.

as the wording implies - they are bonuses, incentives...

THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED ONTO THE PRICE - if anything u could call it a discount WITH a forced shopping incentive!

i know because i have been tracking a number of developers for a couple of years now.

because lowering prices would anger those who have already bought THIS FIRST tactic is to maintain prices and the yearly increases (minimal) in order to make them appear to be holding steady including a bit of inflation - BUT - in order to induce customers - they are offering many THINGS that really amount to up to about 10% in incentives such as a combination of gifts, furniture, air tickets, etc.

the new place i just signed on offered this and i bought - because for location (very central) and developer (very good) i knew eventually it would be a better bet for me than keeping extra money in a bank PERIOD. even though i expect prices to come down.

i am not condoning getting into the condo market - BUT u must do ur own due diligence and see where u r and where u want to be - taking into consideration what is and what will likely happen. only u can figure this out.

by the way - i bought off plan as i trust these guys and i get regular updates. they only had a few units left to choose from as i saw the list of units available/taken, and deposits only on the master list on the computer - so i know it was not just a sales tactic. as i said before - some guys (the reputable and larger thai developers) r doing okay - enough to continue their original plans. i do not fear this project not being completed albeit it a few months behind schedule as that seems to be the norm with all their other projects. and i do not think this particular project will reduce their prices as they do not really have many units left and what is left is not a burden on the project. and i actually think it is not a bad deal when i consider my options.

going forward, i think even this developer, based on the way the market is going will be looking to start new projects with a lower cost per from what i have gathered.

so re: the article - not really lowering the price but more trying to sell using incentives.

however, i do see some projects lowering their prices!

1 and 2 r the same

it is not conventional thought and not what u will read in the papers but i can say fairly confidently THAT it is a deliberate act by those in control to reduce the ##### ######.

just think of all those bailouts and what they r really doing - where is it going? or is it just mopping things up so that the excess is being eliminated from the system and thus there is less to go around and since we have reached our mathematical limits on many levels - just think about this for a minute and then ask urself - what the solution is?? or better yet - is there a solution???

well there is a solution - but it is painful - so i think it will be a natural default after many aborted attempts. it is possible to inflate the bubble again for a little while longer BUT, BUT, (see above) it is a deliberate attempt to ...

when u can figure this out - then u will know what u have to do!

i'll make it easier for u - WHAT WAS THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE recessions/depression IN EVERY CASE?

i think my ten year olds would be able to answer this one!

waiting

as i am online now...

now, now - why can't u answer a SIMPLE question - my query above - since u have tried to tell everyone here how u r CONVINCED that u KNOW where the markets r headed.

one would think someone who has an understanding of the markets can relate to my simple query?

how can we be convinced u know anything about stocks, condos when u don;t understand simple economics??

that response took u quite a long time.

i dare not ask another question as it might make u have a stroke!

cheap entertainment tonight?