shochu

don't discount people who make a living trading from a cart too quickly. in manhattan, those hot dog guys have to pay close to a mil. for the right to use the sidewalk in the best locations.

i know of people who make about 5G's a month and can afford to hire people to do the work while they just come by and keep an eye on them. obviously it has to be a high traffic area.

i also read last year of a women in isaan who sold bbq field rats from a busy roadside and if memory serves me correctly - she said she made about 40000 baht a week.

RE: condos,

those marketed to the locals in good locations are still doing okay - they have the necessary numbers to start the projects. one thing they are probably counting on is this market to maintain the requisite numbers to get projects off the ground and to capitalize on the cheaper costs and to profit as the economy improves eventually. they have up til now successfully completed a number of projects - so are sitting on enough cash to ride this out - and they have followed most of the golden rules about location, targeted for the local middle class market, etc. and many other factors all favor a gamble in this direction. better than money sitting sitting in a bank - yes - u can quote me on this!

in rreply to the op's topic,

I THINK NOT!

50-60% equates to sold out for you?

yes, some projects are doing well, in particular - ideo - but most of the best selling projects are in the 2-4 million range. i have been pounding the pavement for the past two weeks and will be signing on a new place next week.

edited to address the first part of this to livinginexile

my perspective is

if he cared and was serious - he would be concerned and never let this get to where it is now - essentially he would care about your feelings.

it is a move of a guy who is in a comfort relationship and most probably on the lookout for something better.

this is coming from a guy who is not interested in getting married and been in enough relationships to know this situation.

i wonder if people really like it here, or it is just a default position.

i rarely ever see westerners looking happy, except, of course, in the bars when they are in the company of people they know. the lists many have made are all good and agreeable, but still, when i am about town i see westerners alone and looking lonely, or with their significant others and although some are happy, most do not seem so - just observations.

the urgency with which this past event occurred had to do with the push to change the constitution which in effect would have been the catalyst for an eventual return of a certain square one.

this square one is backed by some powerful western influence and these forces want him in power, hence much of these friendly media are slanted in such a way.

there are times when a democracy is not beneficial, particularly when a country is maturing, in particular, when the majority of the populace is what we can term not educated beyond the level of developed. as an example, most of you probably do not know that some of the most developed countries in the world are really not democracies, although most believe them to be, such as japan, and another i will not name but is the cause of the financial crisis. they are on the surface for all intense purposes masquerading as democracies, but are really .... well i won't say!

the common misnomer that the poorer regions are not able to vote that is often quoted is not really adequately represented. more accurate is, they are not voting in the best interests of a country, but more in their own interests (try short term gains). however much you may dislike the bangkok clan, they are really the driving force behind much of the development of the the country as a major tourist destination and manufacturing hub. and they have also benefited the most. it is no secret or elusive theory why they are considered elitist - perhaps misrepresented by those that have not benefited as much - but then you get what you put into it. they worked for it thus they have earned it.

a country like LOS needs a strong hand to guide it. and they have a number of wealthy families, like every country in the world without exception, that to a large extent control the ins and outs. (some countries are not ready for full democracy. just look around for examples in everyday life whereby people do not obey the simplest of laws or will readily take advantage of a situation if they believe they will get away with it, or if they think no one is watching). how benevolent they are to change and also how much a working class becomes educated (this being key) will determine how much more equality will prevail over time. is it a wonder that during times of upheaval, the educated class are hunted down and eliminated. i will not get into the details of examples as i do not have the time, but clear examples are available by studying the two example countries i give above.

there is small game ongoing whereby the stakes are up for grabs, as they are in other parts of the world at present. we have entered interesting times as i have repeated said. the one worry i have, is that these small conflicts will lead to a much larger conflict to hide the truth of the damage.

we are all pawns in this game - so either act accordingly or just try to enjoy what you have!

it does not matter when the airport opens. this issue - first and foremost - which is at a crossroads needs to be resolved - obviously, the sooner the better.

to complain because we have been inconvenienced is understandable but to want this issue resolved quickly only because we have been inconvenienced is asking too much.

if anything, i respect the thais more now because they have stayed true to their cause AND because there was very little violence- and not surprisingly because they are thai, but surprisingly because they are human - anytime humans gather in demonstrations, violence occurs - just think about victory celebrations where the winning team fans will ravage a downtown area because they are happy. yes because they are happy. there was some violence, but who was really behind it. do you guys know if they were instigating it, or just responding to it, or trying to protect their group, or maybe even a set up to make them look bad in the eyes of the people.

it is easy for us to just leave if there were to be a serious crisis, but for the many thais, they can not - so - unless you are 100% committed to being here thick and thin - go whine somewhere else.

it would not have come to this if a certain square one had not been instigating things from sidelines.

flights get canceled all the time because of weather delays, sometimes for a week or more if there is a hurricane/typhoon/tsunami. this issue needs to be resolved and it is a process of a maturing country. many countries took this route - just give it a chance.

by the way, i am scheduled to fly to bangkok soon, but if i have to change my plans - so be it. not a big issue. i would think a country at a pivotal point in its maturity is a bit more important than an individuals needs.

in closing, i would like to add, many have criticized this country for many reasons. but since we are in the midst of an economic crisis, which most of you were laughing off as just another market slump soon to be a good buying opportunity, lets not forget some of the things LOS did to control their market like institute capital controls (which many of you howled was blasphemy) which is now limiting the impact of the crisis. LOS will not escape without damage, but they have fared well thus far and are in a better shape than many other countries i know. i do not have rose colored specs. i see things as they are. i also criticize things as well - such as the housing market which i see to be too expensive. i have faith in this country to pull through in the end and mature into a much better country. we may well see some more chaos in the near future, but that rests squarely with the square one. AND the airport will open when ever it does and not sooner!

rather than getting in a pissing contest - if you are not interested in trying - why bother responding.

all i did was raise a point for those who were interested in furthering their queries. i was merely trying to point out that what one sees is not really descriptive of what is actually happening - or more aptly will happen.

you obviously - for whatever reasons - choose to try to rationalize your lack of comprehension by making a comment that makes you feel better - good for you - i hope you do feel better.

AND life goes on...

if you can not muster the energy to even try then too bad. nothing in life is free.

NO i am not talking discretionary items as i have stated SO why do you bring it up. perhaps i am asking you to not consider it because it will be easier to comprehend. have you ever thought that the term deflation is a very convenient and extremely simplified term, AND what i am asking YOU to do is to see the much larger ramifications behind the condition.

you also seem to have missed the point of my queries - all semantics or just a different perspective.

the purpose of writing is to COMMUNICATE your point

according to what you want

gold is 15/20% over spot price IF YOU CAN FIND IT meaning expect to pay close to $1000u.s.

there is a dealer in MBK who regularly has some coins.

its pretty plain and simple and clear and in english - perhaps you just do not have the faculty to grasp the subject matter as it requires thinking ouside of the cirlce or box if that makes you feel better.

i'm actually asking YOU do do something as opposed YOU just reading and commenting as YOU have been!

i was hoping you guys would see it from a different angle/interpretation - which would then make you see some other things and then eventually you would be able to start putting more things together and viola - then you would know what is REALLY happening and then would be able to make plans. interpretation being the magic word.

oh well - just continue to see your money/investment/etc. lose value

just a wee question - NOT when there is a credit contraction and stores slash/reduce prices to offload - HAVE A SALE - oh gee - can that be called deflation too - BUT - only when there is a recession BUT not when it is just getting rid of stock from an end of season sale or last years items to make way for new stock?

also, when prices drop along with the value of purchasing power - is that also called deflation? lets remember, i have stated i am not discussing bubbled items - so lets talk everyday items here. will you wait a few weeks for that gallon of milk to drop in price, or wait a few weeks to use the car hoping the gas price drops??

guys - please re-read what i have written above!!!

although i do not want to because it will only detract from and thus mislead from the true path - i should qualify my statement above by saying - not things that are bubbled up! talking about basics here. we think a certain way only because it is convenient and expected. it makes sense although it does not really address the situation. we are focusing on something that is a byproduct - but not the cause, or should i say the reason and thus the problem. please think of how the system works and numbers!

jing,

i do not think i can be any clearer in meaning - i think you understand well enough - perhaps you just do not want to accept/acknowledge it, or you just want me to do as i expected you to - sorry!!

i expected as much coming from you

-PLEASE READ BETWEEN THE LINES!-

a mainstream concept of deflation - that everyone waits to purchase something assuming that the price will decline. why is it that we believe such thought? because we hear it enough - ah yes - that - yes - say it enough and people believe it. sorry - but wrong - or shall i say a distorted or perhaps better for you to understand - a very simplified concept but still not accurate in the end.

please think about it a little. it is quite easy if you discard the repetition of thought.

have you ever waited to buy something EXPECTING it to get cheaper?

it is really a numbers game. think outside the circle.

if u want to know what i have done - just go through my past posts and i have mentioned what i have done and along the way i have also given subtle hints at what was a good play.

to date i now hold two forms of investment that i have cashed out with my initial investment thus leaving me holding profit in these two investment vehicles. the first one was a sure thing and the second one was an almost sure thing contingent on everything coming together - and they have. thus i am up this year - i won't say how much since many are down at this point in time and will probably continue to lose with respect to where i see things going.

one thing i will mention - which i have in the past - is i spend a chunk on things i collect and these have all gone up in value and will only continue to go up and since i enjoy having them i hope to never be in a position to have to sell them. like i have said all along - i do not want to be holding too much currency when this things works its way through - just enough to keep me in the things i need and enjoy AND enough to tide me over in the event of a banking holiday.

where do i see things going - not where many have been speculating on this board!

In the 8 year period since Jan2001:

Gold UP............+171%

Real Estate.........- 8%

Dow down............-27%

S&P500 down.........-41%

Year to date performance as of 11/20/08:

Gold down...........-12%

Dow down............-40% -- 3 times worse than gold

S&P500 down.........-45% -- 4 times worse than gold

Real Estate.........-58% -- 5 times worse than gold

spidy,

every country has followed the same route to prosperity - that is - they have all used protectionism to grow their industries. the u.s. had some of the worst tariffs in history - check your facts.

naam,

will u be posting while u r being operated on??

vic,

how's the convenience store job going???

and to the latter two saints,

for such investment gurus, r u guys not bleeding money right now from u r predictions or r they just pipe dreams along with the other pipe dreams u guys live here on TV. for two guys that do so well, it is interesting the two of u should spend most of your time on a resource that is so inexpensive???

oh, just to show u i am a good sport :D :D

most people do not prefer LOS over first world countries. some do - like people here on TV. but i suspest some choose it as a consolation prize depending on their circumstances and their desires, while others do make it their preferred choice.

i prefer to live in a developed country. if i had a choice i would retire in japan.

BUT i love coming to LOS to visit for extended periods of time - but always look forward to going home. if anything, i spend most of the colder months in LOS if time permits (getting older). the taxi ride in is exhilirating - all the familiar things, sounds, smells, music on the radio - almost like watching the scene from cruises collateral - BUT - and this is a big _BUT_ i get out and go back to what i call home.

LOS is good in spurts and has a nice edge to it - but i would not want to work here and deal with the daily grind of traffic, weather, etc. and the country side is just that - country - and gets old very fast. bangkok is good because it is a great city with all the things that good cities have - variety and enough size to make it interesting - but there are better cities to live in, or retire in where life is much better in terms of level of comfort, ease of life, etc.

i get exactly what i want from this place and ask for nothing more. i do not have delusions about the place or expect more than it can give!

martin armstrong has one up on him - on everyone for that matter.

he is the best of the best - or should that read the only one who has accurately called the markets.

he was jailed because he refused to give up his formula. great world we live in when you figure out how the game is played - they trump up charges and lock you up!

most - 99% - lack morals and to a lesser degree honesty - from my experience.

example - a good friend i grew up with now living in singapore who was always honest and sincere and morally upstanding - now married and because of work that takes him all over the asian region - along with EVERY married expat i know - does the night moves when out of town or thier wives are out of town, and then go back to their lives/wives.

this doesn't happen occasionally - but regularly enough to say always. it is a bit sad from my point of view. i would just choose to stay single or at least get divorced if i wanted to play the night moves so often.

many come out here with good intentions and much better ideals - but eventually ALL go the way of the locals.

well - let me add, there are some people out here with good ideals and who do not do the night moves, but in my experience, and i know a lot of people out here, i know none that do not slowly rot from the inside out. on the surface they look normal, but when out drinking it is obvious in the conversations. most of my friends are upper level management/executives. these guys have a good life and choose their lifestyle - it is what they want! they are living the boys life into mid-life and beyond

so before i get an earful, just take calm in your assertions in that you are not a part of my circle - so YOU could very well be an upright and outstanding individual

go to the thai mint where they officially sell commemorative coins - usually in silver.

it used to be near kao san BUT i believe they have now moved.

just go in to a bank and ask a manager where the new place is.

most bank have staff/managers that speak good english.

you guys are focusing too much on the specifics - but missing the larger picture.

as some have already stated - the entire economy is built on debt. the expansion of debt equals the expansion of money in the system and in order for a capitalist system to function - there must be a continual growth of debt. and as someone mentioned - the populations of the developed western nations are shrinking and importantly - they are in a replacement mode for goods - which equals - NOW.

these collapses are an easy way for the reneging of obligations and if anyone has ever been in a position of hiring/firing - well this makes it bloody easy and they get no compensation as they carry their boxes out.

as i stated a couple of years ago - this is the equalizing where most western countries will have to come down much more than developing countries will move up. kiss your pensions good bye.

by the way someone said - hey ain't buffet smart and he is putting his money into the market. well what he is not making public is that he has taken his money out of bonds.

i do believe the smaller banks have no problems because they were acting like banks should unlike the larger ones that were not. wamu was a deliberate act upon a sound bank.

the reason the us dollar is moving up is because everyone needs to pay their obligations in dollars as have many funds who have had to unwind their gold positions. try locating gold for purchase if you can.

there are some interesting developments taking place for those that are aware and when these events play out - you better hope you are in.

i've been traveling quite a bit lately.

AND you would not believe the empty buildings - both residential and commercial everywhere in major cites.

ALSO, am hearing major projects in major cities being put on hold indefitnitely as they can not get funding. i am not talking about just any projects, but MAJOR PROJECTS with big names attached. am seeing almost complete buildings standing still. unbelievable!

this is only going to get worse.

and if the mayor of london is begging the chinese to give them money in lieu of better educational ties (not to be paid back) for the olympics projects - one has to go uhmmmm...

edited to make it thai related - i can not believe some posters here in LOS are saying things are going well still!

as the op stated - there really is no way out of this mess - except to digitally print money and they are.

i would not want to be in western currencies right now BUT three in particular- pound, dollar , euro.