shochu

the perfect breakup - no such thing -unless u mean the easiest way out for u!

ur title says it all no matter how u want it to be construed - so either do the right thing - which is - in los - if u understand things here - irregardless of what her background is - as u have lived with her - help her to get back on her feet.

as i expected. come on a hard sell like u can do better than this!

PLEASE LEAVE the advice on condos in bangers to people who do not have a stake in parting innocent retirees with their investments!!

may i suggest taking the train there and then taking the minibus back as it is easy this way and also adds to the whole adventure of discovery. as suggested every decent hotel has a minibus back.

how exactly do u come up with this figure?

can offer us some criteria??

i'm sorry but i can't help but be amused as to what ur answer will be as i already have a response waiting!

zorro,

i wonder if u really understand how the economy works?

i will ask u a simple question - WHAT IS THE SINGLE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN EVERY RECESSION/DEPRESSION??

if u don;t know the answer - i offer clues in past posts

peaceblondie offers probably the most seasoned advice about mexico. he has written quite extensively about it in the past. just ask him some more direct questions and i am sure he will be helpful.

i used to go across the border when i was younger because my family used to have a place in south cali where i spent some summers. i also have friends and classmates from mexico city. the things i heard from them and my friends who have lived and spent much time there were not to be taken lightly. visiting there and living there r two different things. if u come under the radar then u will become a victim and things will get more difficult there in time.

but i wonder what is the reason for ur wanting to go there?

1) u fear problems in los

2) money issues when work slows

3) wanting to be near family

let me offer some advice

if things happen as i expect - u will want to avoid being in or near the u.s. as things will spill over the border. what r the chances. i am very pragmatic and i see a slightly more than 50% chance of things as i expect.

AND u don't remember me - what were all those things u whispered in my ear - sweet nothings?

i can offer a little help with spain.

if ur looking for a beautiful place - san sebastion

if ur looking for a great place for everything u want - barcelona. if has an okay beach, better beaches on nearby islands. i think u would do well there even though spain will suffer a lot with the economy. i'm sure rent will be coming down. i'm sure u can find some kind of work there if u really try. great nightlife, great people. and some crime - but since u look like u could be spanish - no probs.

midas,

i can not give u a definitive answer as i never really looked into it. ur answer seems quite reasonable. based on my experience and i wrote about this in the past - about how similar condos had a large variance in prices - i would say it could be two possible reasons: 1) someone is desperately trying to sell more than the other due to many reasons, (only paid deposit, needs money, lost job, etc.) or 2) one bought at pre-sale and the other bought later or from a flipper and for some reason both are trying to sell (due to need or profit). mind u, some people r too expectant on inflated prices.

i think u will start seeing more of these discrepancies in time as the realization hits that things are only just beginning to slow and will remain this way for an extended time and many of the renters for these condos do not materialize as many can not afford to just leave these units empty while some can.

what is real, is that commerce is coming to a grinding halt. i recently heard that some ships are being partly filled with things and sail out to the sea and anchor for a week and then come back with the same product but saying it comes from another country. i guess this is the small tick up in bdi numbers. thailand being very dependant on trade will suffer quite a bit and what most do not realize or want to see here is that this will mean many offices downsizing, which means less bodies for the condos. there was a much hushed internal mesage from a large japanese manufacturer that ordered their employees to send their families home from all overseas locations except singapore. and i have heard that many japanese co's here in thaialnd have also ordered their employees back. perhaps this is a possible explanation to the above.

jcon,

i don't know whether u r aware of how wealthy families' finances work. do u know these families intimate cash flow numbers? perhaps u do - i don't know. many wealthy families do not have a lot of cash in bank - well maybe a few mil here and there but when u consider their lifestyles, it is not a whole lot of money. yes they can buy a few condos here and there, but generally they have to move money/assets around constantly, or cash or sell an asset. it is not like they have wads of money at their disposal. most have a large company that they kinda use as a bank and can also be used to secure capital. how do i know - well i work for wealthy families. some of my clients own dozens of large buildings in major cities. there are families like this in every major city and sure they have money and expensive houses and can buy as many nice cars as they want - but one major hit on their assets will shake their other assets up either a bit or a lot - unless of course they are very cash rich and there arn't a whole lot of people like that around as most of the money is not in a ready cash form but more products - some more liquid than others.

zorro,

try not to shit ur pants in a few months time!

mommy,

u r asute and have figured out that he and the others r working as a team!

it is obvious the market creepers r out n force. r u guys that desperate. one goes - another comes and some play the interested buyer with suggestions.

pitiful!!!!

actually, most of the young thai professionals buying into the condo market have salaries starting at 20,000 and many have many times this. many have saved a lot of money since they don't have much expenses since everthing was/is pretty much paid for by the family except their indulgences.

i am now starting to see condos (practically similar) in the same building with huge variances in prices - 6mil+ and 4 mil+ in the thonglor area.

if u have been following the recent - last 2/3 years of why the condo market in the city has become such a hit - well, high fuel prices made young urban professionals wonder why they were spending money on a car - THAT THEY WERE PAYING LOANS ON - and spending so much time in traffic. well, some savy developers decided to market condos aimed at this group with a lifestyle marketing focus. it worked. they could get for a little more than the cost of a car (or similar further out) a lifestyle condo and be near the action - where they work, hang out and ....

sorry to contradict ur assertion - but many - i would wager most (meaning more than 50%) are financed - since instead of cars they opted for condos. go to any of these sales offices and all their literature is based on financing with options on the term.

nice try - reads like an industry player trying not to.

midas,

fully agree - while the segment for local young urban professionals of some developers is doing well still - i would agree - that most directed at the foreign market will take a hit - the question being how severe a hit - enough to stall/stop the project?

lets not forget los is a manufacturing based economy for much of its growth and well, bdi index which is probably the most accurate and shows some lag time suggest los with a hefty portion of its growth tied directly to this index will suffer for a longER term than most here think. this is not a stimulus package kind of get well problem - sorry - it is a realignment of trade, consumers, etc.

i am not a doom and gloom merchant - more of a realist trying to impart more objective data so others can do as they must.

AND as some o fthese young professionals start losing their jobs, this will affect the finances of their larger household (family including mom and dad). u can already see some trying to get out of their deposits - check prakard.

quiksilva,

in ur own words - the biggest bubble - so it will take a long time!

PLEASE show me where i have flip flopped. u seem so ready to accuse me but where is the evidence. anyone can google shiller and check his wicki site which states the work he is most famous for regarding property. WHY don't u respond to my queries?? INSTEAD of making false accusations.

u r at every opportunity trying to hype the market. and in answer to how a simple statement can uptick the market - well all it takes is one report, or one news item like an investor buying in to make a killing in a market. i know - i have seen it, have experienced it. the fact that u don;t know this or would respond in such a manner shows ur naivette and inexpereince.

again a bit of info about me - i have to deal with guys like u often, and know similar people in most of the major real estate firms. sorry have enver worked with ur firm - as they are not really a big player as far as i am concerend - u see - i work on the owners behalf - and regularly have to dismiss ur industry repeorts with my own reports. i often get angry questions from guys like u, and reply that my engineers have made them and ask them what they want to contest - silence with anger on their faces. i generally get a much angrier phone call later in the day. so what am i trying to say - well - u guys make reports like any salemen.

i know my stuff in this industry better than u do - well speculating hear - but feel comfortable with it. perhaps u know thai commercial better than i do - but i know buildings and finance, and how the market works.

so save me the bullshit - U KNOW EXACTLY WHAT U WERE TRYING TO DO - and it was LAME! A SALEMAN IS ALWAYS A SALEMAN!! lame....

PKRV,

TIME TO PUT AWAY THE POM POMS and i said the uniform was for ur better half - NOT U!

midas,

the mortgage rejections were based on discussions with sales people.

in regards to second hand - do not know as this was an area i was planning to research in the future.

midas,

there are more rejections of mortgages happening now to thais from what i hear - not surprising

quicksilva,

when i said a distortion, it was meant as in not giving a clear picture of his work since it is out of context - as i stated above

no data on speculators. perhaps u need to spend more time doing research. if u got out a bit more and asked around u would get some more info.

the place i just signed on told me there were about 20% specs. data out now says 10-15%. during the 97 crisis, correct me if i am wrong, but there were about double this number.

quiksilva,

go back in the post and see why i am replying in this manner to u. i treat people the way they deserve to be treated. u took a swipe at me in the hopes of proving me wrong with a false assertion - so please show me where i flip flopped. AND IT WAS EXTREMELY OBVIOUS WHAT YOUR INTENT WAS WITH THAT GRAPH! information is easily taken out out of context to mislead. perhpas u can show us the graph that is more indicative of his findings that he is famous for along with his partner - yes - that being the key - if u r not trying to mislead here!

midas,

the market here is evolving into a more mature market - meaning it is moving away from what most people know of this market. this is a normal process of any developing market as there are generally common paths most economies follow in order to GROW - yes - that being the key word here. there is not too much variance from this. growth requires specific criteria and if u study any maturing market it should give u the info u want. i know there are some minor variances - but generally in order for an economy to fully develop, they rely on the input of similar conditions - so this is not something esoteric and difficult to ascertain.

ur assertion of the lower priced condos i believe are correct. generally young professionals with mortgages, as well as parental support. i focus more on the local market - meaning this segment, so i will refrain from commenting on the other end.

i know from what i see, this market , from some developers is still moving well. i totally disagree when some posters say, prices never come down and it is mostly cash transactions.

BUT - we are in uncharted territory - so this time could set a precedence to look back on.

as a rule, i only participate in the market at the local level and steer clear of those directed at outsiders.

shiller is well known for postulating factually that housing values really do not continually go up taking into consideration the ups and downs, they maintain a mean average that really says - they are not the product everyone thinks they are. he is especially famous for having highlighted this.

ur graph - on the other hand was clearly a distortion of his work. did u really have to paste it up on an excel sheet - waaaaaaaaaaa!

u can not redeem ur self after this blatant con job at trying to make it look like housing always goes up taking into consderation the ups and downs- so - for ur industry - it is a win win situation. it was just so bad i couldn't believe someone would try. thanks - u really opened my eyes to how desperate sales people can get.

his work also says this is the mother of all housing bubbles. so when r things gonna get better there inside man? if we take ur advice - then second half of this year - makes u feel good thinking about it doesn't it?

i believe i have offered more concrete info regarding housing here in los than u have ever offered - in terms of where the market is and is heading.

i also corrected u when u said there was so much middle east money as they were cash rich at the moment. i told you they were were on the verge of a bust and guess what - many of their projects are on hold and they are in the hole. please tell me why ur industry experts only found this out when they saw it on cnn, or bbc? how does ur office actually do its research. is it a feel good kind of thing where u guys sit around and say - okay , this is what we are gonna say because this is what we need to happen! great research methods. excuse me if i choose to rely on my own research as i don't have much confidence in salesmen.

u say there are many people - wait, wait - 1000's of large buyers inquiring. come on - u r desperate. whenever there is a downturn, people always look around to see and possibly gain some insight into what is happening. many people who have nothing to do r also trying to look busy. r u an amateur or what?

there are clear reports coming out that commercial real estate is not moving and everyone is waiting for bargains which mean prices will be heading lower.

u gain by helping ur industry as this is a confidence game and one area uptick will propel another area uptick.

and please show me where i flip flop in my posts??

quicksilva,

we both know u presented his work in a manner that distorts his work. i know his work very well and what i said was essentially what he says regarding housing.

anyone here can research his work and come to the same conclusion - BUT - what it does show is ur true colors and how desperate u are!

extremely pathetic on ur part to try and mislead people in that manner! why don't u show his work like he would have wanted people to see!!

sad, sad, sad!!!

ur manner of trying to downplay his work and highlight your industries speak volumes. please remember, i never mentioned his name back yonders WONDERING IF U WOULD as a sort of test to see where u stand. u obviously did not want too many people to know about his work - as u have shown - since it works against ur industries profits. the posts - mine - yours - speak for themselves.

get real - your mantra of trying to rise above the other industry players to try and be MORE than THEM was ur sales speech.

pkrv,

how does one get to the truer nature of the market when there are so many here on tv plying their trade. if i have wrongly insinuated anything towards u - then u have my apologies. and there is nothing wrong with keeping a set of pom poms , and a school uniform can add to the ensemble - for the other party of course!

in the post today 100,000 unsold condos as of the end of 2008.

50,000 coming on line

rough numbers

pkrv,

i think i have offered more accurate info here than most others have regarding the market and real estate

what quiksilva did today, was reveal HIS true intentions. his graph was the biggest con job as misconstruing info i have ever come across. he has only really offered tidbits of info - ever, and only offered market info. after someone else has first mentioned it, or there was evidence of it in print.

do i ever push the envelope. well - i know where the economy and the markets are headed.

pkrv - a question - where do u keep ur pom poms?

u know what - i need to add something

quicksilva ,

that graph is LAME

u and i know that - that graph does NO JUSTICE to his research.

now i know u are desperate!!!!!!

quiksilva,

are u sure ur not making things up?

show me in a past post where i said there are no boom and bust cycles. i believe - no - i know for a fact - that i have always said, there were - but - OVER A LONG PERIOD it reverts back to a mean which is really not much growth unless one gets in at the low and gets out at the high- just as i have stated above. and lets not forget to add inflation, upkeep and if u want me to add more property taxes. i have stated all these a couple of years ago.

u r gonna have to make a better reply if u want to be taken seriously and frankly, i expect more from someone in the industry.

j'm sure u can not expect us to actually take internal reports made by industry so called experts to be more accurate than the most respected economist in the field. and we both know that we can find the appropriate graph from him to either cloud or more accurately provide the info.

just so u know - i do get paid to consult on these matters and maybe u once knew more about the local market, but i would say my research skills are second to none and my research in the local market over the last two years gives me a pretty good insight into these markets. everything i have stated regarding the economy, currency plays and the local housing markets have come to pass, whereas all the literature from ur so called experts have been updated with quotidian reports trying to downplay the direction of the industry which also contradict their earlier statements.

don't blame me if i don't take ur indsutry reports too seriously.

just check my past posts and it speaks for itself!

and the fact i have not been affected by the downturn and am still bringing in the same returns as past years speaks volumes.

quicksilva,

i wonder if u ever found the ivy league prof i mentioned in the past who is - well - the man when it comes to housing. his name is shiller and he is part of a team shiller case - and they do housing studies.

as i mentioned before, they point out how housing over the past couple of hundred years shows only a slight increase in value to the point we can safely say is flat. however, this does not consider the depreciating currency and the cost for upkeep. so it is safe to say - housing does not go up in value - it only does a cycle of boom and bust so if u can catch it at the bottom, then u can profit at the top - that is if u want to.

this housing bubble is - how shall i say it - along with the world economy - the biggest ????? the modern economy has ever experienced and will go down as the greater depression when the future generations talk about it.

the simplest way i can explain what is happening without giving away the candy store so to speak is - it's a numbers game!

and contrary to what many people have said repeated her on tv - there were a lot of firesales during the 97 crisis. we didn't get too much info back then because the internet was not as widely prevalent back then.

as mentioned by titi - hua hin or koh samet

i did a tour of the beaches this trip and can say that koh samet has one of the best beaches in thailand - much better than anything u will find in the south - well except for the one that has no inhabitants or accommodation or anything in the east except for the one that has just one resort across from a larger island.

whyy koh samet - because if u look - u can still find a good beach with nice sand and very few people and contrary to what some will say - very reasonably priced compared to the other beaches AND it is only 3 to 3.5 hours by bus from bangers or if u take a taxi 2 to 2,5 hours then speedboat - 10 minutes to ur personal beach of choice.

but finding an apt. will be better in hua hin.

there are a large number of FINISHED units looking for buyers.

many more - although less than previous years - coming on line soon.

AND many, many, many units bought on speculation looking for buyers.

i don't have exact numbers and i am too busy to find the numbers BUT if u can peruse the papers u will find more concrete numbers. i can't recall the exact figures as i have gone over quite a bit of literature recently - but - i do recall thinking the numbers were quite high and getting higher. MUCH MORE higher than the 20,000 figure above.